Habs-Leafs Series Discussion Thread

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

On 5/13/2021 at 11:35 PM, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

I don't expect the Habs to sweep the Leafs as I think the Leafs have enough firepower to win one game so I will go with the Habs in 5. 

 

I was off by a couple games but I can live with the result. 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

Both players had an amazing impact for sure

[GHT120]

1 hour ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Both players had an amazing impact for sure

I agree ... but for Keefe there is also an element of "its not us, its them" in saying so

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

That is a very interesting remark by Keefe. 

 

Bieksa spent an intermission praising KK and his “active stick” as a guy who is hard to play against in the playoffs. And Caufield, meanwhile, was one of the only Habs who reliably generated offence.

 

KK reminds me of John LeClair in ONE very specific sense. LeClair was a big-body young player who came up, had talent, but did not put it together during the season. It was in the playoffs when he showed what he could do. It took three seasons (and a trade to Philly) for him to start figuring out how to bring that game during the season. Could KK be the same? - another player whose playoffs are a prefiguration of what he will eventually become? We’ll see.

 

Caufield had a quiet Game 7, but no question he was a huge addition. 

 

This is not to moment to criticize Ducharme, but if those guys were such difference-makers, how come they were benched for the start of the series?

 

[revvvrob]

Off topic in terms of winning/losing this series, but I would have loved the visual of game 7 more if the Habs had been in their red and the Leafs in their blue. When teams have such contrasting colors, going with both teams in home jerseys from time to time would be sweet. 

[alfredoh2009]

17 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

That is a very interesting remark by Keefe. 

 

Bieksa spent an intermission praising KK and his “active stick” as a guy who is hard to play against in the playoffs. And Caufield, meanwhile, was one of the only Habs who reliably generated offence.

 

KK reminds me of John LeClair in ONE very specific sense. LeClair was a big-body young player who came up, had talent, but did not put it together during the season. It was in the playoffs when he showed what he could do. It took three seasons (and a trade to Philly) for him to start figuring out how to bring that game during the season. Could KK be the same? - another player whose playoffs are a prefiguration of what he will eventually become? We’ll see.

 

Caufield had a quiet Game 7, but no question he was a huge addition. 

 

This is not to moment to criticize Ducharme, but if those guys were such difference-makers, how come they were benched for the start of the series?

 

And would Julien play them in a game 7 ?

that, to me, is the real question : Ducharme is the coach because he has the guts to go with his lineup regardless 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

4 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

And would Julien play them in a game 7 ?

that, to me, is the real question : Ducharme is the coach because he has the guts to go with his lineup regardless 

 

Well, it was Julien who gave massive ice to KK and Suzuki in last year’s Bubble. Honestly, I see zero evidence so far that Ducharme is more innovative or pro-youth than Julien was. (Not that I’m pining for Julien, mind you).

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Incidentally, this is a very fun thread to read in retrospect: 

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/the-carey-price-dliemma.2823880/

 

You can see them gradually going from denial to bargaining to acceptance, LOL

 

[BCHabnut]

11 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Incidentally, this is a very fun thread to read in retrospect: 

https://hfboards.mandatory.com/threads/the-carey-price-dliemma.2823880/

 

You can see them gradually going from denial to bargaining to acceptance, LOL

 

That was satisfying. 

[BCHabnut]

So we spent a year talking about how Danault needs to go. His play supported that discussion. Now this series happens. Yesterday morning I was discussing with my son about how he was the best skater for the Habs this series. Then he comes out and frustrates Marner and Mathews again. The media acknowledge his efforts. If he does this against Conner and Ehlers, how much do you offer him, if anything, in the off season?

[GHT120]

39 minutes ago, BCHabnut said:

So we spent a year talking about how Danault needs to go. His play supported that discussion. Now this series happens. Yesterday morning I was discussing with my son about how he was the best skater for the Habs this series. Then he comes out and frustrates Marner and Mathews again. The media acknowledge his efforts. If he does this against Conner and Ehlers, how much do you offer him, if anything, in the off season?

Making contract decisions on the basis of one series is a VERY dangerous idea ... just as trading a player based on one bad playoff series is dangerous.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

How much does a defensively strong 45-point C command? That would be the relevant question.

 

But keep in mind the flat cap. That is also relevant. Toffoli makes 4.25. Too much more than that would probably be silly.

[Toronthab]

2 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

That is a very interesting remark by Keefe. 

 

Bieksa spent an intermission praising KK and his “active stick” as a guy who is hard to play against in the playoffs. And Caufield, meanwhile, was one of the only Habs who reliably generated offence.

 

KK reminds me of John LeClair in ONE very specific sense. LeClair was a big-body young player who came up, had talent, but did not put it together during the season. It was in the playoffs when he showed what he could do. It took three seasons (and a trade to Philly) for him to start figuring out how to bring that game during the season. Could KK be the same? - another player whose playoffs are a prefiguration of what he will eventually become? We’ll see.

 

Caufield had a quiet Game 7, but no question he was a huge addition. 

 

This is not to moment to criticize Ducharme, but if those guys were such difference-makers, how come they were benched for the start of the series?

 

This may be a goofy notion I have , but I think Ducharme had to maintain the respect and show respect to all of the players. As in, we brought you men in here to do a job and now is the time so here is your task. Once that is done you can then make changes without rancor. I might be just nuts with this idea. Why should today be different? 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

2 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

That is a very interesting remark by Keefe. 

 

Bieksa spent an intermission praising KK and his “active stick” as a guy who is hard to play against in the playoffs. And Caufield, meanwhile, was one of the only Habs who reliably generated offence.

 

KK reminds me of John LeClair in ONE very specific sense. LeClair was a big-body young player who came up, had talent, but did not put it together during the season. It was in the playoffs when he showed what he could do. It took three seasons (and a trade to Philly) for him to start figuring out how to bring that game during the season. Could KK be the same? - another player whose playoffs are a prefiguration of what he will eventually become? We’ll see.

 

Caufield had a quiet Game 7, but no question he was a huge addition. 

 

This is not to moment to criticize Ducharme, but if those guys were such difference-makers, how come they were benched for the start of the series?

 

 

It was an interesting comment by Keefe, nice to see him give credit to those guys. I like your comparison with LeClair and think it is a good one. Scoring goals in the playoffs is harder (ask Mathews and Marner) and KK's ability to do that bodes well for the future. 

 

 

[BCHabnut]

13 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

How much does a defensively strong 45-point C command? That would be the relevant question.

 

But keep in mind the flat cap. That is also relevant. Toffoli makes 4.25. Too much more than that would probably be silly.

I would say defensively dominant.  Not strong.  

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

12 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

How much does a defensively strong 45-point C command? That would be the relevant question.

 

But keep in mind the flat cap. That is also relevant. Toffoli makes 4.25. Too much more than that would probably be silly.

 

How much does Danault command?  That is the million dollar question! Or 3 or 4 million dollar question. Some contributions can't be measured in goals, assists or save percentage and his contributions fall into the category of harder to measure.  I would love to keep him but certainly not at any price, it has to make sense as there will be others getting raises down the road. 

[BCHabnut]

47 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Making contract decisions on the basis of one series is a VERY dangerous idea ... just as trading a player based on one bad playoff series is dangerous.

His defensive prowess is not based on one playoff series. Far from it. He is one of the best defensive forwards in the game. His offense has always been in question. I'm not saying we must sign him. I'm asking if people would sign him, and for how much? 

[BCHabnut]

1 minute ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

How much does Danault command?  That is the million dollar question! Or 3 or 4 million dollar question. Some contributions can't be measured in goals, assists or save percentage and his contributions fall into the category of harder to measure.  I would love to keep him but certainly not at any price, it has to make sense as there will be others getting raises down the road. 

This is where it will get tough. He is not a 5 million dollar player. His offensive upside is too hit or miss. 3.5 two year show me deal?

[Toronthab]

2 hours ago, BCHabnut said:

That was satisfying. 

Fun reading the posts about how Carey Price is finished. One guy said he was as frightened of Price as he was of being eaten by a bear. He said he didn't worry about bears or Price but if it happened he'd be terrified!!! Dreams come true!

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

5 minutes ago, BCHabnut said:

This is where it will get tough. He is not a 5 million dollar player. His offensive upside is too hit or miss. 3.5 two year show me deal?

 

It does get tough. He is a UFA and his market value has definitely gone up from where it was at the end of the year making it more likely that some team will overpay for his services. I don't think there is any way he takes a 2 year deal.  He is in the prime of his career,  he will want 4 or 5 years and he will get it from somebody.  I would go 5 years/20 million max.  but that may not get it done.  There is also the French factor involved making it harder for MB to let him walk.  My prediction is that MB will sign him for 5 years/25 million.  That is too much but that is my prediction. 

[Commandant]

I was fine with 5x5 before, and am still good with it now. 

 

He is selke level defence and he usually puts up about 50 points in 82 games.

 

Typically every 10 points is more or less, around a million bucks.  Add in the selke d and the 5 million cap hit is fine.

 

Tatar is likely gone.

 

Armia should come back at around 2.5

Perry another deal under 1 million.

 

 

[Toronthab]

Ahhhh.... here it is. The day after Montreal eliminated the Toronto Maple Leafs..... Ahhh....

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

7 minutes ago, Commandant said:

I was fine with 5x5 before, and am still good with it now. 

 

He is selke level defence and he usually puts up about 50 points in 82 games.

 

Typically every 10 points is more or less, around a million bucks.  Add in the selke d and the 5 million cap hit is fine.

 

Tatar is likely gone.

 

Armia should come back at around 2.5

Perry another deal under 1 million.

 

 

 

His point totals in descending order when he has played at least 70 games have been 53,47,40 so I would call him a 46 point guy, I know we are splitting hairs here. Those points were also playing on the number 1 line with Gallagher and Tatar. As Suzuki and KK become more established he would definitely be the number 3 guy and at 5mil/year would likely be the highest paid number #3 center in the league. It's a tough one to determine.

 

Agree about Tatar, definitely gone. Would love Armia back at 2.5 but he is a UFA, I think he gets a better offer. Would love to bring Perry back, the kind of guy you hate on the other team but love on your team. 

[GHT120]

51 minutes ago, BCHabnut said:

His defensive prowess is not based on one playoff series. Far from it. He is one of the best defensive forwards in the game. His offense has always been in question. I'm not saying we must sign him. I'm asking if people would sign him, and for how much? 

His defensive play has always been his strength ... and easily recognizable ... but IMO his work against McDavid and Matthews in the last month has been so exceptional as to inflate his perceived value for that trait.

 

I would not go more than $4.25 M ... which is almost a third more than his real dollar $3.25M salary this season ... and ideally not more than 3 seasons

[Commandant]

I don't see Armia getting a huge offer, but if he does, thats fine.  Let him go.

 

As for Danault's points,... he gets them all 5v5... and he will still get good wingers. 

 

The team will be deep again, with Anderson, Gallagher, Drouin, Toffoli, Caufield, as 5 wingers under contract next year.  Then you still have Byron, Lehkonen, with Ylonen, and Poehling (likely moves to wing) pushing for spots.

 

Plus Perry if he returns, and Armia or a replacement.

 

Even the third line centre is gonna get good wingers. 

 

And Danault might get some even better than the 5th and 6th on the team, as he will play more minutes than others due to his matching the other team's top lines.  He likely is still going to have Gallagher beside him, and his LW is up in the air.