DON Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Was nice to hear that the Bruins lost and the Oilers won at least. I know Commanant is adamant that is no such thing as "clutch" players. How about players that fade in pressure situations...myth also? Come on SWEEP! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huzer Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 27 minutes ago, DON said: Was nice to hear that the Bruins lost and the Oilers won at least. I know Commanant is adamant that is no such thing as "clutch" players. How about players that fade in pressure situations...myth also? Come on SWEEP! Looking at Samsonov's career regular season vs playoff numbers (without getting into advanced goalie stats, because I don't care THAT much), his numbers aren't drastically different in terms of save % and GAA. Last year, his playoff stats were better than his regular season stats, other than W-L. But judging from that blurb, seems TO has chosen their scapegoat if they bounce (yet again) in the first round. I also don't subscribe to the "clutch" theory. All of these professional athletes have mental fortitude or they wouldn't be in the NHL. There's preparation, hard work, and luck. Some players go on a streak, due to a combination of those three things, at the right time of the year, and all of a sudden, they become known as clutch. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 The Bruins seems so ripe for an upset. They had a great year where everything went right for them but faced no adversity. They are a very good team but I don't see a dominant team. Florida has basically nothing to lose and they have a lot of talent. I think Florida wins this series. Hope I am wrong as I want the 17th pick. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 46 minutes ago, huzer said: Looking at Samsonov's career regular season vs playoff numbers (without getting into advanced goalie stats, because I don't care THAT much), his numbers aren't drastically different in terms of save % and GAA. Last year, his playoff stats were better than his regular season stats, other than W-L. But judging from that blurb, seems TO has chosen their scapegoat if they bounce (yet again) in the first round. I also don't subscribe to the "clutch" theory. All of these professional athletes have mental fortitude or they wouldn't be in the NHL. There's preparation, hard work, and luck. Some players go on a streak, due to a combination of those three things, at the right time of the year, and all of a sudden, they become known as clutch. Professional or not, I do think some players handle high pressure situations better than others. Just as in normal normal working lives, there are people respond to high pressure/emergency/crisis situations better than others. Perfect example is a guy like Claude Lemieux. His performance in the playoffs was better and more consistent than his regular season performance. Looking at his GPG regular season vs playoffs it is .31 vs .34, when most players have a a slight drop on the playoffs since checking gets tighter. But it still is close to his average. With Lemieux though the TIMING of his goals was clutch. He scored a lot more winning goals in key situations in the playoffs in the playoffs than in the regular season. The overall stats of elite players are bout the same - I think if you look at a guy like Richer, he is GPG was around .42 regular season and .39 playoffs. Not much a difference, and when you factor in tighter checking, you’d expect it to be slightly lower. But he wasn’t a guy who scored the key situational game winning goals in the playoffs. Similarly, there are guys that want to be the guy in big moments. There’s other guys who hate that pressure. I remember in the Steve Penny series against the Islanders. We were up in the series, and Naslund got a penalty shot. Was stopped, and we went on to lose the game and our luck ran out. After the game Naslund said he hates penalty shots and it’s too much pressure. Players in the Olympics have also said the same thing about having to go out when a shootout is required. so I don’t buy there is no such thing as clutch. Statistically the performance may seem the same, but I think we have seen players that score bigger goals in the playoffs compared to their peers. Just like there are teams that crumble in the must win games in the playoffs (Leafs😁), despite regular season success. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Peter Puck Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Okay, so you think Claude Lemieux was clutch and show that by comparing his goal scoring in the playoffs with the regular season. There were 14 NHL seasons in which Lemieux played in the playoffs. During 8 of those seasons he scored at a higher rate in the playoffs than the regular season. In the other 6 his regular season scoring rate was higher. Maybe Lemieux was clutch but I don't his scoring rate as proof. The playoffs are shorter and so some players will do better in the playoffs and some worse just by randomness. We like to declare those in the former group are clutch and those in the latter chokers, but it could easily be just randomness. If some players are clutch they should be clutch (almost) every year. Were the 2019 Lightning chokers? Were the 2020 Lightening clutch? Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 19 hours ago, Peter Puck said: I haven't given this a lot of thought so there are probably some unintended consequences but I think I would consider a rule that any player on LTIR for any time after the trade deadline is not eligible for the playoffs. Yeah I dont think this is fair to teams either. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 15 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said: What a hard fought game it is. Florida looks pretty good unfortunately Boston is dealing with a flu ravaging their dressing room. As soon as they get past it, i think they dominate the series. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 40 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said: Professional or not, I do think some players handle high pressure situations better than others. Just as in normal normal working lives, there are people respond to high pressure/emergency/crisis situations better than others. Perfect example is a guy like Claude Lemieux. His performance in the playoffs was better and more consistent than his regular season performance. Looking at his GPG regular season vs playoffs it is .31 vs .34, when most players have a a slight drop on the playoffs since checking gets tighter. But it still is close to his average. With Lemieux though the TIMING of his goals was clutch. He scored a lot more winning goals in key situations in the playoffs in the playoffs than in the regular season. The overall stats of elite players are bout the same - I think if you look at a guy like Richer, he is GPG was around .42 regular season and .39 playoffs. Not much a difference, and when you factor in tighter checking, you’d expect it to be slightly lower. But he wasn’t a guy who scored the key situational game winning goals in the playoffs. Similarly, there are guys that want to be the guy in big moments. There’s other guys who hate that pressure. I remember in the Steve Penny series against the Islanders. We were up in the series, and Naslund got a penalty shot. Was stopped, and we went on to lose the game and our luck ran out. After the game Naslund said he hates penalty shots and it’s too much pressure. Players in the Olympics have also said the same thing about having to go out when a shootout is required. so I don’t buy there is no such thing as clutch. Statistically the performance may seem the same, but I think we have seen players that score bigger goals in the playoffs compared to their peers. Just like there are teams that crumble in the must win games in the playoffs (Leafs😁), despite regular season success. Claude Lemieux made the NHL playoffs 18 times In 9 of those appearances his PPG in the playoffs was higher than the same season. In 9 of those appearnces his PPG in the season was higher than the playoffs. His overall PPG in playoffs and season are different by miniscule amounts. Clutch is a myth. As for all the stuff about some people being better in pressure situations than others, this is true for all of us who work regular jobs. For pro athletes, if they didn't perform in pressure situations they never would make the NHL, they would have been weeded out in a high pressure situation to make a team, or impress scouts, or a hundred other times before they make the league. NHLers aren't the average worker... they are the best of the best in their field. They arent' comparable to the average person working for a company. They are more comparable to the absolute best of the best surgeons in the world, or best of the best scientists, or whatever the field. They are comparable to the elite in the field not the averages. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
huzer Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Performance in playoffs is more celebrated. If a guy has 4 pts in a game on Dec 13th, it's interesting, but hey, whatever. If he has a 4 pt performance on May 13th, then it's obvious he can perform in high pressure situations. Clutch is just a word used to describe a player that goes on a well timed streak at a certain time of the year. But everyone has different opinions, and that's ok. I just don't believe that players have some mythical power to allow them to be a different player than they were during the regular season. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hab29RETIRED Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 5 minutes ago, Commandant said: Claude Lemieux made the NHL playoffs 18 times In 9 of those appearances his PPG in the playoffs was higher than the same season. In 9 of those appearnces his PPG in the season was higher than the playoffs. His overall PPG in playoffs and season are different by miniscule amounts. Clutch is a myth. As for all the stuff about some people being better in pressure situations than others, this is true for all of us who work regular jobs. For pro athletes, if they didn't perform in pressure situations they never would make the NHL, they would have been weeded out in a high pressure situation to make a team, or impress scouts, or a hundred other times before they make the league. NHLers aren't the average worker... they are the best of the best in their field. They arent' comparable to the average person working for a company. They are more comparable to the absolute best of the best surgeons in the world, or best of the best scientists, or whatever the field. They are comparable to the elite in the field not the averages. Sure. There is no clutch. That’s why Toronto has gotten bounced in the first round every year - even when having the better team. The leafs inability to rise to the occasion in the playoffs is a myth.🙄 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 2 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said: Sure. There is no clutch. That’s why Toronto has gotten bounced in the first round every year - even when having the better team. The leafs inability to rise to the occasion in the playoffs is a myth.🙄 Or they just keep playing teams like Tampa and Boston who are better? Also goaltending matters, and they have had the worse goalie in every series they have been in, whether its vasilevskiy, Carey Price, Rask, or Ullmark on the other side. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 38 minutes ago, Commandant said: Claude Lemieux made the NHL playoffs 18 times In 9 of those appearances his PPG in the playoffs was higher than the same season. In 9 of those appearnces his PPG in the season was higher than the playoffs. His overall PPG in playoffs and season are different by miniscule amounts. Clutch is a myth. As for all the stuff about some people being better in pressure situations than others, this is true for all of us who work regular jobs. For pro athletes, if they didn't perform in pressure situations they never would make the NHL, they would have been weeded out in a high pressure situation to make a team, or impress scouts, or a hundred other times before they make the league. NHLers aren't the average worker... they are the best of the best in their field. They arent' comparable to the average person working for a company. They are more comparable to the absolute best of the best surgeons in the world, or best of the best scientists, or whatever the field. They are comparable to the elite in the field not the averages. I think if a player can score in the playoffs at a similar rate (or better) than they did during the regular season then that is a player I want on my team, no question about it. Scoring is obviously harder in the playoffs when you are playing a good team every night and the checking is tougher. You can call it clutch or whatever. If Claude Lemieux over 18 seasons scored at a similar rate in the playoffs then I will take him on my team any day of the week. Same with a guy like Corey Perry, they know how to step it up come playoff time. Not everyone can. What a huge pressure game for the Leafs tonight, should be fun to watch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 1 hour ago, Commandant said: Boston is dealing with a flu ravaging their dressing room. As soon as they get past it, i think they dominate the series. I hope you are right and they dominate but I have my doubts. The Bruins could easily be down 2-0 in this series. Florida has a lot of talent and are playing very well. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 Scoring in the playoffs is lower than the regular season, but its extremely minimal and almost all of it is PP. 5v5 scoring is basically the same. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 4 hours ago, Peter Puck said: Okay, so you think Claude Lemieux was clutch and show that by comparing his goal scoring in the playoffs with the regular season. There were 14 NHL seasons in which Lemieux played in the playoffs. During 8 of those seasons he scored at a higher rate in the playoffs than the regular season. In the other 6 his regular season scoring rate was higher. Maybe Lemieux was clutch but I don't his scoring rate as proof. The playoffs are shorter and so some players will do better in the playoffs and some worse just by randomness. We like to declare those in the former group are clutch and those in the latter chokers, but it could easily be just randomness. If some players are clutch they should be clutch (almost) every year. Were the 2019 Lightning chokers? Were the 2020 Lightening clutch? Claude Lemieux scored 19 game winning goals in the playoffs (3rd best all time), won a Conn Smythe Trophy, won a Stanley Cup with 3 different teams. Random? A fluke? In my books he was clutch. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GHT120 Posted April 20, 2023 Share Posted April 20, 2023 So, understandable ... but Bergeron suffered an upper-body injury in the team’s regular-season finale against Montreal ... so he, and the BBs, is paying the price for his sentimentality Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 Stupid Leafs... Rangers going up 2-0 in series? Seem the better team in tiny bit i have seen. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 1 hour ago, GHT120 said: So, understandable ... but Bergeron suffered an upper-body injury in the team’s regular-season finale against Montreal ... so he, and the BBs, is paying the price for his sentimentality Yeah but didn't the Bruins play all their regulars in that game not just Bergeron? I think Pastrnak and Marchand also played in that game. I thought I read here that Bergeron missed the 1st playoff game with the flu? I could be wrong about that. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tomh009 Posted April 21, 2023 Author Share Posted April 21, 2023 So, the Leafs spanked the Lightning by a nearly identical score to the Leafs-Habs game just about a week earlier. Just saying ... Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 14 minutes ago, tomh009 said: So, the Leafs spanked the Lightning by a nearly identical score to the Leafs-Habs game just about a week earlier. Just saying ... If Hedman is out for any length of time than the Lightning are in trouble. If I had to pick one team to win the cup right now I would pick the Rangers. I just don't see a weakness on that team. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Commandant Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 16 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: Claude Lemieux scored 19 game winning goals in the playoffs (3rd best all time), won a Conn Smythe Trophy, won a Stanley Cup with 3 different teams. Random? A fluke? In my books he was clutch. Game winning goals So when he scored the 2nd goal in a 5-1 game, thats a GWG too. When you are winning 3-2... score an ENG.... then the other team keeps the goalie pulled and makes it 4-3 again, the empty netter gets the GWG designation. Its a meaningless stat full of randomness. Its not a measure of clutch. I've posted multiple studies on this in the past... when you have this many years and this many players there are outliers, but the reality is that looking at Standard Deviations, there is basically no such thing as clutch, just the reality that in random occurrences and small sample size (playoffs being less than 1/5th or regular season games for most player's career stats) you get some anomalies, but nothing that is outside of expected randomness. 2 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DON Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 11 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: If Hedman is out for any length of time than the Lightning are in trouble. If I had to pick one team to win the cup right now I would pick the Rangers. I just don't see a weakness on that team. Come on Hedman, suck it up! Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Chicoutimi Cucumber Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 I was worried that the Game One spanking would snap the Leafs to attention. If the Lightning had won 4-2, that’d be one thing, but a whuppin’ like that tends to make a team instantly desperate. Meanwhile, the absence of Hedman is very bad news. I do not like the way these dynamics are shaping up. The Lightning are not quite the team they were, so beating TO was always going to be a challenge, but without Hedman it will be even less likely. Meanwhile, Boston was my sure-fire ace-in-the-hole to prevent Toronto from advancing much further. But they look to be a shadow of themselves, also struggling with flu and a key injury. I do not trust any other team to beat Toronto. It’s early days, but I fear that what we are seeing is one of those years where the path clears for a team that is ready to tackle advantage. And that team is Toronto. God forbid I’m right. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Habs Fan in Edmonton Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 25 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said: It’s early days, but I fear that what we are seeing is one of those years where the path clears for a team that is ready to tackle advantage. And that team is Toronto. God forbid I’m right. Toronto beats Tampa, Florida beats Boston, Toronto beats Florida and then the Rangers beat the Leafs. We are good. Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prime Minister Koivu Posted April 21, 2023 Share Posted April 21, 2023 1 hour ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said: Toronto beats Tampa, Florida beats Boston, Toronto beats Florida and then the Rangers beat the Leafs. We are good. While I’m a bit surprised by how easy the Rangers are beating Jersey, I’m not convinced they can beat Toronto. Rangers run and gun a lot and playing that game with Toronto won’t end well. Leafs have significant power Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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