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2023-24 NHL discussion thread


tomh009

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Play like a Pee-Wee for Celebrini

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Nightmare scenario in Vancouver as it sounds like Pettersson wants out like Tkachuk did from Calgary.

 

One of HuGort's toughest tasks is to offset all the extra baggage of playing in a Canadian market and to make stars want to stay.

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3 minutes ago, Neech said:

Nightmare scenario in Vancouver as it sounds like Pettersson wants out like Tkachuk did from Calgary.

 

One of HuGort's toughest tasks is to offset all the extra baggage of playing in a Canadian market and to make stars want to stay.

 

Is there any evidence he wants out, though? All we've really heard is 

 

1. He wants to be on a winning team

2. He doesn't want to talk contract until the season is over.

 

Insiders have reported that he doesn't like all the speculation and chatter about his contract, suggestive of a guy who isn't crazy about an amped-up media environment; but it doesn't follow that that will be the deciding factor.

 

If I were a Canucks fan, I'd be concerned...but not panicking just yet.

 

(One thing that probably doesn't help is the shockingly high proportion of fans who declare that "you can never win" with Petterson, that he's not a complete player, that he's not worth a massive contract, etc. We should remember that this is the same city whose "fans" whined non-stop about "the Sedin sisters" all the way up to 2011 🙄).  

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I didn’t realize the expected goals for the Habs- Yotes game yesterday was predicting an ARZ win

 

 

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2 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

I didn’t realize the expected goals for the Habs- Yotes game yesterday was predicting an ARZ win

 

I would have been shocked if it was saying otherwise.  That was one of Montreal's lousier games in a while.

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2 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

ah! the often dismissed but sometimes sooo telling of a teams performance ! the "+/-"

 

Say what you want about +/-, but I always believed it was a relevant statistic when it comes to egregious outliers. E.g., if I'm -25 and everyone else on my team is a +, that is probably telling us something meaningful about my suckage.

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1 minute ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Say what you want about +/-, but I always believed it was a relevant statistic when it comes to egregious outliers. E.g., if I'm -25 and everyone else on my team is a +, that is probably telling us something meaningful about my suckage.

 

same here.

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1 minute ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Say what you want about +/-, but I always believed it was a relevant statistic when it comes to egregious outliers. E.g., if I'm -25 and everyone else on my team is a +, that is probably telling us something meaningful about my suckage.

 

I agree, it's not perfect but useful for outliers. Montreal was a 500 team for a long time but huge on the minus side. The plus/minus basically said Montreal won a lot of close games (they did in OT) but had some really bad ones. Not sustainable. Ottawa has obviously lost a lot of closer ones. 

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I like these two filtering handles:

https://www.hockey-reference.com/leagues/NHL_2024.html

 

the Simple Rating System

image.png

Actual goal differential minus Expected goal differential :

image.png

 

Habs are .500 at bad at 5-on-5, they suck on overall

 

They complement well this graph:

 

 

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3 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

ah! the often dismissed but sometimes sooo telling of a teams performance ! the "+/-"

 

Team +/- is a decent stat, though not as good as xG%

 

Its the player by player one that sucks. 

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50 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

Say what you want about +/-, but I always believed it was a relevant statistic when it comes to egregious outliers. E.g., if I'm -25 and everyone else on my team is a +, that is probably telling us something meaningful about my suckage.

 

Or its saying that you face tough opposition, and often are on the ice for the 6 on 5 with teams scoring ENGs against you a lot, or goalies have somehow been terrible when you are on the ice. 

 

My whole point is why even look at it, when there are plenty of websites that will give you xGF%.  If you are actually sucking, it will show up in that stat (also with reference to the rest of the team).  If the +/- is uniquely weird cause of something out of your control, then that will also show up. 

 

xG is so much better cause it counts many more events and a big sample size is less likely to be wrong than a small sample size which is +/- for an individual player. 

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24 minutes ago, Commandant said:

Stars acquire Tanev.  Wonder if this starts trade dominos for D.

 

I know Calgary wanted a first, but that still seems like a big haul for Tanev. Good work by Conroy.

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