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2022 NHL Offseason Thread


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A lot of it stems from failed development of guys like KK in the past, but I’m so nervous for both Slaf and Dach next season. 
 

If these guys don’t prove to be bonafide too 6ers (in short order) it’ll be a disaster for the future.

 

im rooting for both, even though I’m not confident in either 

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4 hours ago, Meller93 said:

A lot of it stems from failed development of guys like KK in the past, but I’m so nervous for both Slaf and Dach next season. 
 

If these guys don’t prove to be bonafide too 6ers (in short order) it’ll be a disaster for the future.

 

im rooting for both, even though I’m not confident in either 

 

Ha ha, yes. If neither work out, I suspect HughGort will go down in Habs’ history as ignominious failures along with Goat and Grundamn. (No one approaches Houle for sheer catastrophic incompetence). This was their biggest chance to add impact players to the rebuild. If they come up empty, then getting to a Cup is going to be massively harder and a decade of middling results seems the more plausible scenario.

 

That said, I’m sure Slaf the Giraffe will become an NHLer - the odds of a 1st overall pick outright flopping are small. My guess is that, worst case scenario, he’ll become Josh Anderson. While that will feel like a disaster, especially if Cooley and/or Wright blossom into impact C, we’ll still have a quality asset. In other words, Slaf is a risky play in relative but not absolute terms. 

 

Dach seems more like an out-and-out boom-or-bust move.

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6 hours ago, Meller93 said:

A lot of it stems from failed development of guys like KK in the past, but I’m so nervous for both Slaf and Dach next season. 
 

If these guys don’t prove to be bonafide too 6ers (in short order) it’ll be a disaster for the future.

 

im rooting for both, even though I’m not confident in either 


One thing that I can say with confidence is that our new player development system is miles and miles and miles ahead of what it was under Bergevin. 
 

We are now using a team of people and modern analytics. We have a progressive system that is as far as east is from west away from the nonsense we had before. 
 

Not to mention that Chicago has been a shitshow for a while now. 
 

Both Slafsquach and Dach will have enormous support here. 

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6 hours ago, Meller93 said:

A lot of it stems from failed development of guys like KK in the past, but I’m so nervous for both Slaf and Dach next season. 
 

If these guys don’t prove to be bonafide too 6ers (in short order) it’ll be a disaster for the future.

 

im rooting for both, even though I’m not confident in either 

 

I see the glass as 1/2 full this time.  St. Louis's job keeps getting more and more important all the time with so many young guys coming in. 

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1 hour ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:


I agree

 

It might happen Wednesday and I hope there is more

Not sure when Habs could extract the best value, this summer or keep for 3/4 of season and deal at trade deadline?

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seems like SEA will have a field day signing ex-CHI players this week. If not them, other bottom feeders... hopefully not the Habs

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1 hour ago, DON said:

Not sure when Habs could extract the best value, this summer or keep for 3/4 of season and deal at trade deadline?


Drouin might be a deadline target if he has a good season. 
 

I would be surprised if he gets a contract offer from Montreal 

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1 hour ago, DON said:

Not sure when Habs could extract the best value, this summer or keep for 3/4 of season and deal at trade deadline?

 

For guys in the last year of their contract the trade deadline is the best time, for guys like Petry it is now. 

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1 hour ago, DON said:

Not sure when Habs could extract the best value, this summer or keep for 3/4 of season and deal at trade deadline?

IMO part of the value has to include the cap space it clears out ... the Habs are still very close to the cap ceiling and  have RFAs Dach and R Pitlick to sign ... as well as filling out the bottom of the roster ... no guarantee whether or not Price plays ... but in any case, I don't think HuGo want to be in LTIR as it pushes bonuses onto next year's cap and limits roster flexibility in-season.

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26 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Drouin might be a deadline target if he has a good season. 
I would be surprised if he gets a contract offer from Montreal 

 

Beyond how JD plays, it may also depend on who else they manage to move out ... difficult as it may be, moving any of (or combination of) Gallagher, Hoffman and Dadonov creates "veteran space" for a possible Drouin extension (sort-term IMO).

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28 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

IMO part of the value has to include the cap space it clears out ... the Habs are still very close to the cap ceiling and  have RFAs Dach and R Pitlick to sign ... as well as filling out the bottom of the roster ... no guarantee whether or not Price plays ... but in any case, I don't think HuGo want to be in LTIR as it pushes bonuses onto next year's cap and limits roster flexibility in-season.

 

That's if Pitlick is still around in a few days.  Barring a last-minute change in his asking price, it's not looking like he's going to be.

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2 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

That's if Pitlick is still around in a few days.  Barring a last-minute change in his asking price, it's not looking like he's going to be.

 

Just saw speculation that Primeau and Dach may be the only RFAs qualified ... which doesn't guarantee others are gone, but would point that way ... if RM moves on he will then have to be replaced, eating up cap space ... so it doesn't really relieve the cap issues. 

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25 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Just saw speculation that Primeau and Dach may be the only RFAs qualified ... which doesn't guarantee others are gone, but would point that way ... if RM moves on he will then have to be replaced, eating up cap space ... so it doesn't really relieve the cap issues. 

 

They have extra forwards on the roster already that could fill Pitlick's spot so there wouldn't necessarily be extra cap space being eaten up.  I'd be surprised if those two are the only ones qualified although there will be several getting let go.

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2 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

That's if Pitlick is still around in a few days.  Barring a last-minute change in his asking price, it's not looking like he's going to be.

 

Oh no!!  They better not lose Pitlick, that would be silly.

 

How much does Pitlick want?  He's at least a 45 pt guy, and probably more like 50-60 pts so if they can sign him for cheaper than Hoffman, Drouin or Dadonov they probably should do it.  i.e. someone that gets around the same amount of points but for less money = a keeper.  

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13 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

Oh no!!  They better not lose Pitlick, that would be silly.

 

How much does Pitlick want?  He's at least a 45 pt guy, and probably more like 50-60 pts so if they can sign him for cheaper than Hoffman, Drouin or Dadonov they probably should do it.  i.e. someone that gets around the same amount of points but for less money = a keeper.  

 

He has arbitration rights and the Habs want to stay away from giving him the right to a hearing as the award will be higher than what they can afford.  I think their offer would be somewhere in the $1.25M range on a one-year, one-way deal.

 

It's hard to say he's at least a 45-point player considering he has 37 points for his career and is coming off a year with a highly unsustainable shooting percentage and saw him waived twice.  Is he a late bloomer or a depth guy who had some good fortune?  I wouldn't be comfortable putting him at more than 25 points, especially since he isn't going to be seeing the ice time he did last season.  He's a depth guy, not a core piece.

 

There are going to be a lot of players like him that are getting non-tendered tomorrow (Dominik Kubalik is a notable one in Chicago) just to avoid the arbitration factor. 

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13 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

 

Oh no!!  They better not lose Pitlick, that would be silly.

 

How much does Pitlick want?  He's at least a 45 pt guy, and probably more like 50-60 pts so if they can sign him for cheaper than Hoffman, Drouin or Dadonov they probably should do it.  i.e. someone that gets around the same amount of points but for less money = a keeper.  

At the moment they have <$2M in cap space for next season (more for the summer but that disappears come October) ... they can't just willy-nilly sign guys without having confidence about who, if anyone, they will be able to move to make room under the cap ... they may have to wait until a move or two are made before they can safely sign guys.

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1 minute ago, dlbalr said:

 

He has arbitration rights and the Habs want to stay away from giving him the right to a hearing as the award will be higher than what they can afford.  I think their offer would be somewhere in the $1.25M range on a one-year, one-way deal.

 

It's hard to say he's at least a 45-point player considering he has 37 points for his career and is coming off a year with a highly unsustainable shooting percentage.  Is he a late bloomer or a depth guy who had some good fortune?  I wouldn't be comfortable putting him at more than 25 points, especially since he isn't going to be seeing the ice time he did last season.

 

Thats unfortunate he can go to arbitration.  If they lose Pitlick that would be bad asset management as far as I'm concerned.  Age would be a pro for keeping Pitlick too.  He is older than the core but only by a few years.

 

I'd say he's a 45 pt guy, and might even be able hit 60+, on the right line with good minutes.  

 

I don't want to see Drouin moved because we still haven't seen what he can do since getting over anxiety and what he might do under MSL.  Hughes has said that he wants to play Dadonov, so I guess they need to dump Hoffman. 

 

I have the impression that Petry wont be moved.  Will there be any half decent UFA dmen for around $5mil?  If yes then Drouin might have to be moved too.  

 

 

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7 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

 

Thats unfortunate he can go to arbitration.  If they lose Pitlick that would be bad asset management as far as I'm concerned.  Age would be a pro for keeping Pitlick too.  He is older than the core but only by a few years.

 

I'd say he's a 45 pt guy, and might even be able hit 60+, on the right line with good minutes.  

 

I don't want to see Drouin moved because we still haven't seen what he can do since getting over anxiety and what he might do under MSL.  Hughes has said that he wants to play Dadonov, so I guess they need to dump Hoffman. 

 

I have the impression that Petry wont be moved.  Will there be any half decent UFA dmen for around $5mil?  If yes then Drouin might have to be moved too.  

 

 

 

It's hard to determine the value of Pitlick because the sample size is small. He looked very good at times but I am still not convinced.

 

I doubt if Drouin is going anywhere as I don't think there is a big demand for his services. There is no doubt Dadonov will play and hopefully he has a good year so they can get maximum value at the trade deadline. 

 

Petry will be moved for the right offer. I think if he is moved it will be this week. If he is not moved this week then I think the chances are pretty good he will be with the Habs in the fall. 

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5 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

Thats unfortunate he can go to arbitration.  If they lose Pitlick that would be bad asset management as far as I'm concerned.  Age would be a pro for keeping Pitlick too.  He is older than the core but only by a few years.

 

I'd say he's a 45 pt guy, and might even be able hit 60+, on the right line with good minutes.  

 

I don't want to see Drouin moved because we still haven't seen what he can do since getting over anxiety and what he might do under MSL.  Hughes has said that he wants to play Dadonov, so I guess they need to dump Hoffman. 

 

I have the impression that Petry wont be moved.  Will there be any half decent UFA dmen for around $5mil?  If yes then Drouin might have to be moved too. 

 

Doesn't Pitlick actually have to reach 45 points before you can comfortably say he'll be a 45-point guy?  Do you expect him to shoot 23% moving forward?  (He was already starting to struggle down the stretch.)  Do you expect him to play 17 minutes a game on this roster?  If Pitlick's back, he doesn't come close to the top six moving forward so there's no way he's putting up that type of production from the third or fourth line.  The Habs know that and aren't going to pay him accordingly.  Again, he's not a future long-term fixture, not even close.

 

If Pitlick hits the open market, there aren't going to be a bunch of teams lining up to get him.  I don't think he has any trade value because of the arbitration eligibility so it's hard to say it's bad asset management; it's not as if they could have gotten anything of consequence for him (or anything at all even).  He's a waiver claim that they got more production than expected out of which is great.  If they can keep him around at an affordable rate, fine.  If not, there will be plenty of other role players to choose from as again, there are about to be a bunch of Pitlick-type players getting made available late tomorrow afternoon.  Will letting those players go all be bad asset management too or just a reality of a flat-cap situation putting the squeeze on a lot of teams?  Every GM knows this mass addition of free agents is coming so no one's trading for them right now.

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Well, if anyone is looking for the definition of "TANK", look no further than what Chicago is doing (getting rid of all your good players under 25).  Montreal did not tank last year (they had a miserable season) and will not tank this year.  They may have a bad season this year (they may not) but it's pretty much guaranteed that Chicago will have a bad season. I would not want the Habs to do what Chicago is doing. 

 

 

"Tanking (sports), a strategy of sports teams intentionally fielding losing teams in order to gain benefits that pay off later"

From wikipedia

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21 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

Well, if anyone is looking for the definition of "TANK", look no further than what Chicago is doing (getting rid of all your good players under 25).  Montreal did not tank last year (they had a miserable season) and will not tank this year.  They may have a bad season this year (they may not) but it's pretty much guaranteed that Chicago will have a bad season. I would not want the Habs to do what Chicago is doing. 

 

 

"Tanking (sports), a strategy of sports teams intentionally fielding losing teams in order to gain benefits that pay off later"

From wikipedia

 
don’t look now, but the Habs D is crap

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3 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

Doesn't Pitlick actually have to reach 45 points before you can comfortably say he'll be a 45-point guy? 

 

>> He was on pace for about 50 pts.

 

Do you expect him to shoot 23% moving forward? 

 

>> No, but he has maintained a 20% S% in every league he played in.  I imagine his S% will avg out to around 14%, which is super high.

 

(He was already starting to struggle down the stretch.) 

 

>> Ya, players go in streaks

 

Do you expect him to play 17 minutes a game on this roster? 

 

>> the Habs do roll 4 lines avg about 15 mins/line. 

 

If Pitlick's back, he doesn't come close to the top six moving forward so there's no way he's putting up that type of production from the third or fourth line. 

 

>> They dont really have lines in that sense when they all get almost equal minutes.  He could be 1 of 3rd liner Dach's wingers.  

 

The Habs know that and aren't going to pay him accordingly. 

 

>> Exactly!! They can get him cheap. 

 

Again, he's not a future long-term fixture, not even close.

 

If Pitlick hits the open market, there aren't going to be a bunch of teams lining up to get him. 

 

>> true, he hasnt been seen enough, and isn't signed cheap deal yet.  If he's signed to a positive value contract with term on it he would eventually have trade value.  There are cap crunched teams that would pay a good price for a 45 pts guy that makes under $2mil.  ex:  Avs, Oils, Leafs, Bolts, and possibly even the team that waived him the Wild.  

 

I don't think he has any trade value because of the arbitration eligibility so it's hard to say it's bad asset management; it's not as if they could have gotten anything of consequence for him (or anything at all even). 

 

>> you're missing the point.  Keep Pitlick, move a more expensive player.

 

He's a waiver claim that they got more production than expected out of which is great. 

 

>> That is true he was waiver claim, but I view as if he's an extra pick that wasn't theres.  Byron was too, but they still have him.  I believe they saw something good in Pitlick when they grabbed him.  

 

>> If you think he's a marginal 3rd or 4th liner then why not sign him as 1 and keep him to replace a more expensive 3rd or 4th liner, like Byron.  I'd say its bad asset management to keep an older, smaller, often injured more expensive 4th liner and let Pitlick walk.

 

>>What do you think he'll be awarded if he went to arbitration?  If the deal is for over 2 year can he arbitrate it? i.e. a club can only be stuck paying it for 1 year.

 

 

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7 hours ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

Doesn't Pitlick actually have to reach 45 points before you can comfortably say he'll be a 45-point guy? 

>> He was on pace for about 50 pts.

 

(He was already starting to struggle down the stretch.) 

>> Ya, players go in streaks

 

Do you expect him to play 17 minutes a game on this roster? 

>> the Habs do roll 4 lines avg about 15 mins/line. 

 

The Habs know that and aren't going to pay him accordingly. 

>> Exactly!! They can get him cheap. 

 

I don't think he has any trade value because of the arbitration eligibility so it's hard to say it's bad asset management; it's not as if they could have gotten anything of consequence for him (or anything at all even). 

>> you're missing the point.  Keep Pitlick, move a more expensive player.

>> If you think he's a marginal 3rd or 4th liner then why not sign him as 1 and keep him to replace a more expensive 3rd or 4th liner, like Byron.  I'd say its bad asset management to keep an older, smaller, often injured more expensive 4th liner and let Pitlick walk.

 

>>What do you think he'll be awarded if he went to arbitration?  If the deal is for over 2 year can he arbitrate it? i.e. a club can only be stuck paying it for 1 year.

 

To reply to some of your points

  • "on pace" is not the same as doing it ... and has little value when a player hasn't done it previously ... IMO "on pace" is mostly useful to see how a player whose season gets shortened was performing compared to his history.
     
  • Habs don't "roll 4 lines avg about 15 mins" ... 5-on-5 last season (about 50 min/gm), Habs forwards with at least 30 games played ranged from 10:36 (Poehling) to 15:55 (Suzuki, who also got 4:35 on PP and PK).
    NOTE: 5-on-5 excludes the roughly 10 min/gm the Habs killed penalties or were on the powerplay.
     
  • It's easy to say keep him and move a more expensive player but is there a guarantee they can? 
    In fact, it is possible it might cost them to move that player (either assets or bad contract back) ... it is not as simple an equation as you present.
     
  • A player can opt for arbitration regardless of what the team initially offers ... if we agree he shouldn't get much why risk an arbitrator buying in to the "on pace" argument and paying him accordingly ... remember, the "comparables" used by arbitrators include contracts overpaying for similar production ... just because he isn't qualified doesn't mean the Habs can't still negotiate with him ... it just eliminates arbitration rights.
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