What would you do if you were the GM?

[GHT120]

11 hours ago, Commandant said:

More teams farther out from the playoffs makes for more sellers. 

That too

[GHT120]

Adding someone to this role is a good step forward ... hopefully he may include some specialists as well into a skills development program ... somewhat distinct from player development ... the former being more "micro" and the latter more "macro"

 

[alfredoh2009]

ok, with two weeks to go to the trade deadline, here is what I would do:

 

trade Petry  and Allen to DAL for Klingberg, Bar and Holtby

trade Chiarot to FLA for Nutivaara and 2023-first-dound-pick

re-sign Kulak, Clague and Wideman

 

Forward moves later this summer, I would re-sign Lehkonen, Rem Pitlick and Dauphin if the contract and term is team friendly.

 

Reasoning:

the Habs have multiple LD prospects, some of which may play in the NHL next season. They need to solidify the RD to help the prospects make the transition

 

The new D would look like:

Edmundson-Klingberg

Romanov-Savard ()

Kulak-Nutivaara

Clague-Wideman

with Norlinder, Harris, Struble Bar knocking on the door; and Brook, Shueneman as emergency call-ups. That looks much better to me than what we had at the beginning of this season

 

At forward, we will probably still have Hoffman and Byron; for argu,ent purposes, let's say we still have Lehkonen, Dauphin and Pitlick

 

The forwards would look like:

Anderson-Suzuki-Caufield

Drouin-Dvorak-Gallagher(* 🤕)

Pitlick-Evans-Byron

Dauphin-Poehling-Lehkonen

 

and  Hoffman (🤑) and Armia  (🤑)

 

with Ylonen knocking on the door

 

That is $69.525M cap hit  including Price and about $4.25M for a back-up goalie

 

On the draft pick side, Habs would be well stocked

 

[Commandant]

Why the obsession with Jack Bar.  A fifth round pick who is supposed to be an offensive defenceman and has 0 goals 6 assists in 27 NCAA games?

 

He's not a top prospect at this point.  He's not "knocking on the door".

 

Klingberg is a UFA and there is no guarantee of signing him, and he wants almost 8m per season for 8 years.   And if we are going to give it to him, why not just sign him in July?

 

Holtby is having his first decent season in years and is too old to be part of a long term rebuild. 

 

Yeah, this is not what I want for Petry and Jake Allen.... 

[dlbalr]

1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

ok, with two weeks to go to the trade deadline, here is what I would do:

 

trade Petry  and Allen to DAL for Klingberg, Bar and Holtby

trade Chiarot to FLA for Nutivaara and 2023-first-dound-pick

re-sign Kulak, Clague and Wideman

 

The new D would look like:

Edmundson-Klingberg

Romanov-Savard ()

Kulak-Nutivaara

Clague-Wideman

with Norlinder, Harris, Struble Bar knocking on the door; and Brook, Shueneman as emergency call-ups. That looks much better to me than what we had at the beginning of this season

 

I've already commented on the two trade proposals in that thread but why in the world would the Habs keep Wideman?  He's not an NHL-calibre defenceman.  He's an offensive blueliner that can't produce points or defend.  He'll be out of the league next season.  They can find another fringe guy to fill that role.  Handedness is an important factor but talent is still more important - it'd be better to be short an RD than carry Wideman or someone like him again.

 

You also forgot about Guhle in your future depth chart.  I'd put the odds of him being in the NHL next season at very high (he's ready to play on the third pairing now) so I don't see them keeping Kulak around and effectively holding him back.  If Harris signs, he's also in the NHL, not knocking on the door.  He's getting an NHL promise from someone, either Montreal or on the open market in August.

 

As for the money, I get over $70 million with your 23-man roster before even adding Price's contract in (and no, that doesn't include Weber).  That wouldn't leave $4.25 million for a backup, that'd leave enough to keep Montembeault on a cheap deal.

[tomh009]

If you're thinking of re-signing someone like Wideman, I would rather consider Niku, who has quite similar characteristics (and has seven points in 11 games for the Rocket) and is seven years younger than Wideman.

 

And I would either sign or trade Lehkonen before he becomes eligible for an offer sheet.

[dlbalr]

15 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

And I would either sign or trade Lehkonen before he becomes eligible for an offer sheet.

 

I don't think Lehkonen is at any risk of an offer sheet.  Players like him don't get offer-sheeted.

 

[alfredoh2009]

18 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

I don't think Lehkonen is at any risk of an offer sheet.  Players like him don't get offer-sheeted.

 

Fool me once, shame on me

 

Fool me twice... blow up the team and strat over

 

[tomh009]

23 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

I don't think Lehkonen is at any risk of an offer sheet.  Players like him don't get offer-sheeted.

Maybe not. But why take the risk, unless you really can't agree on a deal.

[dlbalr]

1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

Maybe not. But why take the risk, unless you really can't agree on a deal.

 

But there is no risk.  If Lehkonen goes unsigned into free agency, he'll file for arbitration and in doing so, remove his eligibility for an offer sheet.  His market value isn't that hard to drill down - it's high $2M/low $3M for one year, mid-$3M on a longer-term deal ($3.4M-$3.75M would be my rough range).  There isn't going to be such a wide chasm in terms of team offer versus asking price for an offer sheet to be practical. 

 

Also, an offer-sheeting team would need to go high enough to dissuade the Habs from matching.  Based on last summer's numbers (since the 2022 ones aren't out yet) the high end of the second-round compensation tier is ~ $4.1 million.  The next tier up is an unprotected first rounder plus a third.  No team will do that because of the inability to protect the pick.  That makes the upper limit for an offer sheet ~ $4.1 million which is only a few hundred thousand above the top end of his real market value.  It's not $2.5M on a bridge versus $6.1 million on an offer sheet like Kotkaniemi's gap was. 

 

If you're an offer-sheeting team, is it worth giving up a second-round pick to overpay Lehkonen on a long-term deal?  Probably not.  It's certainly not worth it on a one-year deal as if things don't go well, he becomes a harder contract to trade and he still gets to the open market at 27.  The Kotkaniemi offer sheet had some upside for Carolina in terms of getting a player with multiple years of team control at a premium position.  (It's not working out but there was a pathway to an eventual win for them.)  I don't see any tangible upside to a Lehkonen offer sheet.  Signing one makes the Habs pay a bit more next season - yay for the signing team?   Not sure what the point of that is when the Canadiens likely aren't contenders in 22-23 anyway.

 

It's in Lehkonen's best interest to get to arbitration if he wants to maximize his earnings potential (ensure he gets to the open market in his prime) and to do that, he can't get an offer sheet.  There's no risk of him being tendered one.

[tomh009]

OK, I think you have talked me off the cliff, the offer sheet does seem highly unlikely.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

I think this has been covered before but is there a minimum offer that Carolina must make to KK or risk losing him for nothing?  Thanks 

[tomh009]

3 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

I think this has been covered before but is there a minimum offer that Carolina must make to KK or risk losing him for nothing?  Thanks 

$6.1M

[alfredoh2009]

6 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

$6.1M

🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 + 😁

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

16 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

$6.1M

 

Wow!  Thanks, I had thought it was a percentage, 80% or something  like that.  I am guessing they could agree to a lesser contract which is the likely scenario. There is always more pressure on a young player when they sign a big contract, perhaps KK wasn't ready to handle it.  No doubt Montreal messed up his development and that could end  being a lose-lose for everyone involved including KK. 

[dlbalr]

5 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

Wow!  Thanks, I had thought it was a percentage, 80% or something  like that.  I am guessing they could agree to a lesser contract which is the likely scenario. There is always more pressure on a young player when they sign a big contract, perhaps KK wasn't ready to handle it.  No doubt Montreal messed up his development and that could end  being a lose-lose for everyone involved including KK. 

 

They can take him to arbitration at 90% of that but that's a one-time option, it can't be done annually.  A longer-term deal in the mid-$4M range is something they'll likely look at.  Kotkaniemi has to know that he's a non-tender risk if he tries to force the qualifying offer.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

24 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 🤣 + 😁

 

22 points in 51 games...basically flatlined production from him. Serves them right

[tomh009]

4 hours ago, dlbalr said:

They can take him to arbitration at 90% of that but that's a one-time option, it can't be done annually.  A longer-term deal in the mid-$4M range is something they'll likely look at.  Kotkaniemi has to know that he's a non-tender risk if he tries to force the qualifying offer.

I expect he (and his agent) knows that there will likely be no qualifying offer. He is effectively a UFA: he can take the contract that Carolina offers, or he can try his luck on the open market.

 

I do hope it'll be the latter option.  🤣 🤣 🤣

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

31 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

I expect he (and his agent) knows that there will likely be no qualifying offer. He is effectively a UFA: he can take the contract that Carolina offers, or he can try his luck on the open market.

 

I do hope it'll be the latter option.  🤣 🤣 🤣

 

I think Carolina makes a big attempt to sign him to something reasonable otherwise they end up giving a 1st and 3rd round pick for 1 year of KK.  I could see a team like Seattle taking a run at him if he is available as they will have cap room and likely wouldn't mind spending it on a young player like KK. 

[Commandant]

Itd be funny as hell if he re-signs with us now that Bergy and Ducharme are gone.

 

Itd be hilarious if its on a cheap deal and he actually develops.

 

I know it wont happen but i can dream about how many laughs this would give me

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

15 hours ago, Commandant said:

Itd be funny as hell if he re-signs with us now that Bergy and Ducharme are gone.

 

Itd be hilarious if its on a cheap deal and he actually develops.

 

I know it wont happen but i can dream about how many laughs this would give me

 

For all that I rag on KK, we could use a big, rangy, young #3 C in the organization. I’d take him back with that role in mind for sure.

[alfredoh2009]

2 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

For all that I rag on KK, we could use a big, rangy, young #3 C in the organization. I’d take him back with that role in mind for sure.

 

and also Gachenyuk to play on his LW ?

[alfredoh2009]

Waiting for my daughter at the dentist, I thought I would revisit this thread and I corporate the feedback

 

I would trade the pending UFAs to get another 1st round pick in 2023 and some reliable RD to shelter the Habs LD prospects next year 

Roster would become a bubble team again if Price is healthy, but the picks and prospects gives the roster a more solid foundation :

 

The forwards would look like:

Anderson-Suzuki-Caufield

Drouin-Dvorak-Hoffman (🤑)

Byron  (🤑)-Evans-Gallagher(🤕 🤑)

Dauphin-Poehling-Pitlick

 

The new D would look like:

Edmundson-Klingberg (*)

UFA target in the summer or trade now for signing rights)

Romanov-Savard ()

Clague(or prospect)-Nutivaara (or similar)

 

with  Guhle, Notlinder, Harris, Struble knocking on the door; and Brook, Niku, Shueneman as emergency call-ups. 

[GHT120]

51 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

... Roster would become a bubble team again if Price is healthy ...

 

"Groundhog Day" returns and the possibility of Bedard or Michkov next summer disappears ... IMO the reward for the pain of this season is not just this coming draft but the opportunity potentially/hopefully to have top 7 picks (or better) in consecutive drafts since 1980 (Wickenheiser) 1981 (Mark Hunter).

[Commandant]

Agreed, I'm in no rush to make one or two signings with the goal of being a bubble team next season.

 

if this takes three or fours years to do, so be it, but i want to build a long term, successful team considered a cup contender, not just lets be a bubble team, not win and then have another season 4 years from now picking top 3, and then pick up the pieces and make a bubble team again. 

 

Actually build a sustainable roster and thats going to mean SOME OF Gallagher, Hoffman, Petry, Allen, Byron, Price and others are not going to be part of it.