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If we were to throw in the towel ...


tomh009
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6 minutes ago, huzer said:

Debbie downer chiming in again, so for the Habs to finish between 11-20, you expect them to post an above 500 record the remainder of the year? Going back to the last full season, teams that finished in the 11-20 spot were above 500 (including the OT loser point). To get to about 83 points, which would be the 11th spot in 2018-2019, the Habs will have to go something along the lines of 35-25-3 over their last 63 games. Picking 20th means they're in the playoffs and finish the year at a 42-18-3 rate (97pts).

 

Correct. To get to about the 11th worst spot they would need at least 82 points. Unlikely to happen. 

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27 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

Gallagher has 3 goals in 18 games this year (1 in an empty net) and had 2 goals in 22 playoff games last year. That is not 1st line material and perhaps he needs a wake up call.  I love the guy but he is not producing.  He was also a drafted player. 

Not by MB. along with Price, Gallagher is  all that remain from what MB had when he started.

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31 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

... Habs will finish bottom 10 which means they will get Carolina's pick, likely the far end of the 1st round ...

Habs need to finish bottom 8 to guarantee they keep their pick ... 9th or 10th and if two teams from 11-16 win the lottery draws and habs fall to 11th.

 

32 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

... I think Bergevin is pretty smart and realizes the team is not going anywhere this year and will resist the temptation to make the team slightly better.  We need that top 10 pick. It is REBUILD time. 

MOLSON is the one that needs to realize that a "playoff push" is a bad thing, let alone the need for a rebuild or even a re-tool ... with all of the silence on the future of Mr. I have a contract until the end of this season, I have to wonder whether Bergevin has the green light to make any major moves right now ... playoff push or pick/prospect accumulation.

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58 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Habs need to finish bottom 8 to guarantee they keep their pick ... 9th or 10th and if two teams from 11-16 win the lottery draws and habs fall to 11th.

 

MOLSON is the one that needs to realize that a "playoff push" is a bad thing, let alone the need for a rebuild or even a re-tool ... with all of the silence on the future of Mr. I have a contract until the end of this season, I have to wonder whether Bergevin has the green light to make any major moves right now ... playoff push or pick/prospect accumulation.

 

Yes, bottom 8 would guarantee it, we have discussed that before.  I think it is pretty obvious that a playoff push is out of the question. 

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1 hour ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Not by MB. along with Price, Gallagher is  all that remain from what MB had when he started.

That is probably why Molson is quiet. MB is not his man and he is looking for the new GM

 

I doubt new GMs would want to come in before mid season to this mess

 

hopefully a new GM comes to do the trade deadline sell off

 

if not, it will be the same as when MB came in after goat : in time to get ready for the draft 

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1 hour ago, GHT120 said:

MOLSON is the one that needs to realize that a "playoff push" is a bad thing, let alone the need for a rebuild or even a re-tool ... with all of the silence on the future of Mr. I have a contract until the end of this season, I have to wonder whether Bergevin has the green light to make any major moves right now ... playoff push or pick/prospect accumulation.

 

I think Bergevin absolutely has the green light to make any moves he deems necessary right now.  Remember, as of recently, Molson wanted to sign him to an extension.  Molson blocking any significant moves would make it that much harder to sign Bergevin to an extension.

 

If Molson has decided that Bergevin isn't his guy moving forward, then we'll be seeing an announcement about his firing at any moment now.  They're likely not hiring his permanent replacement in-season due to a lack of availability of viable candidates (just like Chicago/Anaheim) so it'll be a combination of Martin Lapointe/Scott Mellanby running the show the rest of the way if Bergevin was to be let go.  There's no point in carrying a GM that you know you don't want back after the season so Molson would make the move, appoint the interim GM (Lapointe in title, Mellanby in actuality), and move forward.  Until that happens, Bergevin is Molson's preferred choice for the role.

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1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

 

I think Bergevin absolutely has the green light to make any moves he deems necessary right now.  Remember, as of recently, Molson wanted to sign him to an extension.  Molson blocking any significant moves would make it that much harder to sign Bergevin to an extension.

 

If Molson has decided that Bergevin isn't his guy moving forward, then we'll be seeing an announcement about his firing at any moment now.  They're likely not hiring his permanent replacement in-season due to a lack of availability of viable candidates (just like Chicago/Anaheim) so it'll be a combination of Martin Lapointe/Scott Mellanby running the show the rest of the way if Bergevin was to be let go.  There's no point in carrying a GM that you know you don't want back after the season so Molson would make the move, appoint the interim GM (Lapointe in title, Mellanby in actuality), and move forward.  Until that happens, Bergevin is Molson's preferred choice for the role.

 

If Bergevin even wants to be back, he clearly won't sign for what Molson has offered (else it would be done) ... so Molson either has to give Bergeron near or what Marc asked for ($ and/or term) or accept MB is gone and plan accordingly.

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1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

... I doubt new GMs would want to come in before mid season to this mess ...

 

Actually, ***IF*** the preferred replacement was available I expect they might well like to come in ASAP and have control over the roster to start what they see as needing to be done (including draft related trades) ... including beginning planning for the draft ... after the season a new GM currently employed elsewhere might not even be allowed to come on board until after the draft (to avoid transfer of knowledge on prospects).

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25 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

If Bergevin even wants to be back, he clearly won't sign for what Molson has offered (else it would be done) ... so Molson either has to give Bergeron near or what Marc asked for ($ and/or term) or accept MB is gone and plan accordingly.

 

Or Molson can hope that Bergevin will realize that this season hurts his market value thereby making Molson's original offer a more desirable one that he'd accept.

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4 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

dropping Gallagher to the third line, for the "coronation" of Caufield as the team's top RW certainly was a message to the team that no one is safe and to expect a sell-off of veterans

Gallagher actually looked to fit in well with Lehkonen and Evans ...

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3 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Not by MB. along with Price, Gallagher is  all that remain from what MB had when he started.

Ahh, but he was drafted by Timmins (a GM is unlikely to interfere in later rounds anyway), and I keep being told that Timmins is hot garbage ...

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1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

 

Or Molson can hope that Bergevin will realize that this season hurts his market value thereby making Molson's original offer a more desirable one that he'd accept.

 

Not certain an "I haven't got anywhere better to go" GM doesn't seem like a great option.

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4 hours ago, tomh009 said:

Ahh, but he was drafted by Timmins (a GM is unlikely to interfere in later rounds anyway), and I keep being told that Timmins is hot garbage ...

So Timmins has drafted the following impact players (loosely defined as starting goalie, top pairing D, or top line forward) since Price in the last 15 years:

-Price

-McDonough (given away by the GM)

-Maxpac

-Subban

-Gallagher

-Sergechev (given away by the GM)

-Caufield (unproven,

but all indications are that he will be one)


That’s not bad for 14 years for a team like the Coyotes, but pretty weak for any team aspiring to be a true contender.

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2 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

So Timmins has drafted the following impact players (loosely defined as starting goalie, top pairing D, or top line forward) since Price in the last 15 years:

-Price

-McDonough (given away by the GM)

-Maxpac

-Subban

-Gallagher

-Sergechev (given away by the GM)

-Caufield (unproven,

but all indications are that he will be one)


That’s not bad for 14 years for a team like the Coyotes, but pretty weak for any team aspiring players I be contender.

 

Especially when you consider that 15 years is a long span of time in hockey terms. To be fair, it is true that the primes of Price, McD, Subban, Patches, and Gallagher all overlapped - and that is why the 2014-15 team was the closest the Habs have come to looking like serious, sustained contenders since 1994. THAT is the kind of result you need from the draft. But the rise of Sergachev and Caufield occured or will occur over the decline of most of those other guys. It's not like all of the players you list were firing on all cylanders at the same time.

 

When you look at the names, it really underscores how MB has simply failed to draft and develop. Gainey and Goat had way more success in that department. Their comparative success puts the lie to the narrative that bubble teams can't draft impact player, incidentally. Meanwhile, Bergevin has a grand total of two impact picks in 9 years. That doesn't butter anyone's toast.

 

Timmins performed decently for a while there. The precipitous decline has been under Bergevin.

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16 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Especially when you consider that 15 years is a long span of time in hockey terms. To be fair, it is true that the primes of Price, McD, Subban, Patches, and Gallagher all overlapped - and that is why the 2014-15 team was the closest the Habs have come to looking like serious, sustained contenders since 1994. THAT is the kind of result you need from the draft. But the rise of Sergachev and Caufield occured or will occur over the decline of most of those other guys. It's not like all of the players you list were firing on all cylanders at the same time.

 

When you look at the names, it really underscores how MB has simply failed to draft and develop. Gainey and Goat had way more success in that department. Their comparative success puts the lie to the narrative that bubble teams can't draft impact player, incidentally. Meanwhile, Bergevin has a grand total of two impact picks in 9 years. That doesn't butter anyone's toast.

 

Timmins performed decently for a while there. The precipitous decline has been under Bergevin.

Boston had their share of misses, like the year where they had like 3 consecutive 1st round picks. But they still managed to draft the following with middling to late picks that are major roster players:

2016 - #14 Charlie McAvoy

2015 - #37 Brandon Carlo

2014 - #25 David Pasternak 

 

It typically takes 5 years to know what you have, so I won’t look at more recent picks. That’s three straight years of impact players in the lineup that were home drafted and developed.

 

who do we have under MB’s that’s kind of a regular??? Lekhonan.

 

that’s crap. Keep hearing why we sick at drafting is that we trade away picks, or draft late as a bubble team. Well these aren’t top ten picks that are now part of the core in Boston.

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1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

By your own definition, though, Carlo is not an impact player since he doesn't play on the first pair. If you want to compare, at least you need to use a consistent standard.

Meant top 2 pairing D.

I think if you have draft a dman you draft that regularly plays 20 min a night and is legit top 4, that is an impact player. 
mid take Carlo over Edmondson, Savard, and Chiarot. Maybe Romanov turns out to be better than him in a few years. Right now I’d take Carlo over any of our current dman (given how Petry has sucked).

 

point is that it’s a dumb argument that you can’t draft elite (Pasternak, McAvoy), or impact players with late picks. Caufield may is the only one we have that may become an elite or

Impactful player.

 

Right now, the only home grown players that look like they will be all NHL players long term are Lekhonan, Evans, and Romanov.  The first two are bottom 2 line  players. The Bruins have other players that fall in that easily. Romanov looks like he may be a middle pairing dman, but has not shown that he can be a 20 min Dman YET.

 

 

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17 hours ago, GHT120 said:

 

Actually, ***IF*** the preferred replacement was available I expect they might well like to come in ASAP and have control over the roster to start what they see as needing to be done (including draft related trades) ... including beginning planning for the draft ... after the season a new GM currently employed elsewhere might not even be allowed to come on board until after the draft (to avoid transfer of knowledge on prospects).

 

This is what bothers me most. Key decisions affecting the future will need to be made this season. In an ideal world, they would be made by the GM who will own the consequences of those decisions. Instead, it looks like they will be made by MB as he walks out the door - or else by some lame-duck ‘interim’ seat-warmer. 

 

Based on his track record, I would actually tend to trust MB to get a good return for our veterans. Where I feel less confident is that he will decide to trade those veterans, or trade the right ones.

 

We’re in a spot where none of the answers re: GM are ideal. Re-upping MB is a depressing thought because of his awful record at drafting/development and longer-term planning. Firing him mid-season saddles us with an interim guy left to make franchise-defining decisions.  Keeping him until the end of the season means an expiring guy makes those decisions. No good choices.

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Bit from EOTP:

"The team currently sports a .263 points percentage entering its 20th game. For context, the last-place club a season ago — the Buffalo Sabres — finished with a .330 mark. The year before that, the historically bad Detroit Red Wings ended with a .275 points percentage..."

 

UGGGG!!

 

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6 minutes ago, DON said:

Bit from EOTP:

"The team currently sports a .263 points percentage entering its 20th game. For context, the last-place club a season ago — the Buffalo Sabres — finished with a .330 mark. The year before that, the historically bad Detroit Red Wings ended with a .275 points percentage..."

 

UGGGG!!

 

 

Could we be looking at the worst Montreal Canadiens season in history? 

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Today's beat down match up

 

3.53 goals against, thats not real good. How much can Price-Edmundson change that, some for sure, but much?

 

Canadiens Statistics Predators
4-13-2 Record 9-6-1
51.0% (14th) Scoring-chances-for % 49.0% (19th)
2.00 (31st) Goals per game 2.69 (22nd)
3.53 (30th) Goals against per game 2.63 (10th)
13.6% (28th) PP% 26.2% (6th)
71.0% (29th) PK% 79.0% (22nd)
0-1-0 H2H Record (19-20) 1-0-0
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The “scoring-chances-for” stat is also interesting. They get chances like the bubble team I expected them to be: middle of the pack. One thing I noticed early in the season is that we were whiffing on a ridiculous number of chances (missing the net, mostly), and that trend has continued. This helps to explain why so many key Habs are producing way below their historic totals.

 

The team D is a tire-fire, no two ways about it.

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31 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

... The team D is a tire-fire, no two ways about it.

image.png

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38 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

The “scoring-chances-for” stat is also interesting. They get chances like the bubble team I expected them to be: middle of the pack. One thing I noticed early in the season is that we were whiffing on a ridiculous number of chances (missing the net, mostly), and that trend has continued. This helps to explain why so many key Habs are producing way below their historic totals.

This also shows in the very low shooting percentage.

 

What I don't understand is why they are struggling so badly with putting the puck in the net when they do have chances. That should not be a question of Ducharme's system -- or even of player personnel, since almost all are well below their career shooting percentages.

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