How far along in the rebuild are we?

[Neech]

It seems management and fans are done with bottoming out and want to be more competitive next year. Hughes has also said he expects it to be another 2-3 years before we're contending for the playoffs, which I take to be good management of expectations but good luck with that in the rabid Montreal market. What worries me is that I don't think we're coming out of this 'tanking' phase with the top end prospect talent to become a contender, and that we're heading for another decade plus similar to the last 15 years - a good but not great team that can come close but never really contend. Looking at the division, every other team either has at least as good or better talent in its prime or in the pipeline - how do we surpass them, let alone the rest of the league? Should we swallow our impatience and extend the rebuild to come out with a true contender a bit further down the road?  

[Prime Minister Koivu]

I believe that we will make the playoffs in 2025 and likely finish 10-12 worst in the league this season. 
 

Habs have some swing for the fences players that could be home runs or disappointments but we have no idea yet. Whether the Habs can be a contender depends on what happens to: 

Xhekaj 

Slafkovsky

Dach

Newhook

Reinbacker

Guhle

Caufield

Suzuki

Montembault

 

Are there 100 point players there? Stud Dmen that can play both ends? #1 goalie in Montembault? Is there a diamond such as Hutson or Roy in minors?

 

If we get some yesses on those questions then we are a contender. 
 

My hope is that a few players take a step forward this year. 
 

No tanking

 

 

 

 

 

[GHT120]

The Habs may well end up with a Top 10 pick next June but this will not be a TANK season ... that requires management to intentionally dispose of assets that would help the team win games in order to reduce their chances of winning games ... HuGo have not IMO actually tanked since taking over ... the closest to a tank might be trading Toffoli a month before the 2022 trade deadline, ...but even that I think was roster management, not tanking since they weren't winning anyway (10 straight losses before the trade) ... what they have done is not make "short-term" roster moves for a few more wins ... but that IMO is not tanking.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

54 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

The Habs may well end up with a Top 10 pick next June but this will not be a TANK season ... that requires management to intentionally dispose of assets that would help the team win games in order to reduce their chances of winning games ... HuGo have not IMO actually tanked since taking over ... the closest to a tank might be trading Toffoli a month before the 2022 trade deadline, ...but even that I think was roster management, not tanking since they weren't winning anyway (10 straight losses before the trade) ... what they have done is not make "short-term" roster moves for a few more wins ... but that IMO is not tanking.

 

Excellent post. Agree with all your points. We have covered this "tanking" concept over and over.  The Habs did not tank, the players and management did not do anything to sabotage their team like Chicago did.  Leading the league in man games lost due to injury 2 years in a row also didn't help. 

 

How far along in the rebuild are we?  We are farther along than we were last year. 

 

 

[Commandant]

3 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

I believe that we will make the playoffs in 2025 and likely finish 10-12 worst in the league this season. 
 

Habs have some swing for the fences players that could be home runs or disappointments but we have no idea yet. Whether the Habs can be a contender depends on what happens to: 

Xhekaj 

Slafkovsky

Dach

Newhook

Reinbacker

Guhle

Caufield

Suzuki

Montembault

 

Are there 100 point players there? Stud Dmen that can play both ends? #1 goalie in Montembault? Is there a diamond such as Hutson or Roy in minors?

 

If we get some yesses on those questions then we are a contender. 
 

My hope is that a few players take a step forward this year. 
 

No tanking

 

 

 

 

 

 

Vegas just won the cup with a roster where noone has ever scored 100 points.  Phil Kessel had a 92 point season in Pittsburgh but hes well past that and was a healthy scratch in the playoffs.

 

The best for forwards they actually use. An 82 point season for Eichel jn Buffalo.

 

I dont know that you need someone who is  100 point guy to win the cup

[Neech]

4 hours ago, GHT120 said:

The Habs may well end up with a Top 10 pick next June but this will not be a TANK season ... that requires management to intentionally dispose of assets that would help the team win games in order to reduce their chances of winning games ... HuGo have not IMO actually tanked since taking over ... the closest to a tank might be trading Toffoli a month before the 2022 trade deadline, ...but even that I think was roster management, not tanking since they weren't winning anyway (10 straight losses before the trade) ... what they have done is not make "short-term" roster moves for a few more wins ... but that IMO is not tanking.

 

I think we'll probably be back in the top 10 as well, just looking at the competition in the division. I agree about the whole tanking business, and we're doing a good job of creating a positive culture by all accounts. But it would probably be better for the future if our pick next year is closer to top 5 territory and we get a stud. 

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I have no idea how far along we are. I do believe that management thinks we are further along than conventional wisdom would suggest.

 

Trying to squint ahead, I can see a team forming that has excellent depth and quality at D - probably a top-10 NHL d-corps. At FW, it’s harder to gauge; much depends on whether Dach can evolve into a 1A C to spell off Suzuki, who is arguably himself a very good #1A rather than a true #1C. Much also depends on whether Slaf can become a legit, stud power FW instead of the rather passive and ill-adapted kid we saw last season. Finally, CC HAS to be durable. If he can avoid becoming injury-prone damaged goods, that will make a massive difference, giving us one of the most feared snipers in hockey, abetted by one of the league’s better playmaking C in Slick Nick.

 

G is a mystery. For all we know Monty will become the next Markstrom, late-blooming big-body G. Or he may fizzle out and we have to hope one of the kids we drafted this year emerges as a legitimate #1.

 

I think we can be reasonably optimistic that we are looking at a strong team, probably top-10 and surely top-15, within the next 2-3 years. I don’t see a TB-like powerhouse emerging, however, by any means. My guess is that we’ll be more like the Hurricanes, a very good club has a chance to break through eventually and win a Cup, but will not necessarily be the favourite to do so in any given season.

[Prime Minister Koivu]

17 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

Vegas just won the cup with a roster where noone has ever scored 100 points.  Phil Kessel had a 92 point season in Pittsburgh but hes well past that and was a healthy scratch in the playoffs.

 

The best for forwards they actually use. An 82 point season for Eichel jn Buffalo.

 

I dont know that you need someone who is  100 point guy to win the cup

Yeah to further your argument the oilers have two 100+ point guys and they can’t get it done. 
 

Whether we get any 100 pointers in our system or not, we need a good portion of youngsters to pan out and it’s too early to tell. 

[huzer]

Our first rounders, especially the last two drafts, HAVE to convert into high end talent. A 1st OA, and a 5th can't be meh. They simply can't mess up acquiring high end talent for free when they have the opportunity in the draft.

 

I certainly hope the gamble on Monahan returns a good draft pick at the deadline, and that they get another pick for Hoffman. Even if it's to keep flipping those picks for the Dach and Newhook types. 

 

I think it's looking up, but I've been down this road before of hyping prospects (Komisarek, Higgins, Perezhogin, Kostitsyn!) 

[Habsfan89]

I would say as soon as our bad contracts thanks to Bergevin are over , our rebuild will be over. 

 

We have 1 year left in  Hoffman 

Dvorak, Savard and  Armia have 2 years left

Price has 3 years left 

Gallagher and Anderson have 4 years left

 

So i will say we have 3 years to go , Anderson is tradeable but Gallagher will be a buy out in his final year.

 

then our new young core will be ready to make the next jump to being a playoff team and we will have money to spend in free agency.

 

[tomh009]

3 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I think we can be reasonably optimistic that we are looking at a strong team, probably top-10 and surely top-15, within the next 2-3 years.

I would not be entirely unhappy with a team that is consistently in the top 10 in the NHL regular season--and solidly in the playoffs from year to year--though I would certainly hope for more than that.

[Habsfan89]

19 hours ago, Commandant said:

 

Vegas just won the cup with a roster where noone has ever scored 100 points.  Phil Kessel had a 92 point season in Pittsburgh but hes well past that and was a healthy scratch in the playoffs.

 

The best for forwards they actually use. An 82 point season for Eichel jn Buffalo.

 

I dont know that you need someone who is  100 point guy to win the cup

You need depth to win a cup, depth on the main roster and depth in the farm system. That's what wins in the playoffs and 7 game series. 

[Neech]

1 hour ago, huzer said:

Our first rounders, especially the last two drafts, HAVE to convert into high end talent. A 1st OA, and a 5th can't be meh. They simply can't mess up acquiring high end talent for free when they have the opportunity in the draft.

 

 

Unfortunately we were unlucky with the timing of those two picks, which is a big reason why I think we need another dip at the top 5. Reinbacher and Slaf are more likely second pairing and second line talent than the superstars we hoped for. If we had those picks in reverse years we'd have Bedard and Jiricek - probably about the same ceiling on D but a massive difference up front.

 

4 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

 

I think we can be reasonably optimistic that we are looking at a strong team, probably top-10 and surely top-15, within the next 2-3 years. I don’t see a TB-like powerhouse emerging, however, by any means. My guess is that we’ll be more like the Hurricanes, a very good club has a chance to break through eventually and win a Cup, but will not necessarily be the favourite to do so in any given season.

 

I agree that Carolina is a good comparable for us with their strong two way D-corps, and they're well set up for long term contention. 

[alfredoh2009]

I think we are just getting started. The best of Timmins drafts are just making it the NHL and savvy trades by Hugh-Gort have added good young players to the core.

 

Habs do not have cup-contending goaltending and they do not have shutdown specialists that can suffocate the other team. But there is time to fix those holes.

I will start paying closer attention in 2024-2025 season. But seeing this twitter post got me a bit concerned:

 

Here's the other side of the argument when everyone points out that Nick Bobrov's top picks out of Europe have all become busts.

The Rangers' development program is...bad. https://t.co/pC4jYiBlWo

— Marc Dumont (@MarcPDumont) July 21, 2023

 

[xXx..CK..xXx]

My short opinion is that some put way too much emphasis on a single draft pick having such an influence on the future of our club.

 

At one point or another, free agent signings as well as trades will have to be made in order to put any of our competitive clubs over the top. 
 

I am always optimistic but I don’t see our current club as a contender. 
 

My main concern in particular is our back end. (Goaltending) 

 

With that said, in any given year management can make moves to bolster our club. I don’t believe one draft pick of any capacity will be enough to do it. It’s like an addiction to some. “I wasn’t happy with 3rd, let’s go for 1st.” We get 5th. “I wasn’t happy with 5th, let’s go for 1st overall draft pick again”. 
 

Rinse and repeat.

 

We didn’t make any major moves this off season so I have a tough time seeing us as a contender this year. Have an unexpected successful start to the season? Maybe some deadline moves make our team better than expected. Not this year? Maybe we sign some free agents next year and build off that. My educated guess was that we’ll make the playoffs again not this year but next.
 

The team will go out there and try to compete this year. Tanking is not an option for them, nor is it a guaranteed recipe for success.

[hab29RETIRED]

3 hours ago, xXx..CK..xXx said:

My short opinion is that some put way too much emphasis on a single draft pick having such an influence on the future of our club.

 

At one point or another, free agent signings as well as trades will have to be made in order to put any of our competitive clubs over the top. 
 

I am always optimistic but I don’t see our current club as a contender. 
 

My main concern in particular is our back end. (Goaltending) 

 

With that said, in any given year management can make moves to bolster our club. I don’t believe one draft pick of any capacity will be enough to do it. It’s like an addiction to some. “I wasn’t happy with 3rd, let’s go for 1st.” We get 5th. “I wasn’t happy with 5th, let’s go for 1st overall draft pick again”. 
 

Rinse and repeat.

 

We didn’t make any major moves this off season so I have a tough time seeing us as a contender this year. Have an unexpected successful start to the season? Maybe some deadline moves make our team better than expected. Not this year? Maybe we sign some free agents next year and build off that. My educated guess was that we’ll make the playoffs again not this year but next.
 

The team will go out there and try to compete this year. Tanking is not an option for them, nor is it a guaranteed recipe for success.

We really couldn’t make any moves this year, with our cap situation - no way to move the Hoffman, Armia, Dvorak, and Gallagher contracts this summer. Hopefully Hoffman will either be moved at the deadline, or buried in the minors for his last year. If Dvorak comes back healthy, we may be able to move him. That creates some flexibility for next year. I think a low cost pickup like Monohan was about all that makes sense. If he is healthy, hopefully he helps guys like Caufield, Slafkovsky, Dach, and Newhook develop. If not he isn’t vowing to be a cap anchor like Armia and Gallagher.

 

It also doesn’t make sense to make any moves because there are no moves that we could make that can get us in the playoffs this year. We simply are not good enough. We aren’t going to bump Tampa, Florida and Toronto out of the playoffs, and even if Boston doeant get Bergeron and Krecji back, Buffalo and Ottawa are ahead of us in their development cycle.
 

We also don’t know how legit our kids are yet either. Given their age, I don’t think anyone guaranteed to reach their projected potential (Which is by I hate that we didn’t take a forward - Leonard or Michkov, in a draft that was supposed to be forward heavy). There is too much uncertainty whether the kids will take a step forward or back. Until we know what we have, we really don’t even know what holes to plug through trades and free agency.

 

i think we are two years away to make a legit push for the playoffs, but for that to happen we need the following to occur:

-Guhle shows he is a legit top pairing NHL dman, and not just a top pairing on a bad team.

-at least two kids on D to take a step forward to show they are at least legit middle pairing guys, and can move up at times (Harris, Barron?)

-Caufield how’s he can stay healthy like he did for most of his pre-draft career AND productive when teams will keying on him

-Dach continues to progress, stays healthy and productive 

-Newhook is at least a top 6 winger or a solid 3rd line centre that can pitch on offensively on a consistent basis.

-Slafkovsky progresses and by the end of the year doesn’t look out of place in the top 6.

-Montembeault proves he is a legit starter.

- some of our kids that should be starting in the minors, get some NHL time and show they are close to being NHL players (Roy, Mailloux)

-by the end of the year, wifi shows he can not only be a physical force, but at a minimum is a dependable bottom pairing guy that can move up at times.

 

If our kids progress this year and show they are legit NHL players, next summer, we can start adding free agents, ideally, I wouldn’t want to make a high cost acquisition for another two years when Armia is also gone.

 

I think it’s important to show continual progression over the next two years, but unrealistic to expect us to be a legit playoff team.

[DON]

 

Basu's wildass stab at 2024 roster;

 

 

Canadiens mailbag part 2: What’s the long-term plan? How to compete in the Atlantic? - The Athletic

 

Anyhow, here is that 2024 lineup under these circumstances.

Cole Caufield	Nick Suzuki	William Nylander
Juraj Slafkovský	Kirby Dach	Alexander Holtz
Emil Heineman	Alex Newhook	Brendan Gallagher
Jesse Ylönen	Jake Evans	Joel Armia
Mike Matheson	Justin Barron
Kaiden Guhle	David Savard
Arber Xhekaj	David Reinbacher

[alfredoh2009]

yes, it was a fun read

I liked that he put Barron on the top pair and I am pleasantly surprised that he omitted "3rd-pair Harris" from his lineup

 

He sees more improvement this year from Slaf that I expected, I hope the hype and his take are right and that I am wrong: honestly

[hab29RETIRED]

5 hours ago, DON said:

 

Basu's wildass stab at 2024 roster;

 

 

Canadiens mailbag part 2: What’s the long-term plan? How to compete in the Atlantic? - The Athletic

 

Anyhow, here is that 2024 lineup under these circumstances.

Cole Caufield	Nick Suzuki	William Nylander
Juraj Slafkovský	Kirby Dach	Alexander Holtz
Emil Heineman	Alex Newhook	Brendan Gallagher
Jesse Ylönen	Jake Evans	Joel Armia
Mike Matheson	Justin Barron
Kaiden Guhle	David Savard
Arber Xhekaj	David Reinbacher

I think he’s on crack!

[alfredoh2009]

4 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

I think he’s on crack!

😂 LOL 😂 

[tomh009]

16 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

I think he’s on crack!

Which part makes you think so? It's highly speculative, but that was necessary in order to answer the question ...

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I don't have a subscription...how is it that he imagines Nylander being in the lineup -?

[BCHabnut]

30 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I don't have a subscription...how is it that he imagines Nylander being in the lineup -?

Anderson trade maybe?

[tomh009]

55 minutes ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I don't have a subscription...how is it that he imagines Nylander being in the lineup -?

It’s based on signing him as a UFA (Leafs likely will not have the cap space).

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

13 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I don't have a subscription...how is it that he imagines Nylander being in the lineup -?

It’s based on signing him as a UFA (Leafs likely will not have the cap space).

 

Thanks. Well, I love Nylander as a player, so I’d be happy if that happened…but whether we will be able to fit his $10 mil contract into our cap structure is another matter entirely.