2023 NHL Entry Draft

[DON]

1 hour ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Given the other contracts, and their cap situation, makes signing Carter for two years even a dumber move. They are basically paying Carter 3.5 times what the Lightning are paying Perry for the same production.  With the age of their team they should have been liking to get  get cheaper younger players not resign and overpay for guys well past their best before dates.

Perry aint top 5 in the NHL on faceoffs and even better @ 68% on the PP like Carter is.

Not that either old guy is much value, but also why neither is paid much.

 

 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

28 minutes ago, DON said:

Perry aint top 5 in the NHL on faceoffs and even better @ 68% on the PP like Carter is.

Not that either old guy is much value, but also why neither is paid much.

 

 

I secretly dream that Crosby will be that kind of person for us at some point.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

We have a little more certainty with the Hab's first round picks. 

 

With their own pick it will be 1,2,5,6 or 7 (Let's dream, come on #1)

 

With Florida's pick it will be 17 or from 29-32. 

 

I can't believe I will be cheering for Boston in the 1st round of the playoffs. 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[DON]

 

Zach Benson

" His intelligence, skill, and work ethic are praised by scouts."

consistent effort i heard was questioned for Will Smith/Cristall, whereas it is a strength for Benson. Seems similar to  Cooley with same size issue for some GMs i guess, as dlbalr already mentioned Habs may (do?) favour largeness?

[Neech]

#17 is a nice pick, lots of talent still on the board there. We were teased with the chance of the 12-15 range, but we would have been ecstatic before the season with #17 from the reigning President's Trophy winners.

 

I hope we hold on to it and get two studs from this draft.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

On 4/12/2023 at 3:43 PM, Prime Minister Koivu said:

I secretly dream that Crosby will be that kind of person for us at some point.

 

There is a universe where his contract expires (2025) and he joins the Habs on a moderate deal because we are emerging contenders who could use a legendary leader. I don’t say it’s likely to happen, just that it’s not a completely crazy scenario, given that he always wanted to wear the CH. 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

29 minutes ago, Neech said:

#17 is a nice pick, lots of talent still on the board there. We were teased with the chance of the 12-15 range, but we would have been ecstatic before the season with #17 from the reigning President's Trophy winners.

 

I hope we hold on to it and get two studs from this draft.

 

Agree 100%.  If we had known when we traded Chiarot that the pick would be #17 overall in a good draft year we would have been very happy. Having said that we need to hope Florida doesn't surprise in the playoffs. 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

15 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

There is a universe where his contract expires (2025) and he joins the Habs on a moderate deal because we are emerging contenders who could use a legendary leader. I don’t say it’s likely to happen, just that it’s not a completely crazy scenario, given that he always wanted to wear the CH. 

 

Not a crazy scenario at all. You have to think that the Penguins will be nowhere close to being contenders in a couple years and they will be looking to move veterans. 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

15 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

There is a universe where his contract expires (2025) and he joins the Habs on a moderate deal because we are emerging contenders who could use a legendary leader. I don’t say it’s likely to happen, just that it’s not a completely crazy scenario, given that he always wanted to wear the CH. 

 

This is exactly what I’m thinking. 
 

We all know Crosby grew up a Hab fan and he would be a great vet to play PP and 4th line minutes. 
 

His contract expiring seems to coincide with our playoff window perfectly. 

[DON]

1 hour ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

Not a crazy scenario at all. You have to think that the Penguins will be nowhere close to being contenders in a couple years and they will be looking to move veterans. 

Hope not, i fully expect he retires as a Penquin, same as Ovi with the Caps.

And he likely will lead Pitt next year and be back in the playoffs again.

[tomh009]

2 hours ago, DON said:

Hope not, i fully expect he retires as a Penquin, same as Ovi with the Caps.

And Toews and Kane with Chicago? Oh, wait ...

[DON]

42 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

And Toews and Kane with Chicago? Oh, wait ...

Never a fan of either nor Chicago.

[GHT120]

5 hours ago, Neech said:

... I hope we hold on to it and get two studs from this draft.

 

I have read/heard conflicting opinions on the depth of the draft beyond to the Top 1-4 and then Top 5-15 (depending on the pundit) ... so the Habs may need (a) friendly lottery balls and (b) some poor choices by other teams to find two studs.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

19 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

I have read/heard conflicting opinions on the depth of the draft beyond to the Top 1-4 and then Top 5-15 (depending on the pundit) ... so the Habs may need (a) friendly lottery balls and (b) some poor choices by other teams to find two studs.

 

I keep thinking back to the 2003 draft when Anaheim got Getzlaff at 19 and Perry at 28 so 2 studs is certainly possible.  That was a huge draft for them.  You need your scouting staff to bring their "A" game and a little luck. 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

10 hours ago, DON said:

 

Zach Benson

" His intelligence, skill, and work ethic are praised by scouts."

consistent effort i heard was questioned for Will Smith/Cristall, whereas it is a strength for Benson. Seems similar to  Cooley with same size issue for some GMs i guess, as dlbalr already mentioned Habs may (do?) favour largeness?

 

I have read many mock drafts where Smith and Benson are 5 and 6 so you would think that Benson is a guy the Habs have scouted thoroughly.  The reports I read love Benson's work ethic. 

[Commandant]

2 hours ago, tomh009 said:

And Toews and Kane with Chicago? Oh, wait ...

 

F them.  They knew about Kyle Beach and said nothing.

[DON]

On 4/14/2023 at 5:22 PM, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

I have read many mock drafts where Smith and Benson are 5 and 6 so you would think that Benson is a guy the Habs have scouted thoroughly.  The reports I read love Benson's work ethic. 

Simply based on one ranking with current habpicks, ignoring everything else;

Benson & Dvorsky seem like would be nice additions, Benson maybe too small, so Will Smith seem smore likely and add another Slovac forward, if dont trade away pick for a young RH d-man.

 

 

 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

On 4/14/2023 at 4:35 PM, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

I keep thinking back to the 2003 draft when Anaheim got Getzlaff at 19 and Perry at 28 so 2 studs is certainly possible.  That was a huge draft for them.  You need your scouting staff to bring their "A" game and a little luck. 

 

While it’s understandable, many hockey fans - usually Tankists - seem to have fallen for the delusion that once you’re outside the top-5 or top-10, you can forget about drafting stud players. There are tons of players demonstrating otherwise, from Bergeron to Pasternak to Subban to Caufield to Suzuki and on and on down the line. As you say, though, you need superior scouting and development and yes, luck, to get results like more than once every blue moon. (The inverse of this phenomenon is wasting top-end picks on dogs, which, contrary to the religious beliefs of the more draft-obsessed fans, also happens).

 

None of this is to deny that the odds of hitting a jackpot improve the higher your draft ranking. But teams do hit the jackpot outside the top-5 or top-10 often enough that it should be an organizational goal for drafting and development.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

21 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

None of this is to deny that the odds of hitting a jackpot improve the higher your draft ranking. But teams do hit the jackpot outside the top-5 or top-10 often enough that it should be an organizational goal for drafting and development.

 

Exactly.  The Bruins are a prime example. They are where they are because they drafted Pastrnak at 25, Bergeron at 45 and Marchand at 71.  Sure they had some flops but they I don't think any team has hit more home runs outside the top 10 or top 20 then they have.  They are obviously doing something right.

 

I would rather have the higher pick (ie #1 this year please) but as many have noted, it doesn't guarantee anything, just improves your odds. 

[tomh009]

We have some promising prospects that were not top 10, either:

• Caufield 15th
• Guhle 16th
• Beck 33rd
• Hutson 62nd

No, not ranking these at Pastrnak's level, at least not yet. This is just to point out that the Habs, too, have made some decent picks lately.

[GHT120]

2 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

While it’s understandable, many hockey fans - usually Tankists - seem to have fallen for the delusion that once you’re outside the top-5 or top-10, you can forget about drafting stud players ... 

None of this is to deny that the odds of hitting a jackpot improve the higher your draft ranking. But teams do hit the jackpot outside the top-5 or top-10 often enough that it should be an organizational goal for drafting and development.

 

The INSULT followed by the logic ... nobody with a brain suggests that impact players cannot be found after the 5-10th picks ... but once a team is not in playoff contention it might as well give itself the best OPPORTUNITY to draft an impact player ... which means as high as possible, so that you don't have to depend as much on other teams passing on that player(s) as on your scouts and management finding them.

[Peter Puck]

18 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

Exactly.  The Bruins are a prime example. They are where they are because they drafted Pastrnak at 25, Bergeron at 45 and Marchand at 71.  Sure they had some flops but they I don't think any team has hit more home runs outside the top 10 or top 20 then they have.  They are obviously doing something right.

 

I would rather have the higher pick (ie #1 this year please) but as many have noted, it doesn't guarantee anything, just improves your odds. 

This is a mistake.  It isn't obvious that a team with an unusually large number of hits is doing something right.  The randomness of the draft means that some teams will have more hits than expected and some will have less.  Whether the Bruins are an outlier due to some strategy they use or due to pure randomness is unclear. 

 

  Assuming it is due to some special sauce the Bruins use can lead to bad mistakes if it is really due to random fluctuations.

[tomh009]

3 hours ago, Peter Puck said:

This is a mistake.  It isn't obvious that a team with an unusually large number of hits is doing something right.  The randomness of the draft means that some teams will have more hits than expected and some will have less.  Whether the Bruins are an outlier due to some strategy they use or due to pure randomness is unclear. 

 

Assuming it is due to some special sauce the Bruins use can lead to bad mistakes if it is really due to random fluctuations.

One or two finds is likely random variation. But if a team is consistently able to find NHL players in the later rounds, it's less likely to be just random variation.

[tomh009]

59 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

One or two finds is likely random variation. But if a team is consistently able to find NHL players in the later rounds, it's less likely to be just random variation.

For the 2009-2018 drafts (ignoring later ones as may be too early to judge), 243 players picked in second round or later have played at least 200 games. That's an average of about eight successful picks per team.

• Anaheim, Carolina, LA and Pittsburgh all had 12 picks with over 200 games
• Colorado had 3, NYR and Vancouver only 4

I think these differences are big enough to be statistically significant.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

5 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

For the 2009-2018 drafts (ignoring later ones as may be too early to judge), 243 players picked in second round or later have played at least 200 games. That's an average of about eight successful picks per team.

• Anaheim, Carolina, LA and Pittsburgh all had 12 picks with over 200 games
• Colorado had 2, NYR and Vancouver only 4

I think these differences are big enough to be statistically significant.

 

Vancouver - LOL. That is their problem right there: bona-ride, elite all-star talent at key positions, and ZERO depth whatsoever. They are a case study in striking out outside the first round.