Top 25/prospect pipeline

[tomh009]

So, EOTP finished their "top 25 under 25" rankings, and in the meantime, Corey Pronman assessed the Habs' prospect pipeline as #6 in the league. Spent a bit of time compiling the two together:

 

 

There are some significant differences (more on those later), but the top seven players (including Suzuki) are pretty consistently assessed--and even consistent within the EOTP editors' rankings. Suzuki, Caufield, Dach and Slafkovsky up front, and Guhle, Reinbacher and Hutson on D. That may not be enough yet to contend, but it's a solid young core to build around.

 

In the next tier, we have Newhook, Roy, Beck and Barron (Pronman actually had Barron at #7, ahead of Hutson), who are more likely to be middle-six/middle-pair players. I'm personally encouraged by seeing Beck this high in both rankings (top 10 in both).

 

Further down, Pronman ranked Mailloux as "has a chance to play", based on the NHL not having made a decision yet when he wrote up the rankings, but he had Xhekaj surprisingly high at #12, and Mysak at #13, both ahead of Kidney, heineman and Mesar. I do think that in the lower part of the ratings the EOTP editors may be closer to the mark than Pronman: the latter ranked all 32 teams' prospects, and cannot possibly have had time to watch the lesser prospects for any length of time.

 

All of this is based on personal evaluations and assessments, of course, and reality is still another month away. However, at least those rankings made good reading in the dog days of August and then some.

 

[DON]

Not sold that Dach will become a big time centre....get that ol Eller ish feeling?

Which would be 'fine', i guess.

[Prime Minister Koivu]

I’m horned up by Slafkovsky being projected as an all star/ top line player. 
 

Please be true!

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

1 hour ago, DON said:

Not sold that Dach will become a big time centre....get that ol Eller ish feeling?

Which would be 'fine', i guess.

 

I don't see the comparison at all with Eller who turned into a good 3rd line centre although more was hoped for offensively. Dach is much more skilled with the puck and bigger.  Eller's best year was 39 pts, Dach scored 38 points in 58 games last year.  My only concern with Dach is staying healthy.  If he stays healthy then he will blow away Eller's stats. 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

13 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

I don't see the comparison at all with Eller who turned into a good 3rd line centre although more was hoped for offensively. Dach is much more skilled with the puck and bigger.  Eller's best year was 39 pts, Dach scored 38 points in 58 games last year.  My only concern with Dach is staying healthy.  If he stays healthy then he will blow away Eller's stats. 

 

I don't see anything inevitable about Dach. I mean, I incline toward optimism in his case, but I think the Eller comparable is nevertheless plausible.

 

We've had lots of players go through limited stretches where they looked poised to become impact offensive producers. Eller went on runs for a few weeks where he did indeed look like the 2nd-line C we hoped he'd become. (He was on one of those runs when he got crushed in the Ottawa playoff). It turns out those runs were an illusion. Richard Zednik seemed to be blossoming into a 1st-line W when he got injured and never got back to that place. His hot spells were smoke and mirrors. Galy had that 30-goal year. Even KK would go on these streaks where we would get excited and people would be talking about how his growth into a stud C was inevitable. Bulis. Danius Zubrus. Hell, I remember Russ Courtnall putting together a stellar season for us and everyone thinking we could now book him as an all-star FW going forward. Turns out that was just a freak, peak year.

 

Often, in fact, injuries are the line of demarcation that end a player's hot spell, and he never really gets back to pre-injury form. It's not that the player is damaged goods. It's that the injury knocks him off the perch he was on and he can't quite get back up there consistently, because it was an unsustainable run to begin with.

 

Is this Dach? I don't think so, and I hope not. But it could well be. There are few inevitabilities with young players and prospects.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

I don't see anything inevitable about Dach. I mean, I incline toward optimism in his case, but I think the Eller comparable is nevertheless plausible.

 

We've had lots of players go through limited stretches where they looked poised to become impact offensive producers. Eller went on runs for a few weeks where he did indeed look like the 2nd-line C we hoped he'd become. (He was on one of those runs when he got crushed in the Ottawa playoff). It turns out those runs were an illusion. Richard Zednik seemed to be blossoming into a 1st-line W when he got injured and never got back to that place. His hot spells were smoke and mirrors. Galy had that 30-goal year. Even KK would go on these streaks where we would get excited and people would be talking about how his growth into a stud C was inevitable. Bulis. Danius Zubrus. Hell, I remember Russ Courtnall putting together a stellar season for us and everyone thinking we could now book him as an all-star FW going forward. Turns out that was just a freak, peak year.

 

Often, in fact, injuries are the line of demarcation that end a player's hot spell, and he never really gets back to pre-injury form. It's not that the player is damaged goods. It's that the injury knocks him off the perch he was on and he can't quite get back up there consistently, because it was an unsustainable run to begin with.

 

Is this Dach? I don't think so, and I hope not. But it could well be. There are few inevitabilities with young players and prospects.

 

Nothing is inevitable. I am obviously higher on Dach than most as he looked dominant at times last year. There were times when he seemed to own the puck, never saw that with Eller although Eller had a couple stretches where the puck went in a lot.  My concern with Dach is staying healthy as it seems like he has had his share of injuries in a short career, maybe just a fluke I hope. 

[BCHabnut]

47 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

Nothing is inevitable. I am obviously higher on Dach than most as he looked dominant at times last year. There were times when he seemed to own the puck, never saw that with Eller although Eller had a couple stretches where the puck went in a lot.  My concern with Dach is staying healthy as it seems like he has had his share of injuries in a short career, maybe just a fluke I hope. 

I'm with you. I just think dach has all of the tools and if his health and confidence can stat strong, I'm big on him. Love to see his f/o % reach mid 40s this year. 

[tomh009]

I added the 2022-23 HW prospects rankings as well. I believe Brian did the rankings earlin last season so they are year old and are more useful in showing the progression of the prospects rather than as a strict comparison with the other two rankings.

 

 

What's noteworthy here is the rise of Hutson at the top of the rankings (OK, we all knew that was happening) and then Roy, Engstrom and RHP at the nest level. Is Engstrom the real deal? Will he be able to adapt to the speed of the NHL, or is Pronman's skepticism warranted?

 

On the other hand, Mesar has slid well down the list (not a surprise given his OHL season) as have Farrell, Struble and Dobes. Will any of them be able to turn things around this coming season?

 

[dlbalr]

42 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

I added the 2022-23 HW prospects rankings as well. I believe Brian did the rankings earlin last season so they are year old and are more useful in showing the progression of the prospects rather than as a strict comparison with the other two rankings.

 

Yep, they were done early last season.  I suspect I'll be sitting down after training camp to put those together for the upcoming season.  I might have to tweak our GP criteria a bit too as there are clearly some regulars that still qualify based on our GP total.

[Commandant]

8 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

I don't see anything inevitable about Dach. I mean, I incline toward optimism in his case, but I think the Eller comparable is nevertheless plausible.

 

We've had lots of players go through limited stretches where they looked poised to become impact offensive producers. Eller went on runs for a few weeks where he did indeed look like the 2nd-line C we hoped he'd become. (He was on one of those runs when he got crushed in the Ottawa playoff). It turns out those runs were an illusion. Richard Zednik seemed to be blossoming into a 1st-line W when he got injured and never got back to that place. His hot spells were smoke and mirrors. Galy had that 30-goal year. Even KK would go on these streaks where we would get excited and people would be talking about how his growth into a stud C was inevitable. Bulis. Danius Zubrus. Hell, I remember Russ Courtnall putting together a stellar season for us and everyone thinking we could now book him as an all-star FW going forward. Turns out that was just a freak, peak year.

 

Often, in fact, injuries are the line of demarcation that end a player's hot spell, and he never really gets back to pre-injury form. It's not that the player is damaged goods. It's that the injury knocks him off the perch he was on and he can't quite get back up there consistently, because it was an unsustainable run to begin with.

 

Is this Dach? I don't think so, and I hope not. But it could well be. There are few inevitabilities with young players and prospects.

 

Dach had 38 points in 58 games playing well both early in the season as a winger with Suzuki/caufield and later in the year when anchored his own line.

 

Almost every night his line was the best possession line on the team, both when he was with suz/cauf and when he was centring his own line.

 

Hes not eller.  

 

I am gonna say something bold here but I think there is more chance that given his age he passes suzuki and becomes the 1a in our 1a/1b centre situation than he falls into a third line role 

 

I think we stole him out of chicago and this might be Hughes best move when all is said and done.

 

Ive tried to be cautious on him but as i rewatched a lot of last season, Im seeing a dominant force in the neutral zone thats about to break out.

[DON]

Seems like most folks are pretty high in Dach.

Love to see 51+pts but am guessing lower. 

Fantasy Focus: Kirby Dach – HabsWorld.net

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

44 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

Dach had 38 points in 58 games playing well both early in the season as a winger with Suzuki/caufield and later in the year when anchored his own line.

 

Almost every night his line was the best possession line on the team, both when he was with suz/cauf and when he was centring his own line.

 

Hes not eller.  

 

I am gonna say something bold here but I think there is more chance that given his age he passes suzuki and becomes the 1a in our 1a/1b centre situation than he falls into a third line role 

 

I think we stole him out of chicago and this might be Hughes best move when all is said and done.

 

Ive tried to be cautious on him but as i rewatched a lot of last season, Im seeing a dominant force in the neutral zone thats about to break out.

 

Good post, thanks. 

 

You know me, I'm always cautious about youngsters who haven't actually proven anything. Nevertheless, as I've stated repeatedly, I'm cautiously optimistic about Dach. And if he 'breaks out' as a 'dominant force' in terms of possession, that will be FANTASTIC.

[Commandant]

35 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Good post, thanks. 

 

You know me, I'm always cautious about youngsters who haven't actually proven anything. Nevertheless, as I've stated repeatedly, I'm cautiously optimistic about Dach. And if he 'breaks out' as a 'dominant force' in terms of possession, that will be FANTASTIC.

 

Hes already dominant in terms of possession, in the same way Danault was.  Over 58 games, its no accident or small sample.

 

The goal now will be converting that possession into.production and given he was on a 53 point pace on a terrible team at age 21, i think he could do it. 

 

Note im not saying he WILL pass Suzuki.  Im saying to me that is more likely than seeing him become Eller.

 

I think we have our 1/2 punch down the middle for a long time. 

 

Hughes found a top 6 centre via trade in his first off-season.  It took Bergy how long to find Suzuki? 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

We are ALL hoping that Dach has a great season. It will make his contract look even better. I don't get Chicago giving up on him so soon as he was certainly young enough to be part of their rebuild. 

[alfredoh2009]

On 9/2/2023 at 3:43 PM, tomh009 said:

I added the 2022-23 HW prospects rankings as well. I believe Brian did the rankings earlin last season so they are year old and are more useful in showing the progression of the prospects rather than as a strict comparison with the other two rankings.

 

 

What's noteworthy here is the rise of Hutson at the top of the rankings (OK, we all knew that was happening) and then Roy, Engstrom and RHP at the nest level. Is Engstrom the real deal? Will he be able to adapt to the speed of the NHL, or is Pronman's skepticism warranted?

 

On the other hand, Mesar has slid well down the list (not a surprise given his OHL season) as have Farrell, Struble and Dobes. Will any of them be able to turn things around this coming season?

 

great job Tom.

 

makes me want to say this again: I really really like Beck. I can't wait to see how he progresses with that "long simmer arch" in development he is going through

[DON]

Nice depth at least, but how many actual NHL all-stars will come from this group? 

Caufield, Hutson, Reinbacher?

 

2023 Montreal Canadiens Top 25 Under 25: All-Star Team - Habs Eyes on the Prize

[TurdBurglar]

12 hours ago, DON said:

Nice depth at least, but how many actual NHL all-stars will come from this group? 

Caufield, Hutson, Reinbacher?

 

2023 Montreal Canadiens Top 25 Under 25: All-Star Team - Habs Eyes on the Prize

I think calling Hutson a future all-star is a stretch.  I doubt very much he will be an all-star.  If he can carry his offense to the NHL, he may top out on the 2nd pair.  I really believe he's too small to be an effective top-pairing defenseman unless his stick-work defensively is something we've not seen from a defenseman yet in the NHL.  His size will get exploited vs most forwards at that level. 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

56 minutes ago, TurdBurglar said:

I think calling Hutson a future all-star is a stretch.  I doubt very much he will be an all-star.  If he can carry his offense to the NHL, he may top out on the 2nd pair.  I really believe he's too small to be an effective top-pairing defenseman unless his stick-work defensively is something we've not seen from a defenseman yet in the NHL.  His size will get exploited vs most forwards at that level. 

 

Same height as the fabulous Quinn Hughes, isn’t he? Hughes is a #1 if ever there was.

[Helmethead]

7 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Same height as the fabulous Quinn Hughes, isn’t he? Hughes is a #1 if ever there was.

Exactement monsieur..!!

[DON]

my point was that, there are few 'all-star' canditates and there you go.

So are maybe just 2 in the group, sure seems about right? 2 or 3 maybe at most?

[GHT120]

10 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Same height as the fabulous Quinn Hughes, isn’t he? Hughes is a #1 if ever there was.

Same height, but BU is listing Hughes at 155 lbs (Wikipedia* claiming 161, or 11 stone 7 lbs), while Canucks list Hughes at 180.

 

* - I'm guessing Lane, someone in the Hutson clan or his agent updates Wiki every time he puts on a pound ... or 161 is before he went hiking and he didn't take his boots off.

[GHT120]

9 hours ago, DON said:

my point was that, there are few 'all-star' candidates and there you go.

So are maybe just 2 in the group, sure seems about right? 2 or 3 maybe at most?

 

All-star is an imprecise term ... the All-Star Game is a worthless measure IMO (John Scott made it) and there are only 12 year-end NHL all-stars amongst 650+ NHL players ... but I would agree there are few elite (Top 6/Top Pairing/Starting Goaltender) prospects in the group.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

11 hours ago, DON said:

my point was that, there are few 'all-star' canditates and there you go.

So are maybe just 2 in the group, sure seems about right? 2 or 3 maybe at most?

 

You’re quite right that it would be a rarity. What I hear about Hutson, though, suggests that he just might have the off-the-chart skills needed to pull off the trick. You can imagine him paired with a big, intelligent RD like Reinbacher and watching the sparks fly. Who knows. Also, we have a coach who understands better than anyone else what it takes to become a ‘star’ while profoundly undersized. That won’t hurt either.

[Commandant]

Johnny Gaudreau was 150 lbs in college and is 165 now.   Seems to have worked out for him.

 

If you have the skill, you have the skill, and Hutson literally had the best season by an 18 year old freshman NCAA defenceman since the 1980s, and much like all hockey, its a little harder to put up points in 2023 than it was in the 1980s.  

 

Does that guarantee anything? Of course not. 

 

Does it show that his potential ceiling is an all-star?  Yes, 100%

[GHT120]

3 hours ago, Commandant said:

Johnny Gaudreau was 150 lbs in college and is 165 now.   Seems to have worked out for him ...

 

 

Slightly easier for a forward ... but it can be done, and hopefully will be by Hutson.