GDT GAME#12 TB vs Habs 7pm Tues Nov 7 2023

[dlbalr]

Tonight's postgame: https://www.habsworld.net/2023/11/10-thoughts-ugly-start-too-much-to-overcome-against-lightning/

[Sir_Boagalott]

I agree with the comments about Matheson.    Not sure what his issue is but I hope there is a good excuse like he's playing with an injury or something.  I constantly see him making bad plays this year.  ex: he was bad on Kucherov's goal.  

 

It's too bad TB scored a 5th goal and that Dvorak didn't score between the 10-5 min mark to give the Habs a chance to pull the goalie and tie it.

 

The Habs definitely showed some mettle scoring 3 in the 3rd.  That's exactly what we want to see when they are down, but it would have been cooler if the Habs had scored a few in the 2nd too.  

[Sir_Boagalott]

3 hours ago, Dalhabs said:

What happened to the team from a few weeks ago? This is horrible.

 

Dvorak?  Can't be all his fault, but he is the 1 thing that has changed.

 

5 hours ago, DON said:

Not sure anyone actually had hopes they would/could make the playoffs.

I picked a 29th finish, which may be a bit pessimistic, but not much lower than most guessed.

 

Playoffs this year are a long shot, but I believe it could be possible if they micro manage and do certain things.  i.e.:  increase their PP output.  ex:  look at TB, they're PP is 2nd - that's all they have going for them atm really.  Plus, look at the other PP leaders - the top 8 are playoff teams.  Cannes are 8th @ 26.7%, Habs are 14th @ 20.5%.  If they can increase their PP by 25% that would be a 5% increase = 25.5% that would make a big difference in their final points.

 

However, they need to get points in games like this 1 to have any chance at the playoffs.  i.e. beat teams that are superior but are struggling when they face them, and beat all teams that are below them in the standings - like the Blues.  

 

They have played decent against good teams so maybe they can get some points from the Booins, Wings and Nucks this week.  It would suck to see them lose 7 in a row.  

[DON]

Nice to see Pezzetta (6 hits) & Dvorak get their 1st of year

Anderson stood out with 4shots, such a strong player, just no finish yet and still cant pass well.

1a for Guhle/Barron/Harris.

Slafkovski caught off guard again and tossed into boards, hope another learning lesson, at lest he seemed to use his size and finish a few checks and managed 1 shot.

 

10 Thoughts: Ugly Start Too Much To Overcome Against Lightning – HabsWorld.net

[huzer]

11 hours ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

 

Dvorak?  Can't be all his fault, but he is the 1 thing that has changed.

 

 

Nah, RHP out, Savard out, Guhle out, Ylonen out, Armia in. Newhook to C. I don't see a dip in effort. Even when the Habs were 5-2-1, most of the stats pointed to a team that was really ranked in the 20s.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

5 minutes ago, huzer said:

 

Nah, RHP out, Savard out, Guhle out, Ylonen out, Armia in. Newhook to C. I don't see a dip in effort. Even when the Habs were 5-2-1, most of the stats pointed to a team that was really ranked in the 20s.

 

Yes, we forget that this team also had an excitingly hot start last year. 

 

Young D is trouble. When they all go guns-a-blazing they can look great, but consistency is always the bugbear of young defencemen. Savard's injury doesn't help. And I went into the season saying that our FW unit looked better than we think, but Dach's injury, Anderson's struggles, and Slaf's continued performance as an absolute ZERO expose a so-called "rebuild" that is in fact starved for young talent up front. IMHO we need to add more young FW talent to the organization, and we need to do so fairly soon, given that Slick Nick will be 25 next season. 

[GHT120]

28 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

...  consistency is always the bugbear of young defencemen ...

 

Words that are all too easy to forget when we get excited by a run of success.

[alfredoh2009]

40 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

[...] IMHO we need to add more young FW talent to the organization, and we need to do so fairly soon, given that Slick Nick will be 25 next season. 

 

Is Suzuki the new incarnation of Koivu?

 

I agree with your points, and I wonder if the current management's plan is for a window centred around Suzuki? or further ahead?

[GHT120]

7 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

Is Suzuki the new incarnation of Koivu?

 

An excellent/elite 2C miscast as a 1C?

[Neech]

1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Yes, we forget that this team also had an excitingly hot start last year. 

 

Young D is trouble. When they all go guns-a-blazing they can look great, but consistency is always the bugbear of young defencemen. Savard's injury doesn't help. And I went into the season saying that our FW unit looked better than we think, but Dach's injury, Anderson's struggles, and Slaf's continued performance as an absolute ZERO expose a so-called "rebuild" that is in fact starved for young talent up front. IMHO we need to add more young FW talent to the organization, and we need to do so fairly soon, given that Slick Nick will be 25 next season. 

 

This is why we need to continue drafting in the top 5 for at least one more year, if not more. The worst thing we can do is finish around 10th for the next couple years and doom ourselves to another decade of almost not quite contention.

 

Slaf had to stay in Europe last year and this one also. I still think he'll develop into a decent player, considering that he's shown improvement from last year to this and seems to have a good work ethic, but there's a risk when you draft a fourth liner he'll stay a fourth liner.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

35 minutes ago, Neech said:

 

This is why we need to continue drafting in the top 5 for at least one more year, if not more. The worst thing we can do is finish around 10th for the next couple years and doom ourselves to another decade of almost not quite contention.

 

 

So let’s say we take two more years of high drafting and add some impact FW prospects into the system. Those prospects will probably take a couple of years to start to do meaningful damage in the NHL. And even then, they might need another year or two to really start hitting their ceiling.

 

That’s 4 years. Suzuki is by then 28-9, the end of his contract in sight and the end of his peak years also on the horizon.

 

1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

 

Is Suzuki the new incarnation of Koivu?

 

I agree with your points, and I wonder if the current management's plan is for a window centred around Suzuki? or further ahead?

 

The Koivu analogy is fair. I see Suze as a legit #1A C, meaning he is best supplemented with another C of comparable quality. He’s not a guy who can carry a team on his back as the primary focus of the other team’s checking. He needs someone to pull away some of that attention in order to really put up big numbers. That’s what Dach might have been, but Dach now has to be considered a question mark as far as I’m concerned.

 

The whole question of Suzuki’s window is one I wonder about. Had you asked me a year or two ago, I’d have said, “OK, we build so that the Habs are rounding into contending form around the time he’s in his prime, 26, 27.” But because I’m not seeing the talent at FW, I’m no longer sure this is realistic. 🤷‍♂️ 

 

We might have to swing deals to accelerate things. And that’s still possible. But I would see this working more in terms of Dach/Newhook-style deals, where we try to get young FWs who are 2-3 years into their development. THAT could make contending in two or three years realistic. Whether those deals can be found, is a whole other story.

[Neech]

12 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

So let’s say we take two more years of high drafting and add some impact FW prospects into the system. Those prospects will probably take a couple of years to start to do meaningful damage in the NHL. And even then, they might need another year or two to really start hitting their ceiling.

 

That’s 4 years. Suzuki is by then 28-9, the end of his contract in sight and the end of his peak years also on the horizon.

 

 

 

Yep, and our D prospects will be coming into their mid 20's, when they should be hitting their prime given that defenders take longer. Reinbacher age 23/24 should be our target year. Suzuki and Caufield in their late 20's/early 30's will still be productive, and it takes a mix of youth and vets to compete. We can't rush this thing and hope for the best without enough top talent up front, like decades past.

[BCHabnut]

I say start trying to compete now. Hope you catch an impact player in the draft. Comb through every 1st round draft in the last 40 years, and you will see that half the players should not have been drafted where they were. Suzuki, Caufield, Dach (he'll be fine), Guhle, Hutson, maybe Reinbacher, maybe Slaf. That's enough high end (possible elite) talent to build from. I say sign Monahan, identify why you're giving up so many high danger chances. If it's personnel, band aid it with systems. If it's systems, adjust the system. There's no superstar on this team. The likelihood of drafting one is low. Start competing.  

 

We tanked the wrong year...

[tomh009]

1 hour ago, BCHabnut said:

We tanked the wrong year...

It wasn't exactly planned, though!

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

2 hours ago, BCHabnut said:

I say start trying to compete now. Hope you catch an impact player in the draft. Comb through every 1st round draft in the last 40 years, and you will see that half the players should not have been drafted where they were. Suzuki, Caufield, Dach (he'll be fine), Guhle, Hutson, maybe Reinbacher, maybe Slaf. That's enough high end (possible elite) talent to build from. I say sign Monahan, identify why you're giving up so many high danger chances. If it's personnel, band aid it with systems. If it's systems, adjust the system. There's no superstar on this team. The likelihood of drafting one is low. Start competing.  

 

We tanked the wrong year...

 

We finished fifth last in 2022-23. That's pretty bad, and I doubt we could have scientifically engineered guaranteed worse results. Plus, everyone forgets about the lottery. The Ducks and Jackets picked "the right year to tank" and still got hooped.

 

We are almost certainly getting a high pick this season. That's another opportunity to add an impact young FW. We should be looking to trade vets at this year's deadline - hopefully we can leverage that to bring back some young FWs as well. Then we wait to see how Dach performs next season. If he picks up where he left off and is still going strong by the deadline, we should start thinking seriously in terms of making a jump in 2025-26. If he doesn't, then I suspect we are indeed looking down a longer road, unless Beck or some other unforeseen factor really exceeds expectations.

[alfredoh2009]

Beck, I am so happy to see his name pop-up

 

but despite how much I love that kid, I do not think he has the potential to be more than an excellent 3C

[Neech]

8 hours ago, BCHabnut said:

 

 

We tanked the wrong year...

 

It seems like there are a couple of star forwards at the top of this draft.

[Sir_Boagalott]

14 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Yes, we forget that this team also had an excitingly hot start last year. 

 

Young D is trouble. When they all go guns-a-blazing they can look great, but consistency is always the bugbear of young defencemen. Savard's injury doesn't help. And I went into the season saying that our FW unit looked better than we think, but Dach's injury, Anderson's struggles, and Slaf's continued performance as an absolute ZERO expose a so-called "rebuild" that is in fact starved for young talent up front. IMHO we need to add more young FW talent to the organization, and we need to do so fairly soon, given that Slick Nick will be 25 next season. 

 

They definitely had a hot start last year, that's partially why I'm not surprised they started strong this year either.  Last year their hot started ended when they got hit with a ton of injuries and this year Dach was out real quick but they still played decent for while.

 

8 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

We are almost certainly getting a high pick this season. That's another opportunity to add an impact young FW. We should be looking to trade vets at this year's deadline - hopefully we can leverage that to bring back some young FWs as well. Then we wait to see how Dach performs next season. If he picks up where he left off and is still going strong by the deadline, we should start thinking seriously in terms of making a jump in 2025-26. If he doesn't, then I suspect we are indeed looking down a longer road, unless Beck or some other unforeseen factor really exceeds expectations.

 

I totally disagree with most of what you said and especially dumping vets because your plan would lead them to not making the playoffs for another 3 years minimum.  Plus, any team that would want Monahan, Pearson, or Anderson; wont give up an elite player to obtain them - only picks which: a) is a crap shoot, and b) take another 3-5 years to develop them.  Like you say Nick will be 25 next year and with that plan he might win a Cup by the time he is 30.

 

Also, I expecting Beck along with Roy to be a vital part of any Cup runs even if they are only "3rd liners".  Next year or the year after the Habs might not have typical 2nd and 3rd lines and I'd even do it this year.  ex:  whichever line of those 2 that are hot on any given night are the "2nd line" and get those minutes.   Beck and Roy are both significantly above average offensively along with defensively so they should be able to shut other teams top lines down and get 50+ pts each as "3rd liners" which is a decent amount.    

 

I'd use that same go with who's hot concept in any SO as well.   In the SO games this year I somewhat questioned Marty's choice of shooters.  i.e:  sure, Nick and Cole are great, but if other players were on fire that night start with them in a SO.

 

 

 

 

[tomh009]

6 hours ago, Neech said:

 

It seems like there are a couple of star forwards at the top of this draft.

It seems so, yes. But then Lafreniere was also expected to be a star forward. Even without the lottery, there are no guarantees.

[GHT120]

6 hours ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

... any team that would want Monahan, Pearson, or Anderson; wont give up an elite player to obtain them - only picks which: a) is a crap shoot, and b) take another 3-5 years to develop them ...

 

They won't give up an already elite player ... and I can agree that late draft picks are not likely to be impactful for several years ... BUT ... such picks can be packaged as part of a trade ... OR ... rather than picks. HuGo could go for already drafted players not yet, or not yet established, in the NHL.

 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

46 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

They won't give up an already elite player ... and I can agree that late draft picks are not likely to be impactful for several years ... BUT ... such picks can be packaged as part of a trade ... OR ... rather than picks. HuGo could go for already drafted players not yet, or not yet established, in the NHL.

 

 

I’m thinking Hughes will look for Dach/Newhook type deals, i.e., getting back guys who have already spent some time in the AHL or NHL and whose development time is therefore shorter.

 

7 hours ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

 

They definitely had a hot start last year, that's partially why I'm not surprised they started strong this year either.  Last year their hot started ended when they got hit with a ton of injuries and this year Dach was out real quick but they still played decent for while.

 

 

I totally disagree with most of what you said and especially dumping vets because your plan would lead them to not making the playoffs for another 3 years minimum.  Plus, any team that would want Monahan, Pearson, or Anderson; wont give up an elite player to obtain them - only picks which: a) is a crap shoot, and b) take another 3-5 years to develop them.  Like you say Nick will be 25 next year and with that plan he might win a Cup by the time he is 30.

 

Also, I expecting Beck along with Roy to be a vital part of any Cup runs even if they are only "3rd liners".  Next year or the year after the Habs might not have typical 2nd and 3rd lines and I'd even do it this year.  ex:  whichever line of those 2 that are hot on any given night are the "2nd line" and get those minutes.   Beck and Roy are both significantly above average offensively along with defensively so they should be able to shut other teams top lines down and get 50+ pts each as "3rd liners" which is a decent amount.    

 

I'd use that same go with who's hot concept in any SO as well.   In the SO games this year I somewhat questioned Marty's choice of shooters.  i.e:  sure, Nick and Cole are great, but if other players were on fire that night start with them in a SO.

 

 

 

 

 

Well, the truth is that I’m still mulling these things over, not advocating an iron-clad position. But do you really expect the Habs to keep ALL their veterans at this year’s deadline? It doesn’t have to be all or nothing after all. I’d be open to keeping Monahan OR Anderson, but assuming the former stays healthy and the latter can find his game, either would be quite tantalizing at the deadline. So would Allen. Then there’s Savard. (Gally is untradable I assume). If we can fandangle a deal involving one or two of them to get back a quality young FW, we certainly should do it. 

 

I hear nice things about Beck and Roy, but right now we seem to be in a position where they absolutely have to “hit.” It’s the absence of a surplus of young FW talent, akin to what we have on D, that bothers me. I question whether we have the critical mass we need.

[Sir_Boagalott]

6 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Well, the truth is that I’m still mulling these things over, not advocating an iron-clad position. But do you really expect the Habs to keep ALL their veterans at this year’s deadline? It doesn’t have to be all or nothing after all. I’d be open to keeping Monahan OR Anderson, but assuming the former stays healthy and the latter can find his game, either would be quite tantalizing at the deadline. So would Allen. Then there’s Savard. (Gally is untradable I assume). If we can fandangle a deal involving one or two of them to get back a quality young FW, we certainly should do it. 

 

True, there are some I would move but I wouldn't move all of them and particularly the 1's that are most sought after by other teams. i.e. that means those players are good so why move them? The players that I'd move are somewhat considered bad contracts anyway. ex:  Dvorak, Armia, Savard, and possibly Anderson (as long as his size and toughness can be replaced).  For the 1st 3 players receiving hockey pucks and water bottles would be worth it because it would create room for prospects.   At the moment I think it would be crazy to move Monahan or Pearson, especially when they're getting Gally to be productive again.   With 3 years left on Gally's contract it's incredibly important to have him produce so I'd keep those 2 guys for that reason alone.  Plus, they passed Sutter's D 1st ideology so they aren't defensive liabilities.  

 

Honestly, I understand why people want to dump Gally, but I wouldn't do that at all and I fully expect to hear "if you want loyalty get a dog" to echo from the Sutter/Babcock/Bergevin peanut gallery.   However, out of all the Habs in the last 20 years Gally is the 1 that is still around and deserves to win a Cup with them.   Price, Pleks, and Markvov were deserving and unfortunately that didn't work out for them but it still can for Gally and he has earned that right.  

 

6 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I’m thinking Hughes will look for Dach/Newhook type deals, i.e., getting back guys who have already spent some time in the AHL or NHL and whose development time is therefore shorter.

 

 

Puljujärvi has previously been rumored for the Habs and he is currently a UFA so I wonder if Hughes might target him and can Marty get him going?  He might be an  interesting low cost addition with potential to break out.  

 

 

 

 

[tomh009]

30 minutes ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

Puljujärvi has previously been rumored for the Habs and he is currently a UFA so I wonder if Hughes might target him and can Marty get him going?  He might be an  interesting low cost addition with potential to break out. 

He could be an entertaining option!

 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

32 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

He could be an entertaining option!

 

Dear God that is more disturbing than the Kentastic pic I posted 

[Sir_Boagalott]

Also, the main thing that upset me in that game was how TB essentially played it like it was a playoff game.  i.e. they came out hard and were making solid hits all game long.  ex:  Cole was dumped at 1 of the faceoffs - and no response.  Sure Slaf was hit and Arber fought Jeannot, but fighting isn't the only response to hard hits.  When the other team wants to play physical like that the Habs need to respond in kind.  ex:  Anderson isn't doing much point wise, but he could easily be running around being BangBus and flattening people.  I would have liked to have seen him throw his big body into Kucherov or Stamkos and same with Pezzetta on Point.  Furthermore, it is especially Arber that needs to step right up with doling out big bone crushing hits to the other teams top players and get the 2 for 1 effect going.  ex:  Arber flattens a top player on another team and possibly injures them, then their teammate comes to their defense and Arber gives them a serious beat down.    Plus, if the Habs toughest guys do clean hits that injure a top player on a team in their division that team would have less points and the Habs might be able to finish higher in the standings than they do.   ex:  Leafs - crunch Knies and that would have a big impact on their success.