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Apr. 3rd, Senators vs. Canadiens - 19h00 EDT


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Weber has clearly declined, and significantly in the defensive end of the ice.    The xGA stats show this.   The shots he is giving up are coming from high danger areas more and more. 

Let's keep the winning streak going   Tkachuk - Norris - Paul Stutzle - Tierney - Batherson Dzingel - Bishop - Bro

Ahhhh, ok. Didn't see the speculation emoji...  

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5 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

Well ... now the problem is who to NOT remove from the lineup when Staal is added.

Can Staal play RD?

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Well Price and Petry sucked. Might be able to overcome one of them having an off day, but both will pretty well do you in.

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A reversion to the bad habits of the pre-COVID-break period.

 

Hopefully this proves to be a “two steps forward, one step back” kinda thing.

 

Incidentally, Weber is slooooow and also should probably be careful about dropping the mitts too often at age 35. I remember Dryden saying that about Larry Robinson - that after a certain point, his rep could only suffer if he fought and didn’t win.

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1 hour ago, sbhatt said:

 

I've got Price down for 2

 

He also made five or six big saves.  No way was this loss on Price.  Awful defending from the whole team. 

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1 hour ago, tomh009 said:

Can Staal play RD?

 

He'd probably be as good or better than his brother Marc.

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1 hour ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

A reversion to the bad habits of the pre-COVID-break period.

 

Hopefully this proves to be a “two steps forward, one step back” kinda thing.

 

Incidentally, Weber is slooooow and also should probably be careful about dropping the mitts too often at age 35. I remember Dryden saying that about Larry Robinson - that after a certain point, his rep could only suffer if he fought and didn’t win.

At this point if we actually had another dman other than Petry that is worth protecting at the expansion draft, I’d leave Weber unprotected.

 

we really need another legit top pairing dman this year and than I’d look for an upgrade on Weber in the summer.  We need more for that cap hit.

 

we have good depth on the wing, and at least have centres with POTENTIAL to get better to be 1a/b/c types in the playoffs this year. We are badly in need of help on The blue line to do damage in the playoffs.

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10 hours ago, tomh009 said:

Can Staal play RD?

Can anyone else on the Habs?

🙃

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7 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

At this point if we actually had another dman other than Petry that is worth protecting at the expansion draft, I’d leave Weber unprotected ...

Given that it is IMO unlikely that Seattle would take Weber (Shea's declining real dollar  salary makes me think he may not play more than two more years for the Habs, let alone an expansion team) I would expose him regardless ... and if they did take it, I could live with it ... but I believe that the optics of not protecting his Captain would mean MB would protect Weber even if a Faustian deal meant exposing him guaranteed the Habs the 2022 Cup ... but lots of time to discuss this in the months to come

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12 hours ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:


This about sums it up. 
 

Why can’t we play well for consecutive games?

 

Consecutive games?  They played well for 3 or 4 in a row before this.

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14 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

but I believe that the optics of not protecting his Captain would mean MB would protect Weber even if a Faustian deal meant exposing him guaranteed the Habs the 2022 Cup ... but lots of time to discuss this in the months to come

Agree, also was wondering if 'the optics' will factor in to Bergevin's thoughts. People freaked when he let fan favourite Markov walk and dealt Subban, but he did that, so who knows. 

 

Will be very interesting to see how the "Old" Mountain handles the next 15games in 4 weeks test.:popcorn:

 

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52 minutes ago, DON said:

Agree, also was wondering if 'the optics' will factor in to Bergevin's thoughts. People freaked when he let fan favourite Markov walk and dealt Subban, but he did that, so who knows. 

 

Will be very interesting to see how the "Old" Mountain handles the next 15games in 4 weeks test.:popcorn:

 

Trading Subban was 100% the right call.

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1 hour ago, Commandant said:

 

Consecutive games?  They played well for 3 or 4 in a row before this.


Yes they played 3 really great games with great effort 

 

We played like crap last night

 

We can’t give great effort for more than 3 games in a row? We were outplayed and out worked by the Sens     
 

I frankly expected more

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4 hours ago, TurdBurglar said:

Trading Subban was 100% the right call.

Don't think that is the issue ... rather it is whether Weber warrants being protected and/or whether MB would expose him even if that is the "right" thing to do roster-wise because of Shea (a) being his captain and (b) his major trade acquisition in his tenure as GM.

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5 hours ago, DON said:

Agree, also was wondering if 'the optics' will factor in to Bergevin's thoughts. People freaked when he let fan favourite Markov walk and dealt Subban, but he did that, so who knows. 

 

Will be very interesting to see how the "Old" Mountain handles the next 15games in 4 weeks test.:popcorn:

 

 

He will probably struggle but I hope it is only in one game out of four, or half the games at most. I would sit him every fourth game during that stretch if we had an RD that could take his minutes without being a pilon on the ice

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1 hour ago, GHT120 said:

Don't think that is the issue ... rather it is whether Weber warrants being protected and/or whether MB would expose him even if that is the "right" thing to do roster-wise because of Shea (a) being his captain and (b) his major trade acquisition in his tenure as GM.

I think the Subban trade showed he's not worried about the optics of his decision.  If Seattle will take Weber, I believe he will be exposed.  Then again, I don't think there's any way Seattle takes a player with his best years behind him and only 2-3 years left in the league. 

 

Not only that, but what are the cap recapture penalties if Seattle does take Weber?  Are they all still on Nashville in the event Weber retires early?  If they transfer to the Habs in the event Weber gets moved, I don't think Weber gets exposed.

 

There will be more to the decision of Weber getting exposed than just optics.

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1 hour ago, TurdBurglar said:

Not only that, but what are the cap recapture penalties if Seattle does take Weber?  Are they all still on Nashville in the event Weber retires early?  If they transfer to the Habs in the event Weber gets moved, I don't think Weber gets exposed.

 

If he was to leave after this season (trade or expansion), there would be a small lingering potential recapture penalty ($857,143).  That amount would be amortized over however many years were remaining in the contract when he retires.  If he retired two years early, the penalty would be that amount divided by two ($428,751.50) for two years.  It's a small enough amount that it shouldn't affect their plans.

 

These are my calculations from about 18 months ago.  Nashville's annual hit could be different from my numbers due to a CBA change that caps the per-season penalty at the AAV but the rest is still valid.

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Even with Weber's declining performance, his Team Canada grit and decreasing salary will still have positive value to cap floor teams over the coming years. No need to expose him for nothing (not that Bergy would ever do it).  

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3 hours ago, Neech said:

Even with Weber's declining performance, his Team Canada grit and decreasing salary will still have positive value to cap floor teams over the coming years. No need to expose him for nothing (not that Bergy would ever do it).  

If he declines further and gets traded to a cap floor team that has zero chance of contending,  I can’t see him wanting to continue to play for the lower actual salary and uproot his family for a situation where he has no chance to win. I could see him continuing on, for the chance to win and having a reduced role.  Of course that’s just my own opinion based on seeing what some other elite players that are declining have done. Spezza had said that if he was picked up on waived and picked up, he’d just retire. Not sure if Weber would have the same attitude of wanting to continue if he thinks he has a shot to win.  
what I could see if a low cap picking him up, for assets by picking up have his cap hit (lower actual salary), but the longer you hold on to him the last chance of that being an option air he continues to decline.  I think we’ve done a good job rebuilding the offense, despite not really having the truly elite superstar, I really think we also need to start rebuilding the D next year.

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8 hours ago, hab29RETIRED said:

If he declines further and gets traded to a cap floor team that has zero chance of contending,  I can’t see him wanting to continue to play for the lower actual salary and uproot his family for a situation where he has no chance to win. I could see him continuing on, for the chance to win and having a reduced role.  Of course that’s just my own opinion based on seeing what some other elite players that are declining have done. Spezza had said that if he was picked up on waived and picked up, he’d just retire. Not sure if Weber would have the same attitude of wanting to continue if he thinks he has a shot to win.  
what I could see if a low cap picking him up, for assets by picking up have his cap hit (lower actual salary), but the longer you hold on to him the last chance of that being an option air he continues to decline.  I think we’ve done a good job rebuilding the offense, despite not really having the truly elite superstar, I really think we also need to start rebuilding the D next year.

Agreed ... but not even certain that when his real $$$ salary drops to $3 million in 22-23 he would play for the Habs, let alone a cap-floor team ... and it would frankly shock me if he risked his health in 23-24 at 38 years of age, which is the first of the final three years of his contract when he earns just $1 million in real $$$ ... if I had to wager I would say this is at best his third to last season, maybe second.

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LOL   stop that  non sense.   Weber should be and will be protected.

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1 hour ago, JoeLassister said:

Weber should be and will be protected.

Why?

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2 minutes ago, DON said:

Why?

 

He will be protected.

 

Whether he should be is another question. That’s a pretty gigantic cap hit for a declining second-pairing d-man.

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