Big Picture Ideas, Questions and Predictions Based on Cap Management, Team Construction and the Theory of Everything

[Butterface]

37 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Every team has long meetings with their scouts to make the BPA list.  And when that is done, that's the list you gotta stick with.   All the issues you bring up, what if one scout likes one player and another scout likes a different one, they discuss it in the room, watch more film and poll all the consultants and then rank the players by BPA based on the GM's final decision. 

 

By the end of all that discussion and film watching if the call is so negligible that my scouts have a hard time figuring out who the BPA is between 3 candidates, as GM, I would chose by position of need. I’d put that player on the list above the other two.

 

Glad we are in agreement.

[Commandant]

10 hours ago, Butterface said:

 

By the end of all that discussion and film watching if the call is so negligible that my scouts have a hard time figuring out who the BPA is between 3 candidates, as GM, I would chose by position of need. I’d put that player on the list above the other two.

 

Glad we are in agreement.

 

The number of times that the call is that neglible in the first round, is so small as to not even bother discussing.  It doesnt happen.

 

The team's scouts will always have preferences that early in the draft.

 

You are creating a scenario that just does not exist in real life.

 

 

[Butterface]

Fair enough, Commandant.

 

If I think I see this type of situation in the days leading up to the draft or during the draft, I’ll inquire about it then.

 

I respect your draft views… and I’m sure I’ll have lots to ask you then.

 

Just happened to have read this from your site just now…

 

https://lastwordonsports.com/hockey/2025/01/18/montreal-canadiens-extension-possibilities-for-forward/

 

The Canadiens and general manager Kent Hughes created an internal cap which began with Nick Suzuki. Suzuki’s contract was signed by former GM Marc Bergevin. Hughes set his contract as their ceiling when he signed Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky to similar deals that come in just below Suzuki’s $7. 875 million a year deal.

 

This begs the question of whether or not he would be willing to give Laine a bigger deal than his captain.

 

Laine has made a significant amount of money throughout his career and his love for the game has been revitalized thus far in Montreal. With that being said, it’s possible he would be willing to take a small pay cut to stay with the Canadiens.

 

The Canadiens do have some other things to consider when it comes to extending Laine. They have to look at resigning Jake Evans whose deal expires this season. Kaiden Guhle‘s $5.5 million dollar deal also kicks in next season, as does Juraj Slafkovsky’s contract. Not to mention they will eventually have to resign Lane Hutson to what will likely be a monster deal.

 

We’ve had this discussion before, but after seeing how Laine and Hutson have performed, is there any hope of keeping their contracts within the internal “Suzuki Ceiling” ?

 

It would be naive to think Hutson will settle for a number far below what comparable contracts are offering. He might be a baby faced assassin, but he wasn’t born yesterday - he’ll want to secure his financial future.

 

Laine is a different case. He might shave off a few dollars because he knows he has a reputation of health issues and because he may view Montreal as a great situation at this stage of his career.

 

Evans, on the other hand, isn’t going to command anything in the same salary atmosphere as those two. He might view this contract negotiation as a golden opportunity to cash in on his success this season. Or, he could understand that his numbers are not sustainable and that Montreal is a good home for him. Maybe Evans will realize he’s a stop-gap for a couple of years while we wait on Beck and Kapanen and ask for more dollars.
 

I suspect Montreal and Evans will find a fair, middle ground.

 

What I don’t expect is Laine or Hutson to agree to a “Suzuki Ceiling.”

 

[GHT120]

4 minutes ago, Butterface said:

Fair enough, Commandant.

 

If I think I see this type of situation in the days leading up to the draft or during the draft, I’ll inquire about it then.

 

I respect your draft views… and I’m sure I’ll have lots to ask you then.

 

Just happened to have read this from your site just now…

 

https://lastwordonsports.com/hockey/2025/01/18/montreal-canadiens-extension-possibilities-for-forward/

 

The Canadiens and general manager Kent Hughes created an internal cap which began with Nick Suzuki. Suzuki’s contract was signed by former GM Marc Bergevin. Hughes set his contract as their ceiling when he signed Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky to similar deals that come in just below Suzuki’s $7. 875 million a year deal.

 

This begs the question of whether or not he would be willing to give Laine a bigger deal than his captain.

 

Laine has made a significant amount of money throughout his career and his love for the game has been revitalized thus far in Montreal. With that being said, it’s possible he would be willing to take a small pay cut to stay with the Canadiens.

 

The Canadiens do have some other things to consider when it comes to extending Laine. They have to look at resigning Jake Evans whose deal expires this season. Kaiden Guhle‘s $5.5 million dollar deal also kicks in next season, as does Juraj Slafkovsky’s contract. Not to mention they will eventually have to resign Lane Hutson to what will likely be a monster deal.

 

We’ve had this discussion before, but after seeing how Laine and Hutson have performed, is there any hope of keeping their contracts within the internal “Suzuki Ceiling” ?

 

It would be naive to think Hutson will settle for a number far below what comparable contracts are offering. He might be a baby faced assassin, but he wasn’t born yesterday - he’ll want to secure his financial future.

 

Laine is a different case. He might shave off a few dollars because he knows he has a reputation of health issues and because he may view Montreal as a great situation at this stage of his career.

 

Evans, on the other hand, isn’t going to command anything in the same salary atmosphere as those two. He might view this contract negotiation as a golden opportunity to cash in on his success this season. Or, he could understand that his numbers are not sustainable and that Montreal is a good home for him. Maybe Evans will realize he’s a stop-gap for a couple of years while we wait on Beck and Kapanen and ask for more dollars.
 

I suspect Montreal and Evans will find a fair, middle ground.

 

What I don’t expect is Laine or Hutson to agree to a “Suzuki Ceiling.”

 

Easier to enforce the Suzuki ceiling when the cap was flat and the CC and Slaf were coming out of their ELCs ... Hutson is on his ELC but not likely to even consider an extension until next summer, Laine is a 2026 UFA and the cap is ever so slowly (😜) climbing ... so, I doubt the "Suzuki ceiling" will limit Hutson or Laine.

[Butterface]

Armia:

 

From 10 thoughts by Brian La Rose…

 

https://www.habsworld.net/2025/01/10-thoughts-dobes-the-star-against-the-stars/

 

2nd Star: Joel Armia – It took him a while but he has figured out how to be successful in Montreal’s system and the end result has been Armia playing with the type of consistency that has often eluded him throughout his career.  He had a solid game defensively (including a shift late in the second period without a stick that saw him throw multiple hits and eventually helped clear the zone) and added the clincher for good measure.

 

 

Firstly, I think Armia is playing great. As good as he was in the 2021 playoffs. That is my qualifier.

 

To sign Evans is my first priority. He is irreplaceable in the short term (1-2 years). We can manage without him, but it would be better to have him.

 

Armia would be great to have too. My problem is, I don’t trust him. We all know he has, “consistency that has often eluded him throughout his career” .
 

He is enigmatic, mysterious, puzzling, absent…. use any adjective to describe him you wish. He is a big guy with no mean streak, but he does some good things very well. He could be a solid piece for this team if he can be the player he was Thursday night or he could ghost us all and be as elusive as he was the first two and a half years of this contract he’s playing out.

 

We don’t have a lot of room to sign these two unless it is on a very short term basis as this write-up suggests….

 

https://thehockeywriters.com/canadiens-armia-scores-100th-career-goal/

 

Nevertheless, on pace for 37 points, with a current career high of 30 (in a 58-game 2019-20), Armia has become a key component of the team’s checking line with centre Jake Evans and fellow-winger Emil Heineman, the latter of whom is now tragically out 3-4 weeks after having gotten hit by a car a few days ago, when the team was visiting Utah HC.

Montreal Canadiens forward Joel Armia – (Jess Starr/The Hockey Writers)

In the last year of his four-year, $13.6 million contracts, Armia is poised to hit unrestricted free agency this summer. His and Evans’ play has led to some suggestions the Habs re-sign both, albeit to short-term deals with many prospects on the rise in the rebuilding team’s system.

 

 

It would definitely help the team to keep these two. The PK could continue to impress and it would give more depth as we initiate the prospects into the NHL. But it would also keep a roster spot away from a deserving prospect.

 

I love Armia’s play, I just can’t help but worry he will vanish again and be hard to trade. Maybe if Evans goes and isn’t replaced, I’ll be more open. Until then I’d rather see Roy have a chance.

 

Thats my feeling on Armia. Right or wrong. 

[Butterface]

36 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Easier to enforce the Suzuki ceiling when the cap was flat and the CC and Slaf were coming out of their ELCs ... Hutson is on his ELC but not likely to even consider an extension until next summer, Laine is a 2026 UFA and the cap is ever so slowly (😜) climbing ... so, I doubt the "Suzuki ceiling" will limit Hutson or Laine.

I think Montreal will want a contract for Hutson as soon as they can agree to one. I’d imagine one late this summer.

[Butterface]

This article is a good, quick rundown of our trade situation:

 

https://thesickpodcast.com/rumour-mill-habs-trade-watch/

 

 

[GHT120]

18 minutes ago, Butterface said:

I think Montreal will want a contract for Hutson as soon as they can agree to one. I’d imagine one late this summer.

Forgot that he burned a year of his ELC last season ... I agree the Habs might well want to extend him ASAP, I imagine Hutson may well want to wait and put in another 30 or more games next season to up the pressure on the Habs ... unless they are very generous in their offer this summer.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

1 hour ago, GHT120 said:

Easier to enforce the Suzuki ceiling when the cap was flat and the CC and Slaf were coming out of their ELCs ... Hutson is on his ELC but not likely to even consider an extension until next summer, Laine is a 2026 UFA and the cap is ever so slowly (😜) climbing ... so, I doubt the "Suzuki ceiling" will limit Hutson or Laine.

 

Agreed, Suzuki took the security of a longer term contract so he gave up the possibility of making more in the shorter term should the cap go up. The "Suzuki ceiling" will disappear as the cap goes up. 

[Commandant]

1 hour ago, Butterface said:

Fair enough, Commandant.

 

If I think I see this type of situation in the days leading up to the draft or during the draft, I’ll inquire about it then.

 

I respect your draft views… and I’m sure I’ll have lots to ask you then.

 

Just happened to have read this from your site just now…

 

https://lastwordonsports.com/hockey/2025/01/18/montreal-canadiens-extension-possibilities-for-forward/

 

The Canadiens and general manager Kent Hughes created an internal cap which began with Nick Suzuki. Suzuki’s contract was signed by former GM Marc Bergevin. Hughes set his contract as their ceiling when he signed Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky to similar deals that come in just below Suzuki’s $7. 875 million a year deal.

 

This begs the question of whether or not he would be willing to give Laine a bigger deal than his captain.

 

Laine has made a significant amount of money throughout his career and his love for the game has been revitalized thus far in Montreal. With that being said, it’s possible he would be willing to take a small pay cut to stay with the Canadiens.

 

The Canadiens do have some other things to consider when it comes to extending Laine. They have to look at resigning Jake Evans whose deal expires this season. Kaiden Guhle‘s $5.5 million dollar deal also kicks in next season, as does Juraj Slafkovsky’s contract. Not to mention they will eventually have to resign Lane Hutson to what will likely be a monster deal.

 

We’ve had this discussion before, but after seeing how Laine and Hutson have performed, is there any hope of keeping their contracts within the internal “Suzuki Ceiling” ?

 

It would be naive to think Hutson will settle for a number far below what comparable contracts are offering. He might be a baby faced assassin, but he wasn’t born yesterday - he’ll want to secure his financial future.

 

Laine is a different case. He might shave off a few dollars because he knows he has a reputation of health issues and because he may view Montreal as a great situation at this stage of his career.

 

Evans, on the other hand, isn’t going to command anything in the same salary atmosphere as those two. He might view this contract negotiation as a golden opportunity to cash in on his success this season. Or, he could understand that his numbers are not sustainable and that Montreal is a good home for him. Maybe Evans will realize he’s a stop-gap for a couple of years while we wait on Beck and Kapanen and ask for more dollars.
 

I suspect Montreal and Evans will find a fair, middle ground.

 

What I don’t expect is Laine or Hutson to agree to a “Suzuki Ceiling.”

 

 

I didnt write the article but i will comment on it.  The suzuki ceiling is going to get blown to smithereens in the coming years.  Thats the nature of the league when the cap will be rising considerably now that we have gotten past the backpayments due to covid.

[Butterface]

1 hour ago, Commandant said:

The suzuki ceiling is going to get blown to smithereens in the coming years.  Thats the nature of the league when the cap will be rising considerably now that we have gotten past the backpayments due to covid.

 

The comparables for Hutson from this article below:

https://montrealhockeynow.com/2025/01/15/hutsons-development-could-impact-canadiens-summer-plans/
 

Comparable Defencemen Looking For Contracts

 

Hutson’s only 45 games into his NHL career, but it seems like a safe bet that he’ll, at the very least, be an electric top-3 defenceman for the Canadiens for years to come; with the potential of being a superstar for the team down the line (even if some fans think that he’s already reached that status!).

 

It becomes very tricky for the Canadiens, as Hutson is putting up numbers that surpass the rookie seasons of some of the best defencemen in the NHL.

Take Adam Fox for example. He was able to register eight goals and 42 points in his first 70 games with the Rangers, only to follow that up with five goals and 47 points in just 55 games during the shortened 2020-2021 season.

 

He was handsomely rewarded for his significant on-ice improvement with a 7-year, $66.5M contract; which comes out to a $9.5M cap hit.

 

Just a month before Fox broke the bank, so too did another American defenceman in Quinn Hughes. The Norris-winner had just finished 41-point season, in just 56 games, and was able to extract a 6-year, $47.1M contract with a very friendly $7.85M cap hit.

Just one season prior, Hughes had put up an impressive rookie campaign; registering eight goals and 53 points in just 68 games. He was ultimately edged out of the Calder race by another young defensive phenom in Cale Makar, but it was clear already then that he would be a special defenceman.

 

Even Makar , who had put up a point-per-game season with eight goals and 44 points in 44 games for the Avalanche during the 2020-2021 season, was able to extract a 6-year, $54M ($9M cap hit).

 

Why is this important? Because these three young defencemen set a new price tag and precedent for young defencemen.

 

Just looking at where things line up, I think our number needs an adjustment by $500,000 to $1,000,000.

 

Now look where Hutson is in points:

 

1. Zach Werenski 51 (9.6M)

2. Cale Makar  50  (9M)

3. Quinn Hughes  48  (7.85M)

4. Josh Morrissey  40 (6.25M)

5. Shea Theodore  37 (7.4M)

6. Lane Hutson  36

7. Victor Hedman  35 (8M)

7. Evan Bouchard  35 (contract year)

9. Adam Fox  34 (9.5M)

 

Highest-paid NHL defensemen:

 

Erik Karlsson, Pittsburgh, $11,500,000

Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo, $11,000,000

Drew Doughty, Los Angeles, $11,000,000

Zach Werenski, Columbus, $9,583,333

Seth Jones, Chicago, $9,500,000

Charlie McAvoy, Boston, $9,500,000

Adam Fox, N.Y. Rangers, 9,500,000

Darnell Nurse, Edmonton, $9,250,000

Roman Josi, Nashville, $9,059,000

Cale Makar, Colorado, $9,000,000

Dougie Hamilton, New Jersey, $9,000,000

Alex Pietrangelo, Vegas, $8,800,000

Moritz Seider, Detroit, $8,550,000

Mikhail Sergachev, Utah, $8,500,000

Miro Heiskanen, Dallas, $8,450,000

Owen Power, Buffalo, $8,350,000

Jake Sanderson, Ottawa, $8,050,000

Brent Burns, Carolina, $8,000,000

John Carlson, Washington, $8,000,000

Jacob Trouba, Anaheim, $8,000,000

Thomas Chabot, Ottawa, $8,000,000

 

Three things are evident here:

Guhle is a steal.

Matheson is a steal.

Hutson is worth more than 7.9M

[BCHabnut]

18 hours ago, Butterface said:

 

The comparables for Hutson from this article below:

https://montrealhockeynow.com/2025/01/15/hutsons-development-could-impact-canadiens-summer-plans/
 

Comparable Defencemen Looking For Contracts

 

Hutson’s only 45 games into his NHL career, but it seems like a safe bet that he’ll, at the very least, be an electric top-3 defenceman for the Canadiens for years to come; with the potential of being a superstar for the team down the line (even if some fans think that he’s already reached that status!).

 

It becomes very tricky for the Canadiens, as Hutson is putting up numbers that surpass the rookie seasons of some of the best defencemen in the NHL.

Take Adam Fox for example. He was able to register eight goals and 42 points in his first 70 games with the Rangers, only to follow that up with five goals and 47 points in just 55 games during the shortened 2020-2021 season.

 

He was handsomely rewarded for his significant on-ice improvement with a 7-year, $66.5M contract; which comes out to a $9.5M cap hit.

 

Just a month before Fox broke the bank, so too did another American defenceman in Quinn Hughes. The Norris-winner had just finished 41-point season, in just 56 games, and was able to extract a 6-year, $47.1M contract with a very friendly $7.85M cap hit.

Just one season prior, Hughes had put up an impressive rookie campaign; registering eight goals and 53 points in just 68 games. He was ultimately edged out of the Calder race by another young defensive phenom in Cale Makar, but it was clear already then that he would be a special defenceman.

 

Even Makar , who had put up a point-per-game season with eight goals and 44 points in 44 games for the Avalanche during the 2020-2021 season, was able to extract a 6-year, $54M ($9M cap hit).

 

Why is this important? Because these three young defencemen set a new price tag and precedent for young defencemen.

 

Just looking at where things line up, I think our number needs an adjustment by $500,000 to $1,000,000.

 

Now look where Hutson is in points:

 

1. Zach Werenski 51 (9.6M)

2. Cale Makar  50  (9M)

3. Quinn Hughes  48  (7.85M)

4. Josh Morrissey  40 (6.25M)

5. Shea Theodore  37 (7.4M)

6. Lane Hutson  36

7. Victor Hedman  35 (8M)

7. Evan Bouchard  35 (contract year)

9. Adam Fox  34 (9.5M)

 

Highest-paid NHL defensemen:

 

Erik Karlsson, Pittsburgh, $11,500,000

Rasmus Dahlin, Buffalo, $11,000,000

Drew Doughty, Los Angeles, $11,000,000

Zach Werenski, Columbus, $9,583,333

Seth Jones, Chicago, $9,500,000

Charlie McAvoy, Boston, $9,500,000

Adam Fox, N.Y. Rangers, 9,500,000

Darnell Nurse, Edmonton, $9,250,000

Roman Josi, Nashville, $9,059,000

Cale Makar, Colorado, $9,000,000

Dougie Hamilton, New Jersey, $9,000,000

Alex Pietrangelo, Vegas, $8,800,000

Moritz Seider, Detroit, $8,550,000

Mikhail Sergachev, Utah, $8,500,000

Miro Heiskanen, Dallas, $8,450,000

Owen Power, Buffalo, $8,350,000

Jake Sanderson, Ottawa, $8,050,000

Brent Burns, Carolina, $8,000,000

John Carlson, Washington, $8,000,000

Jacob Trouba, Anaheim, $8,000,000

Thomas Chabot, Ottawa, $8,000,000

 

Three things are evident here:

Guhle is a steal.

Matheson is a steal.

Hutson is worth more than 7.9M

Look at moritz seider and brock faber contracts as close comparable as well. They signed early and had rfa years bought. Very comparable to hutson and in the high 7s

[Butterface]

18 minutes ago, BCHabnut said:

Look at moritz seider and brock faber contracts as close comparable as well. They signed early and had rfa years bought. Very comparable to hutson and in the high 7s

Faber 8.5M x 8Y

Seider 8.55M x 7Y

 

[hab29RETIRED]

29 minutes ago, BCHabnut said:

Look at moritz seider and brock faber contracts as close comparable as well. They signed early and had rfa years bought. Very comparable to hutson and in the high 7s

Not comparable - they make more, were signed when the cap was lower. Did not have the same numbers that Hutson is on in their ROOKIE year.  Hutson should blow by Seider’s 50 points and Faber’s totals.

 

i can’t see him signing for a long-term deal that doesn’t start with a 9. He may even get a higher number than Subban did on his second deal.

[BCHabnut]

1 hour ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Not comparable - they make more, were signed when the cap was lower. Did not have the same numbers that Hutson is on in their ROOKIE year.  Hutson should blow by Seider’s 50 points and Faber’s totals.

 

i can’t see him signing for a long-term deal that doesn’t start with a 9. He may even get a higher number than Subban did on his second deal.

I was thinking 8 to 9 based on comparables. Some reason I thought seider faber were 7.9. They were 8.5.

[Butterface]

I had Hutson at 8.5M to begin with.

 

We had a discussion about the internal “Suzuki Ceiling” so I lowered it to slightly more than Suzuki at 7.9M. Now his play (except for the bounces last night) has made it more plausible he will get back towards 8.5M.

 

It could be more, but I don’t think it would be much less.

 

The NHL, from what I heard on the TV last night, should announce next year’s salary cap limit by TDL. They may in fact release the cap limits a few years forward this time so that GMs have a better runway to plan their rosters.

 

That will help guide our estimates of future cap limits beyond the 1-3 years they might disclose. It will also maybe help steer where Hutson, Laine, Dach etc might land. 
 

Dach we may want to sign before he gets on a roll next year…. It would be scary if he suddenly breaks out and commands big numbers. Risk begins to creep into Hughes’ mind… this is definitely going to be a tougher thing to manage - coming out of a rebuild, choosing the core and making riskier big roster decisions.

 

We have had lots of cap room, now it will begin to get used up. He needs to get the dollar amounts right. 

 

The next update on the spreadsheet I will pump Hutson back up to 8.5M for 8Ys.

 

 

[GNick]

On 1/18/2025 at 12:53 PM, Butterface said:

Fair enough, Commandant.

 

If I think I see this type of situation in the days leading up to the draft or during the draft, I’ll inquire about it then.

 

I respect your draft views… and I’m sure I’ll have lots to ask you then.

 

Just happened to have read this from your site just now…

 

https://lastwordonsports.com/hockey/2025/01/18/montreal-canadiens-extension-possibilities-for-forward/

 

The Canadiens and general manager Kent Hughes created an internal cap which began with Nick Suzuki. Suzuki’s contract was signed by former GM Marc Bergevin. Hughes set his contract as their ceiling when he signed Caufield and Juraj Slafkovsky to similar deals that come in just below Suzuki’s $7. 875 million a year deal.

 

This begs the question of whether or not he would be willing to give Laine a bigger deal than his captain.

 

Laine has made a significant amount of money throughout his career and his love for the game has been revitalized thus far in Montreal. With that being said, it’s possible he would be willing to take a small pay cut to stay with the Canadiens.

 

The Canadiens do have some other things to consider when it comes to extending Laine. They have to look at resigning Jake Evans whose deal expires this season. Kaiden Guhle‘s $5.5 million dollar deal also kicks in next season, as does Juraj Slafkovsky’s contract. Not to mention they will eventually have to resign Lane Hutson to what will likely be a monster deal.

 

We’ve had this discussion before, but after seeing how Laine and Hutson have performed, is there any hope of keeping their contracts within the internal “Suzuki Ceiling” ?

 

It would be naive to think Hutson will settle for a number far below what comparable contracts are offering. He might be a baby faced assassin, but he wasn’t born yesterday - he’ll want to secure his financial future.

 

Laine is a different case. He might shave off a few dollars because he knows he has a reputation of health issues and because he may view Montreal as a great situation at this stage of his career.

 

Evans, on the other hand, isn’t going to command anything in the same salary atmosphere as those two. He might view this contract negotiation as a golden opportunity to cash in on his success this season. Or, he could understand that his numbers are not sustainable and that Montreal is a good home for him. Maybe Evans will realize he’s a stop-gap for a couple of years while we wait on Beck and Kapanen and ask for more dollars.
 

I suspect Montreal and Evans will find a fair, middle ground.

 

What I don’t expect is Laine or Hutson to agree to a “Suzuki Ceiling.”

 

4 million be my cutoff for Evans. I think that being generous. If he wants more or test the market I would trade him. Centers in high demand this deadline. 

 

Dach seems to be back to old self and we have center depth coming. In Beck, Kapanen, Hage.

 

Around 4m will buy us a hell of a 4th line center 

[JoeLassister]

On 1/13/2025 at 8:03 PM, Commandant said:

 

There are always vet centres who can kill penalties and play defensive minutes in free agency.  My priority would be to sign Evans, but if he gets too expensive I'm casting a wide net on who to sign. 

 

I'm not 100% on any of these but if I was GM I'd be digging deeper on scouting the following. 

 

Mikael Granlund

Vlad Namestnikov

Sam Steel

Jack Roslovic

Brock Nelson

Alex Kerfoot

Trent Frederic

Luke Kunin

 

Maybe more.... 

 

Then I'd see the trade market. 

 

See its about not being rigid and having options....

 

 

Catching up on this long unread thread. 

 

How aggressive would you be for Brock Neslson when July 1st comes ?  

 

Plays on the PK, scores goals, good vet who doesn't seem like a trouble maker at all. 

Seems like a great fit, no ?

[Commandant]

12 minutes ago, JoeLassister said:

Catching up on this long unread thread. 

 

How aggressive would you be for Brock Neslson when July 1st comes ?  

 

Plays on the PK, scores goals, good vet who doesn't seem like a trouble maker at all. 

Seems like a great fit, no ?

 

33 years old and has shown some signs of decline but at the same time the Isles suck.

 

3 years 12 million (4 million AAV)

 

Would prefer two years if possible but probably got to add the year to get it done.

[Butterface]

In this podcast they mention:
 

https://canadiensaggr.com/media-player/75522/montreal-canadiens-player-trade-value-rankings-and-are-the-habs-for-real

 

10:42 … suggest cap gets to 95M next season and north of 100 in next 2-3 Seasons

 

18:00 ….. trade value rankings begins… 

33:00 … interesting take on Tuch

37:37 …. Tier 4… seems off… Dach ranked here… but fair for now

47:22 … Tier 3… 

52:55 …. Tier 2…

61:00 ….Tier 1…

 

 

 

 

[Butterface]

Lots to look at in this thread, article or whatever it is…

 

https://montrealhockeynow.com/2025/01/22/montreal-canadiens-impact-of-the-cancelation-of-escrow-on-the-canadiens-offseason/

 

Some points on salary cap and roster moves but article still worth a full read:

 

SALARY CAP:

 

The NHL’s cancellation of escrow for the remainder of the season, coupled with record profits projected to hit $6-7 billion, could force the Montreal Canadiens to rethink their offseason strategy.

The issue now is, the entire NHL may benefit from a near $10M boost in salary cap space, as league revenues continue to soar. The expectation among sources is that the NHL and NHLPA will agree to artificially increase the salary cap from $88M closer to $97M, instead of the previously projected $93M first discussed in September.

 

Coming off another stellar season with the Colorado Avalanche, Rantanen is reportedly seeking $14 million annually in his next contract.

If the NHL and NHLPA agree to artificially raise the cap to $96-97 million, as some reports suggest, Rantanen could very well command that figure on the open market. Such a deal would further tighten Colorado’s already-strained salary structure and leave them with difficult decisions regarding their roster.

 

ROSTER:

 

One of the most pressing needs for the Montreal Canadiens is shoring up their defense, particularly on the right side.

 

The Canadiens have also expressed interest in bolstering their top-nine forward group.

Jake Evans cooling off offensively may make him easier to re-sign, even given the increase in salary cap, given his desire to stay in Montreal.

 

Montreal Hockey Now previously spoke about the need to sign Lane Hutson as soon as possible, and that urgency has now gone from “cautionary” to a full-on “red alert.”

[Butterface]

Seeing how things are shaping up… Hutson and Demidov… I’ve increased both their contracts after their ELCs have expired.

 

I just see too much promise - even while outside the NHL in Demidov’s case - the combination of skill and cap growth align and the outcome can only mean big money for these two.
 

 

[Butterface]

Of Daily Faceoff’s Top 22…

Bob, Craig and Daily Faceoff together agree on 14 of those players.

Bob has 19 of the same players in the Daily Faceoff’s top 22…

Craig has 18 of the same players in the Daily Faceoff top 22…

Craig and Bob agree on 15 of the Top 22 between each other.

 

The top 4 on all 3 lists are very similar… after that they begin to differ.. beyond 10th they differ more.

 

The only player that is the same rank on all three lists in the top 22 is the number one pick…. Schaefer.

 

If we just do top 10….

All three agree on 7 in top 10

Bob agrees with 8 on Daily Faceoff’s top 10.

Craig agrees with 7 on Daily Faceoff’s top 10

Bob and Craig agree on 8 with each other in their top 10.

 

So as you can see the players are all fairly well evaluated in groups, but there are discrepancies on what order the talent is arranged in amongst the three lists.

 

Someone like Cameron Schmidt is 7th with Button, 17th with Daily Faceoff and 30th on Bob’s list.

 

Someone like Radim Mrtka is 12th on Bob’s list, 20th on Daily Faceoff’s and 23rd on Craig’s….

Logan Hensler is similarly 11th, 22nd and 26th.

 

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/matthew-schaefer-a-unanimous-no-1-in-bob-mckenzie-s-mid-season-nhl-draft-ranking-1.2240142
 

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/craig-s-list-matthew-schaefer-ascends-to-no-1-for-2025-nhl-draft-1.2235722
 

https://www.dailyfaceoff.com/news/2025-nhl-draft-rankings-mid-season-top-64-matthew-schaefer-porter-martone-james-hagens-michael-misa

 

The in-house scouts and draft experts have their work cut out for them… moving up in a draft and paying a sweetener when the player could have fallen to you anyway would be a shame… thank goodness you’d never know if he would have fallen to you.

 

 

[Butterface]

More Cap related stuff:

 

https://thehockeywriters.com/canadiens-should-cautious-buyers-trade-deadline-2025/

 

On an episode of Agent Provocateur, NHL agent Allan Walsh reported that the NHL’s salary cap will have an upper limit of $97 million for the 2025-26 season.

 

“You heard it from me. I am telling you right now, you can write it down. I am not divulging any confidences here, I am not divulging any inside information per se, I am telling you right now the upper limit of the salary cap next year will be $97 million” 

from Allan Walsh, NHL Agent via Agent Provocateur 

 

 

 

[Butterface]

An article on Mailloux and snippets on past trades and future of d-core:
 

https://thehockeywriters.com/canadiens-mailloux-adds-surplus-defensemen-prospect-pool/
 

Trading all three defensemen was a risk worth taking. The Canadiens wanted to build around Hutson, Kaiden Guhle, Arber Xhekaj, and Mailloux. All four skaters are 25 or younger and they provide the unit with all the skills necessary to have a great defense. The Canadiens look like they can make the playoffs this season and their youth movement on defense only provides more optimism.

 

 

Thought it was weird they left out Reinbacher…. But okay.

 

Interested to see how the Habs attack the draft this year… they’ve slid down the draft this month and a half and new strategies will be needed with this dramatic change in the team’s fortunes and the draft misfortunes this success has caused.

 

It will maybe go to the TDL wire to see what management has up their sleeve for move one.