2022 NHL Entry Draft

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

27 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

My fear is we get #1 and Wright turns into Wickeneiser, while Cooley is Savard.

 

That's certainly a legitimate fear. It's such an important draft for the Habs that I think we are all a little worried that it doesn't work out. I am also very curious to see whether they trade up at all as they have so many picks. 

[Commandant]

45 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

 

You're correct, of course - two disasters at #3 doesn't mean we'd have a disaster this year. 

 

However, I don't remember anyone saying, when we drafted Galy, "oh this is a terrible draft year, none of these guys are gonna pan out." What I remember hearing is how we had drafted a probable top-6 C who would be a core piece for years to come. So when someone says, "we'll get a great player at #3," I wince.

 

What I'm saying is this: I don't want any bullsh*t befalling us. We're set to finish last overall and I want the #1 overall pick. The trouble is, I don't trust the hockey gods not to screw us over.

 

Last overall is ~25% chance at #1.
Its slightly over 50% at #3

 

That's not screwing us over. 

 

its still better to finish last and be guaranteed at worst 3, then to be 2nd and guaranteed at worst 4. 

[DON]

At least the Sabres have fared well, by finishing last, in lottery lately.

 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Only 4 times in the last 11 years has the last overall team gotten the #1 overall pick. Yikes.

 

It really bugs me that one of those is Toronto.😠

 

#3 overall, here we come!

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

23 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

It really bugs me that one of those is Toronto.😠

 

 

Yeah, but nothing we can do about that now. I just hope things get settled tonight (Montreal loss or Arizona win, or OT loss for both) so there is no drama Friday. 

[DON]

44 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

#3 overall, here we come!

#2 is my guess.

[DON]

54 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

It really bugs me that one of those is Toronto.

Matthews was their 3rd straight top ten pick, so if you are suck long enough...

[tomh009]

1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Only 4 times in the last 11 years has the last overall team gotten the #1 overall pick. Yikes.

It makes sense, given that the probability of the last-place team actually picking first is about 25% ...

[TurdBurglar]

With only 2 games left for Arizona and Montreal and Arizona being up by 2 points and 3 more wins, am I correct in assuming 1 more loss for the Montreal and they are a lock for last place?

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

8 minutes ago, TurdBurglar said:

With only 2 games left for Arizona and Montreal and Arizona being up by 2 points and 3 more wins, am I correct in assuming 1 more loss for the Montreal and they are a lock for last place?

 

yes, if it's a regulation loss. Ok, here are all the possibilities that make up 2 points to clinch last place

 

1) Regulation loss by Montreal

2) 2 overtime losses by Montreal 

3) Win by Arizona (regulation or otherwise)

4) 2 overtime losses by Arizona

5) 1 Overtime loss by Montreal and 1 overtime loss by Arizona

 

Have I missed any? 

 

 

 

[GHT120]

3 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Only 4 times in the last 11 years has the last overall team gotten the #1 overall pick. Yikes ...

 

Since this year one more team now does not make the playoffs and is lottery eligible(thanks to Seattle), the odds now are:

1. 18.5 percent
2. 13.5 percent
3. 11.5 percent
4. 9.5 percent
5. 8.5 percent
6. 7.5 percent
7. 6.5 percent
8. 6.0 percent
9. 5.0 percent
10. 3.5 percent
11. 3.0 percent
12. 2.5 percent
13. 2.0 percent
14. 1.5 percent
15. 0.5 percent
16. 0.5 percent

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Just now, GHT120 said:

 

Since this year one more team now does not make the playoffs and is lottery eligible(thanks to Seattle), the odds now are:

1. 18.5 percent
2. 13.5 percent
3. 11.5 percent
4. 9.5 percent
5. 8.5 percent
6. 7.5 percent
7. 6.5 percent
8. 6.0 percent
9. 5.0 percent
10. 3.5 percent
11. 3.0 percent
12. 2.5 percent
13. 2.0 percent
14. 1.5 percent
15. 0.5 percent
16. 0.5 percent

 

So you're saying #16 is a lock? Good to know 🤪

[GHT120]

26 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

So you're saying #16 is a lock? Good to know 🤪

LOL

[Commandant]

1 hour ago, GHT120 said:

 

Since this year one more team now does not make the playoffs and is lottery eligible(thanks to Seattle), the odds now are:

1. 18.5 percent
2. 13.5 percent
3. 11.5 percent
4. 9.5 percent
5. 8.5 percent
6. 7.5 percent
7. 6.5 percent
8. 6.0 percent
9. 5.0 percent
10. 3.5 percent
11. 3.0 percent
12. 2.5 percent
13. 2.0 percent
14. 1.5 percent
15. 0.5 percent
16. 0.5 percent

 

Teams can only move up 10 spots.  So a win by teams 12-16 means last place picks first overall.

 

Therefore the odds of picking first overall if you are last cause is 25.5%

 

Its 18.5 + 2.5% (12th place win) + 20 (13th win) + 1.5 + 0.5 + 0.5

 

So its 25.5%

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

Are you kidding me!!!  How about those Yotes!!!

[Helmethead]

Can you imagine if they win the lottery???

[Meller93]

3 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

Teams can only move up 10 spots.  So a win by teams 12-16 means last place picks first overall.

 

Therefore the odds of picking first overall if you are last cause is 25.5%

 

Its 18.5 + 2.5% (12th place win) + 20 (13th win) + 1.5 + 0.5 + 0.5

 

So its 25.5%

Essentially the odds of picking 1st OA is higher than the odds of winning the lottery. Very nice !

[Meller93]

This means when watching the draft lotto, if we see a team 16-12 has moved up, this is great news for us 

[Habsfan89]

Good thing is we're either going to pick 1st or 2nd.  I'd be okay with 2nd this year and 1st next year's draft 😹

[Commandant]

10 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said:

Good thing is we're either going to pick 1st or 2nd.  I'd be okay with 2nd this year and 1st next year's draft 😹

 

We can pick 1st 2nd or 3rd

 

Our odds are about 25/25/50

 

 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

What's guaranteed though is that they will have the 1st pick in rounds 2 through 7, almost like having an extra 1st round pick. 

[tomh009]

5 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

What's guaranteed though is that they will have the 1st pick in rounds 2 through 7, almost like having an extra 1st round pick. 

Yes. Our second-round pick will be only two spots behind our first-round pick last year.

[DON]

Wright-Cooley at top 2... who is best 3rd option?

Slafkovsky-or one of the d-men Nimac-Jiricek?

 

I am not keen on taking a d-man in top 5 (with the Flames or the 33rd pick hope BPA is a d-man), but maybe one of them would be smart choice...in worst-case scenario and pick 3rd.

 

Well...now i hope Habs finish with 10-0 win over Panthers tomorrow, Petry looks like Robinson in his prime and has 5 point night.

 

[tomh009]

It would definitely be nice to finish the season with a two-game mini winning streak!

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

48 minutes ago, DON said:

Well...now i hope Habs finish with 10-0 win over Panthers tomorrow, Petry looks like Robinson in his prime and has 5 point night.

 

 

Yes plus hat tricks from Caulfield and Suzuki and a shutout from Price.