Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 After 3 straight losses it's perhaps time to put away any illusions of the Habs making the playoffs and look ahead to the draft. I am guessing the Habs will be drafting somewhere in the 6-12 range. I am 99.99% certain they won't draft a goalie with that pick. I am a believer in drafting BPA but they are very deep in defense prospects so unless the next Quinn Hughes falls into their lap I would guess they are drafting a forward. One player in that range who has really impressed me is Berkly Catton. They could also use Calgary's #1 pick (from the Monahan trade) if it is between 20 - 32. Calgary would have to make the playoffs and likely win a round for that to happen and I think that is unlikely. The Habs will most likely be sellers at the deadline so perhaps there is an opportunity to add a late 1st round pick. Happy New Year Hab's fans! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Calgarys pick is 2025 (unless 1st overall and then its 2026) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prime Minister Koivu Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 Doesn’t the Calgary pick turn into a Florida pick in that scenario? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 2 hours ago, Commandant said: Calgarys pick is 2025 (unless 1st overall and then its 2026) Montreal can actually elect to take it in 2024 though if it falls between 20 and 32 though I doubt they would even if that picked landed in that range. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, Prime Minister Koivu said: Doesn’t the Calgary pick turn into a Florida pick in that scenario? It depends on when the Florida pick conveys and then is dependent on where each one falls. It could be CGY or FLA's pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, dlbalr said: It depends on when the Florida pick conveys and then is dependent on where each one falls. It could be CGY or FLA's pick. Exactly, it is complicated. One thing that's very probable is that Florida's won't finish bottom 10 this year so their pick will transfer to Philly this year which means Calgary get's Florida's 1st round pick in 2025. The most likely scenario is that Montreal get's either Calgary's or Florida's 1st round pick in 2025. Could be Florida's if Calgary finishes bottom 10 (except for 1st pick overall) and Florida doesn't finish bottom 10. If they are both outside bottom 10 then Montreal gets the better pick (most likely scenario). It took me awhile to figure this out. https://montrealhockeynow.com/2022/08/19/breaking-down-all-conditions-in-monahan-trade/ Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted January 1 Author Share Posted January 1 1 hour ago, dlbalr said: Montreal can actually elect to take it in 2024 though if it falls between 20 and 32 though I doubt they would even if that picked landed in that range. That is correct, I wasn't clear on the 2024 option in my original post. I agree that they would likely defer to 2025 as that pick could be higher and from what I have read (who really knows) 2025 is supposed to be a better draft year than 2024. Hughes seems to be stockpiling picks for 2025. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted January 1 Share Posted January 1 As per Capfriendly, i wont even try and sort it all out, makes my brain hurt. (I hope the very last line is what plays out, after Flames blow it up this summer, assume is best return.) Montreal Canadiens Acquire: Sean Monahan 2025 1st round pick (CGY) [Conditional]* *Conditions: 1. If CGY’s 2024 1st round pick is between 20 and 32, MTL can take that pick instead. Result: TBD Scenario: In the event CGY receives FLA’s 2025 1st round pick: 1. If both CGY AND FLA’s picks are NOT top 10, MTL will receive the better of the CGY and FLA 2025 1st round picks. Result: TBD 2. If CGY’s pick is top 10, AND FLA’s pick is NOT top 10, MTL receives FLA’s pick. Result: TBD Scenario: In the event CGY does NOT receive FLA’s 1st round pick: Sub-scenario: CGY’s pick is NOT top 10 1. MTL will receive the CGY pick, and 2. If FLA’s pick is not top 10, is a better pick than CGY’s, and was transferred to another team due to prior conditions, MTL will also receive CGY’s 2025 4th round pick. Result: TBD Sub-scenario: CGY’s pick is top 10: 1. If CGY’s pick is 1st overall, MTL will receive CGY’s 2025 3rd, and the better of CGY and FLA’s 2026 1st round pick. Result: TBD2. If CGY’s pick is 2nd to 10th, MTL receives CGY’s 2025 1st round pick. Result: TBD Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helmethead Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I have come to accept that I won’t figure out when we make that infamous 1st round pick till we actually make that pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prime Minister Koivu Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 This deal can actually drop to a 2026 pick? How man beverages were consumed during this negotiation? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 39 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said: How man beverages were consumed during this negotiation? Perhaps many. LOL It's almost like their goal was to come up with a deal that is as complicated as possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BCHabnut Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 3 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said: This deal can actually drop to a 2026 pick? How man beverages were consumed during this negotiation? Looks more like something one would come up with while on lsd. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 I think it’s fairly safe to say that the following won’t happen: 1) don’t see Calgary finishing 20-32 this year 2) Florida is not going to finish bottom 10 this year, so Phullunwill get that pick, which means Calgary will get their 2025 pick. 3) If Huberdeau continues to suck and the flames get gutted by free agent departure, they will probably be picking in the bottom 10, and I really don’t see Florida finishing bottom 10 next year either, so we probably get Florida’s pick next year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 8 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said: I think it’s fairly safe to say that the following won’t happen: 1) don’t see Calgary finishing 20-32 this year 2) Florida is not going to finish bottom 10 this year, so Phullunwill get that pick, which means Calgary will get their 2025 pick. 3) If Huberdeau continues to suck and the flames get gutted by free agent departure, they will probably be picking in the bottom 10, and I really don’t see Florida finishing bottom 10 next year either, so we probably get Florida’s pick next year. That is a very likely scenario. It's probably better if Calgary finishes with something like the 12th overall pick in 2025 since Montreal gets the better of the 2 picks if they are both outside the top 10 and Florida is likely too good to finish bottom 10 in 2025 as you said. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 9 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: That is a very likely scenario. It's probably better if Calgary finishes with something like the 12th overall pick in 2025 since Montreal gets the better of the 2 picks if they are both outside the top 10 and Florida is likely too good to finish bottom 10 in 2025 as you said. More like 11th, so the Habs both get the pick AND have a shot at first overall in the lottery. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 45 minutes ago, GHT120 said: More like 11th, so the Habs both get the pick AND have a shot at first overall in the lottery. Yes, 11th would be better than 12th but if Calgary's pick is 1st overall in 2025 then the pick reverts to 2026. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 48 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: Yes, 11th would be better than 12th but if Calgary's pick is 1st overall in 2025 then the pick reverts to 2026. true ... my bad ... but so would ANY lottery slot from 11-16 if Calgary wins one of the lottery draws ... 9th would work if two teams behind Calgary win the lottery draws; 10th if one won. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 6 minutes ago, GHT120 said: true ... my bad ... but so would ANY lottery slot from 11-16 if Calgary wins one of the lottery draws ... 9th would work if two teams behind Calgary win the lottery draws; 10th if one won. Even if a pick from 12-16 won the lottery draw they could only move up 10 spots I believe so they could not get the #1 spot. I think the bottom line here is that the best possible scenario for the Habs in 2025 is to draft #11 with the Calgary pick since it's very unlikely Florida will be in the bottom 10. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 We are already talking about what we think is the most realistic thing to happen. Cause there are other options with that pick. Since we are talking about realistic hypotheticals, why are we worried about a team winning a lottery in 11th or lower (something with less than 5% chance of happening). Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: Even if a pick from 12-16 won the lottery draw they could only move up 10 spots I believe so they could not get the #1 spot. But Calgary finishing from 12-16 could still end up with a Top Ten pick if they win the lottery ... if they finished 9th overall in the standings two teams from 11-16 both winning would push Calgary out of the Top Ten ... if 10th, one team from 11-16 winning the lottery would push them out of the Top Ten ... too many variables at this point Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 20 minutes ago, Commandant said: We are already talking about what we think is the most realistic thing to happen. Cause there are other options with that pick. Since we are talking about realistic hypotheticals, why are we worried about a team winning a lottery in 11th or lower (something with less than 5% chance of happening). Worried ... no ... just noting that there are tons of variables. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 57 minutes ago, GHT120 said: But Calgary finishing from 12-16 could still end up with a Top Ten pick if they win the lottery ... if they finished 9th overall in the standings two teams from 11-16 both winning would push Calgary out of the Top Ten ... if 10th, one team from 11-16 winning the lottery would push them out of the Top Ten ... too many variables at this point Yes, could still end up with top 10 and then Montreal likely gets Florida's pick. And yes a lot of variables. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 1 hour ago, Commandant said: We are already talking about what we think is the most realistic thing to happen. Cause there are other options with that pick. Since we are talking about realistic hypotheticals, why are we worried about a team winning a lottery in 11th or lower (something with less than 5% chance of happening). Because we are fans (short for fanatics) so we like to analyze every possibility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted January 2 Share Posted January 2 12 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: Because we are fans (short for fanatics) so we like to analyze every possibility. But we already threw out the possibility of Florida having a bad season? So we aren't analyzing every possibility. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted January 2 Author Share Posted January 2 Just now, Commandant said: But we already threw out the possibility of Florida having a bad season? You are absolutely correct with that observation. They could have some bad injuries etc. next year. Back to the drawing board. LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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