Habs Pre-season 2023-2024

[dlbalr]

1 hour ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

I’m not sure why the Habs are projected to be roughly the same as last season. 
 

We had an enormous amount of injuries last season. Surely we don’t project to have the same amount this season. 
 

Caufield was on pace for 45 goals last season and if he stays healthy he should easily hit that number. 
 

Gallagher is surely in for a much better season! Unless he is a washed up injury casualty. 
 

Do we expect that Dach hasn’t grown?

 

A full year of Monahan (hopefully)

 

Is the addition of Newhook not a big help over last season?

 

A full year of Matheson (hopefully) plus a year of seasoning for the rookies. 
 

Surely we are better than we were last season. 

 

A few reasons stick out:

 

1) Look at the rest of the division.  Who could Montreal realistically finish ahead of?  Maybe Detroit but I have them a peg or two ahead of the Habs.  If you're finishing last in a division, you're going to be near the bottom five of the league no matter what any individual improvements are made.

 

2) While it's possible (I'd say a good chance) that the younger players have room for improvement, there's an expectation that Montembeault will be the version that finished last season (.891 SV% in the last three months), not the first half version based on his history.  If that happens, that will offset some of those offensive improvements.

 

3) Newhook is an upgrade on Drouin, sure, but not to the tune of several more wins on his own.

 

And I wouldn't have much optimism about Gallagher - I think his days of being an NHL-calibre player are coming to an end; he's not magically turning things around.

[GHT120]

 

Looking at CapFriendly, it seems somewhat obvious to me that a trade(s) must be in the works.

 

The above shows an opening night lineup with 13 forwards, 7 defence and 3 goalies ... but a minimum 12-6-2 game roster as each category has one injured player who cannot suit up ... and is still almost $1.3M over the cap.

 

They could tinker by not demoting Lindstom (if he clears waivers) and sending down Barron, but that only saves $25K and means Barron's cap hit becomes $1.2M if he is later recalled (thank you @dlbair for the explanation).

 

*** IF *** HuGo want to start the season under the cap without using LTIR then someone needs to be moved out ... Armia and Pearson seem the likely candidates, both would undoubtedly require a sweetener to be included ... as a pending UFA, I expect Pearson would be somewhat easier to trade and the sweetener would probably not be as severe ... once Pezette/Ylonen slides in to the roster spot they even end up with about a $1M in cap space ... they MIGHT also take back a player/contract in the deal ... if it is a useful player the overal return is lessened, if it ias a "bad" contract the overall return increases. 

Evans would be easy to move but it seems short-sighted to trade him just to get under the cap ... trading Anderson would resolve the cap issue AND bring back some useful asset(s) but I wouldn't expect that is even a remote possibility.

 

*** IF *** HuGo have decided that they are stuck with LTIR then they need to take on a couple of bad salaries to make use of the (up to) $10.5M that Price on LTIR provides (No guarantee that Dvorak and Wideman are out all season so no reason to start them on LTIR unless necessary).

 

 

 

 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Boy, given the way the team is now structured, Dvorak is a huge waste of money.

[alfredoh2009]

47 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

[...]

Looking at CapFriendly, it seems somewhat obvious to me that a trade(s) must be in the works.

 

The above shows an opening night lineup with 13 forwards, 7 defence and 3 goalies ... but a minimum 12-6-2 game roster as each category has one injured player who cannot suit up ... and is still almost $1.3M over the cap.

[...]

 

from a cap management perspective, not merit or talent.

there are 11 forwards, 11 defensemen and 3 goaltenders still at camp:

https://www.lapresse.ca/sports/hockey/2023-10-01/le-canadien/qui-reste-t-il-au-camp.php?sharing=true

 

3 goalies that are waiver eligible:

Allen, Montembeault, Primeau

 

11 defensement- 2 Injured (Wideman, Matheson) - 3 AHL-waiver-excempt:

NHLers: Savard, Kovacevic

Waiver eligible: Lindström,

Waiver excempt: Barron, Guhle, Harris, Xhekaj

AHLers: Mailloux, Norlinder
 

Lindstrom seems to be in Wideman's spot until he is back from IR. The D seem set (in bold)

 

That leaves 15 remaining forwards vying for 13 spots (Dvorak  on IR):

Top-6:

Anderson, Caufield, Dach, Suzuki, Newhook, Monahan

 

Bottom 6 NHLers:

Evans, Armia, Gallagher, Pearson

 

 

That leaves 3 spots for these 5 players:

Waiver eligible:

Pezzetta, Ylönen

 

Waiver excempt:

Harvey-Pinard, Slafkovsky, Heineman
 

So, out of the remaining forwards, the cuts will depend on the organizations development plan more than anything else.

 

[GHT120]

13 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

... So, out of the remaining forwards, the cuts will depend on the organizations development plan more than anything else.

 

 

Respectfully, unless they've decided to LTIR Price before the season to make it under the cap ... cuts will be primarily cap dependent to set the roster for that first game ... for example, as @dlbalr pointed out (somewhere), demoting Slafkovsky before the season means if he is brought back up his caphit goes from $950K ro $4.45M because his performance bonuses have to be counted in ... once that first game is played the Habs can LTIR Price and then make roster decisions based on who they want playing where. 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

2 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

we weren’t florida missing a Barkov, ekblad or Bennett for stretches. We were missing slugs.
 

 

I think that is just a little bit of an exaggeration.  Caulfield, Monahan, Dach, Guhle, Matheson, Xhekaj all missed significant stretches of time. I wouldn't call those guys slugs. 

[hab29RETIRED]

1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Boy, given the way the team is now structured, Dvorak is a huge waste of money.

That deal for him was an obvious mistake the moment it rad made. We gave up a 1st and a 3rd fir this bum. Is he even worth a 3rd now?

[hab29RETIRED]

1 minute ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

I think that is just a little bit of an exaggeration.  Caulfield, Monahan, Dach, Guhle, Matheson, Xhekaj all missed significant stretches of time. I wouldn't call those guys slugs. 

Only re impact player is Caufield. Monohan has been hurt every year for 4 years. It was to be expected. Matheson was a depth dman everywhere he has played. If you think the reason we did so bad last year was because rookies like Guhke, wifi, and players still trying to make a name for themselves were hurt, or that any of these players LAST YEAR or even this year are as valuable as Barkov, Ekblad or even Bennett, than I don’t know what to say.

 

Without some young players over achieving against expectations, we would have been an even worse team than 5th last. Had some of our vets like Edmondson, Savard, Gallagher, Hoffman, Armia and Drouin not missed so many games last year, I doubt the young D, or guys like RHP would have gotten a chance and we probably would have been a worse team than we were.

 

injuries were not the reason we were so bad last year, lack of talent and a bunch of washed up players was.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

5 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Only re impact player is Caufield. Monohan has been hurt every year for 4 years. It was to be expected. Matheson was a depth dman everywhere he has played. If you think the reason we did so bad last year was because rookies like Guhke, wifi, and players still trying to make a name for themselves were hurt, or that any of these players LAST YEAR or even this year are as valuable as Barkov, Ekblad or even Bennett, than I don’t know what to say.

 

Without some young players over achieving against expectations, we would have been an even worse team than 5th last. Had some of our vets like Edmondson, Savard, Gallagher, Hoffman, Armia and Drouin not missed so many games last year, I doubt the young D, or guys like RHP would have gotten a chance and we probably would have been a worse team than we were.

 

injuries were not the reason we were so bad last year, lack of talent and a bunch of washed up players was.

 

All I said was the guys I mentioned were not slugs. Matheson scored more points per game last year than Bennett and Ekblad did. That's what I will say.  

[alfredoh2009]

1 hour ago, GHT120 said:

 

Respectfully, unless they've decided to LTIR Price before the season to make it under the cap ... cuts will be primarily cap dependent to set the roster for that first game ... for example, as @dlbalr pointed out (somewhere), demoting Slafkovsky before the season means if he is brought back up his caphit goes from $950K ro $4.45M because his performance bonuses have to be counted in ... once that first game is played the Habs can LTIR Price and then make roster decisions based on who they want playing where. 

once the season starts, if cp31 is injured, he will go on LTIR. Not off-season IR but regular LTIR.

I think that is what they have said they are doing. The is no point not using that cap relief. 
 

So, yeah, development plan and management choices, not the tail wagging the dog.

 

[hab29RETIRED]

29 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

All I said was the guys I mentioned were not slugs. Matheson scored more points per game last year than Bennett and Ekblad did. That's what I will say.  

Who would you you rather have on your team - Elblad or Matheson?  Bennett, or any of Hoffman, Gallagher, Armia, or Dvorak?

[Prime Minister Koivu]

1 hour ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Only re impact player is Caufield. Monohan has been hurt every year for 4 years. It was to be expected. Matheson was a depth dman everywhere he has played. If you think the reason we did so bad last year was because rookies like Guhke, wifi, and players still trying to make a name for themselves were hurt, or that any of these players LAST YEAR or even this year are as valuable as Barkov, Ekblad or even Bennett, than I don’t know what to say.

 

Without some young players over achieving against expectations, we would have been an even worse team than 5th last. Had some of our vets like Edmondson, Savard, Gallagher, Hoffman, Armia and Drouin not missed so many games last year, I doubt the young D, or guys like RHP would have gotten a chance and we probably would have been a worse team than we were.

 

injuries were not the reason we were so bad last year, lack of talent and a bunch of washed up players was.

Injuries were not the reason we sucked but all of those injuries didn’t help us win. 
 

Lesser players played more minutes as a result. Wideman for example 

 

 

3 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

A few reasons stick out:

 

1) Look at the rest of the division.  Who could Montreal realistically finish ahead of?  Maybe Detroit but I have them a peg or two ahead of the Habs.  If you're finishing last in a division, you're going to be near the bottom five of the league no matter what any individual improvements are made.

 

2) While it's possible (I'd say a good chance) that the younger players have room for improvement, there's an expectation that Montembeault will be the version that finished last season (.891 SV% in the last three months), not the first half version based on his history.  If that happens, that will offset some of those offensive improvements.

 

3) Newhook is an upgrade on Drouin, sure, but not to the tune of several more wins on his own.

 

And I wouldn't have much optimism about Gallagher - I think his days of being an NHL-calibre player are coming to an end; he's not magically turning things around.

You make good arguments!

 

Perhaps the Habs will be a bit more competitive this year but that may not translate to more wins. 
 

I actually hope that Gallagher gets some strong minutes to start the season, he could use a confidence boost. 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

51 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Who would you you rather have on your team - Elblad or Matheson?  Bennett, or any of Hoffman, Gallagher, Armia, or Dvorak?

 

I never brought up Hoffman, Gallagher, Armia or Dvorak, that was never my point. I never mentioned those guys. 

 

Who would you rather have Bennett or Dach?  Bennett or Caulfield?  Bennett's career year was 49 points. My point was simply that the Habs missed a lot of important players last year that were not slugs and you made a bunch of inferences from that post. The Habs were not going to make the playoffs last year even with those guys healthy.  But they were important pieces.  If you think the guys I highlighted were slugs then we will just have to agree to disagree and move forward. Cheers

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

2 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

That deal for him was an obvious mistake the moment it rad made. We gave up a 1st and a 3rd fir this bum. Is he even worth a 3rd now?

 

It's a classic case of a GM not knowing when to pivot from trying to contend to rebuilding. I give MB full marks for bold moves that created a team that could reach the Finals in '21. And I give him a big fat "F" for foolishly thinking that same team could do it again without Price, Weber, Danault, or Perry. He's not unique in this - we see GMs clinging to the idea that their team is still within its "window" all the time - but it was still a humungous mistake; laughable, in retrospect. But it was a fortunate mistake, since it meant that we could clean house and finally bring in a group that seems to have a clue about player development. (On the other hand, we still have crappy contracts like Dvorak's left over as legacy pieces).

 

The deeper point was that, after Plekanec crapped out and the team hit the skids, MB had no plan other than improvising year after year. in 2020 his improvisations worked great. In 2021 they were disastrous. That's what happens when you have no plan.

[alfredoh2009]

I still believe that a healthy Dvorak can be a serviceable 3C on a rebuilding team, until a prospect center emerges from the development pipe

[tomh009]

4 hours ago, dlbalr said:

2) While it's possible (I'd say a good chance) that the younger players have room for improvement, there's an expectation that Montembeault will be the version that finished last season (.891 SV% in the last three months), not the first half version based on his history.  If that happens, that will offset some of those offensive improvements.

Montembeault is indeed a question mark, but he didn't play THAT badly near the end of the season, with the exception of the last handful of games when the Habs were doing pretty badly anyway--the last five games averaged more than 51 shots against. What really shows on the chart is his hot performance in January, but otherwise he was still pretty consistently making more saves than expected.

 

 

We don't know yet whether he'll match his performance this season, regress or improve further. Personally, I really do hope he can be good enough to bridge the gap until one of our many prospects can be ready for the NHL.

[GHT120]

3 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

once the season starts, if cp31 is injured, he will go on LTIR. Not off-season IR but regular LTIR.

I think that is what they have said they are doing. The is no point not using that cap relief. 
 

So, yeah, development plan and management choices, not the tail wagging the dog.

 

 

(1) If?

 

(2) That is what they WANT to do ... but as I showed earlier, right now they can't do that without trading a veteran ... so 🤞Hughes can pull it off

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

3 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

That deal for him was an obvious mistake the moment it rad made. We gave up a 1st and a 3rd fir this bum. Is he even worth a 3rd now?

 

Certainly agree on this point. Gave up too much for Dvorak, panic move by MB after the KK debacle. A lot of people thought he would score more on the Habs, doesn't always work out that way. 

[dlbalr]

5 hours ago, GHT120 said:

 

 

Unfortunately, I have to make your number bigger.  Harris' $1.4 doesn't come off entirely, just $1.15 so the overage on your roster is actually $1,540,416.

 

Without going through the rest of the math, if they can actually get it that close, all they need to do is paper Harvey-Pinard (he's also waiver-exempt) and Xhekaj down and that would be that.  They could go with that roster for season-opening purposes, then do their IR/LTIR placements, and actually carry a full roster of healthy players.  That would require waiving all of Ylonen, Pezzetta, and Primeau, and that's where I think the hesitation will be.

[dlbalr]

3 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

That deal for him was an obvious mistake the moment it rad made. We gave up a 1st and a 3rd fir this bum. Is he even worth a 3rd now?

 

I hate to break it to you but it was actually worse - 2022 1st and 2024 2nd.  Montreal received a 1st and a 3rd for Kotkaniemi.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I still believe that a healthy Dvorak can be a serviceable 3C on a rebuilding team, until a prospect center emerges from the development pipe

 

Perhaps, but 4.4M/year is too much for a 3C on a rebuilding team. 

[Sir_Boagalott]

32 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

I hate to break it to you but it was actually worse - 2022 1st and 2024 2nd.  Montreal received a 1st and a 3rd for Kotkaniemi.

 

While that is technically true, it should be fully realized that if the Habs had kept that 1st rnd pick MB and Timmins would have wasted it. 

 

I find it funny that people complain about the 1st rnd pick because its really a moot point.  If the Habs had used it there is a high probability that the player would have amounted to nothing anyway - as per their usual tradition.

 

It is unarguable that their history with 1st rnd picks was atrocious. 

 

 

[tomh009]

1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

Without going through the rest of the math, if they can actually get it that close, all they need to do is paper Harvey-Pinard (he's also waiver-exempt) and Xhekaj down and that would be that.  They could go with that roster for season-opening purposes, then do their IR/LTIR placements, and actually carry a full roster of healthy players.  That would require waiving all of Ylonen, Pezzetta, and Primeau, and that's where I think the hesitation will be.

I don't see them waiving Ylonen (who would most likely be claimed) when they can paper Gallagher to Laval. No one will claim him--or if someone does, we can celebrate--and the cap savings is $375K more than for Ylonen. Similarly, they could paper Armia instead of Pezzetta. Primeau, they may well be willing to take that risk.

[tomh009]

25 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

It is unarguable that their history with 1st rnd picks was atrocious.

Most of the Habs' first-round picks during the Bergevin era were in the 20s, where the percentages are far less favourable.

 

But they did make some decent picks: Sergachev (9th), Caufield (15th) and Guhle (16th) were certainly solid picks. Trading Sergachev turned out to be a huge mistake but that doesn't make it a poor draft pick.

 

Galchenyuk (3rd) should have been good but he went off the rails. Kotkaniemi (3rd) was a reach already on draft day. Juulsen (26th) might have been good but we'll never know. And Mailloux (31st) was controversial but might yet be a solid pick, too.

 

But, really, this horse is deader than most dead horses I've seen in my lifetime.

[Prime Minister Koivu]

One big difference from last year is Slafkovsky. 
 

He is significantly more aware of where he is, where the play is and where other players are. 
 

I’ve noticed a big improvement 

 

Also, Monahan and Dach belong together