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Big Picture Ideas, Questions and Predictions Based on Cap Management, Team Construction and the Theory of Everything


Butterface

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I read "until he did his commandant thing" before @Commandant first replied, but I immediately knew it would be a trigger ... 

 

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that it was not intended to do so, but it was pretty clearly speaking negatively of him ... poor phrasing perhaps ... I assume you meant it more as a "timestamp" referring to something like "until we had our falling out" to indicate when you stopped following Commandant and quoting him on this forum.

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54 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

I read "until he did his commandant thing" before @Commandant first replied, but I immediately knew it would be a trigger ... 

 

I'll give you the benefit of the doubt that it was not intended to do so, but it was pretty clearly speaking negatively of him ... poor phrasing perhaps ... I assume you meant it more as a "timestamp" referring to something like "until we had our falling out" to indicate when you stopped following Commandant and quoting him on this forum.


I was actually praising him, since he was the only reference I used to use because I respected him so much.

 

but for whatever reason he turn on me and did his Comandant thing . I just do not understand the hate 

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5 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I was actually praising him, since he was the only reference I used to use because I respected him so much.

 

but for whatever reason he turn on me and did his Comandant thing . I just do not understand the hate 

@Alfredo, please put him on ignore and refrain from referring to him. Let's not let this get out of hand. This will be the simplest way.

 

I don't want to ban anyone, even temporarily, but this is not why people are reading this forum.

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7 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

@Alfredo, please put him on ignore and refrain from referring to him. Let's not let this get out of hand. This will be the simplest way.

 

I don't want to ban anyone, even temporarily, but this is not why people are reading this forum.

Got it

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From TSN video below:
 

https://www.tsn.ca/nhl/insider-trading-cap-projection-likely-to-be-announced-at-4-nations-1.2244314

 

The expectation is that the NHL will unveil that secret as early as the upcoming 4 Nationals Face-Off.

 

They may go beyond that, not just for 2025-26, but perhaps a year or two after that as well.

 

There’s been much speculation on what the cap space situation might look like for next year and I’m told that it is very unlikely that it will climb above $96 million.

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34 minutes ago, Butterface said:

... I’m told that it is very unlikely that it will climb above $96 million.

An $8 million jump would be welcomed by the teams that are spending to the cap ... would give the Habs $15M projected cap space, sans LTIR or without moving out any contracts (e.g., Gallagher, Anderson, Price).

 

NOTE: Once Price's bonus is paid out on July 1st a team can acquire his $10.5M AAV cap hit for $2M in actual salary ... with a BIG cap increase some lower revenue teams might be very happy to take him on.

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11 hours ago, GHT120 said:

 

 

NOTE: Once Price's bonus is paid out on July 1st a team can acquire his $10.5M AAV cap hit for $2M in actual salary ... with a BIG cap increase some lower revenue teams might be very happy to take him on.

This is very possible if they need the cap space.

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Excerpts from article below:
 

https://montrealhockeynow.com/2025/01/31/montreal-canadiens-salary-cap-impact-increase-projection-contracts-habs-nhl/
 

We do have to keep in mind the eventual mega-contract offered to Hutson. I expected it to be close to $9 or $10 million before the increase was announced, but the higher salary cap will give Hutson’s camp more ammo to work with as both parties attempt to find a number they can agree on.

 

 

On our team looking at cap space with projected contracts:

 

2025-26     7.7M with Price’s contract 18.2M without

2026-27      19.4M

2027-28      31.25M


(these numbers differ from the article because of salary projections)

(the numbers on the spreadsheet show next three salary cap projections)

 

I concur with articles saying we are in a good space with 4 contracts signed of 5 years or more… lots of money to throw around…. responsibly.

 

IMG_4592.jpeg

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  • 1 month later...

13 Forwards

7 Dmen

2 Goalies


This is without Reinbacher, Kapanen, Engstrom on the team.

 

4.8M Cap Space (with Price contract included) 

 

Evans contract is great number and term. Big win for Hughes.

Creates some competition for a spot next year for Roy, Beck and Kapanen.

 

IMG_5177.jpeg

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Welcome back, I thought you were gone. 

 

I now expect that Dvorak is gone as a UFA.  I don't expect to see him traded cause I think his contract is too high to trade and if they do use retention its on Savard or Armia. 

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2 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Welcome back, I thought you were gone. 

 

I now expect that Dvorak is gone as a UFA.  I don't expect to see him traded cause I think his contract is too high to trade and if they do use retention its on Savard or Armia. 


Thanks… not gone… had some life things… 

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2 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:


Yep welcome back 

 

Keep that spreadsheet ready because Hughes is doing something this week 


Thanks.

 

Yeah, I figured he had some work to do by Friday afternoon. So far, so good.

 

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After 10 games Dobes is ahead of Monty in every statistic if boiled down per 60 mins.

 

I see people talking about keeping Monty over Dobes in a few years and I roll my eyes. I think Dobes has a higher ceiling. Let’s wait until we see if Doby is capable. 
 

He certainly did drop in level toward his AHL SV% as I expected. His last game was very good. Neither goal was an error on his part. Hopefully he’s found his groove.
 

This hockey new articles gets me frustrated. I agree with 3 years, but don’t agree with the expectation we keep Monty over Dobes…… yet.
 

I even assume Dobes will have Monty’s job sooner than later. (Sooner being at some point next season to season and a half). He is way more athletic than Monty in my opinion.
 

https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/montreal-canadiens/latest-news/whats-the-plan-with-jakub-dobes
 

 

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Again, its a tiny sample size based on playing behind a team that is playing much better now than it was in November/October which only effects one goalie's stats. 

 

It also is based on ten games and other teams haven't done a lot of video scouting on him. 

 

 

Montembault, after a great game against the Sabres, is firmly a top 10 goalie in GSAx for the season..... he's been a good goalie this season. 

 

Remember Andrew Hammond, the Hamburglar?  How'd that work out once teams started scouting him.  There are lots of examples. Its way too early to decide a guy with 10 NHL games is going to steal the job of a guy top 10 in GSAx.

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23 minutes ago, Butterface said:

This hockey new articles gets me frustrated. I agree with 3 years, but don’t agree with the expectation we keep Monty over Dobes…… yet.
 

I even assume Dobes will have Monty’s job sooner than later. (Sooner being at some point next season to season and a half). He is way more athletic than Monty in my opinion.
 

https://thehockeynews.com/nhl/montreal-canadiens/latest-news/whats-the-plan-with-jakub-dobes

They are not absolute in saying that: "They would set a price for him too which would make it easier to trade him down the road if they hold on to Montembeault which seems likely at this point in time but that could change. "

 

As Commandant said, Montembeault has established himself as a solid starter, a GSAx/60 over three seasons (130 games) of roughly 0.25, which is firmly top-15 starter territory, and close to 0.4 this year. At this point he's the one we know can be a solid starter. Dobes, only 10 games so far, not enough to know.

 

THN says as much, too, but adds that things could change. And maybe Dobes plays 30 games next year and has a GSAx/60 of 0.5 again. It's not super likely, I think, but it could happen, and that would be a great thing for the Habs to have two high-quality goalies in the next season or two.

 

And, yes, if that happens, and if Fowler works out, and if he's ready for NHL before the 2028 season (he's only 20 at the moment), then Hughes will have to do something about it. But I suspect that problem is not something he's losing sleep over ...

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On 3/4/2025 at 2:15 PM, Butterface said:

Evans contract is great number and term. Big win for Hughes.

Creates some competition for a spot next year for Roy, Beck and Kapanen.

Maybe Evans should rank as "secondary core" now? 😊 Fourth line, but still a key player.

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I still argue that Evans is our third centre.  He's ahead of Dvorak, even if Dvorak arguably plays with better wingers.

 

Evans seems to get more TOI despite that. 

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37 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

Maybe Evans should rank as "secondary core" now? 😊 Fourth line, but still a key player.


Probably should given term and obvious importance to Hughes and the team. 

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11 hours ago, tomh009 said:

Maybe Evans should rank as "secondary core" now? 😊 Fourth line, but still a key player.

Bottom half of the roster core perhaps.

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Jeeeeeeeeepers…

 

from this article:

 https://montrealhockeynow.com/2025/03/07/montreal-canadiens-nhl-trade-deadline-primer-what-to-expect-trade-rumours/

 

ON TOPIC: Impact Of NHL Salary Cap Increase On Montreal Canadiens Future

 

We do have to keep Lane Hutson’s eventual contract extension in mind. It won’t be cheap, especially since Hutson has a tendency to break records set by some of the best defencemen in league history. I expect it to start at $11 million or $12 million per season, but that’s a conversation for another day. All we know for now is that Hutson will command a well-deserved raise.

 

 

Thats a lot of cheese… I have 8.5M on spreadsheet and was willing to go to 9.5M… 11 or 12 sounds high…. Or am I high ? (And I don’t mean dollar estimate) 

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