GDT Game #6 Oct. 24, Devils vs Canadiens, 7:15 PM

[hab29RETIRED]

12 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

My understanding is that for the last couple of years the normal cap formula in the CBA would have raised the cap if it weren't for the "Covid escrow recapture" ... without need for invoking the escalator.

Yes. So I think we should see a big bump next year from that. I just don’t think we are going to see the same incremental increase by the same amount after next year.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

2 hours ago, Commandant said:

Reinbachers contract hasnt even started yet.  By the time hes due for his second deal the cap will have risen likely 4 times. Plus price will be done, gallaghers contract will done before that happens.

 

On Slaf and Guhle the cap will have risen twice before their new deals start. Plus armia, petry retention, edmundson retention, savard and dvorak will be off the cap.

 

Starting next year we are gonna see the big cap rises come back every year as the players have now paid back the extra escrow caused by Covid.

 

All the shit contracts from the last regime are also gonna age out and be off the cap as the kids deals become due.

 

But the one thing ill also say, we HOPE that those kids become as impactful as Nylander, a guy who can put up 30+ goals and 80+ points every year.  Hes already done it.  If we have him and then Slaf and Reinbacher and Guhle are also 8, 9, 10m worthy players, we deal.with it.  Its a good problem to have.  But there is no guarantee any of them is as good as Nylander.

 

My thing is, when does the Cup window open for this group? 2-3 years from now? By that time Nylander is 30, 31. A contender usually needs a few cracks before they go all the way (if they ever do). So Nylander will likely be declining, entering his mid-30s, by the team this group is really going for it.

 

Of course, an elite player, even declining, can be a huge playoff difference maker (c.f. Price and Weber 2021). But the timing of a Nylander contract may be just a little bit premature to really be ideal.

[tomh009]

1 hour ago, hab29RETIRED said:

You’re assuming the cap will continue to rise at a regular pace. From what I’ve read players are tired of the annual escrow payments and may not want the escalator percentage increase above the regular revenue increase, so they don’t have to continue paying escrow.

I believe that will need to wait for the next CBA renegotiation.

[hab29RETIRED]

3 hours ago, tomh009 said:

I believe that will need to wait for the next CBA renegotiation.

I thought the players already have the option to allow the additional escalator percentage to increase the cap (I thought it was 5% or 6%). Historically the players opted to use it to increase the cap for the new crop of free agents, but that generally resulted in escrow payments and a lot of players were getting upset about it. Did that change?

[dlbalr]

8 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

I thought the players already have the option to allow the additional escalator percentage to increase the cap (I thought it was 5% or 6%). Historically the players opted to use it to increase the cap for the new crop of free agents, but that generally resulted in escrow payments and a lot of players were getting upset about it. Did that change?

 

There's actually now a hard cap on escrow in the new CBA - as of this season, it's at 6%.  There's also a new 'lag' formula which, if I'm interpreting the legalese correctly, means the cap has to go up at least 2.5% per year but not greater than 5%. 

[hab29RETIRED]

2 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

There's actually now a hard cap on escrow in the new CBA - as of this season, it's at 6%.  There's also a new 'lag' formula which, if I'm interpreting the legalese correctly, means the cap has to go up at least 2.5% per year but not greater than 5%. 

Thanks. Didn’t realize they made that change. If actual revenues were less than forecasted by an amount greater than 6%, do the player still have to carry the excess escrow to future years, or is it forgiven?

[dlbalr]

26 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Thanks. Didn’t realize they made that change. If actual revenues were less than forecasted by an amount greater than 6%, do the player still have to carry the excess escrow to future years, or is it forgiven?

 

It's carried forward to future years.

[GHT120]

4 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

It's carried forward to future years.

The same thing *** if *** the "numbers" were to produce a greater than 5% cap increase?

[dlbalr]

1 hour ago, GHT120 said:

The same thing *** if *** the "numbers" were to produce a greater than 5% cap increase?

 

The cap now isn't set solely by HRR from the preceding year so revenues being higher than expected still probably wouldn't yield a >5% calculation.  Below is the actual wording of that portion of the rule.

 

Quote

Maximum year-over-year increase in the Upper Limit will be the lesser of 5% and the trailing two-year average HRR growth percentage (measured using Final HRR from the League Year four years prior, Final HRR from the League Year three years prior, and Preliminary HRR from two years prior and after taking into account any FX impact adjustments)

[hab29RETIRED]

So does this mean:

1) that this years cap will go up by more than 5% (assuming HRR related revenues

have been a lot higher than the cap and it was being kept lower for escrow repayment), or will it only be limited to a 5% increase?

2) future cap increase have to be a minimum of 2.5% and the players can agree to increase it by up to 5%?

 

if this years increase is greater than 5%, and after the following year’s increase, if the players are back to paying escrow, they may choose to limit increases to 2.5%. If that’s the case, I think we should see a big bump this year, a potential 5% bump the following year, but unless they find ways to continue growing revenues at a greater rate than dumb contracts some GM’s will inevitably hand out, future cap increases may be limited to just 2.5% a year. Which is better than nothing, but I’d still want to see how much the cap is rising before handing out big money by overpaying UFA’s. 
 

Both Alberta teams look to be screwed from the contracts they have handed out. The oilers should still have RNH on a bargain contract, but only have one more year after this season before Draisaitl will be looking for at least a $5m bump, and two more seasons after this year before Connor McDavid is going to get at least a $3m bump. So in their case, any cap increase that occurs during that period is going to be eaten

up just to resign those two.  That’s the danger of looking ahead now and saying we dont have anything worry about in overpaying for a UFA. 
 

I look at Guhle today and Nurse at the same stage of his development, and I see Guhle projecting to be a much better dmen - I think he already looks smarter and has a much higher hockey IQ than Nurse has. On a long term deal, he will be looking at nurse’s $9.25m as a comparable, or what Power and Dahlin just signed for as the floor.   I’m not sure if Nurse was signed in his UFA year or two years before his UFA year, but we will need to be prepared to pay a lot of the young players we have coming up. It’s a good problem to have, but these are things that need to be considered before we making $10.5m-$11m offers to guys like Nylander. Particularly, when we probably are at least two years away from being a legit playoff team.

[Commandant]

The escalator can never be higher than 5%. But the cap could increase way more than that.

 

Why?

 

Cause next years cap is 

 

50% of this year's revenues + (2% to 5%)

 

Note this is simplified, its a little more complicated, but thats essentially what they do.

 

So if they make 10% more than this years cap that is calculated into the first part, and the  you add the escalator for inflation.  The 2-5% is that the league and players assume the league will grow each year as ticket prices increase, new tv deals, etc... etc... 

[Sir_Boagalott]

I'm not dead against Nylander, I don't want him for 9+ mil.  However, is he selfish and greedy for wanting 10+mil, or is he just smart?  i.e. they're willing to pay the other 3 that and he's just as good or better so why not want the same?  If the other 3 aren't taking paycuts why should he be the only 1 that does?  Out of any of them he already has been giving a discount. 

 

Honestly, I think he is smart and if he hits the UFA market its possible he accepts less than what he is asking for from the Leafs.  i.e. he might buy into the Habs team concept that everybody takes a discount and accept an amount that's slightly higher than Nick.  ex:  8.5 mil x 7 yrs.

 

Is that likely?  No, but imagine the scenario of the Habs defy all odds and make the playoffs and face the Leafs and beat them.  Imagine being UFA Nylander and receiving a call from Hughes which team would you think is closer to winning the Cup?   If some team in their 3rd year of a rebuild beat your Cup contender team you'd know 1st hand that they're not crap-ass going nowhere team.  Would you consider joining them?       

 

I'm not suggesting that will happen and I'm not holding my breath for it but if that scenario happens it would go along way to get Nylander to view the Habs as a great destination and sign for a reasonable amount.  

 

 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I would be surprised, but not stunned, if Nylander goes UFA.

 

The idea that we’re signing him at any sort of discount is sheer fantasy, IMHO. The only way that will happen with elite UFAs is if we are widely perceived as a league super-power one player away from a Cup.

[Sir_Boagalott]

2 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I would be surprised, but not stunned, if Nylander goes UFA.

 

The idea that we’re signing him at any sort of discount is sheer fantasy, IMHO. The only way that will happen with elite UFAs is if we are widely perceived as a league super-power one player away from a Cup.

 

I think Nylander signing for a discount depends on how the season plays out for the Leafs and Habs.  The Leafs clearly have no respect for Nylander, which could be another reason for his ask from them.

 

There is also this too:

 

"Absolutely, and it's an issue that they have to address. And the issue is, are you going to stand up for yourselves and are you not going to let an opponent push you around?

They played the Florida Panthers on Thursday night, the team that took them out of the playoffs and pushed them around. What happens, William Nylander gets drilled from behind by Kulikov, and nothing! Crickets!  And this team, everyone talks about them being a Stanley Cup contender. I don't see it. Until they stand up for themselves and establish that nobody will take advantage of any one of our players and us, they're not a Stanley Cup contender."  Craig Button.

 

Luckily, the Leafs are division rivals so Nylander will know what he'll get if he was on the Habs.  Toronto and Montreal are basically identical markets (crazy intense fan base, media circus, etc).  Plus, he'd know that he'd have considerably more protection with the Habs.  i.e. that was a bad hit form behind he received, yet his team did nothing. 

 

I disagree with the Habs have to be widely perceived as a league super-power one player away from a Cup.  The Habs only need 1 UFA to believe they could be a contender with the addition of that player.    ex:  when most people tend to think the Habs will finish bottom 5, what happens if they finish 9th or 10th or do make the playoffs?  Wherever the Habs finish, Nylander is smart enough to realize that he would make them finish much higher in the standings.

 

  

 

 

[hab29RETIRED]

13 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

 

I think Nylander signing for a discount depends on how the season plays out for the Leafs and Habs.  The Leafs clearly have no respect for Nylander, which could be another reason for his ask from them.

 

There is also this too:

 

"Absolutely, and it's an issue that they have to address. And the issue is, are you going to stand up for yourselves and are you not going to let an opponent push you around?

They played the Florida Panthers on Thursday night, the team that took them out of the playoffs and pushed them around. What happens, William Nylander gets drilled from behind by Kulikov, and nothing! Crickets!  And this team, everyone talks about them being a Stanley Cup contender. I don't see it. Until they stand up for themselves and establish that nobody will take advantage of any one of our players and us, they're not a Stanley Cup contender."  Craig Button.

 

Luckily, the Leafs are division rivals so Nylander will know what he'll get if he was on the Habs.  Toronto and Montreal are basically identical markets (crazy intense fan base, media circus, etc).  Plus, he'd know that he'd have considerably more protection with the Habs.  i.e. that was a bad hit form behind he received, yet his team did nothing. 

 

I disagree with the Habs have to be widely perceived as a league super-power one player away from a Cup.  The Habs only need 1 UFA to believe they could be a contender with the addition of that player.    ex:  when most people tend to think the Habs will finish bottom 5, what happens if they finish 9th or 10th or do make the playoffs?  Wherever the Habs finish, Nylander is smart enough to realize that he would make them finish much higher in the standings.

 

  

 

 

I think you are letting the last three games make you too optimistic.

i don’t see how we don’t

finish between 22 and 27 at best. 
 

offensively I think there is room for i

Improvement. Defensively, we don’t have the personnel and are just too young and inexperienced. 

Our other hole is in goal. We’ve seen Allen’s good run. He’s never been able to remain consistent long enough, and I don’t see that changing at age 34.

[Sir_Boagalott]

2 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

I think you are letting the last three games make you too optimistic.

i don’t see how we don’t

finish between 22 and 27 at best. 
 

offensively I think there is room for i

Improvement. Defensively, we don’t have the personnel and are just too young and inexperienced. 

Our other hole is in goal. We’ve seen Allen’s good run. He’s never been able to remain consistent long enough, and I don’t see that changing at age 34.

 

So, I've been saying they might make the playoffs this year since last season ended because of how they played in the last 3 games?  (+ tonights too - I'll throw that 1 in for ya).

 

No.  I actually say that because of where the ended in the standings last year.  Sure, they were 5th last, but they weren't that far behind the Sabers, Sens, and Wings.  It is unarguable that they were riddled with injuries last year.  Well, without all those injuries they would have finished significantly higher than they did.  They might have even placed higher than the 3 aforementioned teams.  

 

Not to mention, I know there is basically already 1 team out of playoff contention this year.  That team happens to be HC Kloten - you know, Reinbacher's team.  His season will end in March.  Therefore, it's essentially known right now that he'll play the last 20ish games of the season with the Habs.   Defensive and PP help is coming.   Where will the Habs be in the standings when that happens?    

 

 

[GHT120]

8 hours ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

 

So, I've been saying they might make the playoffs this year since last season ended because of how they played in the last 3 games?  (+ tonights too - I'll throw that 1 in for ya).

 

No.  I actually say that because of where the ended in the standings last year.  Sure, they were 5th last, but they weren't that far behind the Sabers, Sens, and Wings.  It is unarguable that they were riddled with injuries last year.  Well, without all those injuries they would have finished significantly higher than they did.  They might have even placed higher than the 3 aforementioned teams.  

 

Not to mention, I know there is basically already 1 team out of playoff contention this year.  That team happens to be HC Kloten - you know, Reinbacher's team.  His season will end in March.  Therefore, it's essentially known right now that he'll play the last 20ish games of the season with the Habs.   Defensive and PP help is coming.   Where will the Habs be in the standings when that happens?    

 

Injuries hurt last season but on the other side of the coin Montembeault had a C-R-A-Z-Y good season ... only time will tell whether it was a "Brady Anderson 1996 50 HR" season or just a step in his progression ... but if the Habs goaltending regresses to their norms then even an improvement regarding injuries gets offset.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

Even if by some miracle we make the playoffs, that’s hardly a reason for Nylander to sign at a discount.

 

The entire idea of getting elite UFAs at a discount is little more than fan fantasy. They overwhelmingly go where the money is, EXCEPT if they think they are signing with a guaranteed Cup contender.

 

For those fantasizing about discounts, let me ask you this. Would YOU voluntarily throw away $10-14 million? No? Then don’t expect others to do it.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

24 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Injuries hurt last season but on the other side of the coin Montembeault had a C-R-A-Z-Y good season ... only time will tell whether it was a "Brady Anderson 1996 50 HR" season or just a step in his progression ... but if the Habs goaltending regresses to their norms then even an improvement regarding injuries gets offset.

 

Crazy good?  A save percentage of .905 and a GAA of 2.91 is hardly comparable to a 50 HR season. You are a little out there on that one. His goalie stats were middle of the pack , a 50 HR season is not middle of the pack. 

[tomh009]

19 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Even if by some miracle we make the playoffs, that’s hardly a reason for Nylander to sign at a discount.

There is a big range between a discounted contract and a gross overpay. A player will make some kind of value judgement between teams based on a combination of money and other factors.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

32 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Even if by some miracle we make the playoffs, that’s hardly a reason for Nylander to sign at a discount.

 

The entire idea of getting elite UFAs at a discount is little more than fan fantasy. They overwhelmingly go where the money is, EXCEPT if they think they are signing with a guaranteed Cup contender.

 

For those fantasizing about discounts, let me ask you this. Would YOU voluntarily throw away $10-14 million? No? Then don’t expect others to do it.

 

Agree with all your points. If Nylander signs at a discount it will be with the Leafs where he seems happy. He will NOT be a UFA this summer anyway. 

[alfredoh2009]

but why go after Nylander, when we have Monahan. Not one-to-one match, different players: but Monahan is a better fit with the Habs and would be cheaper to sign

[hab29RETIRED]

24 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Injuries hurt last season but on the other side of the coin Montembeault had a C-R-A-Z-Y good season ... only time will tell whether it was a "Brady Anderson 1996 50 HR" season or just a step in his progression ... but if the Habs goaltending regresses to their norms then even an improvement regarding injuries gets offset.

Agreed. If Monty didn’t have the season he did, we may have been able to draft Bedard. 
As far as injuries for, despite all the injuries - we were a bad team. Slafkovsky is healthy this year and better than his injured year, but is pointless. The significant injury losses in my opinion were to Caufield, Dach (same as this year), Guhle, Monohan (but I think that should have been expected given his history - had he been healthy he would probably have been traded), and Edmondson (would also have been traded).

 

The Caufield injury hurt our chances of having a 40 or potentially even 50 goal scorer, more than it did of us making the playoffs. Buffalo and Ottawa had better offensive players than us (and more of them), and still missed the playoffs.
 

Buffalo had a 47 goal scorer, three 30+ goal scorers, a 28 goal scorer and  6 players with over 10 goals. They had a 94 point guy, and a players with over 80 and 70 points. They have two young studs on the blue line (Dahlin scored 15 goals), and they still missed the playoffs- mainly because of crap goaltending, and because we are in the toughest division in the NHL.

 

Ottawa had 3 thirty goal players and three 20 goal players, and had 90, 80 and 70 point players. They were also hot with injuries and got mediocre goaltending.

 

Even if we were healthy we don’t stack up to them. Even if we are healthy we don’t stack up to either of them this year either - over a FULL season. Not yet anyways.

 

Detroit is also better this year and we’re better last year as well.

 

if we didn’t have the injuries to our veteran D’s I doubt we would have been much better, and the number of young D we had, probably would not have gotten a chance to show their potential.

 

Injuries to Dvorak, Armia, Gallagher are “meh” injuries, because even when healthy they really aren’t impact players. Armia typically has 1 in 5 decent games and Gallagher isn’t the pre contract extension Gallagher. Dvorak will never be anything more than a wasted 1st and 2nd pick. Without those injuries, guys like RHP dont get a chance that they did.

 

I think it’s delusional to think we could have made the playoffs if we were healthy last year. At best we would have finished 7th (ahead of Phoenix and Philly), or 8th (potentially ahead of Washington - who were also ravaged by injuries), instead of 5th for the draft position. Without Monty’s strong play we were either 4th or third worst.

 

this year, I’m liking the effort and enjoying the entertainment value, and finally being optimistic that we are moving in the right direction. But we are NOT making the playoffs. Next year we MAY be a bubble team, The potential addition of Reinbacher for the last 20 games isn’t going to help us make the playoffs. We would be getting a 19 year old rookie, not Larry Robinson or Chris Chelios in their prime to help us. Do you really think we will finish ahead of Toronto, Boston, Tampa, and Florida (last years playoff teams). I will be shocked if don’t finish worst than 7th in our division - although I’m expecting us to finish 8th.

 

looking at the standings today we are better than Edmonton. Do you think that’s going to hold by the end of the season?

[hab29RETIRED]

52 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Even if by some miracle we make the playoffs, that’s hardly a reason for Nylander to sign at a discount.

 

The entire idea of getting elite UFAs at a discount is little more than fan fantasy. They overwhelmingly go where the money is, EXCEPT if they think they are signing with a guaranteed Cup contender.

 

For those fantasizing about discounts, let me ask you this. Would YOU voluntarily throw away $10-14 million? No? Then don’t expect others to do it.

100% agree. Nylander was held out and fought for every contract he got (even reneged on a signed deal). I don’t see his son taking a discount - especially since he already held out resigning his last deal for the first three months of the season. He will follow the money and probably the weather (why his father reneged on his deal).

would I love to get Nylander at a team friendly deal under $10m. Defiantly- even though I’m not sure that we will be ready to contend for at least the first two years of that deal. Do I think it’s possible? I think it’s between highly unlikely, to no chance in hell. If he is a UFA, and if we do manage to sign him, it will be because we backed up a brinks truck to his door.

[hab29RETIRED]

36 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

Crazy good?  A save percentage of .905 and a GAA of 2.91 is hardly comparable to a 50 HR season. You are a little out there on that one. His goalie stats were middle of the pack , a 50 HR season is not middle of the pack. 

He was good enough to get us to a 5th last last position, rather than a 3rd or 4th last. Without his season we may have got Bedard. But no way in hell were we making the playoffs last year even if Monty was Dominic Hasek or a combination of both Dryden and Roy.