Habs Pre-season 2023-2024

[GHT120]

 

[GHT120]

 

[IN THE HEARTS OF MEN]

Now that Maillet and Andersson were waived which was always going to be the case considering there showing at camp thus far... I would believe after Mondays game likely roster moves will be

Heinemen CUT

Mailloux Norlinder Barron CUT

Primeau waived or traded for pucks

 

14 forwards

7 dman

2 goalies

 

Obviously we will add to that if we claim off the waiver wire.

 

 

Just my guess

 

Caufield   Suzy   Monahan*

 

Slav         Dach     RHP*

 

Ylonen***   Newhook*   Anderson*

 

Pearson***  Evans    Gally

 

Pezzetta***/ Armia***

 

Matheson Savard

Guhle Kova

Xhakej**  Lindstrom**

Harris**

 

Allen

Monty

(Tandem)

 

* interchangeable

** interchangeable 

*** interchangeable 

[DON]

31st eh?

Cant argue a whole lot; but seems lower than i expect.

Montreal Canadiens 2023-24 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings - The Athletic

[alfredoh2009]

55 minutes ago, DON said:

31st eh?

Cant argue a whole lot; but seems lower than i expect.

Montreal Canadiens 2023-24 season preview: Playoff chances, projected points, roster rankings - The Athletic

I have them bottom 10 in the league and I hope they are in the draft lottery. I just don't want them to tank or to mange development or injuries as stupidly as last season: I hope they are competitive most nights, like Therrien's teams were

[hab29RETIRED]

3 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I have them bottom 10 in the league and I hope they are in the draft lottery. I just don't want them to tank or to mange development or injuries as stupidly as last season: I hope they are competitive most nights, like Therrien's teams were

You mean the Therrien teams that had established NHL players like a healthy Price, Markov, Subban, Pactioretty, a healthy Gallagher, Pleks, Gionta?

 

you seriously think coaching is the issue?? We are in a friggin planned  rebuild! I’ll take a couple of years of this over the yo-yo MB/Therrien years! There is a reason why Therrien has only been a head coach for three teams - and two of those are the same franchise - he was French. He cost us a playoff series with his selfish bench minors in his first season stint. Lost the room with a team of young superstars like Crosby, Malkin, Letang, Stall, and was a complete asshole in his last stint here, and we constantly were yo-yo bubble teams under him.

 

 

[tomh009]

This is based on Dom's model--and it says 57% probability the Habs will finish with same or fewer points than the injury-riddled last season. Definitely not an optimistic projection.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

3 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

This is based on Dom's model--and it says 57% probability the Habs will finish with same or fewer points than the injury-riddled last season. Definitely not an optimistic projection.

 

Definitely not optimistic but trying to predict how young rebuilding teams are going to do can be difficult. The Habs could surprise to the upside or not. Nobody predicted New Jersey would improve 49 points last year. I certainly don't think that will happen to the Habs but I think they could surprise to the upside. Every sports publication is going to make predictions and I don't really care much what they say. Just glad hockey is back. 

[tomh009]

26 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I just don't want them to tank or to mange development or injuries as stupidly as last season

Manage development as stupidly as last season? Apart from Slafkovsky, how would you have managed development differently last season, given their constraints?

[DON]

4 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

This is based on Dom's model--and it says 57% probability the Habs will finish with same or fewer points than the injury-riddled last season. Definitely not an optimistic projection.

Bottom 10 seems likely; but Arizona, Ducks, SJ, Columbus, Canucks and couple others should be pretty weak also i am guessing, but safe to say the Habs should finish near bottom among the East teams.

 

[tomh009]

4 minutes ago, DON said:

Bottom 10 seems likely; but Arizona, Ducks, SJ, Columbus, Canucks and couple others should be pretty weak also i am guessing, but safe to say the Habs should finish near bottom among the East teams.

Bottom 10 is likely, but I do expect more than 70 points unless things go to hell in a handbasket.

[DON]

13 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

Manage development as stupidly as last season? Apart from Slafkovsky, how would you have managed development differently last season, given their constraints?

Guhle overusage, played injured.

Caufield played injured

2 things i didnt like.

 

[Commandant]

40 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

You mean the Therrien teams that had established NHL players like a healthy Price, Markov, Subban, Pactioretty, a healthy Gallagher, Pleks, Gionta?

 

you seriously think coaching is the issue?? We are in a friggin planned  rebuild! I’ll take a couple of years of this over the yo-yo MB/Therrien years! There is a reason why Therrien has only been a head coach for three teams - and two of those are the same franchise - he was French. He cost us a playoff series with his selfish bench minors in his first season stint. Lost the room with a team of young superstars like Crosby, Malkin, Letang, Stall, and was a complete asshole in his last stint here, and we constantly were yo-yo bubble teams under him.

 

 

 

He's taken shots at MSL and HuGo every time he gets the chance ever since Ducharme was fired.  This isn't even an act anymore when he blames coaching for everything, he's just bitter with an axe to grind. 

[tomh009]

35 minutes ago, DON said:

Guhle overusage, played injured.

Caufield played injured

2 things i didnt like.

Reducing Guhle usage would have required having another option. And I don't know that this would have helped his development any.

 

As for players playing injured, so much of it depends on what the players themselves tell the medical staff. If they say they feel fine, it's difficult for the team to determine otherwise. So, I don't think that is entirely on the team.

[alfredoh2009]

36 minutes ago, DON said:

Guhle overusage, played injured.

Caufield played injured

2 things i didnt like.

 

yes, exactly. That was stupid. Those two players are part of the future core, essential to the Habs success.

[alfredoh2009]

Just now, tomh009 said:

Reducing Guhle usage would have required having another option. And I don't know that this would have helped his development any.

 

As for players playing injured, so much of it depends on what the players themselves tell the medical staff. If they say they feel fine, it's difficult for the team to determine otherwise. So, I don't think that is entirely on the team.

 

If they can do it for race horses, they can do it for hockey players. Specially with all the video and analysts. We could tell something was off with some players: shooting strength, stamina, skating, etc.

 

A medical assessment could have been done despite what the players were saying.

[GHT120]

1 minute ago, alfredoh2009 said:

 

If they can do it for race horses, they can do it for hockey players. Specially with all the video and analysts. We could tell something was off with some players: shooting strength, stamina, skating, etc.

 

A medical assessment could have been done despite what the players were saying.

 

Unlike with horses, medical assessments on players, other than things that show on x-rays and MRIs, all depend on the player providing honest answers.

[GHT120]

7 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

Reducing Guhle usage would have required having another option. And I don't know that this would have helped his development any.

 

 

Beyond that, there was the TINY issue of the Habs being tight to the cap all season

[Prime Minister Koivu]

I’m not sure why the Habs are projected to be roughly the same as last season. 
 

We had an enormous amount of injuries last season. Surely we don’t project to have the same amount this season. 
 

Caufield was on pace for 45 goals last season and if he stays healthy he should easily hit that number. 
 

Gallagher is surely in for a much better season! Unless he is a washed up injury casualty. 
 

Do we expect that Dach hasn’t grown?

 

A full year of Monahan (hopefully)

 

Is the addition of Newhook not a big help over last season?

 

A full year of Matheson (hopefully) plus a year of seasoning for the rookies. 
 

Surely we are better than we were last season. 

[Plutarch]

Sorry to jump in the middle of a discussion with a seperate point but..

 

Where do we think Gallagher is as a player now? On a mediocre team would he be a middle six? Exclusively a 3rd line guy? Or is he broken down to 4th line?

 

Obviously his likelihood of injury would make any team weary but would he be a league min, 2M, 3M? What is he at now?

[alfredoh2009]

3 minutes ago, Plutarch said:

Sorry to jump in the middle of a discussion with a seperate point but..

 

Where do we think Gallagher is as a player now? On a mediocre team would he be a middle six? Exclusively a 3rd line guy? Or is he broken down to 4th line?

 

Obviously his likelihood of injury would make any team weary but would he be a league min, 2M, 3M? What is he at now?

 

in my view, Armia and Gallagher are interchangeable players on what I expect their contribution to the team may be. Although they are very VERY different players on the ice, they are both overpaid and prone to injury.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I dunno. I look at our FW unit and think "IF it stays healthy - or reasonably so - that's actually a pretty good crew." Definitely a forward configuration that is good enough to be a bubble team IMHO.

 

The problem lies in the back end. At G, if Montembault can show that last year was not a fluke, then we have at least bubble-team-quality netminding. But the only player on D who has proven anything is Mattheson. Kovacevic and Savard are no more than bottom-pairing guys on a good team. So it comes down to Guhle, Harris and maybe one of the others building on last season rather than regressing. And staying healthy. 

 

That's a lot of "ifs." And for that reason, I think it makes sense to assume the Habs will finish well out of a playoff spot. 

 

What I would say, though, is that there is a universe - a plausible universe - where this team competes for a bubble spot. In that universe, key players (especially Monahan) avoid catastrophic injury, the young D largely progresses rather than regressing or stagnating, and Monty is consistently solid. Of these three requirements, staying healthy is the least likely, based on recent history. I give it maybe a 20% chance of happening. 

[alfredoh2009]

7 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I dunno. I look at our FW unit and think "IF it stays healthy - or reasonably so - that's actually a pretty good crew." Definitely a forward configuration that is good enough to be a bubble team IMHO.

 

The problem lies in the back end. At G, if Montembault can show that last year was not a fluke, then we have at least bubble-team-quality netminding. But the only player on D who has proven anything is Mattheson. Kovacevic and Savard are no more than bottom-pairing guys on a good team. So it comes down to Guhle, Harris and maybe one of the others building on last season rather than regressing. And staying healthy. 

 

That's a lot of "ifs." And for that reason, I think it makes sense to assume the Habs will finish well out of a playoff spot. 

 

What I would say, though, is that there is a universe - a plausible universe - where this team competes for a bubble spot. In that universe, key players (especially Monahan) avoid catastrophic injury, the young D largely progresses rather than regressing or stagnating, and Monty is consistently solid. Of these three requirements, staying healthy is the least likely, based on recent history. I give it maybe a 20% chance of happening. 

good analysis

 

there is also the goalie situation where it is improbable they go with three goalies for a long period. Having a goalie coming in cold every so often may be detrimental to them. Unless Primeau becomes the de-facto practice goalie and the two others are played as a tandem and that they find their grove

[hab29RETIRED]

14 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

I’m not sure why the Habs are projected to be roughly the same as last season. 
 

We had an enormous amount of injuries last season. Surely we don’t project to have the same amount this season. 
 

Caufield was on pace for 45 goals last season and if he stays healthy he should easily hit that number. 
 

Gallagher is surely in for a much better season! Unless he is a washed up injury casualty. 
 

Do we expect that Dach hasn’t grown?

 

A full year of Monahan (hopefully)

 

Is the addition of Newhook not a big help over last season?

 

A full year of Matheson (hopefully) plus a year of seasoning for the rookies. 
 

Surely we are better than we were last season. 

I think we should be better than last year. But are goaltending won us games we should have lost last year. Not sure if that will happen this year.
 

even without the injuries, we looked a lot like n AHL roster last year. Let’s say Edmondson and some other vets were healthy - would wifi or Guhle have gotten the same chance?  Would the habs actually have been better if the vets were healthy?? I don’t think so.

 

we weren’t florida missing a Barkov, ekblad or Bennett for stretches. We were missing slugs.
 

as far as this year goes, we can’t expect a linear progression by the kids - including Caufield and Suzuki. There will be setbacks with a young lineup. If all goes well think in two years we challenge for the playoffs, three years be a serious contender. If we get in next year it will be a bonus - amd that can only happen if the key kids pan out and progress faster than expected (Slafkovsky, newhook, Roy, Heineman, Reinbacker, Hutson, Guhle, Harris), Dach, Suzuki and Caufield establish themselves as stars, and we actually have good to elite goaltending 

 

If we were in the west maybe we could be a bubble team this year. In the east, there are too many teams that are clearly better than us, and a lot of times that should be a lot better than us. 

[alfredoh2009]

This:

 

11 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

If we were in the west maybe we could be a bubble team this year. In the east, there are too many teams that are clearly better than us, and a lot of times that should be a lot better than us.