Trade Subban traded to Nashville

[illWill]

The whole discussion seems kind of side-tracked. No one is denying that Weber is a better fighter, and a better overall physical intimidator, than PK Subban. That element, as well as as his PP shot, are the two aspects of his game that represent an upgrade.

He is a downgrade in every other way, except - theoretically - for those misty 'intangibles' that nobody really has any clue about, but have to talk about if they desperately want to try to convince themselves that this trade was other than a dumb move.

Saying it is a dumb move is your opinion and you are entitled to it. But opinion is not fact. There are people that have the opposite opinion and think it was a smart move. This thread is full of great thoughts and analysis debating each side. Personally I think it's a mutually beneficial trade for both sides. I have been tending to argue the optimistic side for the deal because none of us know how this is all going to play out. And there are reasons why it might be a smart move other than the player vs player analysis. A winning team isn't necessarily comprised of the better individual players, and it's certainly debatable which player gives the Habs the better chance at winning at this point in time.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Saying it is a dumb move is your opinion and you are entitled to it. But opinion is not fact. There are people that have the opposite opinion and think it was a smart move. This thread is full of great thoughts and analysis debating each side. Personally I think it's a mutually beneficial trade for both sides. I have been tending to argue the optimistic side for the deal because none of us know how this is all going to play out. And there are reasons why it might be a smart move other than the player vs player analysis. A winning team isn't necessarily comprised of the better individual players, and it's certainly debatable which player gives the Habs the better chance at winning at this point in time.

In truth, you can see MB's moves this summer as directed to two goals: one, make the team tougher; two, improve the PP.

And I'll grant that his moves make sense when seen through this narrow lens. The flaw in the argument is that these goals could have been achieved without trading a franchise defenceman for a worse overall defenceman. E.g., the PP objective could have been realized by replacing Therrien, whose teams for some reason have a terrible history of PP performance, or possibly even just allowing Muller to do what he said he was so excited to do, i.e., work with a PP that included Subban. It's worth recalling here that Subban's goal-scoring performance was quite aberrant last season and he almost certainly would have returned to career norms.

Your argument here basically hinges on the claim that the Habs' trading a better overall player for a worse overall player makes the Habs a better team. It's a version of the 'intangibles' argument. And heck, anything is possible; and certainly the drop-off from Subban to Weber is not so massive that the Habs will suffer too much in the first couple of years of the deal, except (I suspect) against super-fast teams like Pittsburgh and TB. (The Habs will have to get past those teams to make the Finals, though, which should worry us). However, the default position in assessing trades has always been that the team that gets the best player wins the deal. By that measure, the Habs lost the deal. The response of the commentariat reflects this straightforward common sense. More seriously, the trade will look worse and worse with every passing year IMHO.

[illWill]

In truth, you can see MB's moves this summer as directed to two goals: one, make the team tougher; two, improve the PP.

And I'll grant that his moves make sense when seen through this narrow lens. The flaw in the argument is that these goals could have been achieved without trading a franchise defenceman for a worse overall defenceman. E.g., the PP objective could have been realized by replacing Therrien, whose teams for some reason have a terrible history of PP performance, or possibly even just allowing Muller to do what he said he was so excited to do, i.e., work with a PP that included Subban. It's worth recalling here that Subban's goal-scoring performance was quite aberrant last season and he almost certainly would have returned to career norms.

Your argument here basically hinges on the claim that the Habs' trading a better overall player for a worse overall player makes the Habs a better team. It's a version of the 'intangibles' argument. And heck, anything is possible; and certainly the drop-off from Subban to Weber is not so massive that the Habs will suffer too much in the first couple of years of the deal, except (I suspect) against super-fast teams like Pittsburgh and TB. (The Habs will have to get past those teams to make the Finals, though, which should worry us). However, the default position in assessing trades has always been that the team that gets the best player wins the deal. By that measure, the Habs lost the deal. The response of the commentariat reflects this straightforward common sense. More seriously, the trade will look worse and worse with every passing year IMHO.

Yes this team has definitely taken a different approach in retooling. They've identified areas where they wanted to improve and have done so. Weber and Subban both provide offense from the back end, one is a better playmaker and one is a better scorer, so not much of a difference there. They added an apparent legit top 6 forward, whom may not have been able to been added if it weren't for the previous deal. And Radulov was quoted as saying "The team wants to redeem himself after a difficult season, said Radulov. It was the best goalkeeper in the world (Carey Price) and we also got the best defender in the world (Shea Weber) this summer. "on why he chose Montreal. And they replaced Eller's scoring with a comparable in Shaw, who brings more grit. So by my estimation, scoring has been improved as a whole. This team needed to score more, play tougher and have better goaltending. All those boxes have been checked in my opinion

As far as the coach goes, I agree it isn't wise to prefer a coach over a superstar. But the way I see it is that MB and MT have the same vision for what they want on the ice. So for MB to fire MT is to say that he doesn't believe in what he himself believes in. It should be viewed as a positive thing to have management all on the same page. Nothing more dysfunctional than an organization that doesn't see eye to eye.

PK's goal total should be viewed as an aberration, but for all we know it could continue to become the norm. The guy could never hit the broad side of a barn with the clapper. No matter how much the powerplay was funneled through him nothing seemed to work. A coach only has so much influence on a player's performance, he can't make the shot for him. And as someone noted earlier, a large percentage of Subban's assists were secondary assists. My own opinion, I think he should have had a few more goals and a few less assists last year. I thought he got unlucky in the goal department and lucky in the assist department. No matter which way we cut it though, PK had a bad year for being the highest paid defenseman in the entire league. He finished 14th in Norris trophy voting, while Weber finished 10th. The narrative here is that Subban is only going to get better despite getting worse last year, to me that doesn't make sense. It's going to be very interesting to see how everything all plays out.

[Guest Stogey24]

Lay this thread to rest. God damn

[DON]

Some still think they can convince (themselves) others they are correct and know how will play out, as if got a crystal ball and make fantasy comments like "the trade will look worse and worse with every passing year".

Based on what...absolutely nothing!

We all will as illWill has pointed out, need to wait and see how it plays out before start pigeonholing it as the Roy II trade.

[JoeLassister]

Now, Commandant is almost certainly right that fighting is not nearly as important as it used to be, and we can't have it both ways; if Weber only got 28 PIMs last season, that means that he had at most five fights and probably many fewer than that, which tends to underscore Commandant's whole point: this aspect of his game is not particularly important (notwithstanding the possibility that he might serve as a kind of nuclear deterrent).

Not probably fewer than 5 fights, CERTAINLY fewer than 5.

With 28 PMIs, you can't have 5 x 5 for fighting + 3 PIMs extra.

Anyway, last season, Weber fought once only and it was against Antoine Roussel. And people on Hockeyfights voted Roussel as the winner.

[Commandant]

im ok that he's out for 7 minutes if its in response to a cheap shot.... id rather see him out there then having everyone awkwardly look at each other and do nothing, or have nathan beaulieu get punched out cause he's the only guy willing to do something!!

It was pointed out that Weber had 1 fight last year. That kinda kills the narrative...

[dlbalr]

Anyway, last season, Weber fought once only and it was against Antoine Roussel. And people on Hockeyfights voted Roussel as the winner.

He hasn't won a fight in over a calendar year?! There's only one appropriate reaction to this revelation: :scared:

Weber hasn't fought more than twice in a season since 2008-09 so I don't think his willingness (or lack thereof) to drop the gloves really factored into this trade.

[Commandant]

Well, he had a whooping 27pims last season, so are you saying he only played 3.8games last year, if had 7pims/game that you are complaining about.

Some might say, defending teammates is a tool he has -Subban dosent and he dosent need to use it often. So might as well move on and find something else to point out that might make Weber look bad. Am sure you haven't cleaned out the fancy stat closet quite yet.

I didn't say 7 minutes per game... I said 7 minutes for fighting after a cheap shot (5 minutes + 2minute instigator) and asked if you wanted your best defenceman doing the fighting.

Cause he's the Habs best defenceman even if he's a downgrade on Subban.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Some still think they can convince (themselves) others they are correct and know how will play out, as if got a crystal ball and make fantasy comments like "the trade will look worse and worse with every passing year".

Based on what...absolutely nothing!

We all will as illWill has pointed out, need to wait and see how it plays out before start pigeonholing it as the Roy II trade.

It's not "based on nothing." This is just more of your tendency to try to score cheap rhetorical points on this subject. The opinion in question based on an assessment of the players involved, rooted in turn upon freely available empirical evidence, the analysis of people who have watched Weber's recent play, the contracts involved, the players' respective ages, etc..

Your wider claim that "we need to wait and see" seems to be predicated on the idea that we should never react to trades because no one can predict the future with 100% infallibility. So Habsworld posts should be restricted to commentary on past events; we should refrain from ever saying whether we like a UFA signing, a draft pick, a trade, etc., etc..

Since this is obviously NOT how fandom (or human conversation in general) operates, it's an inane argument - one you yourself have violated many times, as we all do, any time a significant move is made. My opinion is that this trade sucks arse, based on the info in my possession. And yes, everyone is 'entitled to their opinion,' which is another truism that doesn't tell us anything, but is getting reiterated a lot in this thread as if it's some sort of defence of the trade.

(And who ever said this was Patrick Roy 2.0? I like the Turgeon/Corson analogy myself, although that too is imperfect).

[nihilz]

Ribiero for Niinimaa.

[BCHabnut]

He hasn't won a fight in over a calendar year?! There's only one appropriate reaction to this revelation: :scared:

Weber hasn't fought more than twice in a season since 2008-09 so I don't think his willingness (or lack thereof) to drop the gloves really factored into this trade.

How many times has Chara fought? How many times did Robinson fight? Are you saying their intimidation factor was nothing?

I detest and hate this trade overall, but I'm not going to deny the positives. As far as team balance goes, we will have to wait and see. Like I said, there were about 5 years where Lidstrom Keith Karlsson were winning norris trophies, but during that 5 year window, I would have rather had Chara. No, I'm not saying Chara is better than Lidstrom, so whoever wants to go nuts over that, go ahead.

[DON]

It was pointed out that Weber had 1 fight last year. That kinda kills the narrative...

You are saying Weber's toughness isn't a nice upgrade on a softish d-core? Yes of course you would like to sweep that bit under the rug, as are no fancy stats for standing up for a teammate, respect or toughness call it what you will (Leadership); but, mostly because Subban lacks that, to a point where he often would cough up puck in own end, simply to avoid taking a hit.

I know I know..he is more a lover not a fighter, he is too pretty to get looks messed up before a photo shoot, or baby kissing photo op.

[Commandant]

Who said I was against toughness.... Weber is a better hitter and better at clearing the crease. Those things certainly matter.

No doubt.

Subban is still ahead in many key areas. Hence the lower shots and scoring chances against, and less zone time.

The fighting.. meh...

[Machine of Loving Grace]

(And who ever said this was Patrick Roy 2.0? I like the Turgeon/Corson analogy myself, although that too is imperfect).

Chelios/Savard is probably as close as you'll get when it comes to this and past Habs trades. That at least had this big thing about people believing Chelios was finished.

Also this whole fighting debate is because I brought up a Predators fan saying he wished Shea Weber defended his goalie more. A poster brought up a moment where Shea Weber did defend. It said nothing to the Predators fans point because he didn't say Shea never did it, but never did it enough. Shea's fighting record is good proof of that. It ballooned from there, even bringing up the Chris Kreider net crashes which he has done to several goalies in the NHL without anyone ever "tuning him up" for it. He crashed Price, Fasth, Fleury, Anderson, Halak, maybe more, and nobody has ever "taught him a lesson for it"

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Chelios/Savard is probably as close as you'll get when it comes to this and past Habs trades. That at least had this big thing about people believing Chelios was finished.

Also this whole fighting debate is because I brought up a Predators fan saying he wished Shea Weber defended his goalie more. A poster brought up a moment where Shea Weber did defend. It said nothing to the Predators fans point because he didn't say Shea never did it, but never did it enough. Shea's fighting record is good proof of that. It ballooned from there, even bringing up the Chris Kreider net crashes which he has done to several goalies in the NHL without anyone ever "tuning him up" for it. He crashed Price, Fasth, Fleury, Anderson, Halak, maybe more, and nobody has ever "taught him a lesson for it"

Well, I don't expect Weber to have a drop-off on the scale that Savard did almost from the moment he arrived in Montreal. It'll take a while, I suspect. If by some off-chance he were to have such a drop-off, this would become one of the very worst trades in franchise history, because I don't believe for one second that there is any danger of Subban having a drop-off.

On Kreider, I think the days of 'player deterrence' are borderline over. The only way a guy like that would be deterred is if he knew the other team was swarming with hard-cases who would immediately and automatically pound the crap out of him, possibly on a repeated basis. In other words, teams need a critical mass of bruisers. In this era of speed and skill, hardly any team carries that kind of critical mass any more. That's why the NHL disciplinary structures need to FINALLY pull their heads out of their butts and actually start doing crazy things like enforcing the rules and protecting the players. Just my two cents.

[Scott462]

Chelios/Savard is probably as close as you'll get when it comes to this and past Habs trades. That at least had this big thing about people believing Chelios was finished.

Also this whole fighting debate is because I brought up a Predators fan saying he wished Shea Weber defended his goalie more. A poster brought up a moment where Shea Weber did defend. It said nothing to the Predators fans point because he didn't say Shea never did it, but never did it enough. Shea's fighting record is good proof of that. It ballooned from there, even bringing up the Chris Kreider net crashes which he has done to several goalies in the NHL without anyone ever "tuning him up" for it. He crashed Price, Fasth, Fleury, Anderson, Halak, maybe more, and nobody has ever "taught him a lesson for it"

I hope someone does though.

I remember being incredibly pissed when Kreider ran Price.

Hopefully karma comes around

[Machine of Loving Grace]

I agree and I've said it before. If the NHL made suspensions and fines mean something, players would think twice.

I don't think Shea will drop off that quick either but I'm going by when the trade was made, not the aftermath.

[kaos]

In truth, you can see MB's moves this summer as directed to two goals: one, make the team tougher; two, improve the PP.

And I'll grant that his moves make sense when seen through this narrow lens. The flaw in the argument is that these goals could have been achieved without trading a franchise defenceman for a worse overall defenceman. E.g., the PP objective could have been realized by replacing Therrien, whose teams for some reason have a terrible history of PP performance, or possibly even just allowing Muller to do what he said he was so excited to do, i.e., work with a PP that included Subban. It's worth recalling here that Subban's goal-scoring performance was quite aberrant last season and he almost certainly would have returned to career norms.

Your argument here basically hinges on the claim that the Habs' trading a better overall player for a worse overall player makes the Habs a better team. It's a version of the 'intangibles' argument. And heck, anything is possible; and certainly the drop-off from Subban to Weber is not so massive that the Habs will suffer too much in the first couple of years of the deal, except (I suspect) against super-fast teams like Pittsburgh and TB. (The Habs will have to get past those teams to make the Finals, though, which should worry us). However, the default position in assessing trades has always been that the team that gets the best player wins the deal. By that measure, the Habs lost the deal. The response of the commentariat reflects this straightforward common sense. More seriously, the trade will look worse and worse with every passing year IMHO.

Boston traded away the best player in Joe Thornton and still won a stanley cup after doing so.

Dallas got Seguin from Boston and clearly won that trade but has not been able to win a cup.

Whether Subban or Weber is the better defenseman/who's I their prime or declining is not going to be the deciding factor in Montreal winning a Stanley Cup.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Boston traded away the best player in Joe Thornton and still won a stanley cup after doing so.

Dallas got Seguin from Boston and clearly won that trade but has not been able to win a cup.

Whether Subban or Weber is the better defenseman/who's I their prime or declining is not going to be the deciding factor in Montreal winning a Stanley Cup.

Price will likely be the deciding factor. In any case, it doesn't follow that the Seguin or Thornton trades were good trades, so your point here can only be that no one player is especially important - a bit of a silly way of approaching a major player moves IMHO.

[Commandant]

Boston traded away the best player in Joe Thornton and still won a stanley cup after doing so.

Dallas got Seguin from Boston and clearly won that trade but has not been able to win a cup.

Whether Subban or Weber is the better defenseman/who's I their prime or declining is not going to be the deciding factor in Montreal winning a Stanley Cup.

1) Almost immediately after that trade Boston made the best free agent signing of the last 15 years in Zdeno Chara.

2) Dallas hasn't won a cup yet but no doubt they improved as a team.

3) Its not the deciding factor, but it makes things a heck of a lot harder.

Trades can bring you closer to your goal or further from the goal... this one did the latter.

[BCHabnut]

Well, I don't expect Weber to have a drop-off on the scale that Savard did almost from the moment he arrived in Montreal. It'll take a while, I suspect. If by some off-chance he were to have such a drop-off, this would become one of the very worst trades in franchise history, because I don't believe for one second that there is any danger of Subban having a drop-off.

On Kreider, I think the days of 'player deterrence' are borderline over. The only way a guy like that would be deterred is if he knew the other team was swarming with hard-cases who would immediately and automatically pound the crap out of him, possibly on a repeated basis. In other words, teams need a critical mass of bruisers. In this era of speed and skill, hardly any team carries that kind of critical mass any more. That's why the NHL disciplinary structures need to FINALLY pull their heads out of their butts and actually start doing crazy things like enforcing the rules and protecting the players. Just my two cents.

That's a good point. Officials need to do a better job of protecting players. I would be more than happy to see hockey evolve that way.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

Boston traded away the best player in Joe Thornton and still won a stanley cup after doing so.

They spent two straight years at the bottom of the Northeast after that deal. The draft after trading Thornton landed them Kessel, Marchand, and Lucic. It was six seasons after the deal that they won the Cup. In that time Bergeron and Krejci developed while they traded Kessel for Seguin/Hamilton picks and acquired Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask. Plus, as Commandant mentioned, signed Zdeno Chara (and Marc Savard).

Also the Chelios/Savard trade was proof you could lose a trade and still win a Stanley Cup soon after. Montreal isn't alone in doing that. To build their Edmonton Oilers tribute team, the Rangers traded away Tony Amote and Doug Weight. Once all the guys retired and Messier left to make a bunch of money in Vancouver and come back, the Rangers tried replacing them with free agents and didn't see the Cup again. The Calgary Flames made one of the worst trades in NHL history in 1988 sending Brett Hull to the St. Louis Blues. Didn't stop them from winning the Cup in 89.

[BCHabnut]

Trades can bring you closer to your goal or further from the goal... this one did the latter.

I think this is what people are questioning. One for one, Weber is a downgrade on Subban. But did the trade bring the team further from their goal? I don't know that yet. Will Weber's style fit better or worse? Will room chemistry improve now that the Subban and his constant self promotion has moved on? Will Weber improve team balance? Will the team suffer or profit? I tend to think it will suffer at containing speed and transition, but I'm not ready to say that the trade most certainly made them worse.

[Machine of Loving Grace]

I think this is what people are questioning. One for one, Weber is a downgrade on Subban. But did the trade bring the team further from their goal? I don't know that yet. Will Weber's style fit better or worse? Will room chemistry improve now that the Subban and his constant self promotion has moved on? Will Weber improve team balance? Will the team suffer or profit? I tend to think it will suffer at containing speed and transition, but I'm not ready to say that the trade most certainly made them worse.

From a Preds fan (I think their side of this is important. They watched their team unceremoniously trade their captain and best player for the past several years and there isn't anywhere near as much derision among their fans as Montreal. And that's not a size of fanbase thing. Only the most hardcore of Weber fans are disappointed):

The other thing Subban brings you is the ability to shuffle the defensive deck a bit more too. The issue with Weber has always been his ability to move the puck out of the zone, so while defensively you could pair him with about anyone, if neither could move the puck you were setting yourself up for some pain.

Simply put I think the move was made after watching what happened with Pittsburgh. I wouldn't say any of those guys were elite defenders, but what they could do was get the puck up and out of the zone quickly and push the game to the other end. I think that is pretty much the game Lavi is after, so Subban seems to fit that style of play more so than Weber ever would.

I will also be interested to see what it does to the PP. One would think things will need to be adjusted and it will need to be much more forward focused. That may end up being a bad thing, but part of me thinks it may end up being better because the players and coaching staff can no longer resort back to the old stand bye of feeding it to Weber and hoping he gets that shot on net. We talk about Weber's PP goals, but when you look at the number of chances he gets vs the number that goes in each year it might not be a bad thing to have a break from long term.