tomh009 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 4 hours ago, Neech said: Probably gone in the top 2, 3 at the latest. Hard to pass over a big physical centre with a nose for the net. Wouldn't Dach meet that description, too? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Draft on talent, not pedigree. if the talent is there fine, but we shouldn't move someone up cause their dad or their brother, or uncle etc.. A team that drafted Marcel Hossa, Valerie Bure, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Alex Galchenyuk, Luke Tuch, Nathan Beaulieu, Jarred Tinordi, and others should have learned this lesson. If you move a player based on talent? Great. If you are moving a player up above their talent level based on pedigree? No thank you. This is not the way to scout players. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 11 minutes ago, tomh009 said: Wouldn't Dach meet that description, too? He would partly meet it. Dach is big but I wouldn't describe him as overly physical. In his last year of junior Dach had 25 goals in 62 games, Lindstrom had 27 goals in 32 games before he got hurt. Big difference. I think Dach can be a force but can he stay healthy? I sure hope so. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 16 minutes ago, Commandant said: Draft on talent, not pedigree. if the talent is there fine, but we shouldn't move someone up cause their dad or their brother, or uncle etc.. A team that drafted Marcel Hossa, Valerie Bure, Jesperi Kotkaniemi, Alex Galchenyuk, Luke Tuch, Nathan Beaulieu, Jarred Tinordi, and others should have learned this lesson. If you move a player based on talent? Great. If you are moving a player up above their talent level based on pedigree? No thank you. This is not the way to scout players. I don't think anyone would disagree that talent is most important, just saying that guys rankings are perhaps a few notches higher than they should be based on pedigree. I am not sure that the Habs drafted Galchenyuk , KK, or Beaulieu because their relatives played some hockey. Bure played 10 years in the NHL and scored 174 goals (35 one year) which is not terrible for a 2nd round pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: I don't think anyone would disagree that talent is most important, just saying that guys rankings are perhaps a few notches higher than they should be based on pedigree. I am not sure that the Habs drafted Galchenyuk , KK, or Beaulieu because their relatives played some hockey. Bure played 10 years in the NHL and scored 174 goals (35 one year) which is not terrible for a 2nd round pick. Im not saying they drafted them because their relatives played. What i said was pedigree isnt a guarantee of success as those players had pedigree too. Im saying dont move someone up for pedigree. It doesnt mean a lot. This board is overrating Iginla cause of name from where almost all scouting services have him and then basing it on pedigree. Thats nuts to me. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir_Boagalott Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, tomh009 said: Wouldn't Dach meet that description, too? He does and he was. i.e. Dach was the largest C with the most skill in his draft year. There are 2 other C's that were drafted in the top 10 the same year that have a higher ppg avg than he has. 54 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: He would partly meet it. Dach is big but I wouldn't describe him as overly physical. In his last year of junior Dach had 25 goals in 62 games, Lindstrom had 27 goals in 32 games before he got hurt. Big difference. I think Dach can be a force but can he stay healthy? I sure hope so. Unfortunately, Dach seems to have a history on injuries, but hopefully that ends. I say Dach is a great size comparison for Florian. In Dach's last year of Jr he was 195 lbs. Before he had that strength he was tall but way too weak so he was easily manhandled by much smaller guys. Dach is physical and he does fight but I agree he could more physical. I think he's still getting used to being his size and playing against men - there might be a bit of an intimidation factor for young players playing against regular NHLers in their mid 20's and up. Plus, Dach is still sorta light too @ 217 lbs, just wait until he gets to 225+ lbs - he should be more physical and get more points. Their strength is so important and it seems like quite a few posters here somehow don't understand why. Heres why: think of 2 people pushing each other. hypothetical ex: me vs you. If I push you do you move? or, are you strong enough that you resist it? The alternative to that is not only are you strong enough to resist you can push and move me. It's about if a player is easily manhandled, if they get pushed around, or if they have any chance to resist, or are they the manhandler. When Dach and Florina were under 190lbs and in that pushing scenario with the majority of players in the league they were in the category of being manhandled. However, when they were over 190lbs they stopped being mandhandled by most players and could resist and had a chance to win those battles. When they became above average to large in size i.e. strength; they were able to mandhandle under average and somewhat easily pushed around average sized guys. I have no cue what Florian's plans are for next year but if he plays in the OHL I imagine he'll get high 30's low 40's in g's. When he gets to 210 lbs he'll easily manhandle under average and averaged sized guys and he'll push around above average sized guys. Only large guys will have a equal chance at resisting him and he'll have a good chance at stopping them from overpowering him. It will be similar when he's in the NHL at 225+ lbs. Its the same for Dach too. If he gains 7-12lbs the average sized guys that currently have a chance at resisting him will have little to no chance at resisting him. ex: the 6' 200 lbs guys have a chance at not being moved by 217 lbs Dach, but 225+ lbs Dach will be moving them to wherever he wants them to go, or he'll move to wherever he wants to go and they wont be able to stop him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Comparing the 3rd overall pick who instantly went to the NHL at 18 to a guy who was completely passed over in his draft year and became a 4th rounder in his D+1 year, and extrapolating why their scoring potential is similar, is just bad... its really poor analysis. Age means far more than weight. What Dach was doing at 16 and 17 is a hugr difference to what Florian is doing at 19. And 190lb guys are not manhandled in junior hockey. Not against other teenagers. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 10 hours ago, Commandant said: What i said was pedigree isnt a guarantee of success as those players had pedigree too. Im saying dont move someone up for pedigree. It doesnt mean a lot. This board is overrating Iginla cause of name from where almost all scouting services have him and then basing it on pedigree. Thats nuts to me. I agree that talent is by far the most important factor but if a couple guys are really really close in talent evaluation than I might look at pedigree as a deciding factor especially if that pedigree is someone like a Jarome Iginla who was such a character guy as the apple usually doesn't fall far from the tree for some traits. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 3 hours ago, Commandant said: Comparing the 3rd overall pick who instantly went to the NHL at 18 to a guy who was completely passed over in his draft year and became a 4th rounder in his D+1 year, and extrapolating why their scoring potential is similar, is just bad... its really poor analysis. Age means far more than weight. What Dach was doing at 16 and 17 is a hugr difference to what Florian is doing at 19. And 190lb guys are not manhandled in junior hockey. Not against other teenagers. I agree that age is really important, Dach was playing in the NHL when he was 18 and likely should have been kept in junior for another year so he could get stronger. Age is also important from a maturity point of view, some guys are just not ready mentally (ie. KK) whereas a guy like Slaf had to grow up quick living away from home at an early age. Florian has progressed nicely this year but he is scoring goals this year similar to what Dach did when he was 17/18. Plus Dach's playmaking skills were always superior even at a younger age. Progression is not always linear, we will see if Florian continues to progress at a higher level of play next year or whether he has plateaued this year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 Hmmm, i dunno if put much stock into 'pedigree' being a plus? But, having a millionaire former NHLer father likely cant hurt opportunity for development though. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 1 hour ago, DON said: Hmmm, i dunno if put much stock into 'pedigree' being a plus? But, having a millionaire former NHLer father likely cant hurt opportunity for development though. Good genes are real, but those, like the development/training, are already baked into what that prospect is today, it's unlikely that anyone's genes ("pedigree") will result in a huge improvement (relative to other prospects) after the draft. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 2 hours ago, tomh009 said: Good genes are real, but those, like the development/training, are already baked into what that prospect is today, it's unlikely that anyone's genes ("pedigree") will result in a huge improvement (relative to other prospects) after the draft. I think also that if you grow up with an NHL father you see the commitment and dedication that it takes to be successful. It certainly doesn't guarantee anything but it has to help a little. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir_Boagalott Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 7 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: I agree that age is really important, Dach was playing in the NHL when he was 18 and likely should have been kept in junior for another year so he could get stronger. Age is also important from a maturity point of view, some guys are just not ready mentally (ie. KK) whereas a guy like Slaf had to grow up quick living away from home at an early age. Florian has progressed nicely this year but he is scoring goals this year similar to what Dach did when he was 17/18. Plus Dach's playmaking skills were always superior even at a younger age. Progression is not always linear, we will see if Florian continues to progress at a higher level of play next year or whether he has plateaued this year. Age might be important, but its not as important as it is being claimed. Yes, Dach put up better #'s at a lower age, but that isn't taking into account an incredibly important factor. At what age was Dach 6' 3" + ? Dach was likely always 1 of the tallest kids in his class when he was in public school. Meanwhile, neither of the Xhekaj's were the tallest in their class, at least not until Grade 12 or 13. Hence, they had lower output when they were younger and much shorter and weaker. Then, consider this: can a 5' 11" player that's under 170 lbs be an effective Power Forward? By definition of that term the obvious answer is no. A player needs to have the height and muscle to successfully be a Power Forward. To imply that if a player is not a power forward by 18 or some D + obtuse # of years prerequisite is insane and has no relevancy. Dach is still gaining the weight he needs to be a Power Forward. Think of Slaf lately and how he just stands in peoples way and they can't move him. Dach doesn't have the strength to do that to as many players as Slaf currently can. Then think of Anderson's round the outside move he does. Dach doesn't have the strength to do that ... yet. Nor does Florian, but they both will. Neither of them can have that move in their repertoire until they have the strength that's required to pull it off. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habsfan89 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: I think also that if you grow up with an NHL father you see the commitment and dedication that it takes to be successful. It certainly doesn't guarantee anything but it has to help a little. That didn’t turn out good for Daniel Briere’s son now did it. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 3 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said: Age might be important, but its not as important as it is being claimed. Agree to disagree ... a 6'3" player in their draft year is usually less physically mature, and not as strong, as they are even a year later. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 7 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said: That didn’t turn out good for Daniel Briere’s son now did it. It certainly did not. Some kids don't pay attention and that is a great example where the leaf fell a long ways from the tree. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted February 19 Author Share Posted February 19 18 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said: Age might be important, but its not as important as it is being claimed. Yes, Dach put up better #'s at a lower age, but that isn't taking into account an incredibly important factor. At what age was Dach 6' 3" + ? Dach was likely always 1 of the tallest kids in his class when he was in public school. Meanwhile, neither of the Xhekaj's were the tallest in their class, at least not until Grade 12 or 13. Hence, they had lower output when they were younger and much shorter and weaker. I hear what you are saying and I believe what you are saying is that the growth curve (gaining height and weight) can vary for different people and happens to some later in life. That can certainly happen. For example I think Shane Wright was pretty much full grown at age 16 and considered a generational talent then. It appears he plateaued early but he still may very well develop into a very good NHL player. Some guys grow 2-3 inches when they are 18 like Florian and it may take some time for their body to adjust so there may be some later development. Anyway I think I have lost my train of thought and not sure what point I was trying to make earlier and maybe I contradicted myself so I will stop now. LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 6 hours ago, tomh009 said: Good genes are real, but those, like the development/training, are already baked into what that prospect is today, it's unlikely that anyone's genes ("pedigree") will result in a huge improvement (relative to other prospects) after the draft. Exactly. By the time they are 18, and being drafted, take the talent and ignore the name. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 19 Share Posted February 19 54 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said: Age might be important, but its not as important as it is being claimed. Yes, Dach put up better #'s at a lower age, but that isn't taking into account an incredibly important factor. At what age was Dach 6' 3" + ? Dach was likely always 1 of the tallest kids in his class when he was in public school. Meanwhile, neither of the Xhekaj's were the tallest in their class, at least not until Grade 12 or 13. Hence, they had lower output when they were younger and much shorter and weaker. Then, consider this: can a 5' 11" player that's under 170 lbs be an effective Power Forward? By definition of that term the obvious answer is no. A player needs to have the height and muscle to successfully be a Power Forward. To imply that if a player is not a power forward by 18 or some D + obtuse # of years prerequisite is insane and has no relevancy. Dach is still gaining the weight he needs to be a Power Forward. Think of Slaf lately and how he just stands in peoples way and they can't move him. Dach doesn't have the strength to do that to as many players as Slaf currently can. Then think of Anderson's round the outside move he does. Dach doesn't have the strength to do that ... yet. Nor does Florian, but they both will. Neither of them can have that move in their repertoire until they have the strength that's required to pull it off. Age is by far the biggest thing you are missing in comparing 19 year olds to 17 year olds. Its so immense that it makes a dach/Florian comparison meaningless. What Dach was doing at 17 made him a third overall pick. Florian could barely crack juniors, would be passed over in the draft and it would take anothet year to be a 4th rounder. They just arent the same caliber of prospect and pretending they are just says you dont understand prospects. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted February 20 Author Share Posted February 20 Anaheim wins in Buffalo and Ottawa and then gets smacked by the Leafs. I was really hoping for the reverse. Arizona loses again as expected and Ottawa probably get smacked down in Florida. At least some of the teams just ahead of the Habs (ie Minnesota, Calgary) got a couple points. The race for the last wild card spot in the West is looking really tight with a lot of teams having a shot. Might be a few less sellers this year at the deadline. Anyway, saw a great quote on one of the other chat rooms talking about draft positioning. Someone said if they had to choose between Montreal drafting 5 or 6 and Slaf struggling or drafting 8 or 9 with Slaf emerging as a force then they would choose drafting 8 or 9 all day long. I totally agree with that sentiment. The way the 1st line is playing I expect the Habs to stay ahead of Ottawa and Arizona and maybe finish ahead of Buffalo. I expect they draft 7-9. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sir_Boagalott Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 9 minutes ago, Commandant said: Age is by far the biggest thing you are missing in comparing 19 year olds to 17 year olds. Its so immense that it makes a dach/Florian comparison meaningless. What Dach was doing at 17 made him a third overall pick. Florian could barely crack juniors, would be passed over in the draft and it would take anothet year to be a 4th rounder. They just arent the same caliber of prospect and pretending they are just says you dont understand prospects. Pretending I am comparing them as being same caliber of prospect just says you dont understand English. The comparison is they are the same height and were both weak for their height so they struggled but when they gained strength their production skyrocketed. Age is a so important to my argument that I'd be insane to mention Tage Thompson. Height / Weight. 6' 4" / 185 lbs. He's now 6' 6" 220 lbs. He was tall and laughably weak for his size too. If you look at his stats I don't need to draw line to show when he would blow away in a wind storm vs when he wouldn't. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 By D+2, the same AGE florian is now under a PPG in the OHL. Tage thompson spent half the season in the AHL and half in the NHL. What you are completely missing is the difference in those leagues Yes Tage, and others need to add strength to play in pro leagues against grown men. But there is a difference between playing in the AHL and NHL against men and in the OHL against 16-19 year olds. Mike McCarron is a fourth line plug, barely in the NHL. He was dominant in his D+2 season in the OHL too... scoring even more than Xhekaj is. You have this weight obsession, but you miss the fact it doesnt matter in junior. Simply because hes 19, hes going to be bigger and stronger than his opponents and should dominate. He will never have the same strength advantages on a night in and night out basis in his career as he has today. He will be playing against men going forward. This is why you need the kid to show skill when playing against teenagers at 17.... not just to break out at 19 when hes literally one of the biggest, strongest players in the league. He will never have the same advantage of strength at the pro level. Yes he will be strong, but not to the point of dominating opponents as he does now. Hes gonna face grown men on defence that he cant push around like a 16 or 17 year old OHLer Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted February 20 Author Share Posted February 20 One area where age I think has to be taken into account is when you look at the cutoff date for being draft eligible. A player has to be 18 before September 15th to be eligible to be drafted. For example Artyom Levshunov who is one of the highest rated players in the draft has an October birthday which means he is one of the oldest players in the draft and has had more time to develop. Carter Yaremchuk was born September 29th so he is even older. Cole Eiserman on the other hand is an August 29th birthday so he is close to a year younger and one of the youngest draft eligible players. Dickenson and Helenius were born in June and May so they are definitely on the younger side as well. I think when you are a teenager an extra 8-10 months of development can make a big difference in how you are perceived and another variable scouts have to take into account. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfredoh2009 Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 21 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: One area where age I think has to be taken into account is when you look at the cutoff date for being draft eligible. A player has to be 18 before September 15th to be eligible to be drafted. For example Artyom Levshunov who is one of the highest rated players in the draft has an October birthday which means he is one of the oldest players in the draft and has had more time to develop. Carter Yaremchuk was born September 29th so he is even older. Cole Eiserman on the other hand is an August 29th birthday so he is close to a year younger and one of the youngest draft eligible players. Dickenson and Helenius were born in June and May so they are definitely on the younger side as well. I think when you are a teenager an extra 8-10 months of development can make a big difference in how you are perceived and another variable scouts have to take into account. I agree and also with most of the points made by @Sir_Boagalott on physical-maturity Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted February 20 Share Posted February 20 1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said: I agree and also with most of the points made by @Sir_Boagalott on physical-maturity Of course you do.... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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