GDT Game #6 Oct. 24, Devils vs Canadiens, 7:15 PM

[hab29RETIRED]

38 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

There is a big range between a discounted contract and a gross overpay. A player will make some kind of value judgement between teams based on a combination of money and other factors.

Agreed. He may take $10.5m from a good team in a sunny climate, over $11.5m to play in Winnipeg.

[hab29RETIRED]

22 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

but why go after Nylander, when we have Monahan. Not one-to-one match, different players: but Monahan is a better fit with the Habs and would be cheaper to sign

I wouldn’t mind resigning Monohan, IF he stays healthy, AND is willing to sign a two year deal. I just don’t have much confidence in either of those being possible. I really hope Monohan stays healthy. Despise how much I despise the Flames, Monohan was always a guy I liked and had wished we were in a position to draft him back in the day.

[Commandant]

We'll be closer to a top 5 pick than making the playoffs.  Dont let a good start fool you.  This team is at least a year away.

[GHT120]

1 hour ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

Crazy good?  A save percentage of .905 and a GAA of 2.91 is hardly comparable to a 50 HR season. You are a little out there on that one. His goalie stats were middle of the pack , a 50 HR season is not middle of the pack. 

 

(1) Compared to his previous seasons it was crazy good, the "advanced stats" folks talked about SM having one of the best seasons last year (not my "thing").
(2) Brady Anderson was cited as an example of a single outlier season.

[JoeLassister]

43 minutes ago, Commandant said:

We'll be closer to a top 5 pick than making the playoffs.  Dont let a good start fool you.  This team is at least a year away.

100% agree.

I believe we'll end up in the 24-30 range.

 

[Prime Minister Koivu]

52 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

I wouldn’t mind resigning Monohan, IF he stays healthy, AND is willing to sign a two year deal. I just don’t have much confidence in either of those being possible. I really hope Monohan stays healthy. Despise how much I despise the Flames, Monohan was always a guy I liked and had wished we were in a position to draft him back in the day.

While Monahan will certainly be cheaper than Nylander, expect Monahan to get a significant raise and some degree of term as well. 
 

I think Monahan is terrific and versatile but I wouldn’t gamble on more than three years. His injury history is too scary to risk 5-7 years. 
 

I guess it comes down to what other teams are offering but I imagine there will be significant interest. 

If Monahan gets a 4 year offer, would the Habs step up to match?

 

Nylander is probably a 10 million guy that the leafs are going to sign but the Habs sure could use a 40 goal winger with high skill and speed! 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

14 minutes ago, GHT120 said:

(1) Compared to his previous seasons it was crazy good, the "advanced stats" folks talked about SM having one of the best seasons last year (not my "thing").
(2) Brady Anderson was cited as an example of a single outlier season.

 

Montembeault has only played 107 NHL games including this year so it's pretty hard to determine what an outlier season is for him, we don't really know how good he is. He had only played 25 NHL games before coming to Montreal.   His previous years were in the .890's for save percentage and last year it was .901 certainly an improvement but I wouldn't call it crazy good. Brady Anderson went from 16 to 50 home runs, now that was an outlier season (agree on that) as he had played several full seasons in the major before that, but hardly a good comparable. 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

10 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

If Monahan gets a 4 year offer, would the Habs step up to match?

 

 

No, because Monahan will either be signed by the Habs well before he becomes a UFA or he will be traded at the deadline. 

[hab29RETIRED]

19 minutes ago, Prime Minister Koivu said:

While Monahan will certainly be cheaper than Nylander, expect Monahan to get a significant raise and some degree of term as well. 
 

I think Monahan is terrific and versatile but I wouldn’t gamble on more than three years. His injury history is too scary to risk 5-7 years. 
 

I guess it comes down to what other teams are offering but I imagine there will be significant interest. 

If Monahan gets a 4 year offer, would the Habs step up to match?

 

Nylander is probably a 10 million guy that the leafs are going to sign but the Habs sure could use a 40 goal winger with high skill and speed! 

If Monohan is healthy and has been healthy leading up the deadline and they want to sign him, I’d try for a 2 or 3 year deal. If we can’t get a reasonable short term deal done by the deadline, they HAVE to move him and get that first round pick. If he can’t stay healthy, but is at least healthy at the deadline, you also have to move him.

[Prime Minister Koivu]

12 minutes ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

No, because Monahan will either be signed by the Habs well before he becomes a UFA or he will be traded at the deadline. 

 

2 minutes ago, hab29RETIRED said:

If Monohan is healthy and has been healthy leading up the deadline and they want to sign him, I’d try for a 2 or 3 year deal. If we can’t get a reasonable short term deal done by the deadline, they HAVE to move him and get that first round pick. If he can’t stay healthy, but is at least healthy at the deadline, you also have to move him.

If a good offer is there at the deadline then you trade him. If you want to sign him as UFA you make it known before trading him. 
 

Then try and sign him as UFA

 

No good offers at the deadline then try and extend him. 

[tomh009]

3 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

Crazy good?  A save percentage of .905 and a GAA of 2.91 is hardly comparable to a 50 HR season. You are a little out there on that one. His goalie stats were middle of the pack , a 50 HR season is not middle of the pack. 

GSAx is overall a better indicator of the quality of play for a goalie. Montembeault's GSAx/60 was 0.303, good enough for 13th in the NHL (based on MoneyPuck data), so it was indeed a solid season, though not a 50 HR one. Had Allen or Primeau played all those games, we would have probably lost between 5 and 15 games and been pretty close to last place.

[DON]

4 year deal for Monahan?

Not with ten foot pole, even if he has 25g by end of Feb i dont care, trade him.

 

[alfredoh2009]

3 hours ago, DON said:

4 year deal for Monahan?

Not with ten foot pole, even if he has 25g by end of Feb i dont care, trade him.

 

A 2 year deal with an option to resign will be fine by me.

His current contract is a bit too rich. I expect the Habs to be able to dig him for Dvorak money 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

12 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

A 2 year deal with an option to resign will be fine by me.

His current contract is a bit too rich. I expect the Habs to be able to dig him for Dvorak money 

 

Are you saying Monahan's current deal of 1.9M is too rich?  

[GHT120]

2 hours ago, alfredoh2009 said:

A 2 year deal with an option to resign will be fine by me.

His current contract is a bit too rich. I expect the Habs to be able to dig him for Dvorak money 

I do not believe that "options" are allowed ... contracts are for the term specified ... of course in one sense EVERY contract has an "option to re-sign", it just applies to the entire league.

[Sir_Boagalott]

8 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

Even if by some miracle we make the playoffs, that’s hardly a reason for Nylander to sign at a discount.

 

The entire idea of getting elite UFAs at a discount is little more than fan fantasy. They overwhelmingly go where the money is, EXCEPT if they think they are signing with a guaranteed Cup contender.

 

For those fantasizing about discounts, let me ask you this. Would YOU voluntarily throw away $10-14 million? No? Then don’t expect others to do it.

 

You do realize that there is no such thing as a bona fide guaranteed Cup contender right?  i.e. President trophy teams, and even 1's that set the most points in a season record are not guaranteed to win the Cup.  ex:  last years Bruins.  Fun fact:  each year, there is a minimum of 3 Division leading teams that fail to win the Cup.

 

Furthermore, out of any team that could be considered to be a Cup contender, none of them have the cap space to add a $10 mil player without doing major subtraction(s) to their team to be able to add them.  Those subtractions could mess with a teams chemistry and weaken it. 

 

Moreover, after this season the only team that has up to $10 mil in cap space available and would be a playoff team if their need for an elite F was fulfilled and who could possibly add such a player without subtracting anyone happens to be the Habs.  Feel free to name another team that could add him without losing significant pieces.  There are none - and they already have elite F's who are signed long term.  

 

As per your Q, for the right team yes I would give up some $.  Why?  Because your wealth is not exclusive to the amount you are paid.   i.e. intelligent investments can increase your wealth.  However, the $ a player is paid can't buy a Cup victory.  

 

Would you rather make $59.5 mil and win Cups, or make $70 mil and never win a Cup?  Its not like little kids playing pond hockey dream about growing up and making $70 mil in their final UFA contract.  

[dlbalr]

1 hour ago, GHT120 said:

I do not believe that "options" are allowed ... contracts are for the term specified ... of course in on  sense EVERY contract has an "option to re-sign", it just applies to the entire league.

 

Correct, there are no team/player options available anymore.  There used to be but I think those went out the window when the cap came in.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

1 hour ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

 

You do realize that there is no such thing as a bona fide guaranteed Cup contender right?  i.e. President trophy teams, and even 1's that set the most points in a season record are not guaranteed to win the Cup.  ex:  last years Bruins.  Fun fact:  each year, there is a minimum of 3 Division leading teams that fail to win the Cup.

 

Furthermore, out of any team that could be considered to be a Cup contender, none of them have the cap space to add a $10 mil player without doing major subtraction(s) to their team to be able to add them.  Those subtractions could mess with a teams chemistry and weaken it. 

 

Moreover, after this season the only team that has up to $10 mil in cap space available and would be a playoff team if their need for an elite F was fulfilled and who could possibly add such a player without subtracting anyone happens to be the Habs.  Feel free to name another team that could add him without losing significant pieces.  There are none - and they already have elite F's who are signed long term.  

 

As per your Q, for the right team yes I would give up some $.  Why?  Because your wealth is not exclusive to the amount you are paid.   i.e. intelligent investments can increase your wealth.  However, the $ a player is paid can't buy a Cup victory.  

 

Would you rather make $59.5 mil and win Cups, or make $70 mil and never win a Cup?  Its not like little kids playing pond hockey dream about growing up and making $70 mil in their final UFA contract.  

 

There are teams that are perceived to be heavy-duty contenders, and then there’s other teams. 

 

Elite UFAs will sometimes take a discount to be among the former. 

 

The Habs are miles away from being a contender, so Nylander is 99.9% unlikely to take a discount to sign here even if he were available. He’d be much smarter, if winning a Cup is the goal, to take a discount to stay on the Leafs.

 

 

[IN THE HEARTS OF MEN]

Monahan  

44 games missed in 9 seasons with Calgary (17 in final season)

57 games missed with Montreal in 1 season trying to play with a broken foot.

 

this injury prone talk is so over played.

Hes a horse who messed a hip and broke a foot and is clearly back in business. we should re-sign this guy, provided its a reasonable AAV. he fits in well and has so much value over the next 4 to 5 seasons insulating Dach Suzuki and the kids.

if he returns to his average games played is the risk im willing to take. if hes injured he goes on LTIR.

[alfredoh2009]

5 hours ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

 

Are you saying Monahan's current deal of 1.9M is too rich?  

 

Stupid me, I forgot to check Cap friendly, I though he was still under the last contract. I still think he can be resigned to a cap similar to Dvorak's (around $4.5M/yr)

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

3 minutes ago, alfredoh2009 said:

 

Stupid me, I forgot to check Cap friendly, I though he was still under the last contract. I still think he can be resigned to a cap similar to Dvorak's (around $4.5M/yr)

 

That's what I thought, thanks for clarifying. I agree that he will likely get something similar to Dvorak if he continues to have a good year and stays healthy should the Habs opt to resign him. On the open market he could get more but I think he likes Montreal.  

[alfredoh2009]

5 hours ago, GHT120 said:

I do not believe that "options" are allowed ... contracts are for the term specified ... of course in one sense EVERY contract has an "option to re-sign", it just applies to the entire league.

 

could not find it in the NHL CBA, and searching I found out they were eliminated to prevent cap circumvention. It used to be:

Quote

[... from ChatGPT...]

In the context of NHL player contracts, when a contract has "options," it typically means that the contract includes certain clauses or provisions that give one or both parties (the player and the team) some degree of flexibility or choice regarding the contract's terms. These options can take various forms and can be beneficial for both the player and the team, depending on the specific provisions.

Here are a few common types of options that might be included in NHL player contracts:

1. **Player Options**: A player option allows the player to make a decision about their contract. For example, a player might have a one-year contract with a player option for an additional year. If the player decides to exercise the option, the contract extends for another year. If they don't, they become a free agent.

2. **Team Options**: Team options work similarly to player options but are controlled by the team. If a team has a contract with a team option, they can choose to renew the player's contract for an additional period if they want to. If not, the player might become a free agent or continue on the original terms.

[...]

 

[IN THE HEARTS OF MEN]

Monahan will get more than 5.85 million a year if he can remain healthy this year. He is a very good hockey player 

[Sir_Boagalott]

On 10/31/2023 at 11:46 AM, hab29RETIRED said:

Agreed. If Monty didn’t have the season he did, we may have been able to draft Bedard. 
As far as injuries for, despite all the injuries - we were a bad team. Slafkovsky is healthy this year and better than his injured year, but is pointless. The significant injury losses in my opinion were to Caufield, Dach (same as this year), Guhle, Monohan (but I think that should have been expected given his history - had he been healthy he would probably have been traded), and Edmondson (would also have been traded).

 

The Caufield injury hurt our chances of having a 40 or potentially even 50 goal scorer, more than it did of us making the playoffs. Buffalo and Ottawa had better offensive players than us (and more of them), and still missed the playoffs.
 

Buffalo had a 47 goal scorer, three 30+ goal scorers, a 28 goal scorer and  6 players with over 10 goals. They had a 94 point guy, and a players with over 80 and 70 points. They have two young studs on the blue line (Dahlin scored 15 goals), and they still missed the playoffs- mainly because of crap goaltending, and because we are in the toughest division in the NHL.

 

Ottawa had 3 thirty goal players and three 20 goal players, and had 90, 80 and 70 point players. They were also hot with injuries and got mediocre goaltending.

 

Even if we were healthy we don’t stack up to them. Even if we are healthy we don’t stack up to either of them this year either - over a FULL season. Not yet anyways.

 

Detroit is also better this year and we’re better last year as well.

 

if we didn’t have the injuries to our veteran D’s I doubt we would have been much better, and the number of young D we had, probably would not have gotten a chance to show their potential.

 

Injuries to Dvorak, Armia, Gallagher are “meh” injuries, because even when healthy they really aren’t impact players. Armia typically has 1 in 5 decent games and Gallagher isn’t the pre contract extension Gallagher. Dvorak will never be anything more than a wasted 1st and 2nd pick. Without those injuries, guys like RHP dont get a chance that they did.

 

I think it’s delusional to think we could have made the playoffs if we were healthy last year. At best we would have finished 7th (ahead of Phoenix and Philly), or 8th (potentially ahead of Washington - who were also ravaged by injuries), instead of 5th for the draft position. Without Monty’s strong play we were either 4th or third worst.

 

this year, I’m liking the effort and enjoying the entertainment value, and finally being optimistic that we are moving in the right direction. But we are NOT making the playoffs. Next year we MAY be a bubble team, The potential addition of Reinbacher for the last 20 games isn’t going to help us make the playoffs. We would be getting a 19 year old rookie, not Larry Robinson or Chris Chelios in their prime to help us. Do you really think we will finish ahead of Toronto, Boston, Tampa, and Florida (last years playoff teams). I will be shocked if don’t finish worst than 7th in our division - although I’m expecting us to finish 8th.

 

looking at the standings today we are better than Edmonton. Do you think that’s going to hold by the end of the season?

 

You make good points about those other non playoff teams.  However, I never said the Habs were better than them or anything about playoffs last year.  I said they could have been up closer to them and possibly above some of them.  Those teams had injuries too so they might have been able to take Florida's 92 pts playoff spot from them.   The points needed last year was low.  

 

Also, there is a slight flaw in your logic.  ex:  if Tampa and the Leafs had 2 more points right now the Habs would be 5th in their division.  However, they'd still be in 8th place.  Their division is the strongest so 0 wildcard teams in the other division.  They don't need to be top 4 in their division, being top 5 should do it.  

 

Who doesn't know that any game now Gally will have his perennial injury and the Habs will instantly get better because we'll get to see Roy or Beck for an extended period.  Savard will be gone at the deadline to make permanent room for Reinbacher.  Plus, like I keep saying they should bring up Mailloux or Norlinder asap to increase their PP so they can get  even more points right now before those other improvements happen.  

 

Remember how RHP came up last year and went on a serious tear?  The same will likely repeat this year but with another player and possibly more than 1.  They could have up to 4 players that do similar.  With the exclusion of Dach, depending on who else gets injured there is a overly decent chance those 4 prospects put up way more points than the players that are out.   

 

 

 

 

[dlbalr]

8 hours ago, Sir_Boagalott said:

Who doesn't know that any game now Gally will have his perennial injury and the Habs will instantly get better because we'll get to see Roy or Beck for an extended period.  Savard will be gone at the deadline to make permanent room for Reinbacher.  Plus, like I keep saying they should bring up Mailloux or Norlinder asap to increase their PP so they can get  even more points right now before those other improvements happen.  

 

The Habs aren't close to being in the type of emergency situation required to call up Beck.  Next up on the recall list from Laval is probably Andersson.

 

As for the d-men, Mailloux is struggling considerably defensively in the minors so calling him up is asking for trouble; whatever they'd gain on the power play would be given back and then some at five-on-five.  Norlinder, meanwhile, has turned back into the Norlinder of last year and is very quiet offensively.

 

This organization has gotten itself into trouble by rushing youngsters.  For once, it'd be great to let the prospects actually have proper development time at lower levels rather than being thrown to the fire too early.