Permanent Rumour Thread

[Prime Minister Koivu]

5 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

Teams don't give up top notch goalies easily as they are hard to find and develop. Edmonton is in a tough spot right now. Their goaltending just isn't good enough and they are in win now mode as much as any team in the NHL, Holland has to do something, just don't think Montreal's goalies are a huge upgrade, an improvement perhaps but not a huge upgrade. 

Edmonton is in a really brutal spot and I don’t think there is a way to solve anything without major pain. 
 

Im biased so I hope they take one of our goalies but it’s honestly not good enough for them. One positive about Montembault is that he plays on a poor team with defensive breakdowns so maybe he could do better in Edmonton. 
 

[DON]

Oilers appear out of it already.

[TurdBurglar]

47 minutes ago, DON said:

Oilers appear out of it already.

This only means they will be more desperate.  I'm fairly confident missing the playoffs for Edmonton is unacceptable regardless of where they currently sit.  The contracts of McDavid, but more pressing, Draisaitl are too short to just let this season slip away so early.  I fully expect a desperation move before Christmas to attempt to right the ship. 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

27 minutes ago, TurdBurglar said:

This only means they will be more desperate.  I'm fairly confident missing the playoffs for Edmonton is unacceptable regardless of where they currently sit.  The contracts of McDavid, but more pressing, Draisaitl are too short to just let this season slip away so early.  I fully expect a desperation move before Christmas to attempt to right the ship. 

 

It ain't rocket surgery, they need a goalie. 

 

[GHT120]

25 minutes ago, TurdBurglar said:

This only means they will be more desperate.  I'm fairly confident missing the playoffs for Edmonton is unacceptable regardless of where they currently sit.  The contracts of McDavid, but more pressing, Draisaitl are too short to just let this season slip away so early.  I fully expect a desperation move before Christmas to attempt to right the ship. 

The $64,000 Question is how?

 

If they somehow manage to trade Campbell (almost impossible) it will cost a TON and only free up an extra $3.85M ... almost all their players that would be "big moves" have at least NTCs (Draisaitl, 10-team) or NMCs (McDavid, Hyman, Kane, Nugent-Hopkins and Nurse) ... Draisaitl is the only BIG move they can make without seeking the player's permission, even if another wanted team (does anyone want Nurse?).

 

They have 6 players making more than $1M who they can trade ... Skinner, Kulak, CeCi, Bouchard, Ekholm, McLeod and Foegele ... Bouchard is the only one that could likely generate a BIG return ... Holland, and to lesser extent Chiarelli, has painted the Oilers into a corner.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

7 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

It ain't rocket surgery, they need a goalie. 

 

 

Yup, they do need a goalie.  The Oilers are 8 points out of a wild card spot with 65 games left.  They are far from out of it BUT they have a lot of work to do and better goaltending is an absolute must. 

[GHT120]

1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

It ain't rocket surgery, they need a goalie. 

But GETTING one is.

[TurdBurglar]

29 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

It ain't rocket surgery, they need a goalie. 

 

 

Having watched my fair share of Oilers games so far this season, a goalie isn't the only solution to this problem.  They can shore up their defense and get a similar effect.  Their defense looks worse than Montreal's defense did last season, they are abysmally bad.

 

19 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

The $64,000 Question is how?

 

If they somehow manage to trade Campbell (almost impossible) it will cost a TON and only free up an extra $3.85M ... almost all their players that would be "big moves" have at least NTCs (Draisaitl, 10-team) or NMCs (McDavid, Hyman, Kane, Nugent-Hopkins and Nurse) ... Draisaitl is the only BIG move they can make without seeking the player's permission, even if another wanted team (does anyone want Nurse?).

 

They have 6 players making more than $1M who they can trade ... Skinner, Kulak, CeCi, Bouchard, Ekholm, McLeod and Foegele ... Bouchard is the only one that could likely generate a BIG return ... Holland, and to lesser extent Chiarelli, has painted the Oilers into a corner.

 

This is where the desperation comes in.  They need to shed cap space.  Obviously Campbell is the biggest lightening rod.  Nurse is also massively overpaid.  RNH is, and has been, expendable for awhile.  Kane is under performing. There's 4 $5m+ contract that are all expendable.

 

They should explore a Nurse for Fowler move.  Frees up some cap space and Anaheim may be interested if someone like Bourgault or Petrov is involved.  Then they can explore lesser moves to acquire a veteran backup for Skinner.  Their defense is overpaid and real bad.

 

 

 

 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

2 hours ago, TurdBurglar said:

 

Having watched my fair share of Oilers games so far this season, a goalie isn't the only solution to this problem.  They can shore up their defense and get a similar effect.  Their defense looks worse than Montreal's defense did last season, they are abysmally bad.

 

 

This is where the desperation comes in.  They need to shed cap space.  Obviously Campbell is the biggest lightening rod.  Nurse is also massively overpaid.  RNH is, and has been, expendable for awhile.  Kane is under performing. There's 4 $5m+ contract that are all expendable.

 

They should explore a Nurse for Fowler move.  Frees up some cap space and Anaheim may be interested if someone like Bourgault or Petrov is involved.  Then they can explore lesser moves to acquire a veteran backup for Skinner.  Their defense is overpaid and real bad.

 

 

 

 

 

I agree that it's more than just the goalie, something happened between last year and this year and they are playing a lot worse defensively, goalie included.  When they lost the season opener 8-1 a lot of people wrote it off as just one game but obviously it was a pretty good sign that something wasn't right. 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

6 hours ago, Commandant said:

The worst that can happen is that you traded away 1/2 of what would be a future tandem for you, and you need to go out and find two goalies instead of 1 before your are ready to make the playoffs.  The worst case scenario is that Monty proves he's a 1a/1b, Allen continues to show his age and fall off, Primeau never becomes a legit NHL goalie (or 1 of them gets a serious injury and you have to look for a goalie to finish the year), the prospects in the system are not ready for the NHL.  You have to look for 2 goalies next summer.  Meanwhile, with two bad goalies behind a young team, you hurt the confidence and development of a core that is full of young defencemen who are in their 1st or 2nd season on the blueline, and a bunch of forwards who are still young like Slaf, Caufield, Newhook, Suzuki, Ylonen, RHP, etc.... stalling all of their development because the team loses confidence and plays tight knowing that any mistake is a goal against.

 

I think that explains it well. It's not easy as a GM to always project correctly how a player will turn out down the road and I think goalies are even harder to project. A 2nd rounder (likely a late one) is not enough for me to give up on Monty. Unless of course he is asking for the moon in contract negotiations. 

[alfredoh2009]

10 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

I think that explains it well. It's not easy as a GM to always project correctly how a player will turn out down the road and I think goalies are even harder to project. A 2nd rounder (likely a late one) is not enough for me to give up on Monty. Unless of course he is asking for the moon in contract negotiations. 

that seems more like a dooms day scenario than a plausible worst case.

The same way the Habs picked Montembeault from waivers is still plausible if the wheels fall off the bandwagon. One must consider the possibility that the Habs get valuable players in return for Montembeault.

 

Hug-Gort have been able to make smart trades, if they trade Montembeault I am sure they will get a decent return. I am hopeful

[DON]

1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

..., if they trade Montembeault I am sure they will get a decent return. I am hopeful

I dont think his value is that high, he is an above average back-up i would guess.

[GHT120]

9 minutes ago, DON said:

I dont think his value is that high, he is an above average back-up i would guess.

HOPEFULLY that is where desperation comes into play ... is there a better option that has a $1M cap-hit and necessitates the least roster disruption?

[alfredoh2009]

25 minutes ago, DON said:

I dont think his value is that high, he is an above average back-up i would guess.

That is why I am confused in the separation anxiety from trading him.

it is not as if he makes the team better, he is good enough for the NHL but not more than that 

[Commandant]

1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

that seems more like a dooms day scenario than a plausible worst case.

The same way the Habs picked Montembeault from waivers is still plausible if the wheels fall off the bandwagon. One must consider the possibility that the Habs get valuable players in return for Montembeault.

 

Hug-Gort have been able to make smart trades, if they trade Montembeault I am sure they will get a decent return. I am hopeful

 

You asked for worst case, that's worst case. 

 

I'm not saying it will happen, just what the actual worst case is. 

 

And there is no guarantee that the next goalie plucked off waivers will be as good as Montembault.  If there was, no one would trade for Montembault, they'd just grab a goalie off waivers.  But the reality is that players are usually on waivers for a reason, while its true that sometimes there is a gem there, its not something you should count on.  Most players on waivers are not good NHLers.  Just because you got a legit NHL goalie in Montembault this way, doesn't mean you should bank on repeating it.

 

The reality is that if you trade Montembault, you are hoping Primeau works out, which is far from a guarantee.  If he doesn't, you need to go find two NHL goalies within 2 years (and that's assuming Allen is a legit NHL goalie next season), and they wont be easy to find. 

[tomh009]

On 11/21/2023 at 1:32 PM, alfredoh2009 said:

same here. that would be a huge return on a stopgap waiver pickup.

Whether a player came in as a waiver pickup or a first-round pick shouldn't really matter, only his current value.

[alfredoh2009]

5 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

Whether a player came in as a waiver pickup or a first-round pick shouldn't really matter, only his current value.

I respect that view, but I am sharing a different view where assets are managed to “buy low and sell high” like Hughes mentionnés in one of his first interviews when he was hired

 

On the long run, if the teams gains in player quality by getting a positive return on trades: it should see an improvement on the ice 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

59 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I respect that view, but I am sharing a different view where assets are managed to “buy low and sell high” like Hughes mentionnés in one of his first interviews when he was hired

 

On the long run, if the teams gains in player quality by getting a positive return on trades: it should see an improvement on the ice 

 

So using Commandant's example, if someone offered you say a 3rd round pick for Joshua Roy would you accept it as he was drafted in the 5th round?  Would you accept a late 1st round pick for Lane Hutson considering he was drafted late in the 2nd round?  You trade based on current value of the player not on the value of the player from 3 years ago. I am pretty confident that Hughes won't sell his players short. 

[TurdBurglar]

Dreger speculation Oilers goalie shopping will land on Montembeault.  For Bourgault or part of a "bigger blockbuster package."  He also notes that the return for coming back from Edmonton would have to be substantial.

[DON]

7 minutes ago, TurdBurglar said:

Dreger speculation Oilers goalie shopping will land on Montembeault.  For Bourgault or part of a "bigger blockbuster package."  He also notes that the return for coming back from Edmonton would have to be substantial.

Blockbuster eh.

I just dont see him as that good, but desperation by Oilers i suppose.

Do they mean an Oiler top six forward would be involved and a cheap young Hab d going to the Oilers?

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

21 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

I agree that it's more than just the goalie, something happened between last year and this year and they are playing a lot worse defensively, goalie included.  When they lost the season opener 8-1 a lot of people wrote it off as just one game but obviously it was a pretty good sign that something wasn't right. 

 

Little discussed outside of EDM is that they changed their defensive system. The results are in, and they are disastrous. Whether the new coach is going back to the old system, I don't know.

 

1 hour ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I respect that view, but I am sharing a different view where assets are managed to “buy low and sell high” like Hughes mentionnés in one of his first interviews when he was hired

 

On the long run, if the teams gains in player quality by getting a positive return on trades: it should see an improvement on the ice 

 

By this logic Tampa Bay should trade Kucherov for a high second rounder because he was drafted at #58. So moving up would be a "win." Or, we should have traded (say) Gallagher for a 2nd in 2014, because he was originally only a 5th rounder. You can also flip this scenario to further unpack the logic: e.g., if Vancouver offered us Makar-level superstar Quinn Hughes (*8th overall pick) for Slaf (1st overall), we shouldn't take it, because Slaf's draft position was higher.

 

Therefore, I agree with those who say it's not how a player was acquired that matters - it's how good the player actually turns out to be. If Monty is a legit #1 or even #1A, it would be silly to trade him for a second-rounder. 2nd round picks have a 35% chance of making the NHL and an even lower chance of having lasting careers in the NHL. Why would we create a big hole in net - with no idea how to fill it - in return for those odds?

 

32 minutes ago, TurdBurglar said:

Dreger speculation Oilers goalie shopping will land on Montembeault.  For Bourgault or part of a "bigger blockbuster package."  He also notes that the return for coming back from Edmonton would have to be substantial.

 

Now that's more like it. I am no prospect expert, but I gather that Bourgault legitimately projects to be a top-6 FW, which this organization needs more of. I'm not against trading Monty if we get significant value back. That being said, I am mindful of Commandant's worst-case scenario. We should leverage Edmonton's desperation for as much return as we can manage.

 

I'm surprised they don't want Allen, who to my mind is more proven and a perfect platoon guy. I guess it comes down to the cap.

[tomh009]

2 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I'm surprised they don't want Allen, who to my mind is more proven and a perfect platoon guy. I guess it comes down to the cap.

I think you have hit the nail on the head.

[alfredoh2009]

24 minutes ago, TurdBurglar said:

Dreger speculation Oilers goalie shopping will land on Montembeault.  For Bourgault or part of a "bigger blockbuster package."  He also notes that the return for coming back from Edmonton would have to be substantial.

Thank you, that seems the most likely scenario

 

I made a trade proposal involving Allen; that is what I would prefer 

[alfredoh2009]

36 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

So using Commandant's example, if someone offered you say a 3rd round pick for Joshua Roy would you accept it as he was drafted in the 5th round?  Would you accept a late 1st round pick for Lane Hutson considering he was drafted late in the 2nd round?  You trade based on current value of the player not on the value of the player from 3 years ago. I am pretty confident that Hughes won't sell his players short. 

I won’t comment on what he posts. I don’t see his posts 

[GHT120]

1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I'm surprised they don't want Allen, who to my mind is more proven and a perfect platoon guy. I guess it comes down to the cap.

 

1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

I think you have hit the nail on the head.

 

Yup ... as has been much discussed, the Oilers cap situation makes a trade for even Allen's relatively modest $3.85M cap hit an exercise in horrendous financial gymnastics.