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Trizzak

2019 Free Agents: Who goes? Who stays? What's the price?

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UFAs:

Jordan Weal (Signed - $1 400 000, 2 years)

Nate Thompson (Signed - $1 000 000, 1 year)

 

Jordie Benn

Christian Folin (Signed - $800 000, 1 year)

 

Antti Niemi (Not being signed)

 

RFAs:

Joel Armia (Signed - $2 600 000, 2 years)

Arturri Lehkonen ($2 400 000, 2 years)

Charles Hudon (Received QO)

Michael McCarron (Received QO)

Daniel Audette (No qualifying offer)

Hunter Shinkurak (No qualifying offer)

 

Brett Kulak (Signed - $1 850 000, 3 years)

Mike Reilly (Received QO)

Gustav Olofsson (Signed - $700 000, 1 year)

Xavier Ouellet (Signed - $700 000, 1 year)

Brett Lernout (No qualifying offer)

 

So far only Antti Niemi has been informed he'll not be offered a contract for next season.

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I could take or leave any of those guys.  Armia might get a raise depending ohn what he makes.  Lehkonen hasn't really earned one yet. Even though I like the way he plays a lot. You gotta get points now and then too. 

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Predictions:

 

UFAs:

Jordan Weal (stays 1.5 million per year) 

Nate Thompson (walks)

Jodie Benn (walks)

Christian Folin (stays 800,000 per year)

Antti Niemi (walks)

 

RFAs:

Joel Armia (stays 2.1 million per year)

Arturri Lehkonen (stays 1.5 million per year)

Charles Hudon (traded)

Michael McCarron (stays, 900,000 per year)

Daniel Audette (walks, no qualifying offer)

Hunter Shinkurak (walks, no qualifying offer)

 

Brett Kulak (stays 2 million per year)

Mike Reilly (stays 850,000 per year)

Gustav Olofsson (stays 800,000 per year)

Xavier Ouellet (walks, no qualifying offer)

Brett Lernout (walks, no qualifying offer)

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10 hours ago, Trizzak said:

UFAs:

Jordan Weal (hope he stays)

Nate Thompson (can do without)

 

Jodie Benn (hope he stays)

Christian Folin (hope he stays)

 

Antti Niemi (retire)

 

RFAs:

Joel Armia(no brainer)

Arturri Lehkonen (no brainer)

Charles Hudon (can do without)

Michael McCarron (can do without))

Daniel Audette (was a terrible pick to begin with, how do you spell nepotism)

Hunter Shinkurak (dont care)

 

Brett Kulak (hope he stays)

Mike Reilly (can do without, dont like his play at all)

Gustav Olofsson (i guess try and resign)

Xavier Ouellet (can do without)

Brett Lernout (Can do withoiut)

 

Salaries, not a clue and who should be kept for Laval also not sure.

 

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Define... was a terrible pick to begin with.... the guy was drafted in the 5th round. 

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48 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Define... was a terrible pick to begin with.... the guy was drafted in the 5th round. 

Am sure Donald Audette, as Quebec amateur scout was unbiased in his assessment (right up there with LaCarriere hiring his son (out of nowhere) as assistant coach of Hamilton).

So why not waste 5th round  picks I guess, they did again this year with Samual Houde...and we can know why he was chosen, after picking 9 non-french kids, had to take at least one Quebec born.

But like you hint, 5th round picks I guess are pretty worthless and can be wasted.

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4 hours ago, BCHabnut said:

I could take or leave any of those guys.  Armia might get a raise depending ohn what he makes.  Lehkonen hasn't really earned one yet. Even though I like the way he plays a lot. You gotta get points now and then too. 

I think your nuts if you don’t like Lehkonen haha. 

 

He might not have crazy point totals, but he’s an absolute dog on the puck, constantly causing turnovers and outworking his opponents. On top of that the guy still did put up 30 points on usually the 3rd or forth line. Love the player personally.

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1 hour ago, DON said:

Am sure Donald Audette, as Quebec amateur scout was unbiased in his assessment (right up there with LaCarriere hiring his son (out of nowhere) as assistant coach of Hamilton).

So why not waste 5th round  picks I guess, they did again this year with Samual Houde...and we can know why he was chosen, after picking 9 non-french kids, had to take at least one Quebec born.

But like you hint, 5th round picks I guess are pretty worthless and can be wasted.

 

I don't think it was wasted. 


He was a huge scorer in junior.

He scored 39 points in 71 AHL games this season.  He's not horrible.


He developed into an AHL journeyman instead of an NHL player, but the kid had offensive skills. High end offensive potential that didn't develop due to other deficiencies in his game. 

 

Thats what you get in that round.  A player who has one or two skills, and more deficiencies, and you hope that you can develop something out of that.  No perfect players are left, and the chances of being an NHL player are low. 


He was a worthy player to pick at that point, regardless of who his father was.

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Consider


The Habs drafted 1 QMJHL player in 2018 (11 picks)

The Habs drafted 0 QMJHL players in 2017 (7 picks)

The Habs drafted 0 QMJHL players in 2016 (6 picks)

The Habs drafted 1 QMJHL player in 2015 (5 picks)
The Habs drafted 1 QMJHL player in 2014 (6 picks)
The Habs drafted 4 QMJHL players in 2013 (8 picks)
The Habs drafted 1 QMJHL players in 2012

So total... 8 QMJHL players in 7 drafts under Bergevin. including 2 years where they didn't take any.

 

Tampa has drafted 10 players out of the QMJHL in 52 picks in the same time frame.  Only once in that same span did they not draft a QMJHL player.

 

San Jose 8

Colorado 6

Calgary 6

Arizona 6

 

there are a bunch of teams with lots of Q draft picks over the last 7 years.

 

So tell me exactly why we believe that these aren't the best picks but are token picks when made by the Habs, but not other organizations?


 

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4 hours ago, Meller93 said:

I think your nuts if you don’t like Lehkonen haha. 

 

He might not have crazy point totals, but he’s an absolute dog on the puck, constantly causing turnovers and outworking his opponents. On top of that the guy still did put up 30 points on usually the 3rd or forth line. Love the player personally.

I'm a fan as well. I just don't think he has earned big money. You gotta get points. 

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15 minutes ago, BCHabnut said:

I'm a fan as well. I just don't think he has earned big money. You gotta get points. 

Oh, if you’re arguing big money than no. I just mean I think he’s earned a contract, and I wouldn’t be afraid of giving him term either of he wanted it. Just not at a high AAV

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Ya I worded that badly.  I meant that of the group I would want ro keep armia and Lehkonen first.  But lehkonen shouldn't get big money. 

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Lehkonen and armia will be resigned, 

 

I assume Weal will be offered a contract

 

Juulson has had a bunch of injuries, so offering Follin a contract may not be a bad idea, same with Kulak. 

 

Other than that, MB should be looking ot land LD to play big minutes, and a back up goalie who can give the habs a chance to play him and get points in 20 games or so. 

 

I would look to move hudon over the summer

 

The rest are AHL players 

 

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1 hour ago, Commandant said:

 

So tell me exactly why we believe that these aren't the best picks but are token picks when made by the Habs, but not other organizations?


 

Does Audette's father scout for other organizations?

Would you of chosen 16g 32pt Houde? They hadnt taken a french kid in 2017 nor the 1st 9 picks of 2018, i say he was token pick to keep RDS and other locals from freaking out.

At least undrafted Teasdale looks like a better prospect.

 

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7 hours ago, Commandant said:

Predictions:

 

UFAs:

Jordan Weal (stays 1.5 million per year) 

Nate Thompson (walks)

Jodie Benn (walks)

Christian Folin (stays 800,000 per year)

Antti Niemi (walks)

 

RFAs:

Joel Armia (stays 2.1 million per year)

Arturri Lehkonen (stays 1.5 million per year)

Charles Hudon (traded)

Michael McCarron (stays, 900,000 per year)

Daniel Audette (walks, no qualifying offer)

Hunter Shinkurak (walks, no qualifying offer)

 

Brett Kulak (stays 2 million per year)

Mike Reilly (stays 850,000 per year)

Gustav Olofsson (stays 800,000 per year)

Xavier Ouellet (walks, no qualifying offer)

Brett Lernout (walks, no qualifying offer)

Bang on.

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6 hours ago, DON said:

Does Audette's father scout for other organizations?

Would you of chosen 16g 32pt Houde? They hadnt taken a french kid in 2017 nor the 1st 9 picks of 2018, i say he was token pick to keep RDS and other locals from freaking out.

At least undrafted Teasdale looks like a better prospect.

 

 

1) This isn't the only player where someone's father is in the organization.  And just because someone's father is in the organization doesn't mean that the player isn't worth a draft pick.  I had Audette ranked at 83 in his draft year.  Getting him at 147 wasn't a bad pick IMO.  There was potential for an offensive guy in there.  He had skills and showed them in junior. 

 

2) I wouldn't have drafted Houde personally.  That said I wouldn't have drafted Connor Crisp, Jeremiah Addison, Michael Pezzetta or other players that Timmins has taken either.  That doesn't mean that the pick was made solely because he was french though.  I don't see the Habs drafting an abnormal number of QMJHL players compared to other organizations. 

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10 hours ago, Commandant said:

 I don't see the Habs drafting an abnormal number of QMJHL players compared to other organizations. 

Didnt say they did draft more french and dont really care, but Bergevin is a nice guy and wanted to make Donald happy and Houde, like i said just didnt like pick and my guess is "we have to take at least 1 french kid this year or i wont hear the end of it!" pick .

And trading the 62nd - 2nd round pick, down 9 spots to add a 16g 32pt scoring 5th round pick in Houde, still seems a waste to me?

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On 2019-04-18 at 8:52 AM, Commandant said:

Predictions:

 

UFAs:

Jordan Weal (stays 1.5 million per year) 

Nate Thompson (walks)

Jodie Benn (walks)

Christian Folin (stays 800,000 per year)

Antti Niemi (walks)

 

RFAs:

Joel Armia (stays 2.1 million per year)

Arturri Lehkonen (stays 1.5 million per year)

Charles Hudon (traded)

Michael McCarron (stays, 900,000 per year)

Daniel Audette (walks, no qualifying offer)

Hunter Shinkurak (walks, no qualifying offer)

 

Brett Kulak (stays 2 million per year)

Mike Reilly (stays 850,000 per year)

Gustav Olofsson (stays 800,000 per year)

Xavier Ouellet (walks, no qualifying offer)

Brett Lernout (walks, no qualifying offer)

I agree with everything except X-avier , I think they will work out a deal to keep him.

He is a decent D AHL depth but less reliable than Reilly 

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Anyone remember a year ago when Weal was with the flyers and there was a buzz about him towards the end of the 17-18 season? 

 

Hes a Hab now, and put up 10 in 16 i believe? Imo he’s still underrated. Guy could be a very good 3rd liner. 15-20 goals and near 40 points. I think we can steal him if we offer him the right contract.

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14 minutes ago, Meller93 said:

Anyone remember a year ago when Weal was with the flyers and there was a buzz about him towards the end of the 17-18 season? 

 

Hes a Hab now, and put up 10 in 16 i believe? Imo he’s still underrated. Guy could be a very good 3rd liner. 15-20 goals and near 40 points. I think we can steal him if we offer him the right contract.

 

He's shown himself to be streaky at contract time.  He did well in 2016-17 to get the two-year deal from the Flyers, then proceeded to play like a fringe player for most of that deal with the exception of his time in Montreal.  I like him and I'd be up for re-signing him but I suspect 'regular Weal' won't be as good as the 'contract Weal' we've seen down the stretch.

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1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

 

He's shown himself to be streaky at contract time.  He did well in 2016-17 to get the two-year deal from the Flyers, then proceeded to play like a fringe player for most of that deal with the exception of his time in Montreal.  I like him and I'd be up for re-signing him but I suspect 'regular Weal' won't be as good as the 'contract Weal' we've seen down the stretch.

 

Excellent insight. But I wonder about this. Commandant has argued repeatedly that ‘clutch’ is a myth. But if players can reliably raise their game for limited durations during contract years, isn’t this the same principle - i.e., that some guys can find ‘another level’ when highly motivated? Is the ‘contract year boost’ also a myth, then -? And if it’s not, then by the same logic, clutch wouldn’t be either.

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42 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Excellent insight. But I wonder about this. Commandant has argued repeatedly that ‘clutch’ is a myth. But if players can reliably raise their game for limited durations during contract years, isn’t this the same principle - i.e., that some guys can find ‘another level’ when highly motivated? Is the ‘contract year boost’ also a myth, then -? And if it’s not, then by the same logic, clutch wouldn’t be either.

 

The difference is that everyone is presumably highly motivated in the playoffs, while a player can individually raise his effort level on and off the ice in a contract renewal situation.

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23 hours ago, Neech said:

The difference is that everyone is presumably highly motivated in the playoffs, while a player can individually raise his effort level on and off the ice in a contract renewal situation.

 

Everyone may be motivated. But not everyone can raise his level of play.

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On 4/23/2019 at 10:58 PM, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Excellent insight. But I wonder about this. Commandant has argued repeatedly that ‘clutch’ is a myth. But if players can reliably raise their game for limited durations during contract years, isn’t this the same principle - i.e., that some guys can find ‘another level’ when highly motivated? Is the ‘contract year boost’ also a myth, then -? And if it’s not, then by the same logic, clutch wouldn’t be either.

 

I dont buy the contract year stuff either.

 

Looking at players, the number of players who overperform in a contract year are about the same as those who underperform.  Some will do both (in different years). Its just random luck of when a player will have a career year.

 

Add in the fact that weal's hot streak is a small sample... and i think the guy just got hot for a few weeks... which happens.

 

Id still re-sign him though... but i expect a fourth liner with speed, faceoff skills, and pk ability

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Thompson re-signs: 1 year, 1 million

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