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2021 Habs Free Agents: Who goes? Who stays? What's the price?


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Just now, GHT120 said:

Curious what term you would give Danault ... RNH took a $875K haircut from his previous $6M AAV to get 8 years ... if Habs give Danault $5M in the current marketplace it would IMO have to be short-term (2 yrs, 3 MAX).

 

I was thinking 2 or 3 years, knowing that KK is still developping, and there is Poehling and Evans developping as defensive centres who may take that role in 2 years. 

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Danault is a very difficult player to figure out his value. He is an elite defender, there is no doubt about that. Offensively, he is capable 5-on-5 when playing with two good wingers. But he is not a good enough source of offense to be used on the power play. So you cannot pay him like you would someone who contributes in all situations. How do you price a forward who is invaluable defensively, but is not a primary source of offense?

 

Also, do we even know if he is happy in his role here? Does he view himself as a shutdown center or does he think he deserves more offensive freedom and power play time?  I keep thinking about how Columbus is a team that could be willing to give him that kind of opportunity. They have no depth down the middle and can't attract/keep top-end talent. Could they view Danault as a guy whom they can attract by offering him a role that other teams won't? I can see them picturing him as a 70 point guy playing with Laine and getting power play time. I don't agree that, but it could be very tempting for him.

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You don't let Danault walk. Too many don't see the fact tgat his shut down abilities carried us through to the finals. Period. As important to this run as Price. Do you let Gainey walk because he doesn't produce top line points consistently? 

Hope Perry stays. Armia if possible. 

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1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Well, I do think there are grounds for concern about Gally. It’s not that he is a third-liner (LOL). It’s that he keeps getting hurt and has been unproductive for two straight playoffs. Scoring may go down in the playoffs, but still, it’s reasonably to ask that your 30-goal scorer not to totally evaporate offensively in the crunch. In short, the question around him is not whether he is a “third liner” but whether he has sufficient durability, at this stage of his career, to be a guy we can realistically pencil in as a reliable offensive threat, or whether he will be too broken down to be able to live up to his own talent level. The cap hit compounds the concern. 

Gallagher is definitely not a third liner, but he is showing that his durability is going to be an increasing concern. The reason we all like him, is his no fear reckless abandon style, and not backing down from anyone style of play. Unfortunately that is a big issue with his durability. Even some of his hand issues are caused by the way he blocks shots (some of his hand injuries been freak injuries where he is hit by shots from our own players). By the time the playoffs come around he’s basically broken down.

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14 minutes ago, Dalhabs said:

How good can players like Norlinder, Brooks and Guhle be expected to be next season? 

Norlinder- Sweden

Guhle WHL

Brook AHL

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20 minutes ago, Dalhabs said:

How good can players like Norlinder, Brooks and Guhle be expected to be next season? 

 

I don't think you can count on any of them to play in the NHL next season.  Maybe, as a long shot you get Brook in like February or March, or you get Norlinder after the Swedish season, but these are big MAYBEs.  You don't plan on them for 2021-22, and if you get anything its a bonus.   Harris is another you might look at for March/April ala Caufield

 

Fleury is one who might be ready sooner, but even then, its a 6/7 role at best to start the year. 

 

You're getting more at Forward where Caufield is now a full timer, and I think Poehling might take a role next year.  He could be a winger replacement for Armia. 

Perry - Evans - Poehling type of deal. 

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1 hour ago, johnnyhasbeen said:

... Do you let Gainey walk because he doesn't produce top line points consistently? ...

If there was a salary cap back in those days Pollock would have had to make decisions that would make what Brisebois must do for the TBL this summer simple ... how in the world could the Habs have fit 12 HoF players under a cap?  Gainey might well have been a cap casualty.

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1 hour ago, johnnyhasbeen said:

You don't let Danault walk. Too many don't see the fact that his shut down abilities carried us through to the finals. Period. As important to this run as Price. Do you let Gainey walk because he doesn't produce top line points consistently? 

Hope Perry stays. Armia if possible. 

 

It's not that simple and the comparison to Gainey doesn't track. Gainey played for peanuts in an era without a cap or unrestricted free agency. He was also never asked to be a primary source of offense, so his offensive production was a non-issue. If you were to suddenly introduce unrestricted free agency and a cap in the late 70's, Gainey probably would have been among the first casualties unless he were to take a team friendly contract.

 

Danault, however, has been asked to provide primary scoring. He has played on the top offensive line for most of the last three seasons, until the emergence of the Suzuki line. If he wants to be paid as a primary source of offense, then his offensive production matters a lot.

 

He proved during these playoffs that he excels in a shutdown role, but that playing that role seriously impacts offensive production. If he wants to be paid as a shutdown center AND as a primary scoring option, that isn't going to work. 

 

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2 hours ago, Fanpuck33 said:

Danault is a very difficult player to figure out his value. He is an elite defender, there is no doubt about that. Offensively, he is capable 5-on-5 when playing with two good wingers. But he is not a good enough source of offense to be used on the power play. So you cannot pay him like you would someone who contributes in all situations. How do you price a forward who is invaluable defensively, but is not a primary source of offense?

 

Also, do we even know if he is happy in his role here? Does he view himself as a shutdown center or does he think he deserves more offensive freedom and power play time?  I keep thinking about how Columbus is a team that could be willing to give him that kind of opportunity. They have no depth down the middle and can't attract/keep top-end talent. Could they view Danault as a guy whom they can attract by offering him a role that other teams won't? I can see them picturing him as a 70 point guy playing with Laine and getting power play time. I don't agree that, but it could be very tempting for him.


Great analysis of Danault and the situation. 
 

I think Habs fans see Danault just waiting for the Montreal offer so that he can sign. 
 

We are likely going to wait till after expansion draft so that we don’t need to protect him. Does Columbus or other team offer 6 million or more?

 

Would we match and pay that much? I hope if that does happen we let him go. Make no mistake, I want Danault here but we already have our share of bad contracts 

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5 hours ago, Commandant said:

Predictions

 

UFAs:

Corey Perry (2 years 1.5 million, the Simmonds contract)

I went and looked up Simmonds' contract ($0.9M AAV, close enough) and I was surprised to see that he actually has an NTC. I wouldn't have an issue with giving one to Perry as well.

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On 7/8/2021 at 7:49 PM, Trizzak said:

UFAs:

 

Corey Perry - 2 yrs up to $2m

Joel Armia  - $2.5m/3 yrs or walk

Philip Danault $4m/4 yrs or walk - someone will probably give him stupid money

Eric Staal - good riddance - disappointed you took KK’s spot as it is

Tomas Tatar - good-bye, thou  I will mis saying TAAAATAAAR! when you score, buy the goals had dried up this year 

John Merrill $800k/1yr or goodbye 

Erik Gustafsson - goodbye - you made 10x what your are worth already in your career,.

 

Michael  Frolik - see yah, but no taxi squad and even when there was, really weren’t a real option 

Jordan Weal - goodbye have fun in Siberia - are an AHLer who played way too many NHL games 

Alex Belzile - 1 yr AHL depth 

Gustav Olafsson - goodbye

Charlie Lindgren - see yah, pretty sad you were considers an option

 

RFAs (* arbitration eligible):

 

Artturi Lehkonen* - $2.3m/4yrs

Jesperi Kotkaniemi $2.2m/1yr show me

 

Joseph Blandisi* - indifferent 

Michael Pezzetta - indifferent 

Ryan Poehling - 1 or 2 yr

Jacob Lucchini* - indifferent 

Otto Leskinen* (signed in Europe)

Cale Fleury - still hope in him being a depth dmen

Michael McNiven* - back, behind Premieau 

 

I will keep this list updated as signings happen.

Edited in my perspective in quote of the threads first post 

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Lehkonen's QO is 2.4 million. He might want long term stability at a lower cost, but he could also just keep accepting his QO until he hits unrestricted free agency. He probably wouldn't get more on the open market til the cap starts rising again anyway.

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Here is what I mashed together:

 

UFAs:

Corey Perry (re-signs, $1M)

Joel Armia  (re-signs, or similar player signed, $3M)

Philip Danault (re-signs, $5.5M)

Eric Staal (walks)

Tomas Tatar (walks)

John Merrill (walks)

Erik Gustafsson (re-signs, $2.5M (heavy on bonuses)

 

Michael  Frolik (walks)

Jordan Weal (signed in KHL)

Alex Belzile (AHL contract)

Gustav Olafsson (walks)

Charlie Lindgren (walks, or ECHL/AHL contract if he accepts)

 

RFAs (* arbitration eligible):

 

Artturi Lehkonen* (walks)

Jesperi Kotkaniemi(re-signs, $3M)

 

Joseph Blandisi* (AHL or walks)

Michael Pezzetta (walks)

Ryan Poehling (resigned, similar contract to now)

Jacob Lucchini* (AHL or walks)

Otto Leskinen* (signed in Europe)

Cale Fleury (NHL league minimum)

Michael McNiven* (AHL/NHL two-way , similar to now)

 

I am still going with Weber being exposed and going unclaimed; and for Gustafson playing on Weber's left until Romanov or another LD wins that spot (With Romanov it may not take long)

Edited by alfredoh2009
edited Gustafsson's prediction of potantial contract
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9 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

Here is what I mashed together:

 

UFAs:

Corey Perry (re-signs, $1M)

Joel Armia  (re-signs, or similar player signed, $3M)

Philip Danault (re-signs, $5.5M)

Eric Staal (walks)

Tomas Tatar (walks)

John Merrill (walks)

Erik Gustafsson (re-signs, $2.5M (heavy on bonuses)

 

Michael  Frolik (walks)

Jordan Weal (signed in KHL)

Alex Belzile (AHL contract)

Gustav Olafsson (walks)

Charlie Lindgren (walks, or ECHL/AHL contract if he accepts)

 

RFAs (* arbitration eligible):

 

Artturi Lehkonen* (walks)

Jesperi Kotkaniemi(re-signs, $3M)

 

Joseph Blandisi* (AHL or walks)

Michael Pezzetta (walks)

Ryan Poehling (resigned, similar contract to now)

Jacob Lucchini* (AHL or walks)

Otto Leskinen* (signed in Europe)

Cale Fleury (NHL league minimum)

Michael McNiven* (AHL/NHL two-way , similar to now)

 

I am still going with Weber being exposed and going unclaimed; and for Gustafson playing on Weber's left until Romanov or another LD wins that spot (With Romanov it may not take long)


You are letting Lehkonen walk or is he your Kraken pick?

 

Without doing the math I think you are over the cap by roughly ~ 2 million 

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I though I was under by $2M

 

I’ll do the math later

 

Lehks is an RFA, so he does not walk like an UFA (my mistake) but is traded. 
He is an energy bottom 6 winger with limited production. At $2.5-$3M he will be overpaid 

He is valuable on any team, but a dime a dozen 

Out of Lehks and Armia, a player like Armia has more value despite being more injury prone 

 

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2 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I though I was under by $2M

 

I’ll do the math later

 

Lehks is an RFA, so he does not walk like an UFA (my mistake) but is traded. 
He is an energy bottom 6 winger with limited production. At $2.5-$3M he will be overpaid 

He is valuable on any team, but a dime a dozen 

Out of Lehks and Armia, a player like Armia has more value despite being more injury prone 

 


Lehkonen is a tough case because as you point out he is a bottom 6 with limited offence and there are many of those around. He is such a relentless beast and is so good at his role. 
 

You are right about the cap I think. I was including Lehkonen’s salary in my quick calculation so you are roughly 2 million under 

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1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

Erik Gustafsson (re-signs, $2.5M (heavy on bonuses)

 

He was getting healthy scratched by a non-playoff team and only played in the playoffs because of Montreal's complete lack of LD who can move the puck.  Why would anyone give him that much money, even on an incentive laden contract? I will be shocked if he gets more than a million from anyone, and expect expect league minimum.

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35 minutes ago, Fanpuck33 said:

 

He was getting healthy scratched by a non-playoff team and only played in the playoffs because of Montreal's complete lack of LD who can move the puck.  Why would anyone give him that much money, even on an incentive laden contract? I will be shocked if he gets more than a million from anyone, and expect expect league minimum.

 

I know it sounds crazy based on recent history and how his play was erratic sometimes in the playoffs. but IMHO, he is one the cheapest point producing LD UFAs in the market and he will be sought after.

If Mike Reilly (BOS) was making $1.5M and Gustafsson was making $3M, I put Gustafsson's new contract in between those numbers with the idea of letting him play with Weber for the season.

 

There are not that many other LDs with similar skill set on the UFA market

 

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1 hour ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:


Lehkonen is a tough case because as you point out he is a bottom 6 with limited offence and there are many of those around. He is such a relentless beast and is so good at his role. 
 

You are right about the cap I think. I was including Lehkonen’s salary in my quick calculation so you are roughly 2 million under 

I wonder how well Lavallagher (Harvey-Pinard), or Poehling or even Belzile may fill Lehk's role? with similar offensive production

 

Vejdemo has been underwhelming, but maybe he could fill that role at a decent level

 

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You can't do bonuses with Gustafsson, he is not 35+ and doesn't qualify for the injury rules. 

 

also playing him with Weber, where you will be asking him to play a minimum of 18 minutes a night?  Thats a disastrous decision.

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2 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

... Erik Gustafsson (re-signs, $2.5M (heavy on bonuses) ...

Bonuses are only allowed on:

 

Performance Bonuses shall be allowable under this Agreement only for:

(i) Players with Entry Level SPCs under Article 9 of this Agreement;

(ii) Players aged 35 or older as of June 30 prior to the League Year in which the SPC is to be effective, who have signed a one-year SPC for that League Year; and

(iii) Players who are "400-plus game Players" for pension purposes, and who: (i) in the last year of their most recent SPC, spent 100 days or more on the Injured Reserve List; and (ii) have signed a one-year SPC for the current or upcoming League Year.

 

Don't believe Gustafsson meets any of those criteria ... no bonuses allowed.

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15 minutes ago, Commandant said:

You can't do bonuses with Gustafsson, he is not 35+ and doesn't qualify for the injury rules. 

 

also playing him with Weber, where you will be asking him to play a minimum of 18 minutes a night?  Thats a disastrous decision.

I assume that criticism, for all I know I may be wrong.. but heck, that is the best I can do

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3 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

 

I know it sounds crazy based on recent history and how his play was erratic sometimes in the playoffs. but IMHO, he is one the cheapest point producing LD UFAs in the market and he will be sought after.

If Mike Reilly (BOS) was making $1.5M and Gustafsson was making $3M, I put Gustafsson's new contract in between those numbers with the idea of letting him play with Weber for the season.

 

There are not that many other LDs with similar skill set on the UFA market

 

There is no way if want Gustafson, let alone having him paired with Weber.  We NEED a better puck mover, who is actually capable of playing defence. 

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