Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted April 27, 2022 Author Share Posted April 27, 2022 27 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said: My fear is we get #1 and Wright turns into Wickeneiser, while Cooley is Savard. That's certainly a legitimate fear. It's such an important draft for the Habs that I think we are all a little worried that it doesn't work out. I am also very curious to see whether they trade up at all as they have so many picks. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 45 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said: You're correct, of course - two disasters at #3 doesn't mean we'd have a disaster this year. However, I don't remember anyone saying, when we drafted Galy, "oh this is a terrible draft year, none of these guys are gonna pan out." What I remember hearing is how we had drafted a probable top-6 C who would be a core piece for years to come. So when someone says, "we'll get a great player at #3," I wince. What I'm saying is this: I don't want any bullsh*t befalling us. We're set to finish last overall and I want the #1 overall pick. The trouble is, I don't trust the hockey gods not to screw us over. Last overall is ~25% chance at #1. Its slightly over 50% at #3 That's not screwing us over. its still better to finish last and be guaranteed at worst 3, then to be 2nd and guaranteed at worst 4. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 At least the Sabres have fared well, by finishing last, in lottery lately. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 Only 4 times in the last 11 years has the last overall team gotten the #1 overall pick. Yikes. It really bugs me that one of those is Toronto.😠 #3 overall, here we come! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted April 27, 2022 Author Share Posted April 27, 2022 23 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said: It really bugs me that one of those is Toronto.😠 Yeah, but nothing we can do about that now. I just hope things get settled tonight (Montreal loss or Arizona win, or OT loss for both) so there is no drama Friday. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 44 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said: #3 overall, here we come! #2 is my guess. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 54 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said: It really bugs me that one of those is Toronto. Matthews was their 3rd straight top ten pick, so if you are suck long enough... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said: Only 4 times in the last 11 years has the last overall team gotten the #1 overall pick. Yikes. It makes sense, given that the probability of the last-place team actually picking first is about 25% ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TurdBurglar Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 With only 2 games left for Arizona and Montreal and Arizona being up by 2 points and 3 more wins, am I correct in assuming 1 more loss for the Montreal and they are a lock for last place? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted April 27, 2022 Author Share Posted April 27, 2022 8 minutes ago, TurdBurglar said: With only 2 games left for Arizona and Montreal and Arizona being up by 2 points and 3 more wins, am I correct in assuming 1 more loss for the Montreal and they are a lock for last place? yes, if it's a regulation loss. Ok, here are all the possibilities that make up 2 points to clinch last place 1) Regulation loss by Montreal 2) 2 overtime losses by Montreal 3) Win by Arizona (regulation or otherwise) 4) 2 overtime losses by Arizona 5) 1 Overtime loss by Montreal and 1 overtime loss by Arizona Have I missed any? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 3 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said: Only 4 times in the last 11 years has the last overall team gotten the #1 overall pick. Yikes ... Since this year one more team now does not make the playoffs and is lottery eligible(thanks to Seattle), the odds now are:1. 18.5 percent2. 13.5 percent3. 11.5 percent4. 9.5 percent5. 8.5 percent6. 7.5 percent7. 6.5 percent8. 6.0 percent9. 5.0 percent10. 3.5 percent11. 3.0 percent12. 2.5 percent13. 2.0 percent14. 1.5 percent15. 0.5 percent16. 0.5 percent Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 Just now, GHT120 said: Since this year one more team now does not make the playoffs and is lottery eligible(thanks to Seattle), the odds now are:1. 18.5 percent2. 13.5 percent3. 11.5 percent4. 9.5 percent5. 8.5 percent6. 7.5 percent7. 6.5 percent8. 6.0 percent9. 5.0 percent10. 3.5 percent11. 3.0 percent12. 2.5 percent13. 2.0 percent14. 1.5 percent15. 0.5 percent16. 0.5 percent So you're saying #16 is a lock? Good to know 🤪 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 26 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said: So you're saying #16 is a lock? Good to know 🤪 LOL Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted April 27, 2022 Share Posted April 27, 2022 1 hour ago, GHT120 said: Since this year one more team now does not make the playoffs and is lottery eligible(thanks to Seattle), the odds now are:1. 18.5 percent2. 13.5 percent3. 11.5 percent4. 9.5 percent5. 8.5 percent6. 7.5 percent7. 6.5 percent8. 6.0 percent9. 5.0 percent10. 3.5 percent11. 3.0 percent12. 2.5 percent13. 2.0 percent14. 1.5 percent15. 0.5 percent16. 0.5 percent Teams can only move up 10 spots. So a win by teams 12-16 means last place picks first overall. Therefore the odds of picking first overall if you are last cause is 25.5% Its 18.5 + 2.5% (12th place win) + 20 (13th win) + 1.5 + 0.5 + 0.5 So its 25.5% 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 Are you kidding me!!! How about those Yotes!!! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Helmethead Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Can you imagine if they win the lottery??? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meller93 Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 3 hours ago, Commandant said: Teams can only move up 10 spots. So a win by teams 12-16 means last place picks first overall. Therefore the odds of picking first overall if you are last cause is 25.5% Its 18.5 + 2.5% (12th place win) + 20 (13th win) + 1.5 + 0.5 + 0.5 So its 25.5% Essentially the odds of picking 1st OA is higher than the odds of winning the lottery. Very nice ! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Meller93 Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 This means when watching the draft lotto, if we see a team 16-12 has moved up, this is great news for us Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habsfan89 Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Good thing is we're either going to pick 1st or 2nd. I'd be okay with 2nd this year and 1st next year's draft 😹 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 10 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said: Good thing is we're either going to pick 1st or 2nd. I'd be okay with 2nd this year and 1st next year's draft 😹 We can pick 1st 2nd or 3rd Our odds are about 25/25/50 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 What's guaranteed though is that they will have the 1st pick in rounds 2 through 7, almost like having an extra 1st round pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 5 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: What's guaranteed though is that they will have the 1st pick in rounds 2 through 7, almost like having an extra 1st round pick. Yes. Our second-round pick will be only two spots behind our first-round pick last year. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 Wright-Cooley at top 2... who is best 3rd option? Slafkovsky-or one of the d-men Nimac-Jiricek? I am not keen on taking a d-man in top 5 (with the Flames or the 33rd pick hope BPA is a d-man), but maybe one of them would be smart choice...in worst-case scenario and pick 3rd. Well...now i hope Habs finish with 10-0 win over Panthers tomorrow, Petry looks like Robinson in his prime and has 5 point night. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted April 28, 2022 Share Posted April 28, 2022 It would definitely be nice to finish the season with a two-game mini winning streak! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted April 28, 2022 Author Share Posted April 28, 2022 48 minutes ago, DON said: Well...now i hope Habs finish with 10-0 win over Panthers tomorrow, Petry looks like Robinson in his prime and has 5 point night. Yes plus hat tricks from Caulfield and Suzuki and a shutout from Price. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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