What's next for the Habs?

[Commandant]

1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

So, why did you choose 2002 as the starting year? Timmins has only been in charge since 2014.

 

Timmins has been in charge of Habs scouting since just before the 2003 Draft.  However with how close his hiring date was to the 2003 draft, there is some debate if he had a big say in that draft or if it was still Andre Savard.

[Commandant]

1 hour ago, Trizzak said:

Timmins has been running the Habs scouting since 2002. He might have gotten a title change in 2014, but he has been head scout since 2002.

 

2003.... He was not involved in the Higgins draft. He was still with the Senators in 2002. 

 

He was hired just before the 2003 draft. 

 

How much he had to do with 2003 is up for debate as Andre Savard was also heavily involved and Timmins came on board after the regular season but before the draft.

[tomh009]

4 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

I wouldn’t call it a great breakdown - kind of depressing 🤭. Good analysis 😁but sorry group of prospects. I do think the categorization of players like O’Byrne is overly generous (I’d call him more a fringe NHL player, along with a few others.  I also don’t like the whole 1.8 players that play a minimum number of NHL games a good measure. Again, looking at from the time Cheveldayoff started in Winnipeg, and the MN/Timmins combo, or looking at Tampa, or Boston, or other yams, how do we stack up in terms of actual quality NHL players vs quantity is a better measure.

The 1.8-player benchmark is a valid one as the average for the league. But if you think Cheveldayoff is a better bar to compare to, then let's take a look at the two teams' picks for the first six years (I think too early to tell for 2019 and 2020).

 

2013:
Jets (13th): **Josh Morrissey, Nicolas Petan
Habs (25th): Michael McCarron, *Jacob De La Rose, Zach Fucale, *Artturi Lehkonen

 

2014:
Jets (9th): **Nikolaj Ehlers, Jack Glover
Habs (26th): Nikita Scherbak

 

2015:
Jets (17th): **Kyle Connor, *Jack Roslovic, Jansen Harkins
Habs (26th): *Noah Juulsen

 

2016:
Jets (2nd): **Patrik Laine, Logan Stanley
Habs (9th): **Mikhail Sergachev

 

2017:
Jets (24th): ?Kristian Vesalainen, Dylan Samberg
Habs (25th): ?Ryan Poehling, ?Josh Brook, Joni Ikonen

 

2018:
Jets (No 1st): ?David Gustafsson
Habs (3rd): **Jesperi Kotkaniemi, ?Jesse Ylonen, *Alexander Romanov, Jacob Olofsson

 

TOTALS:
Jets: Four impact players, one NHL player, two likely prospects
Habs: Two impact players, four NHL players, three likely prospects

 

I did not classify Romanov as an impact player (at least not yet) but I did include Juulsen as a legit NHL player as I believe he would have been one, had it not been for his injuries; I didn't include Ikonen, though, as I think it was too early to tell what his career would have been. Of course, your opinions on individual players are likely not the same.

 

Overall, I don't think this looks all that much different. The Jets have more impact players from the draft, but this is to be expected as they picked significantly earlier than the Habs for the first four years. Habs some extra second-rounders during the period but the Jets had one more first-rounder (two picks in both 2015 and 2016).

[tomh009]

Let me add one more thing to the discussion ... this is from an Athletic article by Arpon Basu on Timmins, from about a year ago.

 

Quote

It is the reflection of a stark reality for scouting directors around the NHL: they work all season long on one thing and only one thing, only to have their general manager or assistant general manager or director of player personnel jump into the game late and try to take things over. This is a real thing in the scouting community, where the people who do the actual legwork must guard against the relatively uninformed opinions of their upper management types leaping in with opinions based on a limited number of viewings and limited or incomplete information on a player.

 

At the 2012 draft, Bergevin spoke in glowing terms about second-round pick Dalton Thrower of the Saskatoon Blades, relaying watching him play live and get into a fight with a much more imposing player. Thrower came out on the winning end of the tilt, it stuck with Bergevin, so much so that he told the story immediately after drafting him. It was a sign of character in his eyes. It was also a sign that Thrower was his pick, and not necessarily Timmins’ choice, though perhaps they agreed.

 

Still, the reality of external forces like hosting a draft (hello, Louis Leblanc) or an overly enthusiastic general manager when it comes to a certain prospect are the things we are rarely privy to on the outside. We don’t know which picks were influenced or even dictated by people higher up the team’s food chain and which ones weren’t. But we do know the draft is evaluated in hindsight and the person who takes the responsibility – whether it’s blame or glory – is Timmins. The same is true of his peers around the league.

 

And ... yeah. Dalton Thrower. Picked in the late second round. Played nine games in the AHL, the rest of his career was ECHL.

[hab29RETIRED]

11 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

The 1.8-player benchmark is a valid one as the average for the league. But if you think Cheveldayoff is a better bar to compare to, then let's take a look at the two teams' picks for the first six years (I think too early to tell for 2019 and 2020).

 

2013:
Jets (13th): **Josh Morrissey, Nicolas Petan
Habs (25th): Michael McCarron, *Jacob De La Rose, Zach Fucale, *Artturi Lehkonen

 

2014:
Jets (9th): **Nikolaj Ehlers, Jack Glover
Habs (26th): Nikita Scherbak

 

2015:
Jets (17th): **Kyle Connor, *Jack Roslovic, Jansen Harkins
Habs (26th): *Noah Juulsen

 

2016:
Jets (2nd): **Patrik Laine, Logan Stanley
Habs (9th): **Mikhail Sergachev

 

2017:
Jets (24th): ?Kristian Vesalainen, Dylan Samberg
Habs (25th): ?Ryan Poehling, ?Josh Brook, Joni Ikonen

 

2018:
Jets (No 1st): ?David Gustafsson
Habs (3rd): **Jesperi Kotkaniemi, ?Jesse Ylonen, *Alexander Romanov, Jacob Olofsson

 

TOTALS:
Jets: Four impact players, one NHL player, two likely prospects
Habs: Two impact players, four NHL players, three likely prospects

 

I did not classify Romanov as an impact player (at least not yet) but I did include Juulsen as a legit NHL player as I believe he would have been one, had it not been for his injuries; I didn't include Ikonen, though, as I think it was too early to tell what his career would have been. Of course, your opinions on individual players are likely not the same.

 

Overall, I don't think this looks all that much different. The Jets have more impact players from the draft, but this is to be expected as they picked significantly earlier than the Habs for the first four years. Habs some extra second-rounders during the period but the Jets had one more first-rounder (two picks in both 2015 and 2016).

I think you need to look at the whole body of work during a GM’s tenure - which requires going back two years earlier for the jets.

I also think that after 2017, is too early to judge. When you look at the pucks the jets had Inlikw their body of work better:

Cheveldyoff has been a GM 1 yr longer than MB, her is is his drafting record:
2011:
- Scheifele
-Lowry
2012:
-Trouba (forced to trade, but for Pionk)
-Hellebuyck 
2013:
-morrissey 
-Copp
2014:
-Ehlers
2015:
-Conner 
-Roslovic (forced trade)
2016:
-Laine (forced trade, but did bring in Dubois)
 
Of those players, 6 players are key core players that the jets drafted and developed.

As a comparison, who has MB drafted and developed during his tenure that is a key part of the team?  Lekhonan and Evans??  Romanov and Caufield should become regulars (the jets also have more recent picks that will also become regulars which I haven’t listed).  
That is totally unacceptable.

[hab29RETIRED]

6 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

Let me add one more thing to the discussion ... this is from an Athletic article by Arpon Basu on Timmins, from about a year ago.

 

 

And ... yeah. Dalton Thrower. Picked in the late second round. Played nine games in the AHL, the rest of his career was ECHL.

Oh I agree, that the GM is going to have a major say on the picks. I also don’t see McCarron as a  Timmins type pick. Not sure if Tinordi was either (his dad played for Gainey).  Thrower was a guy that I heard a lot of glowing things about on this forum as well. Reminded me of a very similar type of player in the 90’s that the GM was raving about - Brent Biladeau or something like that - can’t remember that name. But was praise being heaped fir the same reasons. He didn’t amount to anything either.

[Fanpuck33]

5 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I'll answer in-line:

 

Funny. I have almost no recollection of Ryan White, haha. I'll give you Dumont as a fringe NHLer. Didn't make it to 100 games, but his chances came over the span of a lot of years and a few teams.  I don't see big potential with Primeau and Fleury got a healthy shot last year and didn't even get a chance this year. That's not a good sign for a 3rd year pro. Guys like Brook, Ylonen, Harris, Norlinder... there are guys I know nothing about. Aside from seeing Brook's name being brought up by Commandant, I've never heard of the guy.

 

5 hours ago, tomh009 said:

So, why did you choose 2002 as the starting year? Timmins has only been in charge since 2014.

 

He only got the title of Director of Amateur scouting in 2014, but that was just a fancier title for what he was already doing, and probably went along with a raise to keep him around. Just look at any team's front office and you'll find all kinds of made up positions that sound fancier than they are.

 

4 hours ago, BCHabnut said:

That is a pretty great breakdown.  Holy crap.

 

Thank you.

 

4 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

I don’t consider a guy like O’Byrne a good NHLer - more of a fringe NHLer. - unless I’m interpreting it wrong.

 

I'll admit that I got O'Byrne mixed up with Greg Pateryn. I was thinking it was O'Byrne who just got traded again this year and was still hanging around the league as opposed to Pateryn. I'd say 300+ games put O'Byrne a step above a fringe NHL, but a step below being a good NHLer. What's in between those two? Mediocre NHLer?

 

[tomh009]

1 hour ago, hab29RETIRED said:

I think you need to look at the whole body of work during a GM’s tenure - which requires going back two years earlier for the jets.

I also think that after 2017, is too early to judge. When you look at the pucks the jets had Inlikw their body of work better:

Cheveldyoff has been a GM 1 yr longer than MB, her is is his drafting record:
2011:
- Scheifele
-Lowry
2012:
-Trouba (forced to trade, but for Pionk)
-Hellebuyck 
2013:
-morrissey 
-Copp
2014:
-Ehlers
2015:
-Conner 
-Roslovic (forced trade)
2016:
-Laine (forced trade, but did bring in Dubois)
 
Of those players, 6 players are key core players that the jets drafted and developed.

As a comparison, who has MB drafted and developed during his tenure that is a key part of the team?  Lekhonan and Evans??  Romanov and Caufield should become regulars (the jets also have more recent picks that will also become regulars which I haven’t listed).  
That is totally unacceptable.

OK, so let's start in 2012, Bergevin's first draft. I want to compare like for like (same draft years), so I will skip 2011 -- which was only two weeks after Cheveldayoff took the job anyway. 2018 has only one question mark for the Jets, and Kotkaniemi and Romanov are pretty clear already. So ...

 

2012:
Jets (9th): **Jacob Trouba, Lukas Sutter
Habs (3rd): **Alex Galchenyuk, Sebastian Collberg, Dalton Thrower

 

2013:
Jets (13th): **Josh Morrissey, Nicolas Petan
Habs (25th): Michael McCarron, *Jacob De La Rose, Zach Fucale, *Artturi Lehkonen

 

2014:
Jets (9th): **Nikolaj Ehlers, Jack Glover
Habs (26th): Nikita Scherbak

 

2015:
Jets (17th): **Kyle Connor, *Jack Roslovic, Jansen Harkins
Habs (26th): *Noah Juulsen

 

2016:
Jets (2nd): **Patrik Laine, Logan Stanley
Habs (9th): **Mikhail Sergachev

 

2017:
Jets (24th): ?Kristian Vesalainen, Dylan Samberg
Habs (25th): ?Ryan Poehling, ?Josh Brook, Joni Ikonen

 

2018:
Jets (No 1st): ?David Gustafsson
Habs (3rd): **Jesperi Kotkaniemi, ?Jesse Ylonen, *Alexander Romanov, Jacob Olofsson

 

TOTALS:
Jets: Five impact players, one NHL player, two likely prospects
Habs: Three impact players, four NHL players, three likely prospects

 

I counted Galchenyuk as an impact player due to his five 40+ point seasons, even if he has now deteriorated to a marginal player. Even if you don't, it doesn't change the overall picture much. The draft results are fairly similar, with an edge to the Jets, but they have also generally picked earlier.

 

I am not counting any impact from trading. Trading is separate from drafting, and this discussion was about the drafting record. And whether you keep the player you drafted instead of trading him, it doesn't make necessarily make the team any better. So, saying the Habs don't draft well because the drafted players are not on today's roster is disingenuous, unless you are opposed to trading on principle.

[hab29RETIRED]

18 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

OK, so let's start in 2012, Bergevin's first draft. I want to compare like for like (same draft years), so I will skip 2011 -- which was only two weeks after Cheveldayoff took the job anyway. 2018 has only one question mark for the Jets, and Kotkaniemi and Romanov are pretty clear already. So ...

 

2012:
Jets (9th): **Jacob Trouba, Lukas Sutter
Habs (3rd): **Alex Galchenyuk, Sebastian Collberg, Dalton Thrower

 

2013:
Jets (13th): **Josh Morrissey, Nicolas Petan
Habs (25th): Michael McCarron, *Jacob De La Rose, Zach Fucale, *Artturi Lehkonen

 

2014:
Jets (9th): **Nikolaj Ehlers, Jack Glover
Habs (26th): Nikita Scherbak

 

2015:
Jets (17th): **Kyle Connor, *Jack Roslovic, Jansen Harkins
Habs (26th): *Noah Juulsen

 

2016:
Jets (2nd): **Patrik Laine, Logan Stanley
Habs (9th): **Mikhail Sergachev

 

2017:
Jets (24th): ?Kristian Vesalainen, Dylan Samberg
Habs (25th): ?Ryan Poehling, ?Josh Brook, Joni Ikonen

 

2018:
Jets (No 1st): ?David Gustafsson
Habs (3rd): **Jesperi Kotkaniemi, ?Jesse Ylonen, *Alexander Romanov, Jacob Olofsson

 

TOTALS:
Jets: Five impact players, one NHL player, two likely prospects
Habs: Three impact players, four NHL players, three likely prospects

 

I counted Galchenyuk as an impact player due to his five 40+ point seasons, even if he has now deteriorated to a marginal player. Even if you don't, it doesn't change the overall picture much. The draft results are fairly similar, with an edge to the Jets, but they have also generally picked earlier.

 

I am not counting any impact from trading. Trading is separate from drafting, and this discussion was about the drafting record. And whether you keep the player you drafted instead of trading him, it doesn't make necessarily make the team any better. So, saying the Habs don't draft well because the drafted players are not on today's roster is disingenuous, unless you are opposed to trading on principle.

How do you not include Hellebuyck who was the best player drafted by either team on 2012 (Trouba would be next. 
2013 - best player drafted by either team is Morrisey

2014 - best player drafted by either team is Ehlers

2015 - best player drafted by either team is Conner, next is also by jets in Roslovic

2016 - best player Laine

2017 - uncertian

2018 - habs probably with KK and Romanov, but still uncertain

[tomh009]

Just now, hab29RETIRED said:

How do you not include Hellebuyck who was the best player drafted by either team on 2012 (Trouba would be next. 
2013 - best player drafted by either team is Morrisey

2014 - best player drafted by either team is Ehlers

2015 - best player drafted by either team is Conner, next is also by jets in Roslovic

2016 - best player Laine

2017 - uncertian

2018 - habs probably with KK and Romanov, but still uncertain

Because I only included the ones from the first two rounds. A fifth-round pick is a longshot, may be a home run along the lines of Hellebuyck or Gallagher, but the probability of making the NHL is low. Luck will be a significant factor. So, I didn't include anything beyond the top two rounds.

 

But the point about drafting earlier stands: if you draft 10 or 15 positions earlier, you certainly should get better players, so absolutely the Jets should have drafted better players than the Habs in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. That should be no surprise at all, and no slight on Timmins.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

5 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

Because I only included the ones from the first two rounds. A fifth-round pick is a longshot, may be a home run along the lines of Hellebuyck or Gallagher, but the probability of making the NHL is low. Luck will be a significant factor. So, I didn't include anything beyond the top two rounds.

 

But the point about drafting earlier stands: if you draft 10 or 15 positions earlier, you certainly should get better players, so absolutely the Jets should have drafted better players than the Habs in 2013, 2014, 2015 and 2016. That should be no surprise at all, and no slight on Timmins.

 

The Jets drafted higher than the Habs in 2013-2016 which is a totally valid point so they should have drafted better but the Jets did not have 1 miss with those 4 first round picks.  I am betting not too many teams can say that. The ones that can likely have pretty good teams right now. Connor at 17 was a great pick, Ehlers at 9 was also a great pick as there were some complete failures drafted before him that year. The Jets have drafted well. 

[hab29RETIRED]

10 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

The Jets drafted higher than the Habs in 2013-2016 which is a totally valid point so they should have drafted better but the Jets did not have 1 miss with those 4 first round picks.  I am betting not too many teams can say that. The ones that can likely have pretty good teams right now. Connor at 17 was a great pick, Ehlers at 9 was also a great pick as there were some complete failures drafted before him that year. The Jets have drafted well. 

Habs drafted ahead of the jets in 2012 - yet the jets got the much better player. I also think it does a dis-service when you exclude 2011. He drafted a Scheifele  a franchise centre at #7 that was not considered a top 10 pick that year. He also drafted Lowry. Yes, Cheveldayoff was on the job for a couple of weeks, but it was already a planned transition and they pretty much hired new staff.  He was also patient with his young players and had a much better process for player development. MB wasted how many years because he hired his childhood buddy to coach the farm team and it should have been apparent that he was incompetent by year 2.

 

meanwhile we rush KK, rush Mete.

[tomh009]

Player development is yet another topic, and it's an area where the Habs have not excelled in the past decade. I believe that Bouchard has significantly improved the situation, but I don't really know how to do any kind of quantitative evaluation of this area.

 

Anyway, Cheveldayoff and the Jets have drafted well, no question. But my point was that given the lower picks the Habs have had, Timmins really has not done all that much worse.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

You know, it’s awfully easy to get lost in the weeds on this.

 

The Habs have been mediocre for most of the past 20 years. Prima facie, that does not speak to excellence in drafting and development. If Timmins has done a great job, then we need an alternative explanation for why other teams have been able to build lasting contenders over that span and we haven’t. 

[tomh009]

There is a big grey area between "Timmins sucks" and "Timmins is brilliant" ...

[Sir_Boagalott]

On 5/30/2021 at 9:57 AM, Fanpuck33 said:

 

2002: One good NHLer in Chris Higgins

2003: Four good NHLers in Andrei Kostitsyn, Maxim Lapierre, Ryan O'Byrne, and Jaroslav Halak.

2004: Three good NHLers in Mikhail Grabovski, Alexei Emelin, and Mark Streit. Kyle Chipchura probably more of a fringe NHLer.

2005: First impact player in Price. Good NHLers in Guillaume Latendresse, Matt D'Agostini, and Sergei Kostitsyn.

2006: Pretty much a complete loss.

2007: Three impact players in McDonagh, Pacioretty, and Subban. Another good NHLer in Yannick Weber.

2008: A complete loss

2009: A complete loss

2010: An impact player in Brendan Gallagher

2011: One solid NHLer in Nathan Beaullieu.

2012: One good NHLer in Alex Galchenyuk.

2013: One decent NHLer in Arturii Lehkonen. Two fringe NHLers in Scene Adgrigehtto and Jacob De La Rose.

2014: One solid NHLer in Jake Evans.

2015: One fringe NHLer in Noah Juulsen.

2016: One really good NHLer in Mikhail Sergachev (is he an impact player at this point?), and one decent NHLer in Victor Mete.

2017: Looking like another total loss. Maybe a fringe NHLer in Ryan Poehling.

2018: Too early to tell. KK is a solid NHLer, with still potential to be impact. Also too early to say what Alexander Romanov will be long term.

2019: Really hoping Cole Caufield maintains his trajectory.

2020: Too early to even have a guess.

 

So in 18 years, they've drafted 6 impact players. Two were traded away before they became impact players (could we have developed them?) and two others were traded away another in his prime. Gallagher the only impact skater they've held onto, and he is almost always so banged up by the playoffs that he can't make an impact. 

 

An impact player every three years (on average) is not bad at face value.  Three of those being in one amazing draft in Columbus kind of skews that, though. Plenty of NHL talent drafted over the years, but the numerous years of total losses is not a good look for someone who may not be known for picking up on elite talent, but is at least known for having an eye for solid NHL talent. Of course, management decisions obviously skews his record. Where did he really have guys like McCarron and Tinordi ranked? Was he asked to simply rank the best players over 6'3" or did he really have those guys highly ranked?

 

Can you do that with Philly and New Jersey?  I'm kidding, and the request might seem silly, but back in 2009 I didn't like how the Habs were drafting.  At that time I compared them with those 2 teams because they were all semi bubble teams that would finish 7-10 place every year.  When they did make the playoffs they would often win 1 round too.

 

No disrespect to what anybody has said, but without considering the Habs draft position in regards to any team you compare them with then its completely irrelevant.  i.e. any team that finishes bottom 5 for numerous years should get more decent prospects than a team that regularly makes the playoffs during any set time period.   Also, look at the complete loss years vs better draft years and see where they finished in the standings.  Its imperative to consider where they finished.  

[TheDriveFor25]

Who cares about the draft.. keep trading guys like Weise for Danault, Domi for Anderson, Pacioretty for Suzuki+.. even Subban for Weber was an obvious win now although at the time people hated it.

 

MB built this team and they have a chance, I don’t care how he did it.. 

[alfredoh2009]

9 hours ago, tomh009 said:

There is a big grey area between "Timmins sucks" and "Timmins is brilliant" ...

And like John Wick in the mirror room fight, you have to decide which one is the real one