Trade Diaz traded to Vancouver for Weise

[JoeLassister]

This is an extremely weak straw man. No one gives up a goal 100% of the time they're defending (and Diaz certainly doesn't).

But you get my point do you ?

If the guy who always defends keep players along the boards take weak shots, it's better than a guy who defends 20% of the time, but let opponents shoot from the slot...

My straw is weak, but you still can make stats say what you want them to say at some point.

[Neech]

But you get my point do you ?

If the guy who always defends keep players along the boards take weak shots, it's better than a guy who defends 20% of the time, but let opponents shoot from the slot...

My straw is weak, but you still can make stats say what you want them to say at some point.

Stats could prove your point: if there was a weaker goal differential with Diaz on the ice than Murray. Unfortunately it's the other way around: with Diaz better able to skate or pass the puck out the defensive zone, the Habs score more goals with him on ice.

I think this scenario of a guy who can't clear the puck and can't do anything on offense but keeps the puck along the boards (which is pretty much what we have in Murray) is an effective PK guy, but not good 5 on 5. I'd take Murray over Diaz every day down a man, but at 5 on 5 we sacrifice way too much puck movement.

[Lovett's Magnatones]

The myth of the tough stay at home defenceman....

http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/nhl/habs-bought-into-a-myth-when-they-dealt-diaz/

As for those who dismiss this as just "fancy stats"... .tell it to Dave Tippett.

So what has Dave Tippett ever won?

Or Billy Beane?

Tippetts fancy stat is passes before shots, he discusses it in an old ESPN article.

I actually have a fancy stat in my call center that gives salesmen a rating based not only on sales, but how efficiently they use their time, and how often they get add on sales. Am I a genius? No. Managers create their own metrics, there's nothing new about that. Or impressive. There's also a much easier way for me to determine "the top salesman." I look and see who has the most sales.

[illWill]

Let's just have a team full of Diaz's so we can move the puck out of our zone effectively because nothing else matters.

[Commandant]

These stats are not telling the results of these plays.

If the players who only defends 20% of the time ends up giving up a goal 100% of this 20%, then I prefer the guy who's defending all the time without giving up a goal all the time...

The stats indicate that Murray gives up more goals per minute played than Diaz.

Oh and Diaz plays tougher competition.

So what has Dave Tippett ever won?

Or Billy Beane?

Tippetts fancy stat is passes before shots, he discusses it in an old ESPN article.

I actually have a fancy stat in my call center that gives salesmen a rating based not only on sales, but how efficiently they use their time, and how often they get add on sales. Am I a genius? No. Managers create their own metrics, there's nothing new about that. Or impressive. There's also a much easier way for me to determine "the top salesman." I look and see who has the most sales.

I take Dave Tippett and Billy Beane's opinions over message board posters.... they've won more than most of us discussing here, and they've won more than those who say stats don't matter on message boards.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

To be fair, that wasn't a stat by Tippett really. He was trying to make a comparison. He had no real numbers to go by. He was really just saying, "This guy was more effective than that guy"

[Lovett's Magnatones]

The stats indicate that Murray gives up more goals per minute played than Diaz.

Oh and Diaz plays tougher competition.

I take Dave Tippett and Billy Beane's opinions over message board posters.... they've won more than most of us discussing here, and they've won more than those who say stats don't matter on message boards.

How's your boy Diaz looking tonight?

I guess the fact that I stare at stats for half my life makes my opinion useless since it contradicts your viewpoint.

[Commandant]

How's your boy Diaz looking tonight?

I guess the fact that I stare at stats for half my life makes my opinion useless since it contradicts your viewpoint.

You stare at sales stats..... thats a little different from what tippett and beane do.

There is a reason 80% of NHL teams now have someone analyzing advanced stats. Because they have value.

Are they the be all and end all? No, you still have to eyeball scout too. But if NHL teams recognize they have value, then I'm fine with them. No amount of message board posters saying "stats, schmats" is going to convince me that they are useless.

Dismissing them completely and as having no value is a very ignorant viewpoint IMO.

[DON]

I am a Murray fan, he makes me laugh often and it is the entertainment industry isn't it?

[Lovett's Magnatones]

You stare at sales stats..... thats a little different from what tippett and beane do.

There is a reason 80% of NHL teams now have someone analyzing advanced stats. Because they have value.

Are they the be all and end all? No, you still have to eyeball scout too. But if NHL teams recognize they have value, then I'm fine with them. No amount of message board posters saying "stats, schmats" is going to convince me that they are useless.

Dismissing them completely and as having no value is a very ignorant viewpoint IMO.

That's fair.

I guess what would be useful is hearing more about what different decisions there are and how to arrive at them through advanced stats. Unfortunately, the discourse surrounding advanced stats starts and ends with Douglas Murray.

What I wonder, is if advanced stats are being studied by 80% of the league, why isn't there a bidding war for Justin Williams? Top possession player, reasonable salary etc. Shouldn't he be hotter than Rick Nash two years ago if Corsi is a magic elixir of indomitable success? Or do the GMs come to the conclusion I do down in Florida about Brad Boyes and Tom Gilbert, which is that Gilbert is playing with Campbell this year, and Boyes shoots the puck every time it's on his stick?

[Neech]

Lovett, you seem incapable of moderation. No one here claims stats are a 'magic elixir', and your assessments of those Florida players are probably correct. That they are a useful tool for understanding the game and players' effectiveness along with classic scouting is what we're arguing. They should neither obscure traditional player evaluation nor be ignored.

[Lovett's Magnatones]

Lovett, you seem incapable of moderation. No one here claims stats are a 'magic elixir', and your assessments of those Florida players are probably correct. That they are a useful tool for understanding the game and players' effectiveness along with classic scouting is what we're arguing. They should neither obscure traditional player evaluation nor be ignored.

No, definitely not here the posters, but even DownGoesBrown and Puck Daddy are jumping on the bandwagon. I can handle a few articles a week on the subject, but advanced stats are so "in your face" these days.

[Neech]

No, definitely not here the posters, but even DownGoesBrown and Puck Daddy are jumping on the bandwagon. I can handle a few articles a week on the subject, but advanced stats are so "in your face" these days.

EOTP definitely goes overboard with their stats. Berkshire blocked me on twitter (along with calling me dumb) when I said he was as predictable as Sean Hannity, and as slavishly devoted to the party line (he said that both goals tonight were the fault of Murray... wha?). I don't know if DGB or others are kool-aid drinkers on that level, but it would be best to get used to these stats rather than resisting them. They're here to stay and they'll get more sophisticated as they become more mainstream. And they ARE useful, if not the sacred truth that some take them to be.

[Commandant]

EOTP definitely goes overboard with their stats. Berkshire blocked me on twitter (along with calling me dumb) when I said he was as predictable as Sean Hannity, and as slavishly devoted to the party line (he said that both goals tonight were the fault of Murray... wha?). I don't know if DGB or others are kool-aid drinkers on that level, but it would be best to get used to these stats rather than resisting them. They're here to stay and they'll get more sophisticated as they become more mainstream. And they ARE useful, if not the sacred truth that some take them to be.

Its not just EOTP... its the whole SBNation of hockey sites (ie every team site under that umbrella).... they all go overboard on the stats.

There has to be a balance between the two extremes though.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

DGB wrote one of the more sensible articles on the Leafs and advanced stats. That said far too many internet reporters think they'll get good paying jobs one day by just being statnerds. They never realized that the old school baseball writers still write. They were never replaced.

[JoeLassister]

Stats could prove your point: if there was a weaker goal differential with Diaz on the ice than Murray. Unfortunately it's the other way around: with Diaz better able to skate or pass the puck out the defensive zone, the Habs score more goals with him on ice.

I think this scenario of a guy who can't clear the puck and can't do anything on offense but keeps the puck along the boards (which is pretty much what we have in Murray) is an effective PK guy, but not good 5 on 5. I'd take Murray over Diaz every day down a man, but at 5 on 5 we sacrifice way too much puck movement.

Now ice a team that never takes any penalty and let's keep Diaz...

Anyway, Murray is irrelevant. It's Diaz vs Beaulieu and it has always been.

The stats indicate that Murray gives up more goals per minute played than Diaz.

Oh and Diaz plays tougher competition.

[Commandant]

Now ice a team that never takes any penalty and let's keep Diaz...

another straw man. Diaz was one of the team's best on the penalty kill in terms of minutes played per goal allowed in each of the last 2 years.

[JoeLassister]

another straw man. Diaz was one of the team's best on the penalty kill in terms of minutes played per goal allowed in each of the last 2 years.

I don't care at all. What I've seen from our PK guy recently is more than satsisfying to me.

In my eyes, the money saved for next season and the roster spot for Beaulieu this season will always overcome any stats argument in favor of Diaz that you will ever bring. I don't think the Habs will suffer one bit from this "loss". Especially if our 4th with Weise keeps its game up like that.

[Commandant]

Beaulieu passed Diaz, and maybe that made Diaz redundant.

But he's a far better defenceman than given credit for, and maybe if we played him a little more instead of Murray, we could have got a lot better value out of the guy.

[DON]

another straw man. Diaz was one of the team's best on the penalty kill in terms of minutes played per goal allowed in each of the last 2 years.

Hab PK is 3rd in NHL and improving, what need is there for Diaz? Moan-Plekanec-Murray-Gorges-Price are key PK guys and fine by me. And 67 does quite well also and is a dangerous SH guy for sure..

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Look, the issue is simply whether we handled Diaz correctly. He was scratched for 11 games and traded before Sochi could showcase him. That's questionable. Conversely, all the statistical talk overlooks the fact that Murray at least HITS people and adds a much-needed element of physical intimidation. I think it is quite possible that MB was aware of all of these calculations and decided that Murray's one strength is sufficiently important, given the makeup of our team, that it overrode those other considerations.

Maybe we could have done better than Weise. But let's not make TOO much of this. It's not like we were going to get some stud back for Diaz, no matter what.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Beaulieu passed Diaz, and maybe that made Diaz redundant.

But he's a far better defenceman than given credit for, and maybe if we played him a little more instead of Murray, we could have got a lot better value out of the guy.

If the Islanders trade had anything to say about the trade market, it's that nobody wants to make trades unless you're compromising. We need to stop assuming we know what the market is saying for a player just because we think they are worth a certain amount.

[Commandant]

If the Islanders trade had anything to say about the trade market, it's that nobody wants to make trades unless you're compromising. We need to stop assuming we know what the market is saying for a player just because we think they are worth a certain amount.

The Isles dumped money, the Hawks got depth in case of injuries... nothing more to it than that. I hear PM Bouchard is headed to the AHL, and the Isles are keeping 50% of his salary.

Vancouver is using Diaz over 20 minutes a game in his first two games there (yes they have injuries). Still he'll be a regular for them even with everyone back.

Not sure its the same situation.

[dlbalr]

The Isles dumped money, the Hawks got depth in case of injuries... nothing more to it than that. I hear PM Bouchard is headed to the AHL, and the Isles are keeping 50% of his salary.

NYI is retaining 50% of both Bouchard and Regin's salary. For Chicago, they're getting Regin for well under the minimum salary. To get a player in that situation, they had to take on Bouchard and bury him in the minors. Combined, Regin and Bouchard's cap hit (375k + 75k pro-rated) is still under the minimum. It's a convoluted trade that actually gets Chicago cap space as they sent a player making more money to the minors to open the spot for Regin.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Not sure its the same situation.

It's a reflection of the market, especially in terms of what it takes to get a trade done.

Also, Diaz playing 20 minutes in Vancouver is because everyone is injured there. You know who used to play 20 minutes in Colorado? Ryan O'Byrne. And we got a lot better than Dale Weise for him when Diaz is better than O'Byrne. Why? Market was easier then.