2024-25 Montreal Canadiens discussion thread

[DON]

1 hour ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Does Dobes really have this weakness?

Primeau seemed to didnt he?

[Butterface]

With a big goalie like Dobes…. you shoot high. He covers a ton of net down low with his leg span, so going high is the obvious shot…… that’s the book on any tall, athletic goalie. Right beside the ears, under the crossbar.

 

Doby uses the same modified butterfly as most in the NHL, and at 6’5”, he moves exceptionally well. His down low coverage is excellent. He doesn’t just drop and stay there….. he’s active on his edges and constantly adjusting his angles. His edge work is outstanding. He’s strong on his posts, uses reverse vertical horizontal effectively but transitioning out of it when needed (rvh is the way the goalies cover the posts on high tight shots but also the position allows them to get to wrap arounds). Laterally, he’s quick for a big dude, which allows him to make desperation saves if needed.. and he’s done that a lot. He’s very athletic, keeps his hands active, and doesn’t waste movement (he has gotten out of position a few times - one led to an open net goal when he missed pushing off a post with his skate) but for the most part he is under control and not over reacting. He has decent rebound control….

 

So if I’m writing a book on him or any NHL goalie using the modified butterfly…

 

Take away his eyes, then elevate. A screened goalie naturally drops to take away the lower net when he knows a shot is coming. You don’t see goalies jumping to cover the top of the net, do you ?
 

So you shoot high. It’s the simplest “book” and covers most NHL goalies. McGuire is stating the obvious. 

 

The rest of the “book” on any goalie is……. Make them move, force them into tough saves. Open up the legs side-to-side. Then put it through their legs. Attack blocker-side just above the pad as he’s dropping or already down. Elevate, because every goalie struggles to get to elevated pucks once they’re down.

 

At the end of the day, I’m not worried about a “book” on a Doby, I’m worried about who the shooter is and how wide open did we leave him. The last two PP goals on Doby left a wide open player after a cross crease pass… but yeah they also elevated it. No goalie could save those… . Elite goal scorers make it tough on any goalie, no matter what the book.. let’s worry who we leave open. I like Dobys chances when he sees the puck and the shooter… goalies hate screens, shots through a defender and deflections. Also missed coverage/wide open guys on far side of net. The rest they are okay with.

 

Book Smook. 

McGuire looking for work.

[DON]

Wayne eh? Better than 'Laney' anyways.

He sees his teammates strengths as most fans do.

 

Exclusive Interview With Jayden Struble On His Game, His Teammates And The Upcoming Lineup Change

 

"... before he went to dinner with his usual group on the road, Michael Pezzetta. Arber Xhekaj, Kaiden Guhle, Juraj Slafkovsky, Jakub Dobes, and Wayne (which is what he calls his defense partner Lane Hutson)."

 

"... I put him on the spot and asked him which part of his teammates he would take to build the ultimate player. It was funny to see him struggle to decide, but he landed on Suzuki’s vision, Alex Newhook’s speed for a forward, and Mike Matheson’s for a defenseman. He would have either Laine or Caufield’s shot, and the latter’s hands, although he added Hutson’s would also be an option. “You’ve got to put him somewhere; he’s so good,” and finally, he’d add Anderson’s grit."

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

McGuire started out in broadcasting on Montreal radio, and he was initially very insightful - a real advance on what went before. As he got bigger, joining TSN and NBC, he devolved into this blaring, in your face, popping-up-everywhere opinion-peddler trying constantly to lobby for a GM job and lecturing everyone with his supposedly superior knowledge even as his public judgement failures piled up. 

 

Then he got the Ottawa VP job and completely bombed out. 

 

Then he (unfortunately) went through cancer and recovery.

 

Ever since the last two events, I find him to be a rather sad figure. He's much more muted than before. He sounds old, diminished, and the passion seems drained out of him. And he remains no more insightful than before he went to Ottawa. All told, a sad case.

[Butterface]

https://awinninghabit.com/pierre-mcguire-believes-canadiens-rookie-goaltender-has-a-problem-with-his-game
 

give me a break… I remembered it wrong in my last post… the 3rd and 4th goals were power play… the 3rd goal was a cross crease no chance. The fourth goal was a high tip no chance (but the puck went in low in net). The first two goals were Doby playing the puck and though blame could be put on him for those, both goals went above pad and below blocker (not high). The fifth goal was the 5 second overtime where he was beaten high glove (this was only high goal)… but a very good shot. A perfect one.

 

Of those shots on goal he only had one that went in high and it was a breakaway and very quick and a perfect shot.

 

Dobes has better stats per 60 than Monty…not sure why Dobes isn’t playing… but I don’t think it’s because there is a book on him.

 

It might be that this is Monty’s team and Monty’s net to lose and a respect team seniority thing. It might be a where you were born thing. But it can’t be stats of a goals saved above expected per 60 thing. Which is the only fair stat vs stat comparison of two goalies. If it were, Dobes would have the net.

 

I’m sure (I hope) MSL has a plan in all this. Because if as a back-up goalie you don’t feel respected or worse the coach gives the goalie a no confidence feeling … as a goalie you get performance anxiety and it does affect your play. Hopefully Doby doesn’t get down like I assume Primeau did, but Doby shouldn’t as his record is better than Primeau’s and his stats are better per 60 than Monty’s. I worry Dobes will get cold or worse lose confidence without being played or given confidence.

 

Again I hope MSL knows what he is doing. I was pretty peeved on how the games/goalies were being deployed just before the 4 nations… but have obviously no complaints after. Monty was playing very very well before these last starts. Doby had an amazing game in Calgary (but lost 1-0) and an average game in Seattle where he kept his tired back to back team in it in the first period… had a great second period too… then the team got into penalty issues and the fiasco in over time. 
 

None of it because there is a book on Doby.

 

McGuire is full of %$#@.

MSL is showing favouritism for whatever reason. I hope it’s valid.

I hope it’s because Monty has built up better calluses toward the media and a loss will be better handled by Monty. Maybe the media would be down MSLs throat if he plays the rookie goalie and loses… Go with the veteran and no one is criticized. 

 

Sometimes you got to dance with the date that brought you to the dance, even though there are better looking girls on the dance floor.

 

Either way I hope we keep getting points and I hope Doby is ready when it’s his turn to dance.

 

 

 

[alfredoh2009]

40 minutes ago, Butterface said:

https://awinninghabit.com/pierre-mcguire-believes-canadiens-rookie-goaltender-has-a-problem-with-his-game
 

give me a break… I remembered it wrong in my last post… the 3rd and 4th goals were power play… the 3rd goal was a cross crease no chance. The fourth goal was a high tip no chance (but the puck went in low in net). The first two goals were Doby playing the puck and though blame could be put on him for those, both goals went above pad and below blocker (not high). The fifth goal was the 5 second overtime where he was beaten high glove (this was only high goal)… but a very good shot. A perfect one.

 

Of those shots on goal he only had one that went in high and it was a breakaway and very quick and a perfect shot.

 

Dobes has better stats per 60 than Monty…not sure why Dobes isn’t playing… but I don’t think it’s because there is a book on him.

 

It might be that this is Monty’s team and Monty’s net to lose and a respect team seniority thing. It might be a where you were born thing. But it can’t be stats of a goals saved above expected per 60 thing. Which is the only fair stat vs stat comparison of two goalies. If it were Dobes would have the net.

 

I’m sure (I hope) MSL has a plan in all this. Because if as a back-up goalie you don’t feel respected or worse the coach gives the goalie a no confidence feeling … as a goalie you get performance anxiety and it does affect your play. Hopefully Doby doesn’t get down like I assume Primeau did, but Doby shouldn’t as his record is better than Primeau’s and his stats are better per 60 than Monty’s. I worry Dobes will get cold or worse lose confidence without being played or given confidence.

 

Again I hope MSL knows what he is doing. I was pretty peeved on how the games/goalies were being deployed just before the 4 nations… but have obviously no complaints after. Monty was playing very very well before these last starts. Doby had an amazing game in Calgary (but lost 1-0) and an average game in Seattle where he kept his tired back to back team in it in the first period… had a great second period too… then the team got into penalty issues and the fiasco in over time. 
 

None of it because there is a book on Doby.

 

McGuire is full of %$#@.

MSL is showing favouritism for whatever reason. I hope it’s valid.

I hope it’s because Monty has built up better calluses toward the media and a loss will be better handled by Monty. Maybe the media would be down MSLs throat if he plays the rookie goalie and loses… Go with the veteran and no one is criticized. 

 

Sometimes you got to dance with the date that brought you to the dance, even though there are better looking girls on the dance floor.

 

Either way I hope we keep getting points and I hope Doby is ready when it’s his turn to dance.

 

 

 

 

yeah but, please tell us, how do you really feel ?

 

🤪

[xXx..CK..xXx]

St. Louis is playing Montembeault because the Habs are in a playoff race and he’s the starting goalie. It’s happening around the league, not just with us. Vejmelka has played 13 games in a row with Utah still technically alive. Granted, Ingram has been injured for them. 
 

The only moment the topic came up was this Saturday, and St. Louis has chosen to start Montembeault at home much more often and Dobeš on the road. Dobeš has only started one home game on a Saturday this year. 
 

Dobeš played his first game at home against the Rangers, which was the second leg of a back to back. New Jersey the following Saturday which was an overtime loss, and Dobeš’ only Saturday night home game. He then played Minnesota at home and lost 4-0, and finally Tampa Bay at home on a Sunday, which was once again the second leg of a back to back, where Dobeš was pulled. Since he was pulled, he hasn’t played at home again. I’m not saying whether or not I agree with that, I am simply stating a fact. 
 

Since then, (the very game before Dobeš got pulled) Montembeault hasn’t lost a game in regulation.

 

The only things that stand out to me when it comes to Dobeš are:

 

1) He has made some mistakes playing the puck, even though I like having a goalie that plays the puck in general.

 

2) He got pulled last home game he played.

 

3) He has a 1-3-2 record since his 5-0-0 start (would be 1-4-2 if Montemebault didn’t get the loss where Dobeš was pulled)

 

 

Combine that with the reality that Montembeault hasn’t lost in regulation in a month and a half.

 

I don’t really think he’s not being played because there’s a book out on him. There’s a book out on everyone, really. It’s simply the reality that Montembeault is the starting goalie and we are in a heavily contested playoff position. If we were 6 points lower in the standings, Dobeš may have had one more start throughout the last slew of games. With that being said, he’ll get one of the next few games considering the schedule and points will be just as important for us. So he’s not being benched simply because there is a book out on him. St. Louis is simply going with his and his team’s man, given the situation.
 

 

[tomh009]

From yesterday's Athletic article:

 

“We’re not here without Montembeault,” St. Louis said before the Avalanche game. “This is not the time of year for sending messages. Our group has a lot of confidence, they know I believe in them and I believe in Monty. We’re not here without him.”

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I'm a Monty defender, but I don't like riding a guy as though he's Carey Price when nothing in his career history suggests that he's that kind of player. I'd play Dobes now and then even in these high-stakes games.

 

That said, I agree that MSL is acting like a typical coach in this regard. Generally coaches have 'their guy' when it's crunch time, and it's usually a veteran. This applies both to G and regular position players, really. Still, I disagree with this approach in this case. Hopefully Monty proves me wrong.

[BCHabnut]

Josh Anderson has reinvented his game this year. He has been snake bitten on the scoreboard, but has certainly improved his overall game. If he was making 3 to 4 million, I bet he would be a fan favorite. It's been one of the pleasant surprises for me this season. 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

2 hours ago, BCHabnut said:

Josh Anderson has reinvented his game this year. He has been snake bitten on the scoreboard, but has certainly improved his overall game. If he was making 3 to 4 million, I bet he would be a fan favorite. It's been one of the pleasant surprises for me this season. 

 

I love the guy, as a player if not a contract. He is easily one of the toughest Habs to play against, night in and night out. And apparently he's done it while playing through a lot of stuff this season. You have to take your hat off to him.

[Prime Minister Koivu]

I've complained about Montreal’s lack of forecheck lately and I don’t know where it has gone but the Habs need it back. 
 

Guhle is quoted in the article about our forecheck too. 

[BCHabnut]

The team has had 2 great winning streaks, 1 or 2 periods of 5 to 10 games where they were acceptable and 2 horrible losing streaks, including the terrible start. Through most of this, the first line has done their job. In the first winning streak, Dobes, Monty, Laine's PP shot and the 4th line got them the extra help to put together a run. In the 2nd streaks, the 1st line was sensational, Monty played great and the dvorak line added secondary scoring. At no time this season, has the 2nd line provided any threat 5 on 5. I want a 2nd line centre.  Its a need either way, but do spend big on a 2nd c and hope Monty can improve his consistency,  or do you spend less on centre and look for goaltending help? I lean toward the good centre.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

53 minutes ago, BCHabnut said:

The team has had 2 great winning streaks, 1 or 2 periods of 5 to 10 games where they were acceptable and 2 horrible losing streaks, including the terrible start. Through most of this, the first line has done their job. In the first winning streak, Dobes, Monty, Laine's PP shot and the 4th line got them the extra help to put together a run. In the 2nd streaks, the 1st line was sensational, Monty played great and the dvorak line added secondary scoring. At no time this season, has the 2nd line provided any threat 5 on 5. I want a 2nd line centre.  Its a need either way, but do spend big on a 2nd c and hope Monty can improve his consistency,  or do you spend less on centre and look for goaltending help? I lean toward the good centre.

 

I'm not worried about G. Least of our problems.

 

My priorities:

 

1. #2C

2. A capable bottom-pairing RD

3. Quality bottom-6 LW

 

On (1), would the Isles have any interest in shopping Bo Horvat? I don't know what the return would be, but he'd be just what the doctor ordered.

[xXx..CK..xXx]

1 hour ago, BCHabnut said:

The team has had 2 great winning streaks, 1 or 2 periods of 5 to 10 games where they were acceptable and 2 horrible losing streaks, including the terrible start. Through most of this, the first line has done their job. In the first winning streak, Dobes, Monty, Laine's PP shot and the 4th line got them the extra help to put together a run. In the 2nd streaks, the 1st line was sensational, Monty played great and the dvorak line added secondary scoring. At no time this season, has the 2nd line provided any threat 5 on 5. I want a 2nd line centre.  Its a need either way, but do spend big on a 2nd c and hope Monty can improve his consistency,  or do you spend less on centre and look for goaltending help? I lean toward the good centre.

When it comes to the center position on the team, we have Nick Suzuki who is 16th in points per game in the NHL, and then Jake Evans at 113th. All of Dvorak, Dach, and Newhook are lower than that.

 

We can hope that Dach performs up to expectation but at this point, that’s all it is, hope. I think perhaps both he and Newhook are more suited to be third line center, or second line/third line wing from time to time.

 

I think it’s correct to state that we should be looking for a second line center as a primary “concern”.
 

When it comes to goaltending, Montembeault is tied for 28th in the league in save percentage. 7 of the goalies ahead of him are clearly backups or 1b on their team which puts him in the bottom third of the league, or around 20th.  
 

Goals saved above expected per 60 is similar. He is 27th in the league but we can ignore a good 7-8 goalies above him who barely played any games so he hovers around 20th in the league.

 

Goals against average is the worst stat for him at 36 (again with about 14 goalies ahead of him who are backups or 1a). Placing him once again around 20th. 
 

Overall, the Habs as a team have the 6th most goals against the league. Even if the season ended and we didn’t let any more goals in during our final 10 games, our goals against would hover around 3 goals against per game with 244 goals already having been scored against us.

 

Pittsburgh, Chicago, San Jose, Philadelphia and Buffalo are the only teams worse than us.

 

Jarry, Knight/Mrazek, Georgiev, Ersson, Reimer/Pekka-Luukkonen

 

Do any of those goalies instil confidence in winning a cup for any given team? Even Colorado let Georgiev go this season.

 

Montembeault is the goalie of the next team on the list. Granted, Primeau (and Dobeš) played a role when it comes to our goals against, and the other teams as well are a combination of starting goalie, team defense and backup goalie when it comes to the stats.

 

As stated, I am aware that many of the statistics I brought up are team statistics. Montembeault fans don’t have to point that out. I am aware of that. Ask any unbiased person to rank goaltenders in the NHL though, and Montembeault will hover around that 20th spot. 
 

When we had Carey Price, (some) people wanted to trade him so that we could have a more balanced attack and a team that didn’t simply rely on their goaltender to steal games. They pointed to the “Michael Leightons” of the world who were able to carry (no pun intended) their teams to the final despite having mediocre stats because the rest of the team was of high quality.
 

Montembeault is not Leighton, but I personally have a hard time believing that we’ll win a cup any time soon with him as our starting goaltender, and in order to do so, our team in front of him is going to have to be phenomenal. 
 

I am obviously not that high on Montembeault but I also understand that goaltending in general is currently not up to the same standard as it has been in the past. Whereas .925 used to be a respectable save percentage, that number might be closer to .905 or .910 in the modern NHL. Goaltender save percentage continues to drop every year. 
 

This is all to say, I personally would have searching for a goaltender in the back of my mind, whether or not it is a priority. There aren’t as many top tier goalies anymore though, so that does present a problem. Even Jake Allen has some of the best stats in the league in certain categories and we witnessed him with our team. Finding a top tier goalie through trade or free agency would take some extreme finesse, and is much less likely than the ability to add a second line center. 

[tomh009]

5 hours ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

When it comes to goaltending, Montembeault is tied for 28th in the league in save percentage. 7 of the goalies ahead of him are clearly backups or 1b on their team which puts him in the bottom third of the league, or around 20th.  
 

Goals saved above expected per 60 is similar. He is 27th in the league but we can ignore a good 7-8 goalies above him who barely played any games so he hovers around 20th in the league.

GSAx/60 is 0.285, 12th among NHL starters (I used a minimum of 40 games). And Dostal, in 5th on that list, is 0.389, only 0.1 more goals saved per game. GAA is meaningless, and save percentage is still far less useful than GSAx.

 

Montembeault is the least of our problems.

 

[xXx..CK..xXx]

16 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

GSAx/60 is 0.285, 12th among NHL starters (I used a minimum of 40 games). And Dostal, in 5th on that list, is 0.389, only 0.1 more goals saved per game. GAA is meaningless, and save percentage is still far less useful than GSAx.

 

Montembeault is the least of our problems.

 

That’s fine but you chose 40 games for a reason.

 

 

This is where he actually is. Ullmark, Talbot and Woll have all been starters for a large part of their seasons. I don’t see why we would just ignore them. I did mention that a bunch of goalies ahead of him shouldn’t count so place him 15-20. 12th is also skewed.

People like Montembeault and that’s fine. At times he’s grown on me as well. I’m not sure he’s the least of our problems though. That’s just coming from people who like him and defend him. He’s not the least of our problems when he lets in extremely soft goals as well, only maybe because people make excuses for why he does in the first place. 
 

It’s also a bit tiresome when people have to defend their use of statistics. There are flaws with goals saved above expected just as there are with save percentage. Fine, it’s more modern and perhaps more accurate but there’s a reason a goalie like Hellebuyck has a .910 even in a down season or Shesterkin has a .906 in his worst season, whereas Montembeault has a .903 in his best season and an .898 over his career. Or if you want to go closer to home, a reason why Price was able to have a .912 even when the Habs had a terrible record. 
 

Montembeault is fine, but he’s not the least of our problems and although an upgrade is not likely, it would be nice.

[tomh009]

Sure, you can use 35 games instead and drop Montembeault to 15. But his GSAx/60 is still only 0.1 behind Dostal in #5, which means that a substantial improvement would be quite difficult. Picking up a Hellebuyck, Shesterkin or Thompson would not be cheap.

 

As for allowing some soft goals (and making additional hard saves) doesn't really matter to me: what matters is the total number of goals, whether soft or hard.

 

Save percentage and especially GAA are highly impacted by the defence in front of the goalie. That's why GSAx is a much better metric in evaluating the goaltender as an individual player.

[xXx..CK..xXx]

 

50 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

As for allowing some soft goals (and making additional hard saves) doesn't really matter to me: what matters is the total number of goals, whether soft or hard.

Yup, and Montembeault has let in the 3rd most goals in the league. His goals against average is 36th in the league amongst goalies that have played a minimum of 28 games (NHL.com’s default number of games).

 

The Habs are a borderline playoff team this season. It’s not like they are bottom of the league to have such a negative impact on Montembeault’s statistics.

 

Goals saved above expected are also affected by team dynamic. 
 

Despite what I said about them being a playoff team, they have faced the second most high danger shots in the NHL. With more “opportunity” to make saves against these high danger chances, more goals that were “expected” to go in will be saved and inflate that statistic. That stat can be skewed as well. There’s no perfect stat, but I think we can all judge them for ourselves and take from them what we will. If Shesterkin and Montembeault have each let in 149 goals but Momtembeault has a .899 save percentage and Shesterkin has a .906, one goalie is clearly better than the other. Again, it’s not like the Rangers have been a vastly superior team to the Habs. 
 

Montembeault is alright, but I don’t think management should overlook acquiring another goalie. He’s not the least of our worries in my opinion. If he can’t handle the workload, let’s look for someone who can…. Or at the very least someone who could aid him.

 

 

[Commandant]

5 hours ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

 

Yup, and Montembeault has let in the 3rd most goals in the league. His goals against average is 36th in the league amongst goalies that have played a minimum of 28 games (NHL.com’s default number of games).

 

The Habs are a borderline playoff team this season. It’s not like they are bottom of the league to have such a negative impact on Montembeault’s statistics.

 

Goals saved above expected are also affected by team dynamic. 
 

Despite what I said about them being a playoff team, they have faced the second most high danger shots in the NHL. With more “opportunity” to make saves against these high danger chances, more goals that were “expected” to go in will be saved and inflate that statistic. That stat can be skewed as well. There’s no perfect stat, but I think we can all judge them for ourselves and take from them what we will. If Shesterkin and Montembeault have each let in 149 goals but Momtembeault has a .899 save percentage and Shesterkin has a .906, one goalie is clearly better than the other. Again, it’s not like the Rangers have been a vastly superior team to the Habs. 
 

Montembeault is alright, but I don’t think management should overlook acquiring another goalie. He’s not the least of our worries in my opinion. If he can’t handle the workload, let’s look for someone who can…. Or at the very least someone who could aid him.

 

 

Thats not how GSAx works.  Things dont get inflated by having s poor defence in front of you.

 

In fact, having more shots and more high danger shots shows why Montembault is more fatigued than other goalies who have played the same number of games

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Montembault’s critics use a lot of motivated reasoning IMHO, but what do I know.

 

Monty should not really be booked for more than 50 games per season, and would therefore be better with a Kevin Lankinen type - rock solid 1A - platooning with him. Is such a player worth trading assets for, or using cap space on, given the organizational situation at G? I suspect not. I wouldn’t rend my garment if HuGo go that route, but I think we should have other priorities.

 

As I see this team, when it comes to the back end, the more pressing need is to level up the blueline and defensive structure. MSL made major headway this year when it comes to systems and structure, so presumably we can keep building on that.

 

Following the “weakest link” philosophy that I consistently find helpful with this iteration of the Habs, what we absolutely must do is improve on the bottom end of the D-corps. Meanwhile Dobes has another year to work on his game, as does Fowler. 

 

Solidify the defensive personnel and structure. Then see where we are at G. 

 

[xXx..CK..xXx]

5 hours ago, Commandant said:

Thats not how GSAx works.  Things dont get inflated by having s poor defence in front of you.

 

In fact, having more shots and more high danger shots shows why Montembault is more fatigued than other goalies who have played the same number of games

I definitely think GSAx is a more accurate measure of goalie performance than save percentage, I simply disagree that save percentage is fully a team stat. With that being said, just like there are flaws with save percentage, there are some flaws with GSAx. If a team allows more high danger shots, like the Habs do, the goalie has more “opportunity” to save goals that were expected to go in, even say, if the player shoots that high danger chance right in to the goalie’s chest. If a team is allowing a lot of high danger chances, their team defense can obviously come into question. Of course, credit should be given to the goalie for stopping high danger chances when they arise. I agree with that. Thus, to my mind both GSAx as well as save percentage are individual statistics than can be affected by team play.

 

27 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Montembault’s critics use a lot of motivated reasoning IMHO, but what do I know.

 

Monty should not really be booked for more than 50 games per season, and would therefore be better with a Kevin Lankinen type - rock solid 1A - platooning with him. Is such a player worth trading assets for, or using cap space on, given the organizational situation at G? I suspect not. I wouldn’t rend my garment if HuGo go that route, but I think we should have other priorities.

 

As I see this team, when it comes to the back end, the more pressing need is to level up the blueline and defensive structure. MSL made major headway this year when it comes to systems and structure, so presumably we can keep building on that.

 

Following the “weakest link” philosophy that I consistently find helpful with this iteration of the Habs, what we absolutely must do is improve on the bottom end of the D-corps. Meanwhile Dobes has another year to work on his game, as does Fowler. 

 

Solidify the defensive personnel and structure. Then see where we are at G. 

 

I get the impression that I am asking the question to a fairly obvious answer but I am genuinely asking, what motivated reasoning? Personally, I would love for Montembeault to do well and am not arguing against him in order to prove any point. I have personally never thought that highly of him simply from my observation of his play, though he does make some great saves from time to time. 
 

Also, I won’t be long winded with this statement but my opinion is that just because a goaltender has never played x amount of games, this does not necessarily mean he should be fatigued playing x amount of games.

 

The reason Montembeault never played in more than x amount of games before was because he was a backup, or 1b. This year he was our starter, and the expectation should have been for him to play more games. I agree that the modern NHL has more tandems than in the past, but stating that he should only be played in a tandem, is admitting a slight deficiency when comparing him to the top starting goalies in the league. I would also be fine with a tandem that involves Montembeault, but the team already had that and moved away from that, and also that will leave the opportunity for Montembeault to once again be a backup, or a 1b once again, instead of the guy. Also, should we go that route, as much as I love Dobeš, as a rookie, he’s not the guy yet to be a tandem with Montembeault. We’d have to go out and find someone.

[Commandant]

You are making the assumption that more high danger shots means it will be easier.  That these will get fired into his chest. 

 

There is no evidence of that.  There is no evidence that a higher percentage of Montembault's high danger shots are shot at him than a goalie with a good defence.   Just none. 

 

Its just an assumption you came up with but there is no actual evidence that more high danger shots will mean lower quality shooters..... none at all. 

 

As CC says, its motivated reasoning, its not actual numbers. 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

By "motivated reasoning," I mean that some people never liked Montembault (perhaps because his provenance is so sketchy) and feed everything through that narrative.

 

My take on Monty is more straightforward. Eye-test stuff. Since the day he arrived, despite being a waiver pickup, he has generally made the saves a goalie supposed to make and frequently made breathtaking saves that bail the team out. In other words, he's provided solid #1G netminding. I would never position him as a Price-like. He's good, not great. But arguing that he's not good just seems like a lot of work to deny the evidence of our eyes IMHO.

[xXx..CK..xXx]

3 hours ago, Commandant said:

You are making the assumption that more high danger shots means it will be easier.  That these will get fired into his chest. 

 

There is no evidence of that.  There is no evidence that a higher percentage of Montembault's high danger shots are shot at him than a goalie with a good defence.   Just none. 

 

Its just an assumption you came up with but there is no actual evidence that more high danger shots will mean lower quality shooters..... none at all. 

 

As CC says, its motivated reasoning, its not actual numbers. 

I don’t know why you misinterpret what I say and then build a whole argument around that misinterpretation.

 

It would be ridiculous to assume that all high danger chances are poor quality shots. What I am saying is that high danger chances mainly consider the location on the ice.
 

If a team is poor defensively and allows a lot of shots against from dangerous areas, then the goalie will have to face a lot of high danger chances and his expected goals against will be high. Even if he makes a save that was shot in his chest, he will gain points in the xGA area. If another goalie faces less high danger chances because of strong team play, he won’t have as much “opportunity” to raise his xGA as goalie A. 
 

Of course goalies will have to make amazing saves from high danger areas and they deserve credit for that. I am sure a substantial amount of Montembeault’s as well as other goalies have been difficult saves from these high danger areas. That’s not really my point.

 

2 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

By "motivated reasoning," I mean that some people never liked Montembault (perhaps because his provenance is so sketchy) and feed everything through that narrative.

 

My take on Monty is more straightforward. Eye-test stuff. Since the day he arrived, despite being a waiver pickup, he has generally made the saves a goalie supposed to make and frequently made breathtaking saves that bail the team out. In other words, he's provided solid #1G netminding. I would never position him as a Price-like. He's good, not great. But arguing that he's not good just seems like a lot of work to deny the evidence of our eyes IMHO.

Yeah but that’s just totally opinionated. I am basing my opinion on Montembeault entirely from the eye test and I lean in the other direction. Sometimes I use statistics to back up a point but I have no reason to wish ill on Montembeault. I want to think highly of him. I think he has had stretches that were solid this year but he is mediocre at times and simply not consistent, and I apologize if that is something I would like from our starting goaltender. 

 

I don’t agree that he has always made the saves he is supposed to. It’s an oversimplification from those who defend him.

 

I am not even going to discuss Price because comparing them is unfair. There is perhaps no active goalie quite at his level, though a few are arguable or close.

 

I’ve said before that Montembeault is okay. I’m not arguing he is terrible. I think he is mid to lower tier when compared to other starting goalies in the league, and a lot of completely unbiased people feel the same way, judging by yearly rankings of goaltenders, etc.

 

I don’t think it’s wrong to state that if we have a middle (to bottom) tier goalie, then we’re going to need a lot of help on the rest of the ice in order to compete once we make the playoffs. Especially when one considers only half the teams make the playoffs.