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2022 NHL Entry Draft


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1 hour ago, DON said:

 

Jagger Firkus is a very interesting prospect, like Caulfield he will likely drop in the draft because of his size but he has a ton of skill. 

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12 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

Jagger Firkus is a very interesting prospect, like Caulfield he will likely drop in the draft because of his size but he has a ton of skill. 

He is a giant compared to Caufield (4 inches taller ... 12 lbs lighter but 3 years younger) ... 😉 ... seems to fit the "swing for the fence" mold.

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thank goodness for Mathias Brunet providing more details now instead of later this summer:

 

 

<< Marc Bergevin refusait systématiquement d’offrir des choix pour s’avancer. Il faisait le contraire. Jeff Gorton avait une stratégie différente à New York.

Et Kent Hughes semble être un gestionnaire confiant en ses moyens, qui n’hésitera pas à jouer d’audace au besoin pour améliorer l’équipe, quitte à surprendre le marché montréalais. >>

 

1) MB refused to use draft picks to advance in the draft (except: Lernout)

2) JG had a different approach at NYR, no mention of his approach at BOS

3) KH seems to be more inclined to take chances

 

One approach may be to trade up in the first round, like Gorton did in 2018

 

Another approach may be to trade Dvorak or Anderson for more draft picks

 

 

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I don't think we need more picks (at least not for this year). Better picks are always good, though.

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1 minute ago, tomh009 said:

I don't think we need more picks (at least not for this year). Better picks are always good, though.

 

Yes.  We don't quantity we need quality, high quality.  I am all for trading up if the right guy is available.  That's why this draft is so interesting, they have a lot of options after the first pick. 

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1 hour ago, GHT120 said:

He is a giant compared to Caufield (4 inches taller ... 12 lbs lighter but 3 years younger) ... 😉 ... seems to fit the "swing for the fence" mold.

 

He is taller but Caulfield is pretty solidly built, Firkus isn't much over 150 lbs  but I agree he is a "swing for the fences" pick, he will never be a 3rd or 4th line guy, a 35 goals scorer in the NHL or a bust. 

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the math in probability indicates that the larger your population, the more likely for an event to happen.

# overall                = probability os becoming NHLer (before SEA)

1 to 5 NHL rate     = 95%
6 to 10 NHL rate   = 80%
11 to 20 NHL rate  = 65%
21 to 31 NHL rate  = 50%
=====
32 to 46 NHL rate = 30%
47 to 62 NHL rate = 15%
=====
63 to 93 NHL rate = 10%
> 93 NHL rate       < 5%

 

meaning, the further away from Wright, the more picks are needed to have certainty of getting an NHLer out of the picks

 

getting more picks or moving up in the draft are two ways to do it. Again, from a math perspective

 

 

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1 hour ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

Yes.  We don't quantity we need quality, high quality.  I am all for trading up if the right guy is available.  That's why this draft is so interesting, they have a lot of options after the first pick. 

Mateychuk Mateychuk Mateychuk 

 

Love that prospect 

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1 hour ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

Yes.  We don't quantity we need quality, high quality.  I am all for trading up if the right guy is available.  That's why this draft is so interesting, they have a lot of options after the first pick. 

Yeah, I’m all for improving quality. it would be awesome, it we can move Calgary and out 2nd round picks with additional picks and players to get another top 10, and top 20 pick.

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2 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

meaning, the further away from Wright, the more picks are needed to have certainty of getting an NHLer out of the picks

 

getting more picks or moving up in the draft are two ways to do it. Again, from a math perspective

You are correct. But at this point I would expect that the Habs aren't looking for "an NHLer", they will be looking for someone who might become a top-line forward or top-pairing D. And those percentages drop off even faster.

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Given how much better he was under St. Louis, I wouldnt move Dvorak.  

 

He can be nice insulation for this year while Wright is a rookie and even then he isnt overpaid for a third liner when Wright passes him on the depth chart.

 

Also he will be worth more if he keeps up his strong play under St. Louis.

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5 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

He is taller but Caulfield is pretty solidly built, Firkus isn't much over 150 lbs  but I agree he is a "swing for the fences" pick, he will never be a 3rd or 4th line guy, a 35 goals scorer in the NHL or a bust. 

Hopefully by the time he is CC's age he will have filled out

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Where does Wright stack up against the past few presumptive first overall picks in terms of pre-draft buzz? Not too favourably it seems. Maybe roughly equal to Power, behind Laffy and Hughes, and way behind Dahlin?

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11 hours ago, Neech said:

Where does Wright stack up against the past few presumptive first overall picks in terms of pre-draft buzz? Not too favourably it seems. Maybe roughly equal to Power, behind Laffy and Hughes, and way behind Dahlin?

Pronman has pegged Wright at this;

"Tier: Projected bubble NHL All-Star and top of the lineup player

Skating: NHL average
Puck skills: NHL average
Hockey sense: Above NHL average
Compete: Above NHL average
Shot: High-end"

 

If bored, here are Wrights shifts vs Vrbetic/North Bay last week.

 

 

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8 hours ago, DON said:

Pronman has pegged Wright at this;

"Tier: Projected bubble NHL All-Star and top of the lineup player

Skating: NHL average
Puck skills: NHL average
Hockey sense: Above NHL average
Compete: Above NHL average
Shot: High-end"

 

 

 

 

Not the most exciting projections. I'm starting to worry that he's another Nugent-Hopkins and will have a few superior players drafted immediately after him.

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Skating: NHL Average by Pronmans eye.

 

Skating at the Top Prospects Game Skills comp.. (the drills they do are not like the NHL skills comp, its more like the nfl combine)

 

Results

Top overall skater.

Was #1 overall in multiple tests 

Was top 5 in every test.

 

Hmmmmm.... doesn't sound average to me.

 

Suffice it to say i dont agree with his assessment on the other traits either.

 

 

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19 hours ago, Commandant said:

Given how much better he was under St. Louis, I wouldnt move Dvorak.  

 

He can be nice insulation for this year while Wright is a rookie and even then he isnt overpaid for a third liner when Wright passes him on the depth chart.

 

Also he will be worth more if he keeps up his strong play under St. Louis.

 

Agree. As I’ve stated in many posts, I really believe rookies need insulation. We have to start putting our kids in a position to succeed, and contrary to the hard-core tankologists, I believe that means having quality vets around to take the load off.

 

9 hours ago, DON said:

Pronman has pegged Wright at this;

"Tier: Projected bubble NHL All-Star and top of the lineup player

Skating: NHL average
Puck skills: NHL average
Hockey sense: Above NHL average
Compete: Above NHL average
Shot: High-end"

 

If bored, here are Wrights shifts vs Vrbetic/North Bay last week.

 

 

 

Not exciting, but then again even this disproportionately dour assessment sees him as a borderline all-star and sure-fire top-line player. It seems that, whatever happens, we’re about to get a core roster player who will be a key C on our team for years to come. In other words, his ‘floor’ is very high; the debate is over his ceiling. That’s a good debate for a fan base to be having. 

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2 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Agree. As I’ve stated in many posts, I really believe rookies need insulation. We have to start putting our kids in a position to succeed, and contrary to the hard-core tankologists, I believe that means having quality vets around to take the load off ...

Assuming Wright is in the NHL next season (not certain he has much to gain from another OHL season) then starting as the 3C would put him in a much more comfortable situation.

 

2 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

... Not exciting, but then again even this disproportionately dour assessment sees him as a borderline all-star and sure-fire top-line player. It seems that, whatever happens, we’re about to get a core roster player who will be a key C on our team for years to come. In other words, his ‘floor’ is very high; the debate is over his ceiling. That’s a good debate for a fan base to be having. 

That is the rationale assessment ... and one I agree with.

 

One question I would have is what Pronman means by "All-Star" ... if he means the All-Star Game then it is not all that impressive, if he means (year-end) NHL All-Stars then it is.

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I thought the 1st pick of 2nd round would be good ones...but quick look and seems horrible results.

2009, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016 picks all BUSTS and 2010 was Tyler Pitilick, 2014 was B Lemieux.:spamafote:

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36 minutes ago, DON said:

I thought the 1st pick of 2nd round would be good ones...but quick look and seems horrible results.

2009, 2011, 2012, 2014, 2015, 2016 picks all BUSTS and 2010 was Tyler Pitilick, 2014 was B Lemieux.:spamafote:

Since 2010 Justin Faulk, Boone Jenner and Brandon Carlo have been drafted 37th ... maybe habs should trade down ...

😉

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22 hours ago, Neech said:

... I'm starting to worry that he's another Nugent-Hopkins and will have a few superior players drafted immediately after him.

https://montrealhockeynow.com/2022/05/21/shane-wrights-elite-underlying-numbers-should-comfort-montreal-canadiens-fans/

 

https://montrealhockeynow.com/2022/05/21/canadiens-have-six-draft-picks-tied-to-playoff-outcomes/

Rank (* Projected) Original Owner Of Pick Acquisition Method
1st Round - -
1st overall Montreal Canadiens Owned
29th overall* Calgary Flames Trade
2nd round - -
33rd overall Montreal Canadiens Owned
54th overall* Edmonton Oilers Trade
3rd Round - -
65th overall Montreal Canadiens Owned
74th overall Anaheim Ducks Trade
94th overall* Carolina Hurricanes Offer Sheet
4th Round - -
97th overall Montreal Canadiens Owned
121st overall* Tampa Bay Lightning Trade
122nd overall* New York Rangers Trade
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18 hours ago, DON said:

Do teams overthink it overnight before start of 2nd round?

 

I dont think so.

 

I think second round picks are a low percentage to be stars anyways like 10-15%.  And then you take a small sample size and variance can happen and you have a ~10 year run where no one really panned out as a big star at the first pick of the round.

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How much contact are NHL teams allowed to have with the kids before the draft (Habs & Wright)?

Habs did have a separate draft "combine" for Romanov and couple Europeans in past and think they often invited a select group to Montreal before the draft also.

But, Arizona did get hands slapped for some unauthorized testing or something.

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2 hours ago, DON said:

How much contact are NHL teams allowed to have with the kids before the draft (Habs & Wright)?

Habs did have a separate draft "combine" for Romanov and couple Europeans in past and think they often invited a select group to Montreal before the draft also.

But, Arizona did get hands slapped for some unauthorized testing or something.

I do not think Hugh-Gort setup any combines like MB did.

 

They seem to like watching from a lodge... I do not know what to expect from their evaluation of talent come next draft

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