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You're Marc Bergevin - What deal do you offer Subban?


dlbalr
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I hate to start another thread discussing Subban and his lack of a contract but I'll at least try and take it a bit of a different route. Place yourselves in Marc Bergevin's shoes, what contract (term/dollars) would you offer him? Do you try and go the short route as the club has done in the past with varying degrees of success (Pacioretty, Price, Eller, Higgins, Komisarek, Desharnais, among others) or lock him up long-term coming off his entry level deal?

Subban's situation is far from unique. Several notable RFA's coming off their rookie contracts remain unsigned as of this point. Here's a good read on the situation: http://www.tsn.ca/nhl/story/?id=404607

As we did last week, we'll pull some of the excerpts and put them into a column on the site either late this week or early next.

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If I'm Bergeron, I'm offering two years at $3M per, or five years at $4M per. If I'm the Subban group, I accept nothing less than $4.75M per on any term four years or more.

Subban could cash in later if he goes with a short-term deal now. Bergeron would probably be comfortable with giving a two year $3.5M per deal, but the Subban camp likely wants $4M+ in that scenario. If he takes the two years now, I don't see why he can't build upon his success and secure a deal in the $5M to $6.5M range once his second contract is out.

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I would offer him around 25 mill for 5 years. If he wants more term or money, I would give him a chance to prove himself with a 2 year deal worth 8 to 9 million. These numbers are fairly high as it is fir his acual performance, but his potential is very good, so I would want a longer deal. 6+ per year would be scary for me right now based on his play. 4 to 5 mill would be about right. In the end, I just want to see him signed. Even if it's for more than that. Price and Subban are the best stars to hit this team since Koivu and Markov

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I think a 4 year deal worth 3 to 4 million a season would be perfect for both sides....although he does try to do a bit to much in Montreals own end once in a while, Subban is (for the most part) still a good young defenseman already and is on verge of getting better and will be worth every penny

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I would just bite the bullet now. 6 years, 30 million. The one thing about PK is that he's never really been injured. He's very durable, and a true competitor. I don't need to rehash all of his skills again, but can you think of one skill this guy doesn't have? He's great in all situations. I think PK is the franchise player, not Carey Price, Pacioretty or Galchenyuk. He is now, and will be in the future, very much the guy out there. His value is a lot lower now then it will be in two years, he might be in the Norris conversation by then, and we will be paying BIG bucks for his services.

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I agree - I think subban has got the greatest potential of our young players and your approach.

I'd even go to a 7 or 8 year deal at $5.5m/yr and front load it it with a $5m to $6m bonus for him to sign. I don't think there is any question in my mind he will be getting Suter/weber type money in two years. With the new CBA, you may not be able to sign him for that kind of term and who knows that $5.5m cap hit may be discounted by 10%.

I would just bite the bullet now. 6 years, 30 million. The one thing about PK is that he's never really been injured. He's very durable, and a true competitor. I don't need to rehash all of his skills again, but can you think of one skill this guy doesn't have? He's great in all situations. I think PK is the franchise player, not Carey Price, Pacioretty or Galchenyuk. He is now, and will be in the future, very much the guy out there. His value is a lot lower now then it will be in two years, he might be in the Norris conversation by then, and we will be paying BIG bucks for his services.

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Edmonton offered big money to eberle and Hall, skinner got a big deal, as did two other players I can't recall.

IMO, Subban has greater potential then all of them (I'm cautious of Hall's injury history to date).

Seems like the rest of the GMs are making their premiere RFAs sweat too with the new CBA hopefully coming sometime... I'm with the 2x $3.5MM and let him earn the long term/big money deal

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Anything slightly less than Price is fine with me, so a deal for $36m ($6.0 for 6 years, or however you load it) seems fair for a young #1 d-man whose upside looks to be quite high and also when compare to other recent signings of young players.

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Edmonton offered big money to eberle and Hall, skinner got a big deal, as did two other players I can't recall.

IMO, Subban has greater potential then all of them (I'm cautious of Hall's injury history to date).

Not sure we want to reference Edmonton as the model for success + Lowe's made some enemies with offer sheets and most likely didn't want to risk it - having said that Eberle is well worth it but agree Halls injury problems make that questionable. Canes threw $7MM at Semin - again maybe not the best franchise to follow but Skinner was an all star as a rookie and is getting paid for what he's done not what he might do.

I don't think MB is 100% convinced PK is a can't miss star - either that or he's really sticking to the 2 year deal post ELC otherwise I think a deal would be done by now

unless he's not finished finding work for his unemployed Hawks alumni

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9 mil for 3 years. 2.75+3+3.25

As others in the thread, I'd consider 5mil/year in a very long contract (8-10 years)

Still, it's a little early in his career to break the bank. 5-6 mil/year is insane when you think about it and what he has accomplished so far! He'll get there one day for sure, but why pay for his potential? He's not an UFA either. If I'm giving 5mil/year, it has to be a very long contract.

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But why should we jerk him around? You could play devil's advocate and say that Price has only won 1 playoff series and Pacioretty is already a concussion risk, with a broken neck to boot. Both of these guys got big paydays. At this point, I really can't find anything wrong with Subban. Having him, Pacioretty and Price locked up for 6 years each finally gives this team an identity that we've missed since the failed 09 rebuild. Unless you count "the smurfs" as a desirable identity. What if he breaks out the next two years, scores 100-130 points, and somehow gets nominated for a Norris? Do we really need to go through a Drew Doughty type holdout situation?

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Let me toss another wrinkle into the discussion - do you try to get him signed before next Saturday (the CBA expiration) or do you take your chances (both sides take some risk here) and see what the new CBA brings?

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I've said a long time ago, take advantage of the current CBA while you can. The owners that are either crying about the CBA (leipold), or are hawks (snider), are taking advantage of the CBA while they can! Why shoudn't we?

We may also only end up having to pay 90 cents on the dollar.

Let me toss another wrinkle into the discussion - do you try to get him signed before next Saturday (the CBA expiration) or do you take your chances (both sides take some risk here) and see what the new CBA brings?

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9 mil for 3 years. 2.75+3+3.25

As others in the thread, I'd consider 5mil/year in a very long contract (8-10 years)

Still, it's a little early in his career to break the bank. 5-6 mil/year is insane when you think about it and what he has accomplished so far! He'll get there one day for sure, but why pay for his potential? He's not an UFA either. If I'm giving 5mil/year, it has to be a very long contract.

I totaly disagree $5+/year is insane? Tell me which Habs draws the most attention from every opposition fan? And why does he get booed every time he touches the puck? Which catagory does that seem to put him in, Pronger-Chara are the ones that instantly come to mind and they are two of the best ever d-men.

But unlike those 2, he isnt a lock for hall of fame quite yet, but worth the risk of a big long contract for sure.

You even get a Bruin blogger making a good case for a Bruin offer sheet and signing P.K., to be part of super d-core, which would be worth the draft picks and salary.

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Salaries are now just turning into an odd curiosity to me.

I don't care what a player makes, just how the player performs. If he doesn't perform, it's up to the GM to do something about it.

Overpay, underpay, undervalue, overvalue, it's really useless to worry about. The LA Kings paid Dustin Penner $4.25M last season to score seven regular season goals. He put up a solid post-season enough for the Kings to re-sign him at a million less despite being mostly a disappointment as a King. Compare how much we'll be paying Pacioretty to score 30 goals to what LA pays Penner to score under 10. Drew Doughty gives the Kings a $7M cap hit per year at 21 years old scoring the same amount of points as Subban while posting a negative plus/minus whereas Subban has a positive plus/minus. Do you think the Kings are kicking themselves about it? Nope. Don't forget paying both Richards and Carter nearly $6M per for under 50 points of production each. Doubt anyone cares when it brings results in the post-season.

That's the divine comedy of the salary cap. It doesn't matter what one player makes, it's what everyone makes and what result you get out of it. Subban could make Doughty money and it wouldn't matter if he didn't put up 60 points with it. How well did the whole team do? That's all that matters in the end. Micro-managing as a fan is for the fans of teams who don't win Cups.

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Salaries are now just turning into an odd curiosity to me.

I don't care what a player makes, just how the player performs. If he doesn't perform, it's up to the GM to do something about it.

Overpay, underpay, undervalue, overvalue, it's really useless to worry about. The LA Kings paid Dustin Penner $4.25M last season to score seven regular season goals. He put up a solid post-season enough for the Kings to re-sign him at a million less despite being mostly a disappointment as a King. Compare how much we'll be paying Pacioretty to score 30 goals to what LA pays Penner to score under 10. Drew Doughty gives the Kings a $7M cap hit per year at 21 years old scoring the same amount of points as Subban while posting a negative plus/minus whereas Subban has a positive plus/minus. Do you think the Kings are kicking themselves about it? Nope. Don't forget paying both Richards and Carter nearly $6M per for under 50 points of production each. Doubt anyone cares when it brings results in the post-season.

That's the divine comedy of the salary cap. It doesn't matter what one player makes, it's what everyone makes and what result you get out of it. Subban could make Doughty money and it wouldn't matter if he didn't put up 60 points with it. How well did the whole team do? That's all that matters in the end. Micro-managing as a fan is for the fans of teams who don't win Cups.

Great post. I totally agree with you. Especially on the first part. I really don"t care what the players sign for or for how long, as long as I like them and they help the team. A few years ago, I was a big Gomez fan with his 50 points. He was a huge part of the team and was critical with how the team broke out of their own zone. If he does it this year, I will be a fan again.

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Salaries are now just turning into an odd curiosity to me.

I don't care what a player makes, just how the player performs. If he doesn't perform, it's up to the GM to do something about it.

Overpay, underpay, undervalue, overvalue, it's really useless to worry about. The LA Kings paid Dustin Penner $4.25M last season to score seven regular season goals. He put up a solid post-season enough for the Kings to re-sign him at a million less despite being mostly a disappointment as a King. Compare how much we'll be paying Pacioretty to score 30 goals to what LA pays Penner to score under 10. Drew Doughty gives the Kings a $7M cap hit per year at 21 years old scoring the same amount of points as Subban while posting a negative plus/minus whereas Subban has a positive plus/minus. Do you think the Kings are kicking themselves about it? Nope. Don't forget paying both Richards and Carter nearly $6M per for under 50 points of production each. Doubt anyone cares when it brings results in the post-season.

That's the divine comedy of the salary cap. It doesn't matter what one player makes, it's what everyone makes and what result you get out of it. Subban could make Doughty money and it wouldn't matter if he didn't put up 60 points with it. How well did the whole team do? That's all that matters in the end. Micro-managing as a fan is for the fans of teams who don't win Cups.

I love this post wish I could favourite it!

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This doesn't confirm what I said about PK being offered a contract by the Red Wings but if he was offered one, here's why he wouldn't sign it. From Sportsnet: http://www.sportsnet.ca/hockey/2012/09/06/pk_subban_hockey_helpers_montreal_canadiens_malcolm_jordan/

In order to understand why contract-free P.K. isn't interested in entertaining offers from other teams, rich teams that may have a better shot at a championship than the Habs, who finished dead last in the East and made a mess of 2011-12, you need to hear him tell it.

"I see greatness in that organization every day when I go to the rink. I see opportunity. I see an opportunity to win, to bring a championship back to that team. That city is so hungry for another Stanley Cup. And when I look around the dressing room, I see a number of guys that can do it, that want to do it. And I think that my influence on that team can bring a Stanley Cup back to that city," P.K. says, his fervor for the topic rounding the back of the net and picking up steam. "Some guys get it early in their careers, some guys get it late in their careers, but I'm going to get it at some point. And I want to do it in that city because that's my favourite team. I grew up watching them. It's a personal thing. When I step on the ice, it's a feeling.

"There have been times when I've been playing games and there's tears almost coming out of my eyes because I want to win so bad there. It's such an emotional city to play in, and I'm an emotional player, so I thrive off that. That's why it's so easy for me to go play 150 per cent every night. That's why I get the response I do from that fan base -- they feel that passion."

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Just hand the guy a blank cheque already!

All kidding aside I would have no problem signing him at something in the range of 10 years @ 5mil.

Actually I would be strongly pursuing it prior to the expiration of the current CBA seeing as how they might be capping the length of contracts.

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This doesn't confirm what I said about PK being offered a contract by the Red Wings but if he was offered one, here's why he wouldn't sign it. From Sportsnet: http://www.sportsnet...malcolm_jordan/

God, PK is just so awesome :habslogo: You could not have conceived of a more satisfying statement to a Habs fan if you'd scripted it.

I also looooove what Machine wrote. It's long been an irritant to me how much weight fans assign to contracts in the cap era and how much hysteria accompanies any perception of 'overpayment.' You'd think it was fans' own money being shilled out to these guys. (Well, in a sense it is - but in such an indirect and purely voluntary sense that it hardly warrants all the high dudgeon). Yes, the really appalling Gomez-style contracts are disastrous for your hockey team. I'm not denying that. But when I think about the endless reams of internet doom-and-glooming that came with moderate and perfectly manageable contracts such as Cole's, or Kaberle's, I just have to conclude that people have lost all perspective. Look at all the commentators criticizing Dallas for 'overpaying' Jagr on a one-year deal (!) that they have absolutely no trouble fitting under the cap and with dough that otherwise would just have sat there. It's as if observers think the teams are competing, not to ice the best team, but to win some nonexistent prize for Best Contract Management.

Way too much heed is paid to trivial questions like whether so and so is overpaid by half a mil. It's just silly.

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