Permanent Trade Proposal Thread

[nihilz]

PLD

M. Barron

 

for

 

Dvorak

Hoffman(%50)

Kovacevic

Gurianov Rights

Ylonen Rights

COL 2nd 2024

 

This would be my big max for PLD. I welcome them to find a GM desperate enough to gamble on him and provide more. I think PLD has cut the legs off of the Jets ability to create a viable market.

[dlbalr]

5 minutes ago, nihilz said:

PLD

M. Barron

 

for

 

Dvorak

Hoffman(%50)

Kovacevic

Gurianov Rights

Ylonen Rights

COL 2nd 2024

 

This would be my big max for PLD. I welcome them to find a GM desperate enough to gamble on him and provide more. I think PLD has cut the legs off of the Jets ability to create a viable market.

 

If Dubois is available at the trade deadline, he'd get more than this package as a rental - it'd be a first-round pick, a good prospect, and something else just like lots of other top rentals get.  If they can fetch that, so can he so why should they take less than that now?  They need to get something of value to justify moving him this summer.  Otherwise, they'll wait and move him at the deadline.  I suspect at least five teams would easily beat this offer in the coming weeks with packages starting with first-round picks considering how bad the centre market is this year.  If he winds up in Montreal, it's going to be a package that's going to frustrate a lot of fans as they won't be moving him at a discounted rate.

[nihilz]

2 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

If Dubois is available at the trade deadline, he'd get more than this package as a rental - it'd be a first-round pick, a good prospect, and something else just like lots of other top rentals get.  If they can fetch that, so can he so why should they take less than that now?  They need to get something of value to justify moving him this summer.  Otherwise, they'll wait and move him at the deadline.  I suspect at least five teams would easily beat this offer in the coming weeks with packages starting with first-round picks considering how bad the centre market is this year.  If he winds up in Montreal, it's going to be a package that's going to frustrate a lot of fans as they won't be moving him at a discounted rate.

 

I disagree. I think we'll see him banished to Europe as an unqualified RFA before anyone other than the Habs trade for him.

[dlbalr]

5 minutes ago, nihilz said:

I disagree. I think we'll see him banished to Europe as an unqualified RFA before anyone other than the Habs trade for him.

 

You don't think a single team would have interest in him as a one-year rental?  Lots of teams trade for guys they know they can't sign beyond that season so why is his case any different?  It's also worth noting that while Dubois' desired destination may be Montreal, it's not necessarily Montreal or bust. 

 

And there's no way he's going unqualified so your banished to Europe scenario will never happen.  Winnipeg will qualify him and based on what's come out lately, they'll file club-elected arbitration to force a contract and take away the offer sheet threat.  And when a bunch of teams look at their rosters and see a top-six centre on a short-term deal, they'll offer accordingly.  His reported desire to to Montreal will scare some teams off but certainly not all of them.

 

 

[tomh009]

So, the Jets can do the arbitration option ... but Dubois can refuse to sign, right? Would that impact his trade value?

[dlbalr]

59 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

So, the Jets can do the arbitration option ... but Dubois can refuse to sign, right? Would that impact his trade value?

 

Dubois can't refuse to sign in that situation, it's a binding contract.  Nor can the Jets walk away if the award isn't to their liking.  It impacts his value in the sense that there becomes a hard deadline for a trade if the acquiring team wants to work out a long-term deal.  Otherwise, if a team is looking at him strictly as a rental, it doesn't do much one way or the other.

[tomh009]

37 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

Dubois can't refuse to sign in that situation, it's a binding contract.  Nor can the Jets walk away if the award isn't to their liking.  It impacts his value in the sense that there becomes a hard deadline for a trade if the acquiring team wants to work out a long-term deal.  Otherwise, if a team is looking at him strictly as a rental, it doesn't do much one way or the other.

What's the difference with the Nylander case? Didn't he refuse to sign the contract? Or did he sign and just not report?

[dlbalr]

26 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

What's the difference with the Nylander case? Didn't he refuse to sign the contract? Or did he sign and just not report?

 

Post-ELC for Nylander, wasn't arbitration eligible.  His was a straight holdout.  Theoretically, if neither side filed for arbitration, Dubois' case could hit that point (I don't see it coming to that, however).

[tomh009]

So, Pat Brisson (Dubois’ agent) apparently met with Cheveldayoff and told him that Dubois has no intention of playing for the Jets next season.

 

Dubois submitted a list of six teams that he’d be willing to consider a sign and trade with. And Brisson is looking for an 8x9 contract.

 

So, not only Montreal. And $9M expectation plus the assets that the Jets want. Is he worth that, really? He’s never hit 65 points yet. At those demands, I’d rather pursue DeBrincat, who has scored 41 goals twice.

[Helmethead]

39 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

So, Pat Brisson (Dubois’ agent) apparently met with Cheveldayoff and told him that Dubois has no intention of playing for the Jets next season.

 

Dubois submitted a list of six teams that he’d be willing to consider a sign and trade with. And Brisson is looking for an 8x9 contract.

 

So, not only Montreal. And $9M expectation plus the assets that the Jets want. Is he worth that, really? He’s never hit 65 points yet. At those demands, I’d rather pursue DeBrincat, who has scored 41 goals twice.

I’d almost rather try and swing a deal with the devil (the leafs) who are in a dire position and need to do something. 

[dlbalr]

49 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

Dubois submitted a list of six teams that he’d be willing to consider a sign and trade with. And Brisson is looking for an 8x9 contract.

 

So, not only Montreal. And $9M expectation plus the assets that the Jets want. Is he worth that, really? He’s never hit 65 points yet. At those demands, I’d rather pursue DeBrincat, who has scored 41 goals twice.

 

If you're referring to The Athletic post, the 8x$9M was speculation, not necessarily what the actual asking price is.

[GHT120]

6 hours ago, dlbalr said:

Counter-offer: Claim Lavoie on waivers in October...

 

That of course then uses up a contract slot ... but more than fair points.

[tomh009]

1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

If you're referring to The Athletic post, the 8x$9M was speculation, not necessarily what the actual asking price is.

My bad, I overlooked the part that this was the writers' projection.

 

If Cheveldayoff is unable to make a deal to ship out Dubois before the draft, though, could an offer sheet work? 1st/2nd/3rd for a 7x8 contract seems more reasonable.

[GHT120]

Just now, tomh009 said:

My bad, I overlooked the part that this was the writers' projection.

 

If Cheveldayoff is unable to make a deal to ship out Dubois before the draft, though, could an offer sheet work? 1st/2nd/3rd for a 7x8 contract seems more reasonable.

6/7 year offer sheets average the total value of the contract over 5 yrs for compensatioon purposes ... so 7x8 is considered as if it were an $11.2M offer (7x8=56; 56/5 = 11.2) ... Four 1st round picks

[tomh009]

7 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

6/7 year offer sheets average the total value of the contract over 5 yrs for compensatioon purposes ... so 7x8 is considered as if it were an $11.2M offer (7x8=56; 56/5 = 11.2) ... Four 1st round picks

Forgot about that rule! So it would need to be 5x8, which is not ideal as we likely wouldn't be contending until the final few years of the contract.

[dlbalr]

55 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

My bad, I overlooked the part that this was the writers' projection.

 

If Cheveldayoff is unable to make a deal to ship out Dubois before the draft, though, could an offer sheet work? 1st/2nd/3rd for a 7x8 contract seems more reasonable.

 

Notwithstanding GHT's note above, there's a big risk to him signing a long-term offer sheet - what if Winnipeg matched?  Then, all of a sudden, he's locked in long-term with the team he doesn't want to be with. 

 

If there's an offer sheet coming his way, it'll be with no arbitration filing on either side followed by a one-year offer of roughly $6.435M (the top of the tier for a first-round pick and a third-rounder).  If Winnipeg matches, they lose the ability to trade Dubois since offer sheeted players can't be moved for a year, which means they lose him for nothing in free agency.  If they don't match, they only get a first and a third in a return and, well, you know where I stand already on what I think his trade value is.  I think they wouldn't be happy with that outcome either.

[hab29RETIRED]

1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

My bad, I overlooked the part that this was the writers' projection.

 

If Cheveldayoff is unable to make a deal to ship out Dubois before the draft, though, could an offer sheet work? 1st/2nd/3rd for a 7x8 contract seems more reasonable.

I can’t see PLD signing a contract that he thinks the jets will match.

[Helmethead]

10 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

Notwithstanding GHT's note above, there's a big risk to him signing a long-term offer sheet - what if Winnipeg matched?  Then, all of a sudden, he's locked in long-term with the team he doesn't want to be with. 

 

If there's an offer sheet coming his way, it'll be with no arbitration filing on either side followed by a one-year offer of roughly $6.435M (the top of the tier for a first-round pick and a third-rounder).  If Winnipeg matches, they lose the ability to trade Dubois since offer sheeted players can't be moved for a year, which means they lose him for nothing in free agency.  If they don't match, they only get a first and a third in a return and, well, you know where I stand already on what I think his trade value is.  I think they wouldn't be happy with that outcome either.

that would be a sneaky sneaky move 

[dlbalr]

2 minutes ago, Helmethead said:

that would be a sneaky sneaky move 

 

It's one that I think Carolina might be gearing up for, a team that has a definite 2C hole, is in win-now mode, and knows they can only afford a one-year rental.  Plus, having succeeding at one already, they're not going to be afraid to try again.  If Dubois doesn't get his way early in talks, this could be a possible fallback plan and get a possible soft landing on an up-tempo team that could give him a boost heading into UFA status in 2024.

[Helmethead]

7 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

It's one that I think Carolina might be gearing up for, a team that has a definite 2C hole, is in win-now mode, and knows they can only afford a one-year rental.  Plus, having succeeding at one already, they're not going to be afraid to try again.  If Dubois doesn't get his way early in talks, this could be a possible fallback plan and get a possible soft landing on an up-tempo team that could give him a boost heading into UFA status in 2024.

For what it’s worth Brian, if I ever get my hands on an NHL team I’m hiring you. 
 

And I’m not kidding. 

[tomh009]

And that's yet more pressure on Cheveldayoff to get a deal done before the draft, to avoid this scenario (or even the multi-year offer sheet for that matter).

[TurdBurglar]

I doubt the offersheet situation is even a concern.  I would bet on the offersheet to be under $8.58 AAV as above it would be 2 firsts, a second and a third round pick, while under would be a first, second and third. As pointed out, if he accepts an offersheet, Winnipeg can match.  They don't necessarily have to keep him either.  As now he has a contract therefore a very stable value.  With a contract, especially a multi-year contract, Winnipeg can get better value than a first, second and third.  Not to mention the picks would likely be from a current bubble or playoff team making them mid-to-late round picks anyway.

 

If the offersheet is 8x8.5, for example, Winnipeg could easily get a top prospect, a roster player and a pick/prospect/roster player for Dubois alone.

[tomh009]

The picks would be from Winnipeg, there is no option to use another team's picks.

 

As discussed above, the offer sheet would be unlikely to be for more than five (or maybe six) years.

[DON]

Does Suzuki-Caufield salary likely limit the potential offer to Dubois?

Or might they antee up $7.90- to-9m/yr for the right player this off-season (like a Dubois, or proven young'ish' RH d-man)

[GHT120]

15 minutes ago, DON said:

Does Suzuki-Caufield salary likely limit the potential offer to Dubois?

Or might they antee up $7.90- to-9m/yr for the right player this off-season (like a Dubois, or proven young'ish' RH d-man)

The "Suzuki ceiling" is (IMO) for second contracts (i.e., after ELC), which was the case with CC and NS ... unless it is a sign and trade, I expect PLD would sign a (wink, wink) ONE year contract for around Suzuki money and then cash-in with an 8-yr deal sometime after the trade deadline next season ... a reverse "KK".