Permanent Rumour Thread

[IN THE HEARTS OF MEN]

3 hours ago, Commandant said:

I think there is another couple things to remember with Monahan's injuries vs Dach's.  Pure games missed is one thing but its not everything.

 

Monahan was a dominant PPG centre on a first line in Calgary at one point in his career. While hes still a good player, His injuries have clearly reduced his effectiveness and hes played through them.

 

Dach's injuries have been different body parts each time (wrist, sternum, leg), while Monahan has had a chronic issue with his hip.

 

Dach is younger.

 

Dach has two more years on his contract at 3.3 million, significantly less than the numbers we are discussing on a potential monahan extension in this thread.

 

Well... Monahans broken foot was unrelated to his hip injury that he sustained and tried playing through before surgery. I read an article that he made it worst by trying to play through it and his hip was totally fine last year. These are the only two significant  injuries he has sustained in 11 seasons and unrelated much like Dach

 

He was also never a PPG player but for one season when he got 84 points in 78 games

 

Hes a career 60/65 point player his whole career but for the one season.

 

I said a 3 year deal 4 max. Of course less then 5 million would be ideal.  But if he gets 20 plus this year and returns to his norm in games played. He's getting around 5.

 

 

[IN THE HEARTS OF MEN]

27 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

Monahan produced like a top-six forward for a month and a third-liner for two months.  He's on the third line now.  I think there's plenty of evidence to show he's a third liner on a contending team.  Teams know what Anderson is; his value hasn't moved much within the last couple of years, even when he was sitting at zero goals a few weeks ago.  With Monahan's injury past, his value is much more susceptible to movement.  Two years in a row now, he started strong and then slowed down; if I can see that, so can other teams.  There isn't a contending team out there that's looking at Monahan as a full-time top-six guy regardless of my stat line (which was more to illustrate to some who think he's still producing that he really isn't all that much lately).

 

Yes, lots can change but as of today, I think he's viewed as a third-liner by everyone who might want him.  History shows that the elite third-liners get a first-rounder and I don't think Monahan is in that category right now.  But, given that his value ebbs and flows a lot more compared to someone like Anderson, a good six-week stretch could definitely change things.  But from what I've seen from him lately, I'm not expecting it.

All I know is top line centers who are a PPG are making 8-10 million a season.

 

A third line C who was playing in the top 6 his whole career and who just turned 29yrs old and shown no ill effects from his hip surgery (2 years ago), and last year demonstrated he was coming back into form before breaking his foot  and is on pace for 20 plus goals this season  after 4 x 20 goal and 4 x 30 goal seasons is worth  at least 3 years 15 million.

 

He's worth more to us re-signed

 

[alfredoh2009]

22 minutes ago, IN THE HEARTS OF MEN said:

[...]

He's worth more to us re-signed

 

yes, to me he will have a bigger impact on the Habs' next couple of playoffs than my favourite prospect (Beck) who still needs to grow his game to the NHL level.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

Yes, lots can change but as of today, I think he's viewed as a third-liner by everyone who might want him.  History shows that the elite third-liners get a first-rounder and I don't think Monahan is in that category right now.  But, given that his value ebbs and flows a lot more compared to someone like Anderson, a good six-week stretch could definitely change things.  But from what I've seen from him lately, I'm not expecting it.

 

Monahan is on pace for 20 goals and 50 points and his faceoff percentage is 57%.  I think that's pretty elite for a 3rd liner.  Definitely a guy you don't mind taking a draw in the last minute of a close playoff game. We can make all the rational, reasonable arguments we want but GM's quite often throw caution to the wind at the trade deadline.  But every year is different, some years are crazier than others at the deadline. We can only speculate right now. 

 

[hab29RETIRED]

4 hours ago, Commandant said:

I think there is another couple things to remember with Monahan's injuries vs Dach's.  Pure games missed is one thing but its not everything.

 

Monahan was a dominant PPG centre on a first line in Calgary at one point in his career. While hes still a good player, His injuries have clearly reduced his effectiveness and hes played through them.

 

Dach's injuries have been different body parts each time (wrist, sternum, leg), while Monahan has had a chronic issue with his hip.

 

Dach is younger.

 

Dach has two more years on his contract at 3.3 million, significantly less than the numbers we are discussing on a potential monahan extension in this thread.

Also have to factor in that for his time in Calgary, you need to factor in not just games missed, but also games he should have missed. He continued playing when he should have got surgery during two of his season in Calgary, which only increased the amount of wear issues with both the hips and wrists, by not dealing with the injuries at the right time - much like his foot injury last year.
 

He was an extremely popular player in Calgary until the media and fans turned on him. Hdid have chronic other year’s as well, he just didn’t miss his games and it didn’t effect him as much earlier. During the Covid year, he should have dealt with his injuries, but instead played hurt, and it reduced his effectiveness in the playoffs. It’s one thing to suck it up in the playoffs after a hard year, it’s another to not being able to be effective in the playoffs because you didn’t deal with the issue at the right time.

 

i would not want him him signed for over 3 years and no more than $4m. Even then, if a team offers a first+, I think you have to take it. I also think that at his current salary, a team may be willing to give up more than a 2nd rounder for him, even though his production has fallen. Centres are a premium at the deadline, and ones that can play both ends of the ice effectively at a low salary will be worth more.

 

If we were close to being a contender, he is exactly the type of guy I’d want our team to get. While we are not that many points back of a wild part spot CURRENTLY, I still don’t think that we are even a legit bubble team. We are 25th in the league, and while I said at the start of the season I think we’ll finish between 25-28, I think we will still finish closer to 27-28. Next year hopefully we are at least a legit bubble team, 25/26 is the year we should be looking at being a solid playoff team. Given where we are, I don’t see the point of holding on to Monohan IF someone is willing to give up a 1st+ for him, or Savard.

[hab29RETIRED]

1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

 

Monahan produced like a top-six forward for a month and a third-liner for two months.  He's on the third line now.  I think there's plenty of evidence to show he's a third liner on a contending team.  Teams know what Anderson is; his value hasn't moved much within the last couple of years, even when he was sitting at zero goals a few weeks ago.  With Monahan's injury past, his value is much more susceptible to movement.  Two years in a row now, he started strong and then slowed down; if I can see that, so can other teams.  There isn't a contending team out there that's looking at Monahan as a full-time top-six guy regardless of my stat line (which was more to illustrate to some who think he's still producing that he really isn't all that much lately).

 

Yes, lots can change but as of today, I think he's viewed as a third-liner by everyone who might want him.  History shows that the elite third-liners get a first-rounder and I don't think Monahan is in that category right now.  But, given that his value ebbs and flows a lot more compared to someone like Anderson, a good six-week stretch could definitely change things.  But from what I've seen from him lately, I'm not expecting it.

I think most teams will see him as bargain 3rd liner, who can be moved up the lineup when needed, and I think some teams will be willing to give up a 1st rounder for that versatility at his current salary. I th knee can play more of a role that Lars Eller did with the Caps during their cup run, at a much lower cap hit.

[hab29RETIRED]

1 hour ago, IN THE HEARTS OF MEN said:

All I know is top line centers who are a PPG are making 8-10 million a season.

 

A third line C who was playing in the top 6 his whole career and who just turned 29yrs old and shown no ill effects from his hip surgery (2 years ago), and last year demonstrated he was coming back into form before breaking his foot  and is on pace for 20 plus goals this season  after 4 x 20 goal and 4 x 30 goal seasons is worth  at least 3 years 15 million.

 

He's worth more to us re-signed

 

Armia was on pace for 20 goals many times during his career. Now Monohan is and always will be 10 times the player Armia could ever be, but he is an old 29. He isn’t even a 60 point guy anymore, and I don’t see him getting 20. I do see him having an enough for a playoff run. I also see value in being a mentor that can provide 12-17 goals over the next three years snd 40-50 points if healthy and that’s a big IF. I think given where we are a 1st rounder is worth more. That can be used to trade. For another centre from a cash strapped team later on, and not just to pick another player at the draft. So if we can get a 1st for Monohan, given where we are, I don’t know how we could even think twice but to trade him. If we resign him No one is going to give up a 1st for a guy like Monohan at the draft even if he was making $3m/yr, but someone may be willing to overpay for a playoff run at his current salary with no future commitments.

[TurdBurglar]

1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

 

Monahan produced like a top-six forward for a month and a third-liner for two months.  He's on the third line now.  I think there's plenty of evidence to show he's a third liner on a contending team.  Teams know what Anderson is; his value hasn't moved much within the last couple of years, even when he was sitting at zero goals a few weeks ago.  With Monahan's injury past, his value is much more susceptible to movement.  Two years in a row now, he started strong and then slowed down; if I can see that, so can other teams.  There isn't a contending team out there that's looking at Monahan as a full-time top-six guy regardless of my stat line (which was more to illustrate to some who think he's still producing that he really isn't all that much lately).

 

Yes, lots can change but as of today, I think he's viewed as a third-liner by everyone who might want him.  History shows that the elite third-liners get a first-rounder and I don't think Monahan is in that category right now.  But, given that his value ebbs and flows a lot more compared to someone like Anderson, a good six-week stretch could definitely change things.  But from what I've seen from him lately, I'm not expecting it.

I think you're assessment of Monahan is a little harsh.  Despite injuries, he's always produced at a top-6 level.  Last season, in the short sample size, he averaged 0.78 points/game. That's top-6 production on all but about 3 teams in the NHL.  This season it has dipped to 0.59 points/game, but his struggles start after injuries started piling up and the rest of the team started a similar trend in production.  Still, 0.59 point/game is the upper end of a third line player, which is roughly 50 pts in a full healthy season. 

 

He's also playing on a team with the 6th worse goals/game in the NHL.  It's very reasonable to say on a better team his production would go up.  Even a 10% boost in production is pushing him into the top-6 realm. 

 

I also want to point out while he's not a PK forward, his point production is hampered by Montréal popgun PP and his role in it.  When he's on the ice on the PP, the puck cycles mainly through Suzuki, Matheson and Caufield.  So he needs to wait to be passed to or make something happen for himself to produce points on the PP.

[dlbalr]

14 minutes ago, TurdBurglar said:

I think you're assessment of Monahan is a little harsh.  Despite injuries, he's always produced at a top-6 level.  Last season, in the short sample size, he averaged 0.78 points/game. That's top-6 production on all but about 3 teams in the NHL.  This season it has dipped to 0.59 points/game, but his struggles start after injuries started piling up and the rest of the team started a similar trend in production.  Still, 0.59 point/game is the upper end of a third line player, which is roughly 50 pts in a full healthy season. 

 

He's also playing on a team with the 6th worse goals/game in the NHL.  It's very reasonable to say on a better team his production would go up.  Even a 10% boost in production is pushing him into the top-6 realm. 

 

I also want to point out while he's not a PK forward, his point production is hampered by Montréal popgun PP and his role in it.  When he's on the ice on the PP, the puck cycles mainly through Suzuki, Matheson and Caufield.  So he needs to wait to be passed to or make something happen for himself to produce points on the PP.

 

Believe me, I've looked at the teams that might have interest in Monahan.  Aside from maybe Colorado, there isn't one where he's a sure-fire top-six player and the Avs are aiming a whole lot higher than Monahan at the moment.  League-wide, I'm not sure that there are ten other teams (including non-playoff teams) that would view him as a true top-six. 

 

I disagree that his production would go up on a better team.  He plays PP1 in Montreal, he certainly isn't going to be there on a good team.  And nearly half his point total has come with the man advantage this season.  At five-on-five, he hasn't been very productive.  At even strength, he's a third liner with two fewer ES points than Jake Evans (and that's a full-season stat, not a cherry-picked sample size).  The five-on-five production might go up a tad but it'll be offset by not playing PP1.

 

A three-week hot streak at the start of the season doesn't change the outlook for me; I'm going with the larger and more recent sample size as the better assessment of his offensive ability.  He's fading offensively and has been for a while now.  On a pop gun offence, that's unlikely to improve demonstrably to significantly increase his trade or contract value in the coming weeks.  And if his production keeps sliding, I don't see how he gets a first-round pick unless every other centre of value gets extended and comes off the trade block.

 

If I'm coming off too harsh, I'm not trying to.  I like Monahan.  But for me, he's a 40-point player, not a 50, certainly not a 60.  I expect the longer sample size will continue, offsetting the early-season hot streak; that 0.59 PPG average is going to drop over the next two months.  He's definitely a useful player at the right price point and slotting him as a 3C behind Suzuki and Dach as a bridge guy for a couple more years makes sense to give Beck some AHL time.  But that price point starts with a three which falls in line with similar players with that type of production. 

[DON]

But wont he be perfect for 1 playoff run; cheap veteran centre depth, likely be pretty valuable?

I dont know what other similar options likely would be available? 

[tomh009]

1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

A three-week hot streak at the start of the season doesn't change the outlook for me; I'm going with the larger and more recent sample size as the better assessment of his offensive ability. 

I wouldn't want to cherry-pick the hot streak, either, but neither would I specifically choose a less productive period. Using the full season is a more objective measure--and a bigger sample, too.

 

Anyway, it appears that Hughes has some interest in Monahan, so let's see whether they are close enough to agree on terms. If they are not, Monahan will be gone for whatever price is offered.

[dlbalr]

28 minutes ago, DON said:

But wont he be perfect for 1 playoff run; cheap veteran centre depth, likely be pretty valuable?

I dont know what other similar options likely would be available? 

 

Other centres in play will be Lindholm, Henrique, Novak (whose contract is going to make him really popular), maybe Wennberg.  Offensively, Jason Dickinson is in that mix as well but he won't command a huge return.  It's not a deep C group.

 

But there are only so many firsts to go around.  Lindholm will get one, so will Hanifin.  If Guentzel goes, he gets one.  Someone else will pay a first for a d-man.

 

If you go back a page or two, I have Monahan as a 2nd plus a small something (think a mid-round pick a couple years out).  That's still a pretty valuable return on a rental.

[hab29RETIRED]

2 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

Believe me, I've looked at the teams that might have interest in Monahan.  Aside from maybe Colorado, there isn't one where he's a sure-fire top-six player and the Avs are aiming a whole lot higher than Monahan at the moment.  League-wide, I'm not sure that there are ten other teams (including non-playoff teams) that would view him as a true top-six. 

 

I disagree that his production would go up on a better team.  He plays PP1 in Montreal, he certainly isn't going to be there on a good team.  And nearly half his point total has come with the man advantage this season.  At five-on-five, he hasn't been very productive.  At even strength, he's a third liner with two fewer ES points than Jake Evans (and that's a full-season stat, not a cherry-picked sample size).  The five-on-five production might go up a tad but it'll be offset by not playing PP1.

 

A three-week hot streak at the start of the season doesn't change the outlook for me; I'm going with the larger and more recent sample size as the better assessment of his offensive ability.  He's fading offensively and has been for a while now.  On a pop gun offence, that's unlikely to improve demonstrably to significantly increase his trade or contract value in the coming weeks.  And if his production keeps sliding, I don't see how he gets a first-round pick unless every other centre of value gets extended and comes off the trade block.

 

If I'm coming off too harsh, I'm not trying to.  I like Monahan.  But for me, he's a 40-point player, not a 50, certainly not a 60.  I expect the longer sample size will continue, offsetting the early-season hot streak; that 0.59 PPG average is going to drop over the next two months.  He's definitely a useful player at the right price point and slotting him as a 3C behind Suzuki and Dach as a bridge guy for a couple more years makes sense to give Beck some AHL time.  But that price point starts with a three which falls in line with similar players with that type of production. 

I agree that the Avs are probably shooting higher. But I could see the canes, Caps, Isles in the East as teams potentially a fit (I think the Pena would be interested, they just have no assets to offer up). When you look at the west, I could see most of the teams in the playoff picture wanting to add a guy like Monohan. A team like Winnipeg is going to be all in  -the only thing that they’ll be carful about upsetting chemistry. If the Avs make a big move, others in the west will also be looking to add.
 

There will always be demand and a premium for RHD and centres that can slide up and down, or play the wing in the middle six - particularly guys who can produce and are responsible offensively. With so many team’s up against the cap, when you factor in Monohan’s cap hit, I could see multiple teams willing to give up a 1st+ for Monohan. 
 

Hell, if we were a legit playoff team and a guy like Monohan was available, he is exactly the kind of guy I’d be looking to add. At his cap hit, teams could add him AND address another need. I think it’s going to depend more on the amount of movement that occurs leading up to the deadline. This is a copycat league. It’s just going to take one team to make a significant move to trigger a flurry of activity. If that move doesn’t happen, we could be in for a quiet deadline. But like I said earlier, it’s a copycat league - and there are some teams that will make moves, so we could be in for a pretty busy deadline, and that could lead to a lot of overpaying. I’d love it if we could move Allen, Monohan and Savard by the deadline and pick up two first rounders, and a couple of second rounders, or some high end prospects. Hell, in our situation with so many prospects, we should be looking at making moves to add picks for the 2026 to 2028 drafts when hopefully we will be picking much later in the draft!

[hab29RETIRED]

31 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

Other centres in play will be Lindholm, Henrique, Novak (whose contract is going to make him really popular), maybe Wennberg.  Offensively, Jason Dickinson is in that mix as well but he won't command a huge return.  It's not a deep C group.

 

But there are only so many firsts to go around.  Lindholm will get one, so will Hanifin.  If Guentzel goes, he gets one.  Someone else will pay a first for a d-man.

 

If you go back a page or two, I have Monahan as a 2nd plus a small something (think a mid-round pick a couple years out).  That's still a pretty valuable return on a rental.

Guys like Lindholm and Henrique are not only going to cost more, but will require more cap room.

I agree there are only going to be so many 1st rounders available for the draft and potentially even 2025, but with the number of picks we have and the number of prospects in our system, we should be trying to get more picks 2026-2028. We will hopefully be picking later and could use more picks at that time - either to restock the cupboards, or to use as capital to add players for our own future playoff runs.

[dlbalr]

54 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

I agree that the Avs are probably shooting higher. But I could see the canes, Caps, Isles in the East as teams potentially a fit (I think the Pena would be interested, they just have no assets to offer up). When you look at the west, I could see most of the teams in the playoff picture wanting to add a guy like Monohan. A team like Winnipeg is going to be all in  -the only thing that they’ll be carful about upsetting chemistry. If the Avs make a big move, others in the west will also be looking to add.

 

Lots of those teams will have some interest, sure.  (I expect Washington will be selling though, Pittsburgh is TBD.)  But my comment was about him being a top-six piece on teams.  He wouldn't be on the playoff-bound teams on your list, he'd be a third-liner.  I don't doubt Monahan will have a good market, I just don't think he'll be producing enough to fit high enough on a depth chart to warrant a first-rounder in the return, that's all.

[hab29RETIRED]

29 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

 

Lots of those teams will have some interest, sure.  (I expect Washington will be selling though, Pittsburgh is TBD.)  But my comment was about him being a top-six piece on teams.  He wouldn't be on the playoff-bound teams on your list, he'd be a third-liner.  I don't doubt Monahan will have a good market, I just don't think he'll be producing enough to fit high enough on a depth chart to warrant a first-rounder in the return, that's all.

I guess we will have to wait and see. If Tampa can give up what they did for Jeannot - who admittedly is a younger (who they intended on reigning),and different type of player, but wasn’t one that was used in the top 6, I can see teams overpaying for a guy who can not only add to their team with his ability to fit in anywhere in the lineup, be insurance for top 6 in case of injury, and at worst be a solid 3rd line player at a very low cap hit.

[TurdBurglar]

The real value of Monahan is going to be late in the day on deadline day or a team like Toronto or Edmonton without the cap space for the other centers come knocking.  I know what you're thinking, neither of those teams will be looking for a center.  You just have to remember it's Toronto and Edmonto  who believe if they throw enough offense on the ice, the non-existant defense or goaltending doesn't matter. 

 

Don't forget last season where Toronto desperately needed defenceman or help in net above everything else and they went out and got Ryan O'Reilly, then couldn't afford to get anything to address their actual needs.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

4 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

Other centres in play will be Lindholm, Henrique, Novak (whose contract is going to make him really popular), maybe Wennberg.  Offensively, Jason Dickinson is in that mix as well but he won't command a huge return.  It's not a deep C group.

 

But there are only so many firsts to go around.  Lindholm will get one, so will Hanifin.  If Guentzel goes, he gets one.  Someone else will pay a first for a d-man.

 

If you go back a page or two, I have Monahan as a 2nd plus a small something (think a mid-round pick a couple years out).  That's still a pretty valuable return on a rental.

 

Definitely not a deep C group. As hab29RETIRED pointed out Lindholm and Henrique are certainly more expensive and harder to fit in the cap, your assuming Nashville will be sellers again with Novak, that's far from certain. I also don't think Wennberg is that attractive and Seattle will likely push for a playoff spot. Not a ton of options. 

 

It's true there are only so many 1st to go around but I think Hughes is more interested in 2025 anyway. 

[Commandant]

22 hours ago, tomh009 said:

Only one year of point/game (or did you mean power play goals?), though, in 2018-19. For most of his Calgary career, he was in the range of 0.7-0.8 points/game. With the Habs, 0.68 last year and 0.59 this year--mostly not with top-notch linemates. He's down a bit from his earlier production, but still very credible.

 

I do agree that a first-rounder is unlikely, all things consider, though. I think a big question is whether he likes playing for the Habs enough to sign (a reasonable contract) without exploring free agency.

 

I said "At one point in his career"

 

His numbers (ppg wise) improved three straight years culminating in PPG at age 25... then the injuries hit and he dropped off to juat 48 points the year after.

 

My point was that at 25 years old he was seen as a legit 1st liner.  Now hes a 2nd/3rd line tweener.

 

[alfredoh2009]

Senators are coming to a cap crunch that will require them to clear salary. I do not think the Canadiens and the Sens are a match for a trade, but you never know:

https://ottawasun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/ottawa-senators/senators-gm-steve-staios-trying-to-juggle-salary-cap-space

[dlbalr]

14 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

Senators are coming to a cap crunch that will require them to clear salary. I do not think the Canadiens and the Sens are a match for a trade, but you never know:

https://ottawasun.com/sports/hockey/nhl/ottawa-senators/senators-gm-steve-staios-trying-to-juggle-salary-cap-space

 

Once Pinto signs (and it'll be for cheap), I think they can get back under with waivers as long as Andlauer is willing to eat some pricey minor leaguers.  But if you're looking for a possible trade, I think Erik Brannstrom is the one they'll be shopping with the hopes of getting some value back.  Eventually, Kubalik and Tarasenko will go with some retention but those might be closer to the deadline.  Kubalik could be a waiver option himself in the short term.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

The Ducks are stocking up on young centers (Zegras, Gauthier, McTavish, Carlsson) like the Habs are stocking up on young defensemen. You would think at some point there will be another trade. 

[Commandant]

7 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

The Ducks are stocking up on young centers (Zegras, Gauthier, McTavish, Carlsson) like the Habs are stocking up on young defensemen. You would think at some point there will be another trade. 

 

Mintyukov, Luneau, Zellwegger, they still have some good D talent after the trade.

[Helmethead]

21 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

The Ducks are stocking up on young centers (Zegras, Gauthier, McTavish, Carlsson) like the Habs are stocking up on young defensemen. You would think at some point there will be another trade. 

I was thinking the same. 
 

Honest question:

 

Which D lines up best for a 1 vs 1 for Zegras? 

[dlbalr]

1 hour ago, Helmethead said:

I was thinking the same. 
 

Honest question:

 

Which D lines up best for a 1 vs 1 for Zegras? 

 

Here's the problem - Anaheim doesn't need a d-man back if they're moving Zegras.  They're the other team about as loaded on the back end as Montreal is in terms of prospects.  I think they'd want a young impactful forward and I'm not sure there's a viable fit between who the Habs would give up and who the Ducks would want.