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2021 NHL Playoffs


Neech
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1 minute ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

If he turns into anything close to a Scheifele then the wait is most definitely worth it, 23 is still young.  People forget how young KK still is because he started at 18. He is only 20 folks, just 20!  Sometimes you need patience with young players.  When I see KK at 20, Suzuki at 21 and Caulfield at 20 I see the core of a pretty good forward group in a couple years and Toffoli and Anderson will still be in their prime.  I am more concerned about the defense group where they really need some of their prospects to develop and defenceman take longer. 

Undoubtedly worth it in the long-term ... but does little for the Habs top 6 in the intervening years ... OK for fans but not so much for the current HC and GM

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10 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Undoubtedly worth it in the long-term ... but does little for the Habs top 6 in the intervening years ... OK for fans but not so much for the current HC and GM

 

It's just going to require a little patience and developing players the proper way.  I don't see a better alternative as MB will likely have little cap room going forward and building a team through the trade route rarely works out. Colorado, Tampa, Leafs etc are where they are because of players they drafted and developed, there are no short cuts here. 

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I always thought all teams get the shaft from refs (to even it up often...eh Kerry) not just the Habs. Dom L. has a bit in The Athletic on inconsistent officiating ;

Luszczyszyn: NHL playoff officiating is an embarrassment we’ve accepted for too long

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2 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

It's just going to require a little patience and developing players the proper way.  I don't see a better alternative as MB will likely have little cap room going forward and building a team through the trade route rarely works out. Colorado, Tampa, Leafs etc are where they are because of players they drafted and developed, there are no short cuts here. 

 

No doubts ... but that is not MB et al's strength ... either patience or development

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Tristan Jarry with a clunker of a game tonight as the Penguins were eliminated.  With that and the year he had, it wouldn't be surprising to see them try to do something between the pipes although they'll be limited in terms of cap space.

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10 hours ago, dlbalr said:

Tristan Jarry with a clunker of a game tonight as the Penguins were eliminated.  With that and the year he had, it wouldn't be surprising to see them try to do something between the pipes although they'll be limited in terms of cap space.


A Crosby for Price swap sounds perfect 😍 

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49 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

A Crosby for Price swap sounds perfect 😍 

In this purely theoretical world you've created, more realistic (assuming NMC/NTC approvals) would be Malkin and Jarry for Price (maybe some tinkering at the edges if needed) ... Pens save $2.5M on next year's cap (which they currently project to exceed) and Habs save almost $2 million compared to this past season and no longer need to re-sign Danault

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9 hours ago, tomh009 said:

Leafs, Caps, Pens all finished the regular season with  77 points. All of them out in the first round.

Of course the Caps (.688) lost to Boston (.652) and Pens (.688) lost to (.634) ... no real shame in that ... B-U-T ... the LAFFS (.688) lost to a team 22 points behind them in the standings .. to the "worst" team in the playoffs by points percentage (.536) ... to the team their fans consider their principal rival (IMO a couple of more playoff series are needed before a "true" rivalry may be resurrected) ... Interesting to note that, unlike Tavares, neither Matthew nor Marner have NTCs (apparently Auston has a NMC in the final season of his deal) ... so significant changes are possible ... whether they are likely is another matter.

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It's jarring to see how much more skill and speed in all of the other playoff series compared to the suffocating style the Habs play when successful.  Not complaining of course, but I could see us not being beloved by neutrals.

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10 hours ago, Neech said:

It's jarring to see how much more skill and speed in all of the other playoff series compared to the suffocating style the Habs play when successful.  Not complaining of course, but I could see us not being beloved by neutrals.

 

These Habs are the kind of team everybody hates. Physical, mean, grinding, not particularly talented, relying on a grind-them-down game, great goaltending, and just enough offence. However, the playoffs tend to reward that kind of thing. I personally think the Habs will eventually lose due to that lack of talent. But it’s the LA Kings model. 

 

It’s interesting to see how many “franchise players” fell in the first round. That stat about only one of the top 17 most expensive players making it to the second round is quite striking. Is this just a freak event, or does it tell us something about how to build a team in a cap system?

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5 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

It’s interesting to see how many “franchise players” fell in the first round. That stat about only one of the top 17 most expensive players making it to the second round is quite striking. Is this just a freak event, or does it tell us something about how to build a team in a cap system?

It would be very interesting to see that same analysis for the past five or ten years!

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6 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

It would be very interesting to see that same analysis for the past five or ten years!

Simplistic review ... in the last ten years TBL, Caps, Pens and Hawks have won a total of 6 Cups with generational stars ... Kings won twice (once with 5 of the top 6 scorers) ... and Bruins and Blues won more with depth than stars ... 

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Wouldn't it be wild *** IF *** the fallout from the Laffs 5th straight first round exit (ALL with Marner and Matthews, 3 with Tavares) was that the one star with a NMC clause (Tavares) asked to be traded ... coming home certainly hasn't worked out as he hoped ... maybe its time for fun in the sun.

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1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

These Habs are the kind of team everybody hates. Physical, mean, grinding, not particularly talented, relying on a grind-them-down game, great goaltending, and just enough offence. However, the playoffs tend to reward that kind of thing. I personally think the Habs will eventually lose due to that lack of talent. But it’s the LA Kings model. 

 

It’s interesting to see how many “franchise players” fell in the first round. That stat about only one of the top 17 most expensive players making it to the second round is quite striking. Is this just a freak event, or does it tell us something about how to build a team in a cap system?

 

Carey price is the first and only player EVER with a 10m cap hit or more, to win a playoff series (not counting the play in series last year... which if we do would mean kane, Toews and price are the only three to win a series)

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1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

It’s interesting to see how many “franchise players” fell in the first round. That stat about only one of the top 17 most expensive players making it to the second round is quite striking. Is this just a freak event, or does it tell us something about how to build a team in a cap system?

Quick check of 2020 playoffs showed 14 of top 17 highest-paid players (by cap hit) out by the end of first round (only Benn, Kucherov and Seguin remained). On average, you would expect nine of them to be still playing, this is substantially worse.

 

I suspect this points to the difficulty of concentrating too much of the cap on a few stars and then having to scrape the bottom of the barrel to fill out the roster.

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1 hour ago, GHT120 said:

Simplistic review ... in the last ten years TBL, Caps, Pens and Hawks have won a total of 6 Cups with generational stars ... Kings won twice (once with 5 of the top 6 scorers) ... and Bruins and Blues won more with depth than stars ... 

But that's a different question, generational star vs top cap hit. There is overlap but it's well below 50%.

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2 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

Quick check of 2020 playoffs showed 14 of top 17 highest-paid players (by cap hit) out by the end of first round (only Benn, Kucherov and Seguin remained). On average, you would expect nine of them to be still playing, this is substantially worse.

 

I suspect this points to the difficulty of concentrating too much of the cap on a few stars and then having to scrape the bottom of the barrel to fill out the roster.

Even worse thus season ... 15 of 17 ... both that made it through are goalies

 

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43 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

Carey price is the first and only player EVER with a 10m cap hit or more, to win a playoff series (not counting the play in series last year... which if we do would mean kane, Toews and price are the only three to win a series)

 

Man...the lesson would appear to be: NEVER sign a guy to a massive cap hit. Even if he's a franchise player. Just deal him away after his bridge deal.

 

It's a radical thought - indeed, almost unthinkable by standard managerial logic. But at some point you do need to look at how champions are built and act accordingly...

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20 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

But that's a different question, generational star vs top cap hit. There is overlap but it's well below 50%.

The original post mentioned both franchise players and highest paid ... which is why I said simplistic.

 

Your analysis was more detailed ... and appreciated.

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2 hours ago, tomh009 said:

Quick check of 2020 playoffs showed 14 of top 17 highest-paid players (by cap hit) out by the end of first round (only Benn, Kucherov and Seguin remained). On average, you would expect nine of them to be still playing, this is substantially worse.

 

I suspect this points to the difficulty of concentrating too much of the cap on a few stars and then having to scrape the bottom of the barrel to fill out the roster.

A mistake in the above -- I forgot that Perry was in Dallas that year, so 2019-2020 was 4/17.

 

2018-2019 looks like only 1/17 (Jamie Benn) though. That is a seriously low percentage.

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1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

A mistake in the above -- I forgot that Perry was in Dallas that year, so 2019-2020 was 4/17.

 

2018-2019 looks like only 1/17 (Jamie Benn) though. That is a seriously low percentage.

A few more, so here is a summary:

2021: 2: Price, Vasilevskiy

2020: 3: Kucherov, Seguin, Benn (no, Perry didn't make the cut last year)

2019: 1: Benn

2018: 6: Ovechkin, Malkin, Crosby, Stamkos, Johansen, Thornton
2017: 6: Ovechkin, Malkin, Crosby, Perry, Getzlaf, Byfuglien

 

That's an average of 3.6 per year for the last five years. Maybe "top 17" isn't the most logical breakpoint but the percentage still looks terrible, even less than the expected 8.8, let alone the fan expectation of a deep playoff run after signing a huge contract.

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6 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

Carey price is the first and only player EVER with a 10m cap hit or more, to win a playoff series (not counting the play in series last year... which if we do would mean kane, Toews and price are the only three to win a series)

I think that is a but simplistic. Ovechkin won many playoff series, with a cap hit of over $9m, but did so at a time when the cap was lower.

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