dlbalr

They had an 18.5% chance of winning. The odds of winning don't really change as it's still 14 ping pong balls and 1,000 combinations on the lookup table even after San Jose won the first one (they just redraw if needed). So the probability of them winning 3 times is 18.5% x 18.5% x 18.5% which equals 0.6331625%.

Petry's offensive numbers weren't great when he was in Edmonton but I wouldn't say he was terrible with them though. But yes, Barron's production at the same point as Petry career-wise would be higher.

Maybe it's just me but Barron becoming Petry seems like a pretty good outcome. That player, when young and cheap, would carry pretty good trade value as well.

Nope, I legitimately meant Carolina as I'm talking about Aho, not Kotkaniemi. If the Habs offered an eight-year deal, the compensation would have been much higher since the maximum divisor is five years so the picks owed would be based on total compensation for 8 years divided by 5. By putting the AAV where they did, there was no way they could go higher than 5 years. Carolina, meanwhile, had been pushing for a max-term agreement to that point. With Kotkaniemi, Montreal was only offering a bridge deal for understandable reasons.

According to a report from Sweden, Mattias Norlinder intends to stay in North America next season. That messes with my hope that he'd sign over there early, allowing the Habs to qualify him and hold his rights. Now, they'll have to re-sign him or release him. https://hockeysverige.se/2024/05/08/beskeden-om-calle-sjalin-mattias-norlinder-och-filip-engaras

The Habs have five players participating this year: F Cole Caufield (USA) D Kaiden Guhle (Canada) F Oliver Kapanen (Finland) F Vinzenz Rohrer (Austria) F Juraj Slafkovsky (Slovakia)

And e), it got him to UFA eligibility much earlier. The Hurricanes wanted to sign him to an eight-year deal. By taking the offer sheet, he got to his richer contract three years sooner while still in his prime.

I don't know who said he had no value (I know I didn't in the post you quoted). What is his standalone value? If it's a fourth-round pick, it's pretty inconsequential. On a playoff team, he's a 7/8 guy, that's not worth trading much of anything for. And for a rebuilding team, he's worth it as a depth piece but Winnipeg had no luck trading him which is how Montreal got him off waivers in the first place. Rebuilding teams will want a warm body for as cheap an acquisition cost as possible so while Kovacevic would indeed fit that bill, those teams won't offer much of anything for him. If they can't get him for dirt cheap, they'll just claim someone off waivers (like Anaheim claiming Gustav Lindstrom during the season). Suppose the Habs are in trade talks for an impact player and they're trying to find the missing piece to a package off. If Hughes offers up a fourth-round pick (or Kovacevic if that's his value) as that missing piece, it's probably not moving the needle. That's what I mean by close to throw-in value; he's not going to be the difference-maker to match up value in a bigger trade. He has some value, sure, but not enough to do anything of note which, as others have said, means it probably makes more sense to keep him at this point.

Scandella's a free agent this summer, not a year from now. That probably takes this one off the table.

If a player doesn't have good trade value on his own, he's not going to have more value being included in a trade package. He's close to throw-in value in a package deal, more of a third piece type of inclusion.

Would it? What would the price point need to be to dissuade Carolina from matching it? And remember, the first-round pick(s) the Habs would surrender would be unprotected - they can't substitute in the CGY/FLA one. Necas is a 2C, is that really what they should be parting with prime draft capital to get? If they were further along in the process (in other words, a steady playoff team) and needed a 2C-type player as that missing piece, then sure, there's a case to be made. But they're not there yet or particularly close so I'm not sure offer-sheeting anyone makes sense for Montreal right now.

The reason that there aren't many AHL contracts being signed is that we're in May. It's usually when free agency opens up that we see a bunch of those deals. Interesting tidbit about the CBA extension though, I wasn't aware of that (nor is it updated on the PHPA's website; I was just on there on the weekend looking for something).

Worth noting, two of the players in their group rankings are players that were traded away two months ago (Mysak and Legare).

I tried going into the first post as well, doesn't look like there's an option to add a new poll within the thread now.

Vincenz Rohrer will play for Austria at the Worlds. David Reinbacher, somewhat surprisingly, won't due to injury.