Big Picture Ideas, Questions and Predictions Based on Cap Management, Team Construction and the Theory of Everything

[Commandant]

26 minutes ago, Butterface said:

Anybody got an opinion on this article ?

 

It discusses the signing of Slaf… 

 

https://lastwordonsports.com/hockey/2024/12/24/why-extending-forward-early-was-the-right-move-for-the-canadiens/

 

In it it states:

 

“Almost three years later, Slafkovsky remains the cornerstone for the rebuild’s success.

If the Canadiens rebuild is to have success, they need the Slafkovksy pick to pan out.”

 

I don’t really think the article made its point to why it was a good idea to sign him early. And I don’t think the article is correct pinning the rebuild success on Slafkovsky is true either. He needs to be good, but he doesn’t need to be great.

 

I do think Hughes and Gorton thought 2024-25 would be a breakout year and signing Slaf early was going to be better dollar-wise in the long run… I don’t fault them for that. The article doesn’t really go on to explain logically why it was good to sign Slaf to this much money or for that long a time.

 

The rebuild success does not hinge on Slafkovsky. I do think Demidov, Fowler, Hutson and Reinbacher will have a lot to say about how our rebuild goes. Slaf has not been a disappointment yet. Hutson looks like he is on his way to great things.

 

So that leaves Reinbacher, Demidov and Fowler being the most crucial factors in our rebuild at the moment. I think our success hinges more on these three then Slaf.

 

I think you could easily argue Demidov is more important than Slaf to how our rebuild is measured.

 

I also think our first round of picks in the 2025 draft will be important to stretching our cup window longer. The 3-8 drafts after 2025 won’t nearly have the same chance of finding pay-dirt for us. They will be middle to late picks in the first round and some will be traded away for TDL help.

 

Demidov we will get a good idea next year. The same goes for Reinbacher.. maybe even this Spring Reinbacher will begin playing and we’ll know more then. Fowler has up to four years of playing behind Montembeault before we need him to be the man.

 

So I think saying Slafkovsky will be the sole determinant of this rebuild being successful is pistachio flavoured poop.

 

Not my article (though my site) just for the record.  I do think signing slaf early was the right move as i think that led to.a cheaper deal than a bridge and third contract.

 

That said I also dosagree that hes the most important piece of the rebuild.

[Butterface]

2 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

Not my article (though my site) just for the record.  I do think signing slaf early was the right move as i think that led to.a cheaper deal than a bridge and third contract.

 

That said I also dosagree that hes the most important piece of the rebuild.

Totally agree that based on it looking as though Slaf was about to break out, a bridge deal was risky. I just don’t think the writer expounded on his views as to why it was the right move. So I was left guessing why he chose that as a good deal.

 

 

[tomh009]

On 12/22/2024 at 11:09 PM, Butterface said:

https://www.prohockeyrumors.com/2024/12/canadiens-jake-evans-havent-discussed-extension.html
 

No extension has been discussed so either that means management weren’t expecting to see this huge leap from Evans and they are thinking hard on the matter as it has changed the landscape… or they have a plan without Evans and they are sticking to it…. Or they are shopping him and are weighing the pros and cons of keeping him… in that case they still need at least a dollar figure and a term from Evans’ camp.

Also ... Hughes was just in Russia to see Demidov, so the Evans extension may be something that is on the agenda for after the holidays.

 

Of course, it's also possible that they have decided to go with Beck/Kapanen, and the recent Evans performance just improves the asking price for Evans at TDL.

[Butterface]

1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

Also ... Hughes was just in Russia to see Demidov, so the Evans extension may be something that is on the agenda for after the holidays.

 

Of course, it's also possible that they have decided to go with Beck/Kapanen, and the recent Evans performance just improves the asking price for Evans at TDL.

Going to be some interesting events coming prior to TDL… see what we do.. Calgary, Rangers, Vancouver and then all the teams gearing up for a serious run at the cup.

[GNick]

3 hours ago, tomh009 said:

Also ... Hughes was just in Russia to see Demidov, so the Evans extension may be something that is on the agenda for after the holidays.

 

Of course, it's also possible that they have decided to go with Beck/Kapanen, and the recent Evans performance just improves the asking price for Evans at TDL.

Should get a real decent young player for Evans. Few 2 or 3 rounds picks for Armia, Savard and Dvorak also. To move up in draft. 

[Butterface]

Okay..

 

Here is the first article trying to put a number on Laine.

 

https://www.yardbarker.com/nhl/articles/nhl_analyst_reveals_the_contract_hed_offer_patrik_laine_to_keep_him_in_montreal/s1_17452_41466787

 

“According to Georges Laraque, the Canadiens should take this opportunity to offer Laine a seven-year contract extension worth $7 million per season.“

 

Anybody think this is reasonable ?

 

Too early to tell, but if Laine keeps scoring and we could get that deal, I’d be extremely happy. With Matthews at 13.25M, Marner likely at same or more, Draisaitl at 14M, McDavid at 12.5M and about to go to 16M..?? getting Laine at 7M would be a steal.

 

Yes, I realize he’s injury prone and I realize he’s not as marquee as these guys, but if he continues to roll, and improves 5 on 5, I just don’t think 7M is a reasonable expectation.

 

Laine so far loves Montreal and it appears a good fit for him career-wise, so maybe we can get him on a bit of a discount, but 7M ?? … I doubt it.

 

I guess we wait and see.
 

I have him penciled in at 10M for five years at the moment. His old 8.7M deal expires the end of next season.

 

It’s early, but does anyone want to speculate or you think Georges is correct ?

 

I think Laraque is seeing Gallant again.

[dlbalr]

4 hours ago, Butterface said:

Okay..

 

Here is the first article trying to put a number on Laine.

 

https://www.yardbarker.com/nhl/articles/nhl_analyst_reveals_the_contract_hed_offer_patrik_laine_to_keep_him_in_montreal/s1_17452_41466787

 

“According to Georges Laraque, the Canadiens should take this opportunity to offer Laine a seven-year contract extension worth $7 million per season.“

 

Well, the Habs can't sign him until July 1st at the earliest so presenting him a contract offer more than six months before they're even technically allowed to start negotiations doesn't sound like a particularly good idea on multiple fronts.

[Butterface]

2 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

Well, the Habs can't sign him until July 1st at the earliest so presenting him a contract offer more than six months before they're even technically allowed to start negotiations doesn't sound like a particularly good idea on multiple fronts.

Well aware of that.

 

Projecting whether we will sign Laine and what his term and AAV are will give us insight to what other moves could happen with the rest of the roster.

 

If we don’t sign Laine that means there is a crapload more money to spend. If we do sign Laine, we will need to keep below the cap by shuffling out players.

 

My guess is if we do offer a contract in the summer or into next season, he is going to land between 8.5M and 11M with a contract between 3 and 7 years. This will largely depend on the rest of this season… and any more hockey he plays next year until we make that decision. The shorter the term, the higher the dollars.

 

The other option is to trade him.

 

If he continues on his tear it up it will be hard not to sign him. His goals mean everything to a goal starved team. 
 

I’m going to keep him on the roster at 10M for 5 years until we can come to a consensus that the AAV or term is unlikely or that we think he is more likely to be traded.

 

The reason for these last two posts was to smell what Laraque is cooking. 

 

[Commandant]

I dont take seriously anything that Laraque says.  Let the proven clowns be clowns is my motto.

 

Just being an NHL player doesnt make him qualified to analyze contracts.

 

That number is super low considering its 7 years at a huge paycut from Laines current deal.  Maybe he takes a paycut (though with the cap.rising i doubt it) but even if he does hes not signing a 7 year prove it deal when the cap is rising quickly 

[Butterface]

9 hours ago, Commandant said:

I dont take seriously anything that Laraque says.  Let the proven clowns be clowns is my motto.

Yeah. It does look like he is trying to draw attention to himself by saying something that is outwardly unrealistic. Laraque might be desperate for attention.
 

I think Hughes thought the two years Laine would be in Montreal was the “show me” part. I thought Laine would be asking too much money and term to stay with the team after and would maybe not be the perfect fit. But seeing his performance and how much he likes it here and how much the team and fans enjoy him have softened me. I’m hoping he continues and gives us a slight home discount because of the above. (Especially if Dach ends up being not the guy)

 

If he continues to stay healthy and performs, I expect we’d want a four year deal. One that expires with the Suzuki contract. That way we have the money to re-sign Suzuki if we want, we will have had Laine help us win those last two years of Suzuki’s contract, and if things aren’t working we can pivot with our younger stars and drop one or both of them… or vice versa, we cycle out other expensive younger talent to fit one or both.

 

I’m not sure what length of term Laine might want. The other major stars have opted for 7 and 8 year contracts at this point in their careers. We might find that he wants a longer term deal and if he is playing well like this and has remained healthy, maybe we agree to longer.

 

At the moment I don’t see an AAV less than 10M unless he is in and out of the line up with injuries a lot. Either way, it won’t be much lower and certainly not 7M. On the flip side it could be over my high estimate of 11M if he improves 5 on 5 and continues to dominate on the PP. A 50 goal threat with a few peak years to come might be very expensive. A discount for being his Goldilocks franchise would be great.

[IN THE HEARTS OF MEN]

Who we kidding here. If Laine gets extended, it will likely be as our highest paid player AAV

Hes taking a pay cut? Everyone should give their head a shake if you think he comes anywhere near under the 8.7 he currently makes. 

[dlbalr]

1 hour ago, IN THE HEARTS OF MEN said:

Who we kidding here. If Laine gets extended, it will likely be as our highest paid player AAV

Hes taking a pay cut? Everyone should give their head a shake if you think he comes anywhere near under the 8.7 he currently makes. 

 

If he stays healthy, I agree.  If he winds up missing a bunch of time next year as well, I could see him having to take a short-term deal that could come under that price tag as teams won't commit a long-term deal to someone who misses a bunch of games every year.

[Commandant]

1 hour ago, dlbalr said:

 

If he stays healthy, I agree.  If he winds up missing a bunch of time next year as well, I could see him having to take a short-term deal that could come under that price tag as teams won't commit a long-term deal to someone who misses a bunch of games every year.

 

Sure.

 

But the Laraque deal was 7 years at 7 million.  With that term and a paycut, it is more clownery from a clown.

[Butterface]

Ok. I think we can all agree now. Laraque is out of his mind. I think based on this and Gallant, I will not ask for comments based on anything Laraque offers.

 

I will continue with 5Y at 10M and we’ll get an answer when it comes… or we’ll discuss again when a more reputable source makes a prediction.

[xXx..CK..xXx]

Aleksander Barkov: $10 mil a year average for 8 years ($80 million)

 

Elias Pettersson: $11.6 mil average for 8 years ($92.8)

 

Kyle Connor: $7.124 mil average a year over 7 years ($50 million)(signed in 2019)

 

Statistically (from previous years) these are all players who compare with Laine per 60 minutes played.

 

Laraque’s contract guess is living in 2019. 
 

The habs highest cap hits:

 

Carey Price ($10.5 mil/yr)

Nick Suzuki ($7.88 mil/yr)

Cole Caufield ($7.85 mil/yr)

 

Highest in the league is 13.25 mil (Matthews). (Drai $14 mil next year)
 

Laine will get 10.5 mil a year give or take $500k.

 

Laine will be 28. If it’s with the Habs, I could see Max term with current team 8x10.5 mil ($84 mil) Wouldn’t surprise me if it was slightly higher.

 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

Laine seems like a big injury risk to me and because of that I’m not sure he is getting both big $$ and term. 
 

 

[Butterface]

1 hour ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

Aleksander Barkov: $10 mil a year average for 8 years ($80 million)

 

Elias Pettersson: $11.6 mil average for 8 years ($92.8)

 

Kyle Connor: $7.124 mil average a year over 7 years ($50 million)(signed in 2019)

 

Statistically (from previous years) these are all players who compare with Laine per 60 minutes played.

 

Laraque’s contract guess is living in 2019. 
 

The habs highest cap hits:

 

Carey Price ($10.5 mil/yr)

Nick Suzuki ($7.88 mil/yr)

Cole Caufield ($7.85 mil/yr)

 

Highest in the league is 13.25 mil (Matthews). (Drai $14 mil next year)
 

Laine will get 10.5 mil a year give or take $500k.

 

Laine will be 28. If it’s with the Habs, I could see Max term with current team 8x10.5 mil ($84 mil) Wouldn’t surprise me if it was slightly higher.

 

Not going to disagree.

[Butterface]

24 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

Laine seems like a big injury risk to me and because of that I’m not sure he is getting both big $$ and term. 
 

 

Can’t disagree here either.

 

We’ll see how it plays out.

 

For now I’m happy with my guesstimate.

[alfredoh2009]

16 hours ago, Butterface said:

Can’t disagree here either.

 

We’ll see how it plays out.

 

For now I’m happy with my guesstimate.

 

IMHO, Slafkovsky will be the best investment for the point production he will bring, annually surpassing Laine's because of how many games he will miss each year.

I want them to "ride" Laine for as long as he stays hot and shows the Habbies how to score. If there is a trade where Laine is happy and the return is reasonable, I will do it but I will be as happy to just let him walk unsigned after his contract is done.

He is fun to watch, and he will be young enough when he is up for a contract, but I mush rather invest in a top RD than on a player for which Slafkovsky and Caufield should fill in.

[Butterface]

I don’t think they’ll let him walk without getting something from somebody after the 2025-26 season. Although it might be made more difficult with a 10 team no trade list he has in his back pocket… I just don’t see how they’d let an asset like that go without a return.

 

However, if they sign him for a few years longer while we “go for it” .. maybe they could consider him a rental to ourselves in his last contract year when a cup is on the line. 
 

Laine’s shot is only comparable to a prime Ovy or Stamkos from that spot … Caufield is the closest on our team, but the accuracy and velocity of Laine is insane …

 

I hope Slaf keeps growing into this contract.. if he can do what Necas has done I’ll be pumped. I hope Laine stays healthy, if he can’t then perhaps re-signing him is too risky… injuries being one thing and mental health being a total other monster.

[alfredoh2009]

Laine is a good player, no argument from me there. Despite his health history he gives the team a chance to win each game.

From a salary cap and roster balance perspective, I would go with Slaf, Demidov and Caufield as my snipers and build the backend with them in mind 

[BCHabnut]

5 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

Laine is a good player, no argument from me there. Despite his health history he gives the team a chance to win each game.

From a salary cap and roster balance perspective, I would go with Slaf, Demidov and Caufield as my snipers and build the backend with them in mind 

I actually haven't seen any evidence of the good player. Superstar quality shooter, which counts for a whole lot, but he is playing the shits. He hasn't played much in 2 years, so hopefully we see improvements over the next 50 games.

[xXx..CK..xXx]

7 hours ago, BCHabnut said:

I actually haven't seen any evidence of the good player. Superstar quality shooter, which counts for a whole lot, but he is playing the shits. He hasn't played much in 2 years, so hopefully we see improvements over the next 50 games.

I’m a huge Caufield fan and hyped him up the most on these boards when I compared him to goal scorers like Matthews and Kessel (only in terms of goal scoring ability) even prior to his rookie season but when Laine is on the ice, even Caufield’s sniping ability is overshadowed by Patrik in my opinion. Laine is on another level. He’s our best producer since Kovalev. With that being said, I agree (and he does as well) that his 5 on 5 play has indeed been mediocre at best. He is to a certain extent a specialist on the power play but history shows he can get his points 5 on 5 as well so I am hopeful as well that this will improve over the rest of the season and next year as well. It’s not an excuse but playing with Dach and Newhook is a test in its own as they haven’t been producing either, so it’s a little bit of a perfect storm in that area.

 

Lastly, (not directed towards the quote) while I agree management would take it into consideration and he’s already had his injuries with us, I am not convinced that this is an automatic thing that Laine will miss 30 games a year for the rest of his career. He could just as easily have a 75 game season all of a sudden. While it’s a risk, it’s still not out of the realm of possibility. The fact it’s happened a few years in his career is certainly an indicator but at only 26, I don’t think injuries necessarily define the next 10 years of his career just simply because that’s what has happened to him in the past and even the present.

[hab29RETIRED]

On 12/27/2024 at 9:57 AM, alfredoh2009 said:

 

IMHO, Slafkovsky will be the best investment for the point production he will bring, annually surpassing Laine's because of how many games he will miss each year.

I want them to "ride" Laine for as long as he stays hot and shows the Habbies how to score. If there is a trade where Laine is happy and the return is reasonable, I will do it but I will be as happy to just let him walk unsigned after his contract is done.

He is fun to watch, and he will be young enough when he is up for a contract, but I mush rather invest in a top RD than on a player for which Slafkovsky and Caufield should fill in.

Not sure he can show them how to score- unless they can learn to shoot like him, or develop a shot like his.Which is highly unlikely.

 

his shot is elite. That's what makes him a great scorer. That can't be taught. What he can do, once his conditioning gets better is make players around him better 5 on 5. If he stays healthy he should be resigned. Overall skill wise he is a step down, but he'd be like the Panarin signing was for NYR.

 

 

[alfredoh2009]

1 hour ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Not sure he can show them how to score- unless they can learn to shoot like him, or develop a shot like his.Which is highly unlikely.

 

his shot is elite. That's what makes him a great scorer. That can't be taught. What he can do, once his conditioning gets better is make players around him better 5 on 5. If he stays healthy he should be resigned. Overall skill wise he is a step down, but he'd be like the Panarin signing was for NYR.

 

 

 

where he positions himself in the ice for the quick release. Slaf's wrist shot is deadly. He can also learn how to stay in the play longer instead of turning his back to the play. I find that Laine is always open to receive a pass where Slaf sometimes skates away from the play