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What goes around comes around Carolina pay back Kotkaniemi offer sheet


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Another factor is how the expectations (his, teams', fans') attached to a $6.1 million salary will impact KK's development ... will it add even more pressure than he was already going to face with becoming the 2C?

 

It is a very complex decision for MB et al.

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2 hours ago, GHT120 said:

How do they "end up with KK"?   KK would be a RFA next summer and the habs would try to get a reasonable extension or trade him before July 1st ... no guarantee he ends up in Carolina unless they (a) trade for him or (b) KK goes RFA and they again send him a ridiculous offer sheet (in a summer they have Niederreiter & Trochek as UFAs and  Necas, Bear & Deangelo as RFAs) 

If we match, then next summer his QO will be 6 million. 

We can try to get a reasonable extension but why do you think he would take that instead of becoming a UFA?  Unless KK breaks out this year I don't see us paying him 6 million for 22-23 season.  If we don't offer him 6 million he can choose to become a UFA.

 

  Maybe he would accept a long term deal at 5 million AAV but (1) I am not sure he accepts that without testing the market and (2) he is unlikely to be have convinced the Habs he is worth such a deal by next summer especially with our other RFA's needs.

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1 minute ago, Peter Puck said:

If we match, then next summer his QO will be 6 million. 

We can try to get a reasonable extension but why do you think he would take that instead of becoming a UFA?  Unless KK breaks out this year I don't see us paying him 6 million for 22-23 season.  If we don't offer him 6 million he can choose to become a UFA.

If he breaks out this season, the $6M might be much less unreasonable. If he doesn't, Bergevin could let him walk -- in that case he would have effectively spent the (Carolina) late 1st/3rd picks on having Kotkaniemi play for the Habs as a one-year rental.

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38 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

It would take a lot more than Carolina's 1st round pick to get Dubois. A lot more. 

I'm just saying it for an example... The point I'm trying to make is if you take the first you then have to 1st round picks you can package in a trade to get a top center or you can trade one of those 1st round picks to get a 2nd line center but you would have to add prospects in any deal. 

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26 minutes ago, Peter Puck said:

... If we don't offer him 6 million he can choose to become a UFA ...

Pretty certain he cannot be a UFA until July 2025 (7 yrs pro and 25 yrs-old).

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15 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

I'll play devils advocate here.  Why does Kotkaniemi agree to 8 x $5.5M when he can just take $6.1 per year as a qualifying offer for three years (more if he had a good season and went to arbitration) and walk to free agency?  The idea of signing him for cheaper sounds nice in principle but in reality, it's a tough sell for the player knowing that qualifying offer is what it's going to be.

i think he would be happy with Drouin money on a long term contract long term ... 6x3=18 but 6+8x5.5=50 ... i dont think he will hit 50mil career wise as quick... not tring to be a bum but yeah  

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9 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Pretty certain he cannot be a UFA until July 2025 (7 yrs pro and 25 yrs-old).

No, he is entitled to a qualifying offer of over 6 million (they could try to reduce this to 5 million but that is unlikely).  If his team (us or the Canes) doesn't offer him that he becomes a UFA immediately.  

 

This is the real problem with this offer sheet.  It effectively establishes his salary at at least 6 million for the next 4 years.

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16 hours ago, GHT120 said:

 

I believe that they can only match the offer sheet or let him go ... any extension could only be done in January ... who knows what would happen then.

I would try a hand shake deal regardless... I dont think Canes wanna give up picks just to get a player 1 year and I dont think they would gv KK 18milly over 3 yrs either... If I was MB I would try the same, hand shake deal for an 8yr extension with Drouin money + the 6milly live this year

(edit) well if the play is to absolutely keep him but I will hold to let him walk

 

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2 minutes ago, Peter Puck said:

No, he is entitled to a qualifying offer of over 6 million (they could try to reduce this to 5 million but that is unlikely).  If his team (us or the Canes) doesn't offer him that he becomes a UFA immediately.  

 

This is the real problem with this offer sheet.  It effectively establishes his salary at 6 million for the next 4 years.

Wasn't factoring in the team deciding to let him become a free agent ... 

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33 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Pretty certain he cannot be a UFA until July 2025 (7 yrs pro and 25 yrs-old).

 

Sure he can if he isn't given a qualifying offer next year. That's how restricted free agency works.

 

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26 minutes ago, Peter Puck said:

This is the real problem with this offer sheet.  It effectively establishes his salary at at least 6 million for the next 4 years.

 

Only if he is content to play on a series of one year deals, which most pro athletes are not willing to do when given the option of a longer term deal that is fair. Especially in contact sports where you are always on hit away from being done. Or one bad season from making league minimum. It's like how NFLers almost never agree to be franchise tagged multiple times. They make more money per year that way, but the lack of years of guaranteed money influences them to take multi-year deals that net less money.

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4 hours ago, dlbalr said:

 

Carolina doesn't have a magic money fountain.  They already have over $56 million tied up in 12 players for 2022-23; I don't think they can make the money work to add a $10 million player in there.  Besides, it looks like Aho is their internal limit for highest salary based on the Svechnikov contract and the low-balling of Hamilton.

 

 

Dvorak is definitely available although the asking price is believed to be a 1st and a 1st-equivalent prospect. 

 

Evgeny Kuznetsov has been in trade speculation for a while although he carries a $7.8M cap hit for four years; the Habs would need to send a significant salary offset back. 

 

I know Sean Monahan is available (he has been for months now) although without a centre to move back, I don't know how reasonable that option would be. 

 

The Strome brothers are available.  Dylan doesn't really have a spot in Chicago but has a $3.6M qualifying offer next summer that looks a little pricey.  He has been shopped for a while now.  Ryan is the Rangers' number two centre and isn't in their long-term plans.  If they were getting Eichel and needed to move money, that could be a stopgap though not an ideal one.

 

Alex Kerfoot in Toronto might be available but I'm not sure the Leafs would want to move him to a division rival.  He's more of a 3C than a 2C (and they're going to probably use him on the wing as it stands).

 

Chris Tierney is someone that has played the type of stopgap role they might have to settle for but he's more of a 3 than a 2.

 

 

Players lose friends all the time in professional sports due to trades or someone leaving in free agency.  Kotkaniemi wouldn't use that as a reason to sign the offer sheet.  His reason is simple - he's going to get about 2.5x his actual value for next season with the $6.1 million contract.  It's hard to pass that up.


For a young Finish guy, that may be known beforehand, but never really experienced.

 

Professional sports in North America is different from Europe. The player chooses, they are not commodities that can be traded.

 

Losing Mete, and have the chance to join Aho and Teravainen is most likely a factor, just not sure how much.

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19 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

It's amazing how quickly the knives come out for MB just because Carolina makes an offer sheet. Didn't the Habs make the Stanley Cup final last year?

haters will hate :spamafote:

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My 2 cents. 
 

I love KK and I think he will be a 2C. But he isn’t now. 
 

Good for him to get paid, even if it’s overpayment - that’s not his fault or problem. 
 

but I’m a Habs fan first.

 

i say let him go. 
 

Habs were already too inexperienced at C and to bring someone in meant someone needed to sit. Suzuki wasn’t going to move or be sat. Evans/Poehling/Paquette can handle 3rd/4th/depth C. (Admittedly hoping Evans is adequate this season as 3rd line C)

 

the issue going into the season was 2nd line C anyways. KK was the one that needed to go. Suzuki, Evans, Poehling are all either valued (Suzuki) or affordable (Evans, Poehling).  We needed a vet 2nd line player to take pressure off of Suzuki. 
 

So let KK walk and use the picks or prospects to go get a 2nd line C. The team may overlay a little in the trade, but it’s better than overpaying by 3 mil in the cap era for KK. 
 

sorry Canes - you can enjoy the consequences of the cap mess you just made for yourselves

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I was off internet for a while and I come back to THIS!

 

How interesting, with the 2022 draft in Montreal next year, I would take the 1st and 3rd pick and walk away from Kotkaniemi.

His performance this year was already the maker/breaker for the Habs to be in the playoffs, and I much rather take the picks than to go into the season riding on an unproven 21 year old.

 

3 hours ago, sbhatt said:

The more I think about it, the more I'm pleased with it (assuming MB does the right thing and takes the picks).  I felt we needed an upgrade at 2C, and have very little hope that KK can become a solid 2C.  IMO packaging up those picks and a prospect to acquire an upgraded 2C makes the team better.

 

I agree with you, the extra picks and the prospect pool depth at LD gives the Habs an opportunity to upgrade their 2C and to take a gamble at 3C with Dea, Poehling, Perrault or whoever can fill that hole for one season.

 

I think Kotkaniemi was already playing well at the 3C level, but his low FO% numbers and tendency to "fall like bambi all over the ice" and lack of extra gear makes it easier to accept him leaving.

The fact that he signed the $20 bonus offer sheet shows that he doesn't give a f*ck

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If the Habs offersheet for one of these centres for about 5.5M-$6.1M, they loose their 1st round pick and their third; but gain a decent centre back without loosing picks in the 2022 draft:

Elias Pettersson, Casey Mittelstadt

 

the Habs could offer sheet for these players, for less than $4.1M (second draft pick lost)

Nolan Patrick, Logan Brown
 

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53 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

haters will hate :spamafote:

Ok - off season so far.

1. 1st round puck - fail

2. Upgrading the D - fail 

3. losses vs gains from last year - fail

4.when most teams are making room, to avoid RFA offer sheets, or signing their RFA’s -MB gets caught with his pants down - fail 

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The more and more I look into the trickle down effect if we match it, it's to much for us to match it. What I mean is what I have said earlier if we match Kotkaniemi offer sheet at 6.1mil then price goes up for Suzuki and Caufeild contracts.

Kotkaniemi at 6.1 

Suzuki over 7mil

Caufeild over 6mil 

That's going to be at least 19mil  long term on 3 forwards.  If we don't match Suzuki and Caufeild's contracts would be much lower and manageable. 

 

On a side note was reading that Carolina was trying to trade for Kotkaniemi for awhile now but couldn't come to an agreement with Bergevin on a trade, so that's why they did the offer sheet.

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47 minutes ago, revvvrob said:

My 2 cents. 
 

I love KK and I think he will be a 2C. But he isn’t now. 
 

Good for him to get paid, even if it’s overpayment - that’s not his fault or problem. 
 

but I’m a Habs fan first.

 

i say let him go. 
 

Habs were already too inexperienced at C and to bring someone in meant someone needed to sit. Suzuki wasn’t going to move or be sat. Evans/Poehling/Paquette can handle 3rd/4th/depth C. (Admittedly hoping Evans is adequate this season as 3rd line C)

 

the issue going into the season was 2nd line C anyways. KK was the one that needed to go. Suzuki, Evans, Poehling are all either valued (Suzuki) or affordable (Evans, Poehling).  We needed a vet 2nd line player to take pressure off of Suzuki. 
 

So let KK walk and use the picks or prospects to go get a 2nd line C. The team may overlay a little in the trade, but it’s better than overpaying by 3 mil in the cap era for KK. 
 

sorry Canes - you can enjoy the consequences of the cap mess you just made for yourselves

How many quality bonafide  top 2 centres centres have we drafted in the last 25 years??


In my opinion - two. Pleks and Ribeiro. Ribeiro had character issues and was traded for less than a bag of pucks.

 

Danault was a trade pickup.

 

KK is the first MB pick that has the potential to be a top two centres in his 8 years on the job.  

 

Now poof!  Abradacabra-hocus-picks, alakazam-ala-kazoo in the name of the great gazoo, he is suddenly going to draft a top 2 centre with a pick from the acanes that will likely be in the 20’s???

 

Really???

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No way - I don’t believe you use the picks to draft a center - trade for the 2C we need. Make it so. I’d rather lose a prospect than use the cap space poorly. 

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47 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I was off internet for a while and I come back to THIS!

 

How interesting, with the 2022 draft in Montreal next year, I would take the 1st and 3rd pick and walk away from Kotkaniemi.

His performance this year was already the maker/breaker for the Habs to be in the playoffs, and I much rather take the picks than to go into the season riding on an unproven 21 year old.

 

 

I agree with you, the extra picks and the prospect pool depth at LD gives the Habs an opportunity to upgrade their 2C and to take a gamble at 3C with Dea, Poehling, Perrault or whoever can fill that hole for one season.

 

I think Kotkaniemi was already playing well at the 3C level, but his low FO% numbers and tendency to "fall like bambi all over the ice" and lack of extra gear makes it easier to accept him leaving.

The fact that he signed the $20 bonus offer sheet shows that he doesn't give a f*ck

Yeah, signing a $20 bonus is HUGE insult. Dumb of him to demand more of the guaranteed $6m salary as a bonus - instead of signing before Waddell scan say screw you MB 🙄

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28 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

If the Habs offersheet for one of these centres for about 5.5M-$6.1M, they loose their 1st round pick and their third; but gain a decent centre back without loosing picks in the 2022 draft:

Elias Pettersson, Casey Mittelstadt

 

the Habs could offer sheet for these players, for less than $4.1M (second draft pick lost)

Nolan Patrick, Logan Brown
 

it seems to me the offer sheet is a play u pull for hate... since the start of it, Oil cans and Penner after he Ducks win. Yet I enjoy the h8 hockey clubs can get for one another alot :D

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43 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

If the Habs offersheet for one of these centres for about 5.5M-$6.1M, they loose their 1st round pick and their third; but gain a decent centre back without loosing picks in the 2022 draft:

Elias Pettersson, Casey Mittelstadt

 

the Habs could offer sheet for these players, for less than $4.1M (second draft pick lost)

Nolan Patrick, Logan Brown

 

Pettersson's price will be well above that $6.1M threshold, even on a bridge deal.  And Vancouver has a fair bit of cap room; they'll match.

 

Mittelstadt is someone that should be around $2M at most, Patrick less than that, and Brown should be signing the type of deal that Poehling did.  Buffalo has ample cap space to match for Mittelstadt while Ottawa would match on Brown out of principle (though he has been available in a trade for the better part of a year).  Patrick is a bit more of a viable target as Vegas has cap issues but he's coming off a horrific season after not playing the year before.  He's basically a fourth liner at this point.

 

All of these players would cost picks from 2022.

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26 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

Ok - off season so far.

1. 1st round puck - fail

2. Upgrading the D - fail 

3. losses vs gains from last year - fail

4.when most teams are making room, to avoid RFA offer sheets, or signing their RFA’s -MB gets caught with his pants down - fail 

Retain Allen - check

Fill in for Weber - check (upgrade from Weber was always a long shot)

Add some scoring - check

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