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What goes around comes around Carolina pay back Kotkaniemi offer sheet


Habsfan89
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2 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

It is interesting ... but other than those "few games" his play got him pulled from the lineup ... to me that speaks volumes ... Habs needed goals but DD et al decided to sit their (tied for) second best goal scorer of last spring/summer's playoffs (2nd best in G/GP) for the final two games against TBL.

 

You can look at it in two ways. One is that the handful of impact playoff games he’s put in (maybe 6-7 in total) are a signpost to the future: “this is what he will grow into.” The other is that they are a mirage, just like Eller’s hot streaks which had everyone fantasizing that he would become a top-6 C, or Kostitsyn’s little runs of good games, or Higgins’s offensive spurts, etc., etc.. I have seen too many young players look great for brief stretches to put too much faith in that.

 

Conversely, I put a lot of weight on the fact that KK basically had maybe a dozen impact games in his entire time with the Habs, and that he always reverted back fairly quickly to a low-impact, solid, bottom-6, uninspiring game. I suspect that is where he is most comfortable and where he will likely end up (Eller 2.0). But it is premature to rule out the alternative. And the W factor is a wild card. 

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1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Yep. I have zero time for the Habs’ repeated stupidities in throwing Galy, KK, and Mete into the frying pan without proper marinading in the minors. Hopefully they have learned their lesson - finally.

 

 

It’s a very interesting point. The irony is that, if KK’s profile had been that of a W, the Habs almost certainly would never have drafted him in the first place. I don’t know how KK feels about playing C, though. Is he happy moving to the W permanently, or is he seeing this move as a tactical thing and will eventually start pouting for a return to C?

 

Curious statistical fact about KK. During the regular season, he’s had modest point totals but his profile looks basically normal in having more assists than goals. In the playoffs - when everyone agrees he has had one or two impressive playoff rounds - he has 9 goals and 3 assists. It’s like he plays a completely different game for at least a few games during the playoffs. I don’t know what this means, but it’s interesting.

 

His shooting percentage jumps dramatically to.unsustainable levels in the playoffs.  Its really nothing more than that. Puck luck in small sample size.

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9 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

His shooting percentage jumps dramatically to.unsustainable levels in the playoffs.  Its really nothing more than that. Puck luck in small sample size.

 

👍

 

Forgive me if you’ve already shared this, but what’s your assessment of KK’s likely trajectory? 

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2 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

👍

 

Forgive me if you’ve already shared this, but what’s your assessment of KK’s likely trajectory? 

 

2nd line centre with a good defensive game.

 

His ceiling is probably a little bit better than what Christian Dvorak already is but not much.

 

I like the moves for saving the cap space and having 4 years of a cost controlled player who we already know can do the job.  Though the risk is still there that KK could surpass him but its not a sure thing.

 

I've been saying for a while that the guy with #1c potential is suzuki.

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3 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

2nd line centre with a good defensive game.

 

His ceiling is probably a little bit better than what Christian Dvorak already is but not much.

 

I like the moves for saving the cap space and having 4 years of a cost controlled player who we already know can do the job.  Though the risk is still there that KK could surpass him but its not a sure thing.

 

I've been saying for a while that the guy with #1c potential is suzuki.

 

Suzuki is one young player about whom I have never been sceptical. A can’t-miss top-6 C and the only question is how high his ceiling is: 60-70 points? PPG? More - ?

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Suzuki can be a PPG centre or better if he hits his potential.  Its a matter of when he really breaks out but it's gonna happen.  Hopefully this year, but the guy is so close. 

 

I really like how Dvorak and Drouin are meshing.  I'm not sure that anderson will remain as the RW long-term (i see Gallagher in that spot at some point) but I really like the duo there. I think they will need the better defensive game from Gallagher at some point to face top lines. 

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12 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

But isn’t that what you’d expect to happen when you are handed a spot on the NHL roster as the youngest player in the league, when a) you aren’t physically anywhere near to being ready b) you haven’t really done anything to EARN the spot you were handed.

 

Exactly, keep up a guy up when he is 18, he expects a regular shift at 20 because in his mind he has paid his dues. Hopefully they don't make that mistake again with guys like Guhle although Guhle's maturity seems to be at a high level already and would handle it better however another year in junior would obviously be the best thing for him. 

 

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45 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Suzuki is one young player about whom I have never been sceptical. A can’t-miss top-6 C and the only question is how high his ceiling is: 60-70 points? PPG? More - ?

 

Agreed, 60 points at a bare minimum, will he top out at 70-75 or perhaps 80-90 if he always centers the first power play unit.  He will be fun to watch. 

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11 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

You can look at it in two ways. One is that the handful of impact playoff games he’s put in (maybe 6-7 in total) are a signpost to the future: “this is what he will grow into.” The other is that they are a mirage, just like Eller’s hot streaks which had everyone fantasizing that he would become a top-6 C, or Kostitsyn’s little runs of good games, or Higgins’s offensive spurts, etc., etc.. I have seen too many young players look great for brief stretches to put too much faith in that.

 

Conversely, I put a lot of weight on the fact that KK basically had maybe a dozen impact games in his entire time with the Habs, and that he always reverted back fairly quickly to a low-impact, solid, bottom-6, uninspiring game. I suspect that is where he is most comfortable and where he will likely end up (Eller 2.0). But it is premature to rule out the alternative. And the W factor is a wild card. 

 

Exactly.  At the moment kk could just be the Capitals Devante Smith Pelle the year they won, or Moen when the Ducks won.  i.e. players that played 4x above their regular average.  However, neither of them repeated their success, but kk has and in 2 straight years.  

 

When a team is certain to make the playoff it could be a smart strategy to target players solely based on them having a big increase in their playoff performance.  ex:  Armia - he did really well too, so it would make sense for a playoff bound team to be interested in players like that.  

 

 

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I wasn’t the biggest KK draft pick fan but it’s clear to me that he will be superior to Eller and obviously superior to Moen and Smith-Pelley.

 

There are plenty of Elite players who are streaky as well, and the hand picked stats that have been used could apply to most players given such a small sample size.

 

This is all without taking into consideration Kotkaniemi’s

age, and how he is far from his prime.

 

The most points Eller has ever had in a season is 39. Kotkaniemi had 34 in his rookie season.

 

Without this recent discussion clouding my brain, I can see Kotkaniemi having a few 65 point seasons.


Of course, my assumption is as good as yours...

 

 

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Lehkonen had 18g (20.5g/82pace) as a rookie; but that didnt pan out.

Galchenyuk went from 13 to 20 to 30g...but he obviously peaked at 21.

 

So, who the hell knows how Kotkaniemi will fare, based on to date production.

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