Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted April 18 Author Share Posted April 18 37 minutes ago, DON said: Well, on May 6th or 7th will find out what spot. Jets vs Aves, i think it is, assume Aves will be favored? Montreal Canadiens Draft Lottery Odds Officially Locked In (msn.com) First Overall: 8.5 percent Second Overall: 8.6 percent Third Overall: 0.3 percent Fourth Overall: N/A Fifth Overall: 24.5 percent Sixth Overall: 44 percent Seventh Overall: 14.2 percent. Why would the Aves be favoured? Winnipeg is on a roll, has home ice advantage and has far better goaltending. The Aves have been mediocre lately. If I was betting man I would take the Jets in a heartbeat right now although I really hope they lose. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 7 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: That's what he said, he also said in an interview with Servalli not that long ago that if the best player was a Left Defensemen they "might" consider trading down. I think the bottom line is that Hughes is a smart cookie and will keep all options open. Everything he says is carefully measured as most teams like to keep information about who they might draft hidden to maintain maximum leverage in case of any trading. Just glad the Coyotes won last night. He said he MIGHT... key word MIGHT trade down in that interview. Never did he say he wont draft a dman, which is why i asked Boagalott what he was talking about. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prime Minister Koivu Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 49 minutes ago, DON said: Well, on May 6th or 7th will find out what spot. Jets vs Aves, i think it is, assume Aves will be favored? Montreal Canadiens Draft Lottery Odds Officially Locked In (msn.com) First Overall: 8.5 percent Second Overall: 8.6 percent Third Overall: 0.3 percent Fourth Overall: N/A Fifth Overall: 24.5 percent Sixth Overall: 44 percent Seventh Overall: 14.2 percent. I mixed up the draft date with the lottery date so your post makes me happy 👍 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 1 hour ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: That's what he said, he also said in an interview with Servalli not that long ago that if the best player was a Left Defensemen they "might" consider trading down. 53 minutes ago, Commandant said: He said he MIGHT... key word MIGHT trade down in that interview. Never did he say he wont draft a dman, which is why i asked Boagalott what he was talking about. He did only say "might" ... and there are three RHD in many/most of the Top 10s ... Artyom Levshunov, RD, Michigan State University (NCAA) ... Zayne Parekh, RD, Saginaw Spirit (OHL) ... Carter Yakemchuk, RD, Calgary Hitmen (WHL) ... Top 6 in Sportsnet's April ranking. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 1 hour ago, DON said: Well, on May 6th or 7th will find out what spot. Jets vs Aves, i think it is, assume Aves will be favored? Montreal Canadiens Draft Lottery Odds Officially Locked In (msn.com) First Overall: 8.5 percent Second Overall: 8.6 percent Third Overall: 0.3 percent Fourth Overall: N/A Fifth Overall: 24.5 percent Sixth Overall: 44 percent Seventh Overall: 14.2 percent. And the 'Yotes (gotta use that as much as possible until they slip into their "5-yr option" coma) gifted the Habs a full percentage point in better odds at #1 and 1.1% at #2. From a conspiracy theorist perspective, I fear the NHL favouring Salt Lake City (get them off to a good start) and Chicago (their new Toews and Kane). #1 would (seemingly) pretty much have to be Celebrini ... #2 might bring in the "defenceman" debate ... Sportsnet's April rankings have RHD Artyom Levshunov, Carter Yakemchuk and Zayne Parekh in their Top 6 ahead of all forwards other than Celebrini and Demidov Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeLassister Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 1 hour ago, DON said: Well, on May 6th or 7th will find out what spot. Jets vs Aves, i think it is, assume Aves will be favored? Montreal Canadiens Draft Lottery Odds Officially Locked In (msn.com) First Overall: 8.5 percent Second Overall: 8.6 percent Third Overall: 0.3 percent Fourth Overall: N/A Fifth Overall: 24.5 percent Sixth Overall: 44 percent Seventh Overall: 14.2 percent. I don't get where this 0.3% comes from for 3rd overall... Anyone ? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted April 18 Author Share Posted April 18 4 minutes ago, JoeLassister said: I don't get where this 0.3% comes from for 3rd overall... Anyone ? I thought about the same thing, I am still thinking. I think it might have something to do with a team outside the top ten winning the lottery and can only move up 10 spots. So let's say they move from 12 to 2 and then the Habs win the 2 slot lottery but that is already taken so they move to 3 instead??? Maybe Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 11 minutes ago, JoeLassister said: I don't get where this 0.3% comes from for 3rd overall... Anyone ? For example: https://www.tankathon.com/nhl/pick_odds I stared at the odds for a while, and logically I don't see where the 0.3% comes from ... if the Habs win either lottery they pick #1 or #2 ... if two teams ahead of them win the lotteries they stay at #5 ... if one of the teams ahead of them and one teams behind them (6th to 12th) win the lotteries they drop to #6 ... if two teams behind them (6th to 12th) win the lotteries they drop to #7. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted April 18 Author Share Posted April 18 Just to be 100% accurate, here is what Hughes said in his interview with Seravalli; " if somebody is clearly the best player available you're taking that player, for us if the best player available was a left shot D, I dunno maybe we would try and make a trade, trade up or trade back or something of that nature" I would guess that means they are less likely to take a Dickinson or Silayev. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 24 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: I thought about the same thing, I am still thinking. I think it might have something to do with a team outside the top ten winning the lottery and can only move up 10 spots. So let's say they move from 12 to 2 and then the Habs win the 2 slot lottery but that is already taken so they move to 3 instead??? Maybe I think you have it right. Flyers have a 5.1% chance of winning (and drafting second); if that happens, Habs have an 8.6% chance of winning the second draw, and that would result in a roughly 0.3% probability of drafting third, behind the Flyers. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dlbalr Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 23 hours ago, GHT120 said: Rich owners "eat" contracts if GMs over-promise and under-deliver ... Presidents usually get to have 2/3 GMs before their heads are on the chopping block ... as long as he remains GM, Dubas is at higher risk than other Presidents of getting a nice severance package but having no job to go to every day. While Pittsburgh is owned by FSG, they're not exactly known as being high-spending teams when it comes to the front office. Dubas is all in on analytics which aligns with ownership. He could go on a three-year vacation in the Bahamas and still have his job. 17 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: The thing I don't get with Dubas is that he doesn't seem to know which way to go. He trades for Karlsson which seems to indicate he is going all in with an aging core and then he trades Guentzel who is still in his prime for young players/picks at the deadline?? Is he all in or doing a rebuild?? I think you have to do one or the other not a bit of both. At the time of the Karlsson trade, the thought was this would make them a playoff contender. By the deadline, they were a few points out and Guentzel is a pending UFA. The fact they prioritized prospects over picks suggests they're not moving off the win-now (or soon) approach but knew there was a good chance Guentzel was leaving for nothing in free agency so they opted to sell. 55 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: I thought about the same thing, I am still thinking. I think it might have something to do with a team outside the top ten winning the lottery and can only move up 10 spots. So let's say they move from 12 to 2 and then the Habs win the 2 slot lottery but that is already taken so they move to 3 instead??? Maybe Yep. 12 wins the first lottery. That locks SJ at 1 and 12 moves up to 2. Whoever wins the second lottery gets 3, hence the miniscule odds. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JoeLassister Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 1 hour ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: I thought about the same thing, I am still thinking. I think it might have something to do with a team outside the top ten winning the lottery and can only move up 10 spots. So let's say they move from 12 to 2 and then the Habs win the 2 slot lottery but that is already taken so they move to 3 instead??? Maybe thanks Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 8 hours ago, JoeLassister said: thanks Sucks that 6th pick is 44% chance for Habs. But seems rankings very mixed up for top 10, so 5th vs 6th pick not a huge loss. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 11 minutes ago, DON said: Sucks that 6th pick is 44% chance for Habs. But seems rankings very mixed up for top 10, so 5th vs 6th pick not a huge loss. Still better than 5th ... or 6th/7th. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Interesting article explaining how Winnipeg's pick ***** COULD ***** end up as low as 23rd overall ... VERY unlikely, but possible. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted April 19 Author Share Posted April 19 This was from April 15, I looked it over several times as I couldn't see Konsta Helenius in the 1st round. Am I going blind? How could you possibly not have him in the 1st round? Crazy. Then I did some research and this guy Jake Rill is a baseball reporter, maybe shouldn't write about things you don't have a clue about. 2024 NHL Mock Draft: Full Round 1 Projections for Every Team | News, Scores, Highlights, Stats, and Rumors | Bleacher Report 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted April 19 Author Share Posted April 19 Yes, Winnipeg needs to go out in the 1st two rounds and some of the teams that have less points than Winnipeg need to make the final four. It really helped that they didn't win their division. Go Avs but Winnipeg finished the season on a roll and they have much better goaltending than the Avs so I expect Winnipeg to win the 1st round. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 2 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: This was from April 15, I looked it over several times as I couldn't see Konsta Helenius in the 1st round. Am I going blind? How could you possibly not have him in the 1st round? Crazy. Then I did some research and this guy Jake Rill is a baseball reporter, maybe shouldn't write about things you don't have a clue about. 2024 NHL Mock Draft: Full Round 1 Projections for Every Team | News, Scores, Highlights, Stats, and Rumors | Bleacher Report 25 Henry Mews 31 Henry Mews. He has one player drafted twice. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted April 19 Author Share Posted April 19 45 minutes ago, Commandant said: 25 Henry Mews 31 Henry Mews. He has one player drafted twice. Pathetic journalism. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 Impressive #s and offense is what Habs lack... just saying. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 3 hours ago, Commandant said: 25 Henry Mews 31 Henry Mews. He has one player drafted twice. At least he isn't drafting a dead player. In the 1995 Las Vegas Posse dispersal draft, the Ottawa Rough Riders selected defensive end Derrell Robertson in the fifth round, only to discover that he had passed away in a car crash roughly five months earlier ... a year later, the Montreal Alouettes selected defensive end James Eggink in the fifth round of the Canadian college draft in 1996; after the draft a Concordia University football coach noticed Eggink's selection and called the Montreal Alouettes to inform them that Eggink had passed away from cancer a number of months prior. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 2 hours ago, DON said: Impressive #s and offense is what Habs lack... just saying. As always, with soooooo mnay players, the question is whether the #s will translate to the NHL. After watching his junior career I was so pumped when the habs got Corey Locke in the 4th round of the 2003 after his CHL Player of the year and Top Scorer Awards (Regular Season: 66 gms, 63 g, 88 a, 151 pts; Playoffs: 46 gms, 23 gms, 19 g, 19 a, 38 pts) ... GREAT AHL player ... 9 gms, 0 g, 1 a ... albeit Locke was smaller. That is why NHL scouts/GMs get well-paid. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 12 minutes ago, GHT120 said: At least he isn't drafting a dead player. In the 1995 Las Vegas Posse dispersal draft, the Ottawa Rough Riders selected defensive end Derrell Robertson in the fifth round, only to discover that he had passed away in a car crash roughly five months earlier ... a year later, the Montreal Alouettes selected defensive end James Eggink in the fifth round of the Canadian college draft in 1996; after the draft a Concordia University football coach noticed Eggink's selection and called the Montreal Alouettes to inform them that Eggink had passed away from cancer a number of months prior. Florida picked Guy Lafleur in the expansion draft, and apologized to Pierre page, becuase they didn’t actually want anyone from the Nordiques. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 8 minutes ago, GHT120 said: As always, with soooooo mnay players, the question is whether the #s will translate to the NHL. After watching his junior career I was so pumped when the habs got Corey Locke in the 4th round of the 2003 after his CHL Player of the year and Top Scorer Awards (Regular Season: 66 gms, 63 g, 88 a, 151 pts; Playoffs: 46 gms, 23 gms, 19 g, 19 a, 38 pts) ... GREAT AHL player ... 9 gms, 0 g, 1 a ... albeit Locke was smaller. That is why NHL scouts/GMs get well-paid. You are reaching way back for Locke example. Is zero reason Not relevant to drafting a WHL sniper in 2024 is it. Given are 1,000 other top prospects who flopped, we all know is always bit of a crap shoot with high-school kids. And i would prefer to see them go bit more risky for offense upside, than a solid 2 way sure fire NHLer. Like a more offensive Demidov or Catton. (like: i preferred Jagger Firkus (63gms 61goals 126pts this year) vs a Owen Beck) Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted April 19 Share Posted April 19 29 minutes ago, DON said: You are reaching way back for Locke example. Is zero reason Not relevant to drafting a WHL sniper in 2024 is it. Given are 1,000 other top prospects who flopped, we all know is always bit of a crap shoot with high-school kids. And i would prefer to see them go bit more risky for offense upside, than a solid 2 way sure fire NHLer. Like a more offensive Demidov or Catton. (like: i preferred Jagger Firkus (63gms 61goals 126pts this year) vs a Owen Beck) Not sure if I’d want Catton at #5 when there will be at least three other forwards, or two other Right Dmen I’d want over him. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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