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NHL Draft Lottery


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The Draft Lottery will be held Tuesday My 10 at 7:00pm EDT.

 

It seems we might want to discuss this but I don't see any discussion focused on the drawing

 

The Habs have a 25.55 chance to pick first overall, 18.8% chance to choose second.  In the remaining 55.7% of the time we will pick 3rd.

 

Our odds to have our ball drawn as the winners is 18.5%.

 

The best statement of the rules I can find says:

"Teams are only allowed to improve their positioning via the Lottery twice in a five year period (beginning with the 2022 Lottery)."

This would mean that the outcome this year will not affect us in the future lotteries since there is no way we can improve our position.

 

 

 

 

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This is from last year's announcement from the NHL:

 

-- Teams cannot win the lottery more than twice in a five-year period. Wins in the lottery prior to 2022 will not be counted toward this total.

 

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-draft-lottery-changes-announced-for-2021/c-322838154

 

That tells me that yes, the outcome this year would count towards future lotteries.

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How would they implement that in practice, after this year? Anyone who has won (since 2022) would be excluded from the drawing for the top lottery spot, and only participate in the second drawing? I suppose they have a clear procedure set out but they don't publish it.

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29 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

...  -- Teams cannot win the lottery more than twice in a five-year period. Wins in the lottery prior to 2022 will not be counted toward this total ...

 

13 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

How would they implement that in practice, after this year? Anyone who has won (since 2022) would be excluded from the drawing for the top lottery spot, and only participate in the second drawing? I suppose they have a clear procedure set out but they don't publish it.

 

From a Habs perspective the good news is that they could win this year ... they would only then be barred from winning it for the three subsequent drafts.

 

They also need to define "win the lottery" ... does it mean drafting first overall or winning one of the two lottery drawings ... they are not the same thing as the 12th-16th place teams can win a lottery draw and move up 10 spaces but not draft first ... luckily the league has at least until the 2024 draft to work out the details.

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25 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

How would they implement that in practice, after this year? Anyone who has won (since 2022) would be excluded from the drawing for the top lottery spot, and only participate in the second drawing? I suppose they have a clear procedure set out but they don't publish it.

 

They wouldn't be excluded from the drawing.  Instead, if that team won, they'd re-draw.  That way, the percentages would remain the same.  My understanding is that it's not just for the first lottery either but rather both of them that the rule applies to.

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On the other hand … if Vegas and Vancouver (for example) win the lottery this year, the Habs would still pick first — and yet it would not count as a win.

 

Maybe. Since the league hasn’t published the actual rules, we really don’t know for certain.

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Yes, I tried to find out what the exact rule is.  What does it mean to "win" the lottery.  I found the site

https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds

This is the only site I found which described the lottery rules in precise language.  I quoted the 5th rule in my opening post.

I would find it strange that this site would formulate the rules in such a precise way without accessing the rules from the NHL. 

I may be wrong but I suspect this is the correct rule .

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5 hours ago, dlbalr said:

This is from last year's announcement from the NHL:

 

-- Teams cannot win the lottery more than twice in a five-year period. Wins in the lottery prior to 2022 will not be counted toward this total.

 

https://www.nhl.com/news/nhl-draft-lottery-changes-announced-for-2021/c-322838154

 

That tells me that yes, the outcome this year would count towards future lotteries.

Okay I found an article from the Hockey news from 1 year ago (when the change was made I believe). 

https://thehockeynews.com/news/which-recent-nhl-draft-lottery-outcomes-led-to-the-new-rule-changes

 

It includes the following stipulation (written before Seattle joined the league):

It’s important to note that the “two in five years” rule only applies to moving up in the lottery. A last-overall team doesn’t “move up” to pick first, so you can win the lottery with a 31st-place finish unlimited times. Same goes for a 30th-place team winning the No. 2 pick in the lottery.

 

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Thanks.  Yes I was wondering what the exact rule was.  The hockey news article includes what looks like precise rules from the NHL.  I doubt this will affect us, but its really good to not have to worry about winning Tuesday coming back to bite us in a few years.

 

 

 

 

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Alright, using that THN article as a reference date, I was able to look through the NHL's Media Site for the press release.  The direct link wasn't made public so I can't link it but I don't think the attachment that also has the release is blocked so this should be the exact wording which does match the citation from the THN piece.

 

https://media.nhl.com/site/vasset/public/attachments/2021/03/14767/DraftLotteryMarch23.pdf

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17 hours ago, Peter Puck said:

Okay I found an article from the Hockey news from 1 year ago (when the change was made I believe). 

https://thehockeynews.com/news/which-recent-nhl-draft-lottery-outcomes-led-to-the-new-rule-changes

 

It includes the following stipulation (written before Seattle joined the league):

It’s important to note that the “two in five years” rule only applies to moving up in the lottery. A last-overall team doesn’t “move up” to pick first, so you can win the lottery with a 31st-place finish unlimited times. Same goes for a 30th-place team winning the No. 2 pick in the lottery.

 

 

The difference is this.

 

There is an 18.5% the habs win the lottery and pick first as a result.  Thats considered a lottery win and counts towards two in five years.

 

There is also a chance the Habs pick first due to one of the teams ranked 12-16 win.  They can only move up ten spots so habs would get #1. This doesnt count as a win towards the two in 5 years for the Habs.

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2 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

The difference is this.

 

There is an 18.5% the habs win the lottery and pick first as a result.  Thats considered a lottery win and counts towards two in five years.

 

There is also a chance the Habs pick first due to one of the teams ranked 12-16 win.  They can only move up ten spots so habs would get #1. This doesnt count as a win towards the two in 5 years for the Habs.

No if the Habs ball is drawn first they win the lottery but their draft pick isn't advanced - they still pick first.  So it doesn't count toward the 2 in 5 limit.

 

  There is no way that the Habs pick can be improved in the lottery and so the 2 in 5 rule doesn't apply to the Habs pick this year.

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This is the rule:

 

No single team will be able to advance in the Draft order by reason of winning a Lottery Draw more than two (2) times in any five (5) year period. This limitation will not affect a Club’s ability to retain its presumptive Draft position in any Draft Lottery, nor would it preclude the possibility of the Club moving down in Draft Order to the extent other Clubs advance by reason of winning the Lottery Draws.

 

Montreal isn't advancing their position and the second sentence says the rule does not affect its ability to retain its presumptive draft position which, for Montreal, would be 1st since they finished last.

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1 hour ago, Neech said:

Ok so if we win this lottery, because we were last overall we can still win 2 out of the next 5 lotteries?

Yes — if we are very, very lucky. 🙂

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1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

So in other words, no. 😉

 

I'm gonna hold out for three straight #1 overall picks, followed by 20 years of contention and a half dozen Cups.

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1 hour ago, Neech said:

 

I'm gonna hold out for three straight #1 overall picks, followed by 20 years of contention and a half dozen Cups.

I am good with a 1st & 26th this year, a top ten & mid 1st next season and a bottom 10 the following one.:tumbleweed:

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This lottery will have massive implications for the Habs future. Basically a coin flip whether they will be able to draft their future 1a/1b center, or be stuck in purgatory yet again at number 3 in a crap shoot draft. Come on one time let's get lucky

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3 hours ago, illWill said:

This lottery will have massive implications for the Habs future. Basically a coin flip whether they will be able to draft their future 1a/1b center, or be stuck in purgatory yet again at number 3 in a crap shoot draft. Come on one time let's get lucky

 

The best player in the draft could easily be at #3. Maybe Wright is a solid top-6 C but Nemec or Jiricek is a superstar D-man.

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1 hour ago, Neech said:

 

The best player in the draft could easily be at #3. Maybe Wright is a solid top-6 C but Nemec or Jiricek is a superstar D-man.

 

That's all great and all, but what are the chances that we draft correctly and choose that superstar

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