Commandant Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 6 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said: As we’ve discussed before, the Montreal fanbase has a culture of being too hard on rushing defencemen in general, unless they are elite-tier. Mattheson is a good second-tier offensive D-man. He gets disproportionate grief for his limitations. I’ve had my issues with these stat cards on many occasions, and while I agree that Savard sucked last night, WiFi had a strong game IMHO. In fact I remember thinking to myself that he has really steadied himself out over the course of this season and appreciating that he was playing quality minutes. That epic fight helped too. On Suzuki, I noticed the long shifts too, and wonder if he is stretching out his own shifts. If so, MSL needs to rein him in. Not least because it sets a terrible example. Dvorak in the SO was lunacy but Devo HAS been a hot hand of late. Probably a case of a coach overthinking it. You’ve got Laine on your team, FFS. The Habs mostly looked sort of out of it in the shootout if you ask me. They didn’t seem to come at the G with conviction. Then again I generally dislike it when guys play it slow, which they all did. Move with speed, like a breakaway, would be my modus operandi; but I have no idea what the stats show about that. Laine took the third shot and scored. Dvorak took the 4th. And as said hes 42% in shootouts before last night. Best percentage of anyone on the team. Shootouts are so different from 5v5 hockey. Its such a specialized skill that we cant just assume our best scorers at even strength are the best shootout guys. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 22 minutes ago, Commandant said: Laine took the third shot and scored. Dvorak took the 4th. And as said hes 42% in shootouts before last night. Best percentage of anyone on the team. Shootouts are so different from 5v5 hockey. Its such a specialized skill that we cant just assume our best scorers at even strength are the best shootout guys. Oy, need my morning coffee. Fair point, I guess, on Devo. Partly guys like me and Habs29 are probably traumatized by the Ray Bourque incident in 1998 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterface Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 12 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said: Josh Anderson. Unappreciated because he’s overpaid, but I just want to put in a word for him. He battles every night and I guarantee you other teams hate playing against him. Yes, he came in like a wrecking ball. He needs to be physical to be his most effective. He’s been doing that from about the beginning of November (Washington game). The games he noticeably goes out of his way to hit hard and cause havoc seem to be his best. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 4 minutes ago, Butterface said: Yes, he came in like a wrecking ball. He needs to be physical to be his most effective. He’s been doing that from about the beginning of November (Washington game). The games he noticeably goes out of his way to hit hard and cause havoc seem to be his best. Thanks for that traumatizing image. He’s reconfigured himself as a third-liner with some scoring upside. And frankly I think he is great in that role. If he were making $3 mil a year, he’d probably be one of our most popular players based on his play this season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 1 hour ago, Commandant said: i thought Matheson played really well other than the selfish penalty. That was the big mistake. But overall he was good defensively against MacK and co on that line. On Hutson, he played over 25 minutes last night. Hes played more games than hes ever played in his life, and we want him to take 2 minute shifts on PPs and play even more. If you are concerned on burning out an NHL vet who plays 82 games every year with a couple extra minutes, why do you want even more minutes for a guy who could have already hit the rookie wall if not for the 2 week break at 4 nations? I dont understand how you can want less for suzuki cause of burnout but more for the rookie? Makes no sense. Xhekaj/Savard is a problem. No doubt about that. Having Guhle back would be a big boost. Given the way the other pairs are playing, Id likely sit savard and xhekaj on a rotating basis and have guhle to stabilize that pair. Hutson and Struble should stay together, as should Matheson/Carrier. Next year we need another RD and savard is really showing his age. Not saying leave Hutson out for the full 2 min on every PP. but there have been nights when they never got a chance to setup and they do the switch (except Suzuki). Last night was an anomaly, it’s pretty rare for us to have more PP than PK’s, so Hutson got extra time from the extra PP’s we had and because down 3 goals, Marty knows he is one our best guys to generate offense. There have been lotsa of games when we should have kept Hutson out there longer. Hutson played more than usual last night, and was out there a lot when they were trying to get things going - we also had more PP than normal. He doesn’t play 28 min every game (if it wasn’t for the Slaf penalty - he may have played 30 min). He may be a rookie, but he is already our best dman. Makar is usually out their for the full PP, as is Quinn Hughes. Suzuki has the toughest matchups - Hutson doesn’t. On the PP Suzuki also has to skate harder than the other forwards, and is usually the main puck carrier from our end to get zone entry in the offensive zone - after getting the hand off from Hutson. Other than Hutson, he is also the only forward who is moving around on the PP. Add that to the fact that he is generally going against the top line, I’d say he is going to burn out faster. If it wasn’t for that penalty in OT, he probably would have been close to 25 min. There is much greater pressure on him to carry the team than there is on Hutson. we took way to long to replace Matheson with Hutson on the PP. I think we need to keep deploying him more in better situations. I get having Matheson out there with the top line on the tough matchups. What I don’t get is when the top line has a good matchup, we usually don’t have Hutson on with them. Hutson spends way too much time out with that Evans and Newhook line. While the Newhook line has looked better lately, it’s the weak link in our lineup right now. Roy looks promising the last couple of games, but while a Newhook has looked a lot better after the break, the chemistry with Laine just isn’t there and unfortunately we don’t have any options. Newhook reminds me a lot of Courtnall. Another smallish speedy centre that ended up becoming a winger. He also struggled with his hand and brain not keeping up with his feet. Courtnall took a while to develop offensively and eventually after moving on from Montreal, became a better defensive player. I’m hoping Newhook will take a similar step and improve offensively, but I don’t see it happening at centre. next year we HAVE to get a legit 2C to take the pressure of Suzuki. In the meantime, we need to manage Suzuki’s ice time better - keeping him off the PK is a good start (although, I think that’s the only thing that keeps him from being a legit Selke candidate). I think the playoff drive is going to go down to the wire and we aren’t getting into the playoffs, or be that successful if he has nothing left in the tank. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterface Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 22 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said: Thanks for that traumatizing image. He’s reconfigured himself as a third-liner with some scoring upside. And frankly I think he is great in that role. If he were making $3 mil a year, he’d probably be one of our most popular players based on his play this season. You’re welcome. I’m curious what happens to Anderson and Gally. They are playing well now and we might not have room for one or both starting next year, and certainly no room by 2027-28. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said: As we’ve discussed before, the Montreal fanbase has a culture of being too hard on rushing defencemen in general, unless they are elite-tier. Mattheson is a good second-tier offensive D-man. He gets disproportionate grief for his limitations. I’ve had my issues with these stat cards on many occasions, and while I agree that Savard sucked last night, WiFi had a strong game IMHO. In fact I remember thinking to myself that he has really steadied himself out over the course of this season and appreciating that he was playing quality minutes. That epic fight helped too. On Suzuki, I noticed the long shifts too, and wonder if he is stretching out his own shifts. If so, MSL needs to rein him in. Not least because it sets a terrible example. Dvorak in the SO was lunacy but Devo HAS been a hot hand of late. Probably a case of a coach overthinking it. You’ve got Laine on your team, FFS. The Habs mostly looked sort of out of it in the shootout if you ask me. They didn’t seem to come at the G with conviction. Then again I generally dislike it when guys play it slow, which they all did. Move with speed, like a breakaway, would be my modus operandi; but I have no idea what the stats show about that. Totally agree about how they appeared on the SO. I was shocked at Caufield’s attempt. He HAS to be better than that - he IS better than that. Not sure if they were just happy to get the point and survive the OT penalty, or the nerves from the playoff race. I don’t think I’ve seen Caufield less confident than he did on that shootout. I get Dvorak has scored a lot lately - pretty much 40% of his production this year has been in the past week or so. But after Laine saved the day with his goal, you don’t go with Dvorak. Have to go with skill. Also should have treated as a development opportunity- go with Slaf - had two goals and had looked good. Roy has scored two straight games, give him the chance. Hell, send out Hutson, the guy has more moves than anyone on this team and he’d be FORCED to take a shot - can’t pass on the shootout! I think the days of us having to send out Anderson, Armia and the role players for shootouts are over - unless you get into the long multi-round shootout marathons! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 38 minutes ago, Butterface said: Yes, he came in like a wrecking ball. He needs to be physical to be his most effective. He’s been doing that from about the beginning of November (Washington game). The games he noticeably goes out of his way to hit hard and cause havoc seem to be his best. Why, just why? Why? I’m trying to have my breakfast! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 46 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said: Oy, need my morning coffee. Fair point, I guess, on Devo. Partly guys like me and Habs29 are probably traumatized by the Ray Bourque incident in 1998 Yep. I don’t have issues with having a skilled dman out there, but not when you have Gretzky and much more skilled forwards on the bench. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Butterface Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 16 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said: Why, just why? Why? I’m trying to have my breakfast! I put wrecking ball and Anderson in same thought. When I think wrecking ball, Miley pops into my head. Anderson was just wrong place, wrong time. I’m just as traumatized as you two. I’m seeing a psychiatrist next week. I’ll bring it up. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 26 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said: Totally agree about how they appeared on the SO. I was shocked at Caufield’s attempt. He HAS to be better than that - he IS better than that. Not sure if they were just happy to get the point and survive the OT penalty, or the nerves from the playoff race. I don’t think I’ve seen Caufield less confident than he did on that shootout. I get Dvorak has scored a lot lately - pretty much 40% of his production this year has been in the past week or so. But after Laine saved the day with his goal, you don’t go with Dvorak. Have to go with skill. Also should have treated as a development opportunity- go with Slaf - had two goals and had looked good. Roy has scored two straight games, give him the chance. Hell, send out Hutson, the guy has more moves than anyone on this team and he’d be FORCED to take a shot - can’t pass on the shootout! I think the days of us having to send out Anderson, Armia and the role players for shootouts are over - unless you get into the long multi-round shootout marathons! Isnt using the guy who has scored a bigger percentage of his shootout attempts than anyone else on the squad going with skill? Scoring in the shootout and scoring at 5v5 are not the exact same skills. Similar sure, and some can do both but its not exactly the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 21 minutes ago, Butterface said: I put wrecking ball and Anderson in same thought. When I think wrecking ball, Miley pops into my head. Anderson was just wrong place, wrong time. I’m just as traumatized as you two. I’m seeing a psychiatrist next week. I’ll bring it up. You definitely can use the professional help. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xXx..CK..xXx Posted March 23 Author Share Posted March 23 I didn’t particularly have an issue with Dvorak taking the shot in the moment. There wasn’t a thought that crossed my mind in a negative way in the moment. He tried to pull a “Koivu” and failed. With that being said, while Dvorak is indeed one of the best in the shootout on the team statistically, (6/15), he was 6/9 in Arizona and now 0/6 for the Habs. 66.67% on Arizona 0% on the Habs 40% overall (~42% prior to the shot) There’s no real reason to argue the reason behind St. Louis’ choice but it’s hard to believe he was going with the stats, if he’s aware that Dvorak has never scored a shootout goal for us. With that being said, Slafkovský is 1/5 in his career and Hutson is 0/1. It’s easy to say in retrospect what should have happened, though I am sure there were indeed people scratching and pulling their hair out as soon as they Saw Dvorak lineup, but it’s hard to genuinely believe Slaf or Hutson would have done better in the situation based on their history. This wasn’t a time for a teaching moment. Had Dvorak not lost an edge (though, yes he did), he probably would have put it in. I see why people are upset about the choice but I also see why it happened and there wasn’t such an obvious better choice as people are saying. Not a huge gaffe in decision making if at all, really. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 As for suzuki vs caufield. There is a big difference in conditioning between a 25 year old who has played #1 minutes over 82 games multiple times in his career and a 20 year old who played about 40 games a year the last two years in college. Endurance is something you build up Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 2 minutes ago, xXx..CK..xXx said: I didn’t particularly have an issue with Dvorak taking the shot in the moment. There wasn’t a thought that crossed my mind in a negative way in the moment. He tried to pull a “Koivu” and failed. With that being said, while Dvorak is indeed one of the best in the shootout on the team statistically, (6/15), he was 6/9 in Arizona and now 0/6 for the Habs. 66.67% on Arizona 0% on the Habs 40% overall (~42% prior to the shot) There’s no real reason to argue the reason behind St. Louis’ choice but it’s hard to believe he was going with the stats, if he’s aware that Dvorak has never scored a shootout goal for us. With that being said, Slafkovský is 1/5 in his career and Hutson is 0/1. It’s easy to say in retrospect what should have happened, though I am sure there were indeed people scratching and pulling their hair out as soon as they Saw Dvorak lineup, but it’s hard to genuinely believe Slaf or Hutson would have done better in the situation based on their history. This wasn’t a time for a teaching moment. Had Dvorak not lost an edge (though, yes he did), he probably would have put it in. I see why people are upset about the choice but I also see why it happened and there wasn’t such an obvious better choice as people are saying. Not a huge gaffe in decision making, really. Just to be clear, I'm not, and was not, in a rage about it. I just found it a head-scratcher. 32 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said: Totally agree about how they appeared on the SO. I was shocked at Caufield’s attempt. He HAS to be better than that - he IS better than that. Not sure if they were just happy to get the point and survive the OT penalty, or the nerves from the playoff race. I don’t think I’ve seen Caufield less confident than he did on that shootout. I get Dvorak has scored a lot lately - pretty much 40% of his production this year has been in the past week or so. But after Laine saved the day with his goal, you don’t go with Dvorak. Have to go with skill. Also should have treated as a development opportunity- go with Slaf - had two goals and had looked good. Roy has scored two straight games, give him the chance. Hell, send out Hutson, the guy has more moves than anyone on this team and he’d be FORCED to take a shot - can’t pass on the shootout! I think the days of us having to send out Anderson, Armia and the role players for shootouts are over - unless you get into the long multi-round shootout marathons! Sometimes we these shootouts you can almost feel that it's lost before it starts. Caufield in particular just did not give me a good feeling right from his first step. Something in the body language, I guess. I wonder if he felt he'd had a poor game and was mentally not quite there. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 32 minutes ago, Butterface said: I’m curious what happens to Anderson and Gally. They are playing well now and we might not have room for one or both starting next year, and certainly no room by 2027-28. Wonder whether Vancouver GM Patrick Allvin is frustrated enough to trade Petterrson (45% retained*, $5.8M) for Gallagher and a 2029 first? I'd even throw in Mesar, RHP and Pezzetta. 😜 * - concession that it doesn't have to be the full 50%😉 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 55 minutes ago, Butterface said: You’re welcome. I’m curious what happens to Anderson and Gally. They are playing well now and we might not have room for one or both starting next year, and certainly no room by 2027-28. Guys like that have great value to contending teams on playoff runs, which is where we hope to be by then. Assuming no decline in their play - a big assumption indeed - we should keep at least one of them around. Of course I am always less confident than most that all prospects will automatically 'hit' and become regulars in the lineup. 16 minutes ago, GHT120 said: Wonder whether Vancouver GM Patrick Allvin is frustrated enough to trade Petterrson (45% retained*, $5.8M) for Gallagher and a 2029 first? I'd even throw in Mesar, RHP and Pezzetta. 😜 * - concession that it doesn't have to be the full 50%😉 Ahahahahahaaa, even if the trade made a modicum of sense, I seriously doubt that Van will accept retention on that contract. That's not how their ownership rolls. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Canadiens thrive with an atypical shutdown pairing of Mike Matheson and Alexandre Carrier - The Athletic "... In fact, St. Louis has turned Matheson into the exact opposite of the player he was in Florida, a player relied upon to play difficult minutes against difficult opponents in high-leverage situations. And Matheson is thriving in that role." Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 3 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said: Ahahahahahaaa, even if the trade made a modicum of sense, I seriously doubt that Van will accept retention on that contract. That's not how their ownership rolls. HENCE, the emojis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted March 23 Share Posted March 23 Gallagher is likely to score 20 goals this year, while playing 3rd line defensive minutes and under a rising cap. He may have been overpaid in recent years. Is he overpaid today? I'm not so sure. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xXx..CK..xXx Posted March 23 Author Share Posted March 23 With multiple years left on their contracts, Gallagher and Anderson will be here next year and play the full season with us (barring injuries or potentially a major step back from the franchise). Not sure what there’s to wonder about. Of course Hughes will move them if someone overpays for them or they are part of the “perfect player” package that fans are requesting, but that’s extremely hypothetical. All signs point to those two staying within the lineup. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
xXx..CK..xXx Posted March 23 Author Share Posted March 23 Player of the game between Newhook Drouin Lehkonen It was pretty close from all three players. They all ended up with 1 assist and a few peripherals. Drouin played the most minutes by far, therefore more heavily relied upon but was also a -2 when neither Newhook nor Lehkonen were minus players. Heading into the third period, it was between Lehkonen and Drouin but from that point on Newhook kind of took over. I was leaning towards choosing him as the player between the three but after wanting to do a little more analysis and account for Habs fan bias, I believe it could be Lehkonen after having checked the game cards. Again my choice would have been Newhook but quiet and efficient Lehkonen may be the official choice. Then again, Newhook seems to have driven his line a little more with better individual numbers within the game cards. Lehkonen was somewhat carried by his linemates. It’s really an arguable decision seeing as Colorado also won. After checking more individual advanced stats final answer: Alex Newhook. Newhook: expected goals .05, expected goals per 60 1.97, expected assists/points per 60 3.94, shot attempts 9 Lehkonen: expected goals .02, expected goals per 60 .9, expected assists/points per 60 3.63, shot attempts 6 Newhook’s assist was also primary. There is defensive play that comes into factor but Newhook wasn’t poor defensively individually. Lehkonen’s corsi and fenwick were also higher but I believe were amplified by team play. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alfredoh2009 Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 5 hours ago, xXx..CK..xXx said: Player of the game between Newhook Drouin Lehkonen It was pretty close from all three players. They all ended up with 1 assist and a few peripherals. Drouin played the most minutes by far, therefore more heavily relied upon but was also a -2 when neither Newhook nor Lehkonen were minus players. Heading into the third period, it was between Lehkonen and Drouin but from that point on Newhook kind of took over. I was leaning towards choosing him as the player between the three but after wanting to do a little more analysis and account for Habs fan bias, I believe it could be Lehkonen after having checked the game cards. Again my choice would have been Newhook but quiet and efficient Lehkonen may be the official choice. Then again, Newhook seems to have driven his line a little more with better individual numbers within the game cards. Lehkonen was somewhat carried by his linemates. It’s really an arguable decision seeing as Colorado also won. After checking more individual advanced stats final answer: Alex Newhook. Newhook: expected goals .05, expected goals per 60 1.97, expected assists/points per 60 3.94, shot attempts 9 Lehkonen: expected goals .02, expected goals per 60 .9, expected assists/points per 60 3.63, shot attempts 6 Newhook’s assist was also primary. There is defensive play that comes into factor but Newhook wasn’t poor defensively individually. Lehkonen’s corsi and fenwick were also higher but I believe were amplified by team play. great analysis, thank you for sharing your thought process too. My amateur fan “eye test” tells me Newhook too. Drouin had a few flashes and made some nice plays but was inconsequential. Lehks was strong on puck and drove the net a few times but showed the cement hands he had as a Hab. Newhook remains snake bitten and cannot bank on his chances, but in the end he was more visible on the ice to my fanboy eyes than the others Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 6 hours ago, Commandant said: Gallagher is likely to score 20 goals this year, while playing 3rd line defensive minutes and under a rising cap. He may have been overpaid in recent years. Is he overpaid today? I'm not so sure. It's still an overpay but it's not a ridiculous overpay. It's one you can live with given the effort and leadership he provides on a nightly basis. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brindavis Posted March 24 Share Posted March 24 (edited) Brock Nelson is a UFA this summer, is he worth a look at for a 2nd line centre? Currently on a £6 mill/6 year contract. 3 yr contract until Hage is ready, put Dach back on the wing and Newhook to 3rd line centre. Sure looked good against us on Saturday. Edited March 24 by brindavis Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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