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What goes around comes around Carolina pay back Kotkaniemi offer sheet


Habsfan89
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1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

 

If Dahlin was willing to sign for that money, he'd be under contract with Buffalo already.

 

Arizona's asking price is futures based, a 1st and a first-equivalent.  They also want to cut money.  Evans, Chiarot, and Armia combined make more than Dvorak and none of those are a first-round pick or a piece worth a first rounder.

 

 

As Kotkaniemi was a restricted free agent and thus could negotiate with other teams, Carolina could discuss the framework of a hypothetical long-term deal.  Can it be agreed on entirely?  Officially no but unofficially, it can basically be done.

 

 

The 85% piece is a CBA mechanism for club-elected salary arbitration (and can only be done once on a player).  A player can willingly agree to less than his qualifying offer and there is no limit on how big the drop can be. 

Chiarot  contract ends after this year and Armia is 1.5mil cheaper than Dvorak. Evans also.

 

Dahlin at 6mil is an over payment right now just like Kotkaniemi at 6mil is an over payment. I don't think buffalo wants Dahlin at 6mil other wise he would be signed right now and not still a UFA.

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3 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said:

... I don't think buffalo wants Dahlin at 6mil other wise he would be signed right now and not still a UFA.

I think dlbair meant that Buffalo would gladly sign him for $6 million but Dahlin wants closer to Makar money

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14 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

I think dlbair meant that Buffalo would gladly sign him for $6 million but Dahlin wants closer to Makar money

 

Exactly.  Dahlin is very much worth $6 million in this market and I expect he's going to get more than that.

 

18 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said:

Chiarot  contract ends after this year and Armia is 1.5mil cheaper than Dvorak. Evans also.

 

Arizona is a team in dire financial straits and aren't looking to add payroll.  The whole point of them moving Dvorak is to shed payroll and with their goal of a return being futures only (and that's not just me saying that, plenty of reporters have been for a while now), they wouldn't have any interest at all in Armia and Chiarot.  (Evans maybe since he's cheap on the minimum salary.)  If the Habs are going to get Dvorak, it will be a futures-based return or it won't happen at all.  The Coyotes have no reason to accept a trade that doesn't get them futures or save them any money (I'm talking about salary, not cap hit as they're so far below the cap that the AAV isn't relevant).

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Assuming KK goes to Carolina.  Wouldn't a 1st from Carolina and a 1st/2nd from Montreal be something Arizona would consider?  Complete salary shed and both futures.

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53 minutes ago, TurdBurglar said:

Assuming KK goes to Carolina.  Wouldn't a 1st from Carolina and a 1st/2nd from Montreal be something Arizona would consider?  Complete salary shed and both futures.

 

Are you suggesting Montreal give up 2 x 1st round picks for Dvorak, a 25 year old centre whose best NHL season is 38 points?  If MB did that than even I would suggest that MB be fired for such a desperation move.  That is a vast overpayment. 

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2 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

Exactly.  Dahlin is very much worth $6 million in this market and I expect he's going to get more than that.

 

 

Arizona is a team in dire financial straits and aren't looking to add payroll.  The whole point of them moving Dvorak is to shed payroll and with their goal of a return being futures only (and that's not just me saying that, plenty of reporters have been for a while now), they wouldn't have any interest at all in Armia and Chiarot.  (Evans maybe since he's cheap on the minimum salary.)  If the Habs are going to get Dvorak, it will be a futures-based return or it won't happen at all.  The Coyotes have no reason to accept a trade that doesn't get them futures or save them any money (I'm talking about salary, not cap hit as they're so far below the cap that the AAV isn't relevant).

Like I had said chiarot contract ends this year which means he's off the books. Armia is 1mil  cheaper then Dvorak. So by taking Armia they're saving 1mil a year.  Evans a RFA after this year too.

 

We can't trade for dvorak without giving up salary. So PHX helps us out this year and by taking on 2 expiring contacts that they can trade at deadline and get draft picks for they help themselves out next year by saving money. 

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9 hours ago, TurdBurglar said:

Assuming KK goes to Carolina.  Wouldn't a 1st from Carolina and a 1st/2nd from Montreal be something Arizona would consider?  Complete salary shed and both futures.

 

That's probably going to be close to what the price is.

 

8 hours ago, Habsfan89 said:

Like I had said chiarot contract ends this year which means he's off the books. Armia is 1mil  cheaper then Dvorak. So by taking Armia they're saving 1mil a year.  Evans a RFA after this year too.

 

We can't trade for dvorak without giving up salary. So PHX helps us out this year and by taking on 2 expiring contacts that they can trade at deadline and get draft picks for they help themselves out next year by saving money. 

 

You don't need to keep reminding me about when their contracts expire.  I'm more than well aware of that.  I am HW's capologist, it's kind of my job to know that.

 

Forget about the cap hits from Arizona's perspective.  They are irrelevant to the Coyotes, a low-budget spending team.  Between 2022-23 and 2024-25, Dvorak and Armia make nearly the exact same salary (not cap hit).  That alone makes Armia undesirable to them.  Evans is an RFA as you note which means there is another financial commitment they need to make to him.  Add that eventual salary payment to Chiarot's salary this season and Arizona is taking on salary as the three pieces they get have a bigger salary commitment than Dvorak (again, not cap hit; although by the time Evans signs, his cap hit plus Armia's will probably be more than Dvorak's as well so they even lose on that front long-term). 

 

The reason that Arizona is open to moving Dvorak is to save money.  Cash, not cap dollars.  They have zero reason whatsoever to accept a package like that from Montreal.  They're a rebuilding team and have emphasized adding draft picks in every move they've made this summer and they've made a lot of them.  They're going to insist on that here or they're going to keep Dvorak.  Rebuilding teams don't trade 25-year-olds for spare parts.

 

As for Montreal not being able to afford Dvorak without sending money the other way, that's not true.  With Weber being LTIR-bound for the season, they do have enough wiggle room under his LTIR threshold to afford his salary outright.  It'd be pretty tight but it's mathematically doable.

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10 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

That's probably going to be close to what the price is.

 

:o Seriously? For a 25 year old player whose best season was on pace to barely crack 45 points?  Is he some kind of defensive stalwart like Danault that I don't know about?

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8 hours ago, Habsfan89 said:

Like I had said chiarot contract ends this year which means he's off the books. Armia is 1mil  cheaper then Dvorak. So by taking Armia they're saving 1mil a year.  Evans a RFA after this year too ... So PHX helps us out this year and by taking on 2 expiring contacts that they can trade at deadline and get draft picks for they help themselves out next year by saving money. 

 

19 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

... The reason that Arizona is open to moving Dvorak is to save money.  Cash, not cap dollars ...

 

 

AND ... those savings undoubtedly have to start this season ... not next season

 

8 hours ago, Habsfan89 said:

... We can't trade for dvorak without giving up salary ...

 

I am certain that Bill Armstrong ("Yotes GM) considers that MB's problem ... UNLESS MB pays extra to get Bill to "care" ... as dlbair says, there are ways to handle Dvorak's cap hit, just as there would be ways to handle KK's $6.1M ... but I expect MB would separately shed some salary to allow to optimize LTIR flexibility in season

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3 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

 

AND ... those savings undoubtedly have to start this season ... not next season

 

 

I am certain that Bill Armstrong ("Yotes GM) considers that MB's problem ... UNLESS MB pays extra to get Bill to "care" ... as dlbair says, there are ways to handle Dvorak's cap hit, just as there would be ways to handle KK's $6.1M ... but I expect MB would separately shed some salary to allow to optimize LTIR flexibility in season

 

Agreed. Everyone knows MB is in a pickle.  This is business and no one is going to do him any favours.  If we are not going to match then I would rather keep the picks, tank, and go into the next draft with a reasonably high first round pick and likely a much lower one rather than overpaying for a Dvorak.  Unless there is a reasonable deal to be made for Eichel which is unlikely now as KK would have most certainly been part of any package in that deal. 

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2 hours ago, Fanpuck33 said:

 

:o Seriously? For a 25 year old player whose best season was on pace to barely crack 45 points?  Is he some kind of defensive stalwart like Danault that I don't know about?

 

This. I don’t know much about Dvorak, but his numbers have consistently been in the 40-point range. I can see where that replaced KK from an “offence” standpoint, but if we have to start giving up significant assets in addition to the Carolina picks to get him, that seems dodgy to me. I’d rather we overpayed a Tyler Bozak on a short-term deal if that is an option. 

 

The only exciting thing about Dvorak is that he did have an uptick in production on a PPG basis last year. Conceivably he is ready to take a step forward. Or not.

 

I don’t like the fact that we are negotiating from a position of weakness, that’s for sure.

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37 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I don’t like the fact that we are negotiating from a position of weakness, that’s for sure.

 I don't like it either.  Usually by the time a player is 25 you have a pretty good idea what their upside is so I really hope the Habs don't overpay hoping that Dvorak will develop into a 60 point guy. 

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42 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I don’t like the fact that we are negotiating from a position of weakness, that’s for sure.

The idea would be to target a player that has been shopped for quite some time.

That would somewhat even things out in terrs of position of weakness.

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3 hours ago, Fanpuck33 said:

:o Seriously? For a 25 year old player whose best season was on pace to barely crack 45 points?  Is he some kind of defensive stalwart like Danault that I don't know about?

 

I get all that but at the same time, he's a second-line centre under team control at a reasonable rate for four years.  When Alex Wennberg, a much weaker player, gets $4.5M in free agency, Dvorak's deal all of a sudden looks below market.  (It's funny, I remember being quite critical of this contract when it was signed but it has held up better than I expected.)  He's also in the prime of his career so if you're getting a player at a below-market rate in his prime instead of the beginning decline, there's going to be a premium to pay.  

 

I know that at the draft there were teams offering a 1st plus something for him and were turned down (I wouldn't be shocked if Montreal was one of them) so it's going to clearly cost more than that.  Add to that the fact the Habs don't exactly have the leverage here and it's going to be a high price tag to pay.

 

I like Dvorak - he's decent defensively though not at Danault's level.  But if he gets out of the desert where offence goes to die, I could see him winding up in that 45 point range.  A decent two-way centre with that type of production typically costs more than a 1st to acquire.

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8 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

I get all that but at the same time, he's a second-line centre under team control at a reasonable rate for four years.  When Alex Wennberg, a much weaker player, gets $4.5M in free agency, Dvorak's deal all of a sudden looks below market.  (It's funny, I remember being quite critical of this contract when it was signed but it has held up better than I expected.)  He's also in the prime of his career so if you're getting a player at a below-market rate in his prime instead of the beginning decline, there's going to be a premium to pay.  

 

I know that at the draft there were teams offering a 1st plus something for him and were turned down (I wouldn't be shocked if Montreal was one of them) so it's going to clearly cost more than that.  Add to that the fact the Habs don't exactly have the leverage here and it's going to be a high price tag to pay.

 

I like Dvorak - he's decent defensively though not at Danault's level.  But if he gets out of the desert where offence goes to die, I could see him winding up in that 45 point range.  A decent two-way centre with that type of production typically costs more than a 1st to acquire.

 

Not sure why Wennberg getting overpaid has anything to do with this. Just because Dvorak is a 2nd line centre on a weak team doesn't mean he is the answer.  I am not degrading Dvorak as he is a decent player just not buying into the theory that coming to Montreal will automatically make him a better player, maybe the added scrutiny will be a burden for him.

 

I am not against acquiring him but I am against giving up 2  1st round picks for a guy making 4.5 million a year whose best year was 38 points.  They would have been better off paying Danault 5.5M/year and  save the draft picks. 

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Just now, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

Not sure why Wennberg getting overpaid has anything to do with this. Just because Dvorak is a 2nd line centre on a weak team doesn't mean he is the answer.  I am not degrading Dvorak as he is a decent player just not buying into the theory that coming to Montreal will automatically make him a better player, maybe the added scrutiny will be a burden for him.

 

I am not against acquiring him but I am against giving up 2  1st round picks for a guy making 4.5 million a year whose best year was 38 points.  They would have been better off paying Danault 5.5M/year and  save the draft picks. 

 

Wennberg's overpayment increases Dvorak's trade value, that's the relevancy.  The more players that are worse than Dvorak that make more than Dvorak inherently increases Dvorak's value as a below-market contract; the more value the contract has relative to others on the market, the higher the asking price becomes.  I also used Wennberg specifically since Fanpuck knows Columbus very well and it was an easy way to make the point.

 

What does a late first-round pick get you?  Most of the time, not a top-six centre so if you want someone that's established as a second liner already (and that is the role he has held long enough to be viewed as one), it's going to cost more than the late first by itself.  In hindsight, had they known Kotkaniemi was going to get this offer sheet than yes, re-signing Danault at that price tag would have made more sense but Kotkaniemi getting $6.1M is a scenario no one could have reasonably forseen.

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I expect the Habs will match the offer sheet, so I am wondering why they are waiting ... from the perspective that a "fast match" (say Monday) would signal some degree of confidence in KK and could be good for the kids' own confidence on the ice ... 'Canes said publicly they would match the Aho OS right away but waited the 7 days because it tied up the money/picks involved ... it was early in free agency and doing so screwed with the Habs ... not certain there is any strategic reason for MB to wait other than desperately searching for a replacement ... not certain if that helps with optimizing what they would get from KK on the ice (i.e., Hey Jesperi ... welcome back ... so happy to have you ... tried like hell to find a reason not to match ... but we really do have faith in you).

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2 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

I expect the Habs will match the offer sheet, so I am wondering why they are waiting ... from the perspective that a "fast match" (say Monday) would signal some degree of confidence in KK and could be good for the kids' own confidence on the ice ... 'Canes said publicly they would match the Aho OS right away but waited the 7 days because it tied up the money/picks involved ... it was early in free agency and doing so screwed with the Habs ... not certain there is any strategic reason for MB to wait other than desperately searching for a replacement ... not certain if that helps with optimizing what they would get from KK on the ice (i.e., Hey Jesperi ... welcome back ... so happy to have you ... tried like hell to find a reason not to match ... but we really do have faith in you).

 

If you have the time to look at your options, use it.  I imagine at this point, they know whether or not they're willing to match but they don't have to announce that publicly in case it affects any trade talks.  The vote of confidence from Montreal would simply be them matching, not how quickly the press release comes out saying they're matching. 

 

To announce they're matching right away without thoroughly investigating their options would be a dereliction of duty on Bergevin's part.  He's been forced into this situation so the least he can do is dig deep on what's out there; news leaking that says they're leaning one way or the other would be detrimental let alone an announcement of intention.

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1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

 In hindsight, had they known Kotkaniemi was going to get this offer sheet than yes, re-signing Danault at that price tag would have made more sense but Kotkaniemi getting $6.1M is a scenario no one could have reasonably forseen.

 

Agree that no one saw the 6.1M offer coming. Right now I would be  happy to have Danault at 5.5 and an extra 1st and 3rd round pick but that isn't happening.  It's a real tough spot for MB to be in right now.  They have to figure out how good KK will be, not an easy call. 

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59 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

If you have the time to look at your options, use it.  I imagine at this point, they know whether or not they're willing to match but they don't have to announce that publicly in case it affects any trade talks.  The vote of confidence from Montreal would simply be them matching, not how quickly the press release comes out saying they're matching. 

 

To announce they're matching right away without thoroughly investigating their options would be a dereliction of duty on Bergevin's part.  He's been forced into this situation so the least he can do is dig deep on what's out there; news leaking that says they're leaning one way or the other would be detrimental let alone an announcement of intention.

I agree, I got a question can you trade a RFA if they've signed a offer sheet? Or are your only option to match or take the picks? Because if you can trade him I would imagine Bergevin is taking this time to looking to see if he can get more for Kotkaniemi in a trade than just a 1st and 3rd round pick. 

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8 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said:

I agree, I got a question can you trade a RFA if they've signed a offer sheet? Or are your only option to match or take the picks? Because if you can trade him I would imagine Bergevin is taking this time to looking to see if he can get more for Kotkaniemi in a trade than just a 1st and 3rd round pick. 

No. If matched, the player remains with his team under the terms of the offer sheet he signed and he would not be eligible to be traded for one year.

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11 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said:

I agree, I got a question can you trade a RFA if they've signed a offer sheet? Or are your only option to match or take the picks? Because if you can trade him I would imagine Bergevin is taking this time to looking to see if he can get more for Kotkaniemi in a trade than just a 1st and 3rd round pick. 

that would make MB, King Troll!!! loooolll:rofl: trade KK b4 times up on offer sheet, He will go in my perso HoF for that!!

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Just now, huzer said:

No. If matched, the player remains with his team under the terms of the offer sheet he signed and he would not be eligible to be traded for one year.

No I Ment before matching I know if he match you can't trade for a year. But I Ment during the 7 day period that they get.

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1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

 

I get all that but at the same time, he's a second-line centre under team control at a reasonable rate for four years.  When Alex Wennberg, a much weaker player, gets $4.5M in free agency, Dvorak's deal all of a sudden looks below market.  (It's funny, I remember being quite critical of this contract when it was signed but it has held up better than I expected.)  He's also in the prime of his career so if you're getting a player at a below-market rate in his prime instead of the beginning decline, there's going to be a premium to pay.  

 

I know that at the draft there were teams offering a 1st plus something for him and were turned down (I wouldn't be shocked if Montreal was one of them) so it's going to clearly cost more than that.  Add to that the fact the Habs don't exactly have the leverage here and it's going to be a high price tag to pay.

 

I like Dvorak - he's decent defensively though not at Danault's level.  But if he gets out of the desert where offence goes to die, I could see him winding up in that 45 point range.  A decent two-way centre with that type of production typically costs more than a 1st to acquire.

 

 I just don't see a 2nd liner when I look at Christian Dvorak. A solid two-way forward with an apparent ceiling of 45 points screams third liner to me. A #2 center has to at the very least put up 50 points consistently.

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