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2021 Habs Free Agents: Who goes? Who stays? What's the price?


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UFAs:

 

Corey Perry

Joel Armia - re-signed for 4 years, 3.4 AAV

Philip Danault

Eric Staal

Tomas Tatar

John Merrill

Erik Gustafsson

 

Michael  Frolik

Jordan Weal (signed in KHL)

Alex Belzile - re-signed 1 year, two way deal

Gustav Olafsson

Charlie Lindgren

 

RFAs (* arbitration eligible):

 

Artturi Lehkonen* (QO received)

Jesperi Kotkaniemi (QO received)

 

Joseph Blandisi*

Michael Pezzetta (QO received)

Ryan Poehling (QO received)

Jacob Lucchini* - re-signed 1 year AHL deal

Otto Leskinen* (signed in Europe)(QO received)

Cale Fleury (Expansion Draft Fodder)

Michael McNiven* (QO received)

 

I will keep this list updated as signings happen.

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14 hours ago, Trizzak said:

UFAs:

 

Corey Perry ... 3 years @ $800K (new 35+ rules allow player to retire sans cap hit) ... sign of respect more than expectation of it being completed ... can be buried if necessary

 

Joel Armia ... 4th line TOI in playoffs ... coming off a $2.6M contract that is (IMO) already too rich for that role ... tough to re-sign and have a well-balanced cap ... likely choice between Joel or Lehkonen 

 

Philip Danault ... 3 years @ $4M ... defence is only worth so much ... role is no longer to also play with best offensive wingers

Eric Staal

Tomas Tatar

John Merrill

Erik Gustafsson

Michael  Frolik

Jordan Weal

Alex Belzile ... think he looks for a team offering a better path to the NHL

Gustav Olafsson ... offer two-way deal to be a Rocket ... if he wants it

Charlie Lindgren

 

RFAs (* arbitration eligible):

 

Artturi Lehkonen* ... 2 yrs@$2.6M ... if MB/DD's plan is for him as 3rd liner ... ... likely choice between Armia or Artturi

Jesperi Kotkaniemi ... bridge deal ... too much unknown ... big risk for Habs to offer term and higher money ... big risk for KK to accept term and lower money

 

Joseph Blandisi* ... ???

Michael Pezzetta ... ???

Ryan Poehling ... 2yrs@$975K - 1M ... two-way(?)

Jacob Lucchini* ... ???

Otto Leskinen* (signed in Europe)

Cale Fleury ... 2yrs@$950K ... two-way

Michael McNiven* ... 1yr@$750K ... two-way

 

I will keep this list updated as signings happen.

Ok ... took my shot above at what I would do

??? = no idea what they should do

two-way means a lower AHL salary

strikethrough means thank you for your services

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A quick clarification Re: Perry and the 35+ rule, that rule does still exist.  However, it simply provides an exception that says if the year-to-year salary stays the same, the 35+ provision won't apply.  Otherwise, the same potential cap penalties are in place.  In your proposed offer, the salary would have to be uniform without signing bonuses for the exception to apply.

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39 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

A quick clarification Re: Perry and the 35+ rule, that rule does still exist.  However, it simply provides an exception that says if the year-to-year salary stays the same, the 35+ provision won't apply.  Otherwise, the same potential cap penalties are in place.  In your proposed offer, the salary would have to be uniform without signing bonuses for the exception to apply.

That is what I was thinking ... or even $775/$800/$825 ... as you undoubtedly know, the cap hit also disappears with retirement if the salary increases each season (i.e., no cap advantage from the contract being front-loaded). 

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1 hour ago, GHT120 said:

Ok ... took my shot above at what I would do

??? = no idea what they should do

two-way means a lower AHL salary

strikethrough means thank you for your services


I don’t know about the actual salaries suggested here but it means we have very little cap space unless Drouin or another salary comes off the books. 
 

We up the RFAs and sign Armia, Perry, Danault and we are looking at 1-2 million left. 
 

When it comes to Danault I’m all over the place. Sometimes I’m thinking 3.5 per year then I consider his original offer of 5.5 million and think that’s what he gets. 
 

Danault 5.5

Armia 3.5

Perry 1

KK 2 

Lehkonen 3

 

That wipes out the cap

 

I’m sure my numbers are off but we don’t have much to play with unless Drouin or someone leaves

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Some team is going to give Armia 4M+ per year after this postseason.  I'd be very surprised to see him back, but I'm hoping the other big names can return at reasonable price tags.  We already have a few cap hits that exceed the player's production (Anderson, Gallagher, Weber, Price) so we can't afford many more.

 

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1 hour ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

 

I’m sure my numbers are off but we don’t have much to play with unless Drouin or someone leaves

 Well, SOMEONE will definitely be leaving in the expansion draft.

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43 minutes ago, huzer said:

 Well, SOMEONE will definitely be leaving in the expansion draft.


We still need to replace said player. If it is indeed Allen then we need to UFA a goalie that will cost about the same. 
 

Unless they take Drouin.

 

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I honestly can't see Drouin back with the team.  

 

I'll do my numbers for the FAs later, but I see Drouin traded, either for very little return and maybe us retaining some money, or for someone else's problem.

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3 hours ago, Neech said:

Some team is going to give Armia 4M+ per year after this postseason.  I'd be very surprised to see him back, but I'm hoping the other big names can return at reasonable price tags.  We already have a few cap hits that exceed the player's production (Anderson, Gallagher, Weber, Price) so we can't afford many more.

 

That would very much surprise me.  Armia basically was in the playoffs what he always is in the regular season.  That's not worth $4M in this cap environment.

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I think if Armia and Danault want too much let them walk. The problem i have with them is that when they go cold it's for a long time and you don't notice them out there. For that reason I don't want to over paid them to stay. Danault at 4-5mil yes anything over 5mil no. Armia at 1.5-2.5mil yes anything over no.  I feel that theirs a lot of good 3rd/4th line players out there on the free agency market that we can easily replace them for less and get more out put.

 

Perry and Staal I would bring back along with Lehkonen.  Kotkaniemi we need to resign and also Poehling. 

 

Like I had mentioned in the other post we need to find a way to get rid of Byron and Drouin contracts.  Hopefully we can talk Seattle into taking one of them. 

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27 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

That would very much surprise me.  Armia basically was in the playoffs what he always is in the regular season.  That's not worth $4M in this cap environment.

Yeah, if someone wants to pay that much, all the power to them. I already thing Byron is grossly overpaid, anything too much above $2.5m in a flat cap is just dumb for Armia.

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3 hours ago, Habsfan89 said:

I think if Armia and Danault want too much let them walk. The problem i have with them is that when they go cold it's for a long time and you don't notice them out there.

Kind of like … Toffoli? Gallagher? Tatar? Anderson?

 

Most scorers are streaky, and that comes with dry spells in addition to the hot streaks.

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Move on from all UFA’s. Dump Byron on Seattle and find a home for Drouin (Colorado). Free up money to go after scorers. The back end is good although aging. But scorers are the priority. Minimal contracts for RFA’s AL, KK, RP, and CF. They are a dime a dozen. Hopefully MB doesn’t let emotions of the Cup run blind his decisions. They need more scoring up front and have to find it or they may be in jeopardy of missing the playoffs next year. Only Suzuki, Tofoli, and Caufield are top six. It is what it is. Anderson is a 3rd liner, Gally is no more than that. Evans is a 4th liner. 

Edited by Longstreet
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Allen to Kraken. Tatar out, Caufield in. Danault out, Evans in. Let Staal & Armia walk sign Paquette & Brassard. Along with Poehling or Vejdemo for 4th line. Bring back Perry. Move Kulak+ to AZ for Adin Hill to backup Price. Move out Drouin with retention. Focus on Martinez & Hoffman 2yr deals.

 

Hoffman - Suzuki - Caufield

Toffoli - Kotkaniemi - Anderson

Byron - Evans - Gallagher

Paquette/Brassard/Poehling/Vejdemo/Lehkonen/Perry

 

 

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3 hours ago, Longstreet said:

Move on from all UFA’s. Dump Byron on Seattle and find a home for Drouin (Colorado). Free up money to go after scorers. The back end is good although aging. But scorers are the priority. Minimal contracts for RFA’s AL, KK, RP, and CF. They are a dime a dozen. Hopefully MB doesn’t let emotions of the Cup run blind his decisions. They need more scoring up front and have to find it or they may be in jeopardy of missing the playoffs next year. Only Suzuki, Tofoli, and Caufield are top six. It is what it is. Anderson is a 3rd liner, Gally is no more than that. Evans is a 4th liner. 

 

Gally is no more than a third liner?

 

KK is a dime a dozen?

 

Let all the UFAs go.

 

Ummm..... I don't even know what to answer to this. 

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6 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Anderson is a 3rd liner too, apparently, LOL. EVERYONE is a third-liner!! Let ‘em all walk!! 🤪

 

Habs have wingers who were on pace for 33 goals (Gallagher) over an 82 game season, and 27 goals (Anderson) as third liners.

 

60 goals from the third line wingers, shit... we must be the highest scoring team in the league.

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Also on top of the fact that Gallagher had a heavy defensive role in the playoffs, even more than what the Danault line does in the regular season; but even ignoring that, why are we looking at playoff stats for extrapolating how many he'd score in the regular season.  Scoring always goes down in the playoffs.

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18 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Also on top of the fact that Gallagher had a heavy defensive role in the playoffs, even more than what the Danault line does in the regular season; but even ignoring that, why are we looking at playoff stats for extrapolating how many he'd score in the regular season.  Scoring always goes down in the playoffs.

 

Well, I do think there are grounds for concern about Gally. It’s not that he is a third-liner (LOL). It’s that he keeps getting hurt and has been unproductive for two straight playoffs. Scoring may go down in the playoffs, but still, it’s reasonably to ask that your 30-goal scorer not to totally evaporate offensively in the crunch. In short, the question around him is not whether he is a “third liner” but whether he has sufficient durability, at this stage of his career, to be a guy we can realistically pencil in as a reliable offensive threat, or whether he will be too broken down to be able to live up to his own talent level. The cap hit compounds the concern. 

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11 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Well, I do think there are grounds for concern about Gally. It’s not that he is a third-liner (LOL). It’s that he keeps getting hurt and has been unproductive for two straight playoffs. Scoring may go down in the playoffs, but still, it’s reasonably to ask that your 30-goal scorer not to totally evaporate offensively in the crunch. In short, the question around him is not whether he is a “third liner” but whether he has sufficient durability, at this stage of his career, to be a guy we can realistically pencil in as a reliable offensive threat, or whether he will be too broken down to be able to live up to his own talent level. The cap hit compounds the concern. 

Agree ... but as I said elsewhere, that is likely at least a couple of years down the road ... at the moment, he is not (IMO) a cap concern nor should he be moved unless it is in a pure "hockey trade" (i.e., trade makes the team better).

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I think if you want him to produce in the playoffs, you take him off Danault's wing, and let Danault work with say Lehkonen and Byron or wingers like that.  That line is always gonna be defence first when you get into a series.  The other team is always gonna have that line we want to shut down, whether its the Bruins, Leafs, Tampa, Florida.  If we can make the playoffs, our opponent is going to have a significant line and there is gonna be even more emphasis on shutting them down than in the regular season. 

 

Maybe you move Gally to KK's wing.   Maybe Toffoli (or Anderson) - KK - Gally becomes a more offensive line.  

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Predictions

 

UFAs:

 

Corey Perry (2 years 1.5 million, the Simmonds contract)

Joel Armia (would love to have him back at 3m, but he gets more on the market and is gone)

Philip Danault (5 million AAV)

Eric Staal (gone)

Tomas Tatar (gone)

John Merrill (gone)

Erik Gustafsson (gone)

 

Michael  Frolik (gone)

Jordan Weal (gone to Russia)

Alex Belzile (NHL vet minimum, $700K)

Gustav Olafsson (gone)

Charlie Lindgren (gone)

 

RFAs (* arbitration eligible):

 

Artturi Lehkonen* (2 million)

Jesperi Kotkaniemi (2.million 1 year deal)

 

Joseph Blandisi* (back)

Michael Pezzetta (gone, not qualfied)

Ryan Poehling (back)

Jacob Lucchini* (back)

Otto Leskinen* (signed in Europe)

Cale Fleury (back)

Michael McNiven* (back)

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26 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Predictions

UFAs:

...

Philip Danault (5 million AAV)

...

Curious what term you would give Danault ... RNH took a $875K haircut from his previous $6M AAV to get 8 years ... if Habs give Danault $5M in the current marketplace it would IMO have to be short-term (2 yrs, 3 MAX).

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