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Shea Weber Career in Jeopardy, Ren Lavoie and Elliotte Friedman Report


Commandant

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1 hour ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Sounds like LTIR for remainder of his contract is what Weber is looking for. The league wants to make sure we aren’t skirting the retirement clause

If they determine that he needs to retire. we'll be on the hook for maybe $2.5M or so. Nashville would lose almost $5M in cap space for the next five years. I don't have the exact numbers handy, though.

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1 hour ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Sounds like LTIR for remainder of his contract is what Weber is looking for. The league wants to make sure we aren’t skirting the retirement clause

Don't recall whether the NHL has ever contested whether of not an injury was truly "career-ending" (i.e., eligible for a multi-season use of LTIR) ... and if they did, I don't know whether they had any success.

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On 7/7/2021 at 11:23 PM, Trizzak said:

Seen some chatter from fans speculating that Weber might be "done" because of this image. I think it's just his teammates paying respect to the oldest guy on the team (that hasn't one a cup yet) and knowing that he was definitely playing hurt this whole time. 

 

I would not have guessed that those fans were actually onto something.

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I’m sad about this situation. As the playoffs were nearing an end I was going to make a post that while I was Weber’s biggest fan, his age actually seemed apparent to me during this run. I knew he was injured but he also shot a 100mph shot into Goodrow during the final, so there was more to it. It seems moot to say it now even though it had been a thought of mine, but one couldn’t have expected it to be this bad. 

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5 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:


Sounds like LTIR for remainder of his contract is what Weber is looking for. The league wants to make sure we aren’t skirting the retirement clause

They didn't care about Hossa. They didn't care when Pronger did it AND had an office job with the NHL. They didn't care about Gaborik who hasn't played since 2018 but just lifted the Cup in Tampa a few days ago. 

 

Why do they suddenly care now?

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10 hours ago, tomh009 said:

If they determine that he needs to retire. we'll be on the hook for maybe $2.5M or so. Nashville would lose almost $5M in cap space for the next five years. I don't have the exact numbers handy, though.

 

That's what this post is for (Montreal's numbers are still current, Nashville's have changed a bit):

 

 

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7 hours ago, Trizzak said:

They didn't care about Hossa. They didn't care when Pronger did it AND had an office job with the NHL. They didn't care about Gaborik who hasn't played since 2018 but just lifted the Cup in Tampa a few days ago. 

 

Why do they suddenly care now?


I don’t know why there would be a hardline now but it does make sense to at least investigate. 
 

The entire retire/recapture issue can simply be avoided by going on LTIR. 

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7 hours ago, Trizzak said:

They didn't care about Hossa. They didn't care when Pronger did it AND had an office job with the NHL. They didn't care about Gaborik who hasn't played since 2018 but just lifted the Cup in Tampa a few days ago. 

 

Why do they suddenly care now?

 

Apparently they investigated all of those too. 

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55 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:


And they accepted Hossa’s career ending skin rash so I’m sure Weber is fine. 
 

It just means that Weber is done and won’t be back

 

Yeah I think its more about the fact the NHL hasn't gotten all the medicals yet.  This is pretty quick since he went to the doctor on Wednesday to get another opinion. ... and he might be consulting multiple doctors too. 

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10 hours ago, Trizzak said:

They didn't care about Hossa. They didn't care when Pronger did it AND had an office job with the NHL. They didn't care about Gaborik who hasn't played since 2018 but just lifted the Cup in Tampa a few days ago. 

 

Why do they suddenly care now?

 

Gaborik and Pronger were more straightforward cases, where they were placed on IR during the season with new injuries and never played again. Hossa is a perfect comparison, though, and the league did look into his situation (https://www.google.com/amp/s/sports.yahoo.com/amphtml/nhl-will-rule-marian-hossa-salary-cap-impact-blackhawks-214944257.html).

 

Hossa played through his chronic allergy/skin condition that was kept private for years before deciding it was too much. Similarly, Weber returned to action and played through the pain from all of the previous injuries before deciding it was too much. There was certainly speculation that the league viewed Hossa's situation as cap circumvention and required an independent doctor to verify his claim that he could no longer play (https://www.secondcityhockey.com/2017/10/3/16409406/marian-hossa-ltir-status-update-nhl-blackhawks-2017). Whether that was a mere formality or an actual challenge to his status is anyone's guess.

 

I would imagine they look into every situation of permanent LTIR and it just isn't usually discussed publicly. With Montreal's media involved, you know it's going to be a much louder issue that people will be talking about until a ruling finally comes down.

 

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I was trying to figure out the Habs projected Cap to see who they may target, and cannot figure out without guessing correctly who they may add to take on Weber's spot in the lineup.

 

what are the better stop-gap RDs available to play second pairing RD while Weber is on LTIR?

 

Hamilton at 6M ?

Barrie at $5.5M ?

Romanov or Kulak?

Ouellet?

Merrill or Gustafsson?

 

other? the list of UFAs that have recently played over 16 TOI is slim:

image.png

 

 

 

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11 minutes ago, dlbalr said:

Hamilton will cost a lot more than $6 million per year.  He'll be high 7, low 8 on his next deal.

That is nuts on a flat cap time 

 

good for him

 

I wish Brook and Fleury were an option. If the Habs approach the season as a development  opportunity that would be my preferred choice: to play the kids

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Stars get paid, and Hamilton is a legit star. 

 

If we sign him, we have just signed a contender for the Norris Trophy. 

 

The flat cap is gonna squeeze the middle tier free agents... Hamilton and Landeskog will get paid. 

 

The guy it hurts is Danault and thats why i think Bergevin is smart to hold firm on him.  Its gonna hurt Tyson Barrie and others who are good but not super stars

 

Anytime we see this, in any sport, the top guys still get their money... its the mid tier that takes the squeeze in budgets. 

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11 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

That is nuts on a flat cap time 

 

good for him

 

I wish Brook and Fleury were an option. If the Habs approach the season as a development  opportunity that would be my preferred choice: to play the kids

We have the cap space now and I'm not sure we will find enough good players to spend it.  I'm very happy if we can get Hamilton at about the same cap cost as Weber.

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6 minutes ago, Peter Puck said:

We have the cap space now and I'm not sure we will find enough good players to spend it.  I'm very happy if we can get Hamilton at about the same cap cost as Weber.

Not sold on Hamilton in Montreal. He had a hard time in Boston and Calgary, I think the media will eat him alive much like they did to Drouin if he underperformers. 

 

I would look at making a trade and an interesting player could be Ristolainen. 1 year left on his contract. I would offer our 1st round pick and a prospect or another pick to buffalo for him.  I think in our system he would do really well. 

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The analytics suggest that Ristolainen is very poor, even considering that he was in Buffalo.

 

As for how they'd react, they have been trying to trade ristolainen for a long time with no success. 

 

He seems like the defence version of Galchenyuk, he's coasting on his name and reputation as a top ten pick, but he really isn't good.

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54 minutes ago, Commandant said:

The analytics suggest that Ristolainen is very poor, even considering that he was in Buffalo.

His Corsi% and xGF% are indeed not so good compared to other Buffalo D. But, that said, most of his starts were in the defensive zone, he got relatively few offensive-zone starts. This is the reverse of what you pointed out for Gustafsson (who was rarely starting in the defensive zone for the Habs).

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58 minutes ago, Habsfan89 said:

Not sold on Hamilton in Montreal. He had a hard time in Boston and Calgary, I think the media will eat him alive much like they did to Drouin if he underperformers ...

Both organizations seem much more "old school" than Montreal ... he might fit better here ... also, he was 19-21 in Boston and 22-24 in Calgary, he may have matured in Carolina ... and, were he to learn some high school French he could be a media/fan darling.

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10 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

His Corsi% and xGF% are indeed not so good compared to other Buffalo D. But, that said, most of his starts were in the defensive zone, he got relatively few offensive-zone starts. This is the reverse of what you pointed out for Gustafsson (who was rarely starting in the defensive zone for the Habs).

 

Fair, he shouldn't be the top 4 defenceman as he's been used in buffalo and played against top lines. 

 

Maybe with less responsibility those analytics improve. 

 

But do you want a third pair defenceman on a 5.4 million cap hit?

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Maybe he could be second pair -- but $5.4M is still steep. If Buffalo would retain some salary, that might work. Then negotiate a more reasonable extension contract.

 

But, even if he's capable of second pair, the reality is that we have too many second-pair D and not enough first-pair D (am counting Romanov in the second-pair group for now, at least).

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If it came down to Hamilton or Seth Jones....who would be the better fit? 

 

And if not either of these two, then who? 

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12 minutes ago, REV-G said:

If it came down to Hamilton or Seth Jones....who would be the better fit? 

 

And if not either of these two, then who? 

 

Well, given that both of them will be getting big contracts, I'd say the better fit is the one they don't have to trade for.

 

Although, they convinced Columbus last year that Domi could be the center they've been looking for. Maybe they can do it again with Drouin? Haha. Maybe playing in a smaller market would ease whatever issues Drouin has.

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