2024-25 NHL discussion thread

[Prime Minister Koivu]

1 hour ago, TurdBurglar said:

100% there will always be a market.  As @GHT120 is pointing out, if he hits free agency, he will likely have to decide between money or contending. 

 

As for Montreal offering Price a $10.5m contract, it was under the same management that signed Gallagher to $6.5m while he was declining and and unproven Drouin to $5m, amongst other questionable contracts. 

Ah sorry friend I missed that point and I agree 100%.
 

Does he want money or the cup?

 

He just seems so adamant about being the highest paid, because he is their best player. 
 

Let’s see where negotiations go as things get closer to trade deadline 

[dlbalr]

2 hours ago, tomh009 said:

It's also possible that he really doesn't want to sign with the Rangers for some reason, and that's why he rejected their offer.

 

Sounds like he wants to stay but he feels he's more important than Panarin and thus should make more than the $11.643M (I think that's his cap hit) Panarin does.

[Commandant]

4 hours ago, GHT120 said:

*** IF *** he goes to free agency, the question will be how important winning is to him ... many/most contenders would have difficulty fitting THAT much money under the cap next season, and/or do not need a goaltender (or would be able to move their current goaltender to make room for Igor).

 

On a lower cap Florida is able to give 10.5 to Bobrovsky *who isnt as good as Shesterkin* and win one cup and make another final and win a presidents trophy in the last three years.

 

Seems to me that 11.6 wouldnt be a hindrance to building a winning team.

[GHT120]

27 minutes ago, Commandant said:

 

On a lower cap Florida is able to give 10.5 to Bobrovsky *who isnt as good as Shesterkin* and win one cup and make another final and win a presidents trophy in the last three years.

 

Seems to me that 11.6 wouldnt be a hindrance to building a winning team.

After signing Bob the Goalie to his current contract, the Panthers then built the team around him that four seasons later made the Finals ... I was referring to existing contenders not likely having the ability to extend/sign him now or as a UFA ... if he is willing to extend/sign with a team that will spend several seasons building to contender status that is a different circumstance ... admittedly made easier given the expected increases in the cap.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

I dunno. The guy is a top-5 goalie. If we were talking about a top-5 forward or defenceman, nobody would be horrified at paying up. 

 

I suppose I’m old fashioned…I’ve never really understood the logic that says goalies shouldn’t get the big bucks. G is arguably the most important position in the sport. If you have a truly elite player, at G or at any position, really, just pay up and move along. Where you go wrong is in paying a Darnell Nurse like an elite player, or a third-liner like a first-liner (cough - Gallagher), etc.

[TurdBurglar]

5 hours ago, The Chicoutimi Cucumber said:

I dunno. The guy is a top-5 goalie. If we were talking about a top-5 forward or defenceman, nobody would be horrified at paying up. 

 

I suppose I’m old fashioned…I’ve never really understood the logic that says goalies shouldn’t get the big bucks. G is arguably the most important position in the sport. If you have a truly elite player, at G or at any position, really, just pay up and move along. Where you go wrong is in paying a Darnell Nurse like an elite player, or a third-liner like a first-liner (cough - Gallagher), etc.

I'm pretty sure the goalie salary logic comes down to games played.  Forwards and defencemen are expected to play every game, barring injury of course, while goalies are only expected to play about 2/3 to 3/4 of the season.  The price per game between a top goalie and a top skater are usually fairly close.  McDavid is about $152k per game where Price at 60 games is about $175k per game.  These numbers are based off of AAV, not actual salary.

[tomh009]

49 minutes ago, TurdBurglar said:

I'm pretty sure the goalie salary logic comes down to games played.  Forwards and defencemen are expected to play every game, barring injury of course, while goalies are only expected to play about 2/3 to 3/4 of the season.  The price per game between a top goalie and a top skater are usually fairly close.  McDavid is about $152k per game where Price at 60 games is about $175k per game.  These numbers are based off of AAV, not actual salary.

But if you look at minutes played, a top goalie will play 75% of the total minutes over the season, whereas it's a rare forward that would play even 35% of the total.

[Prime Minister Koivu]

I haven’t followed other teams at all this season so I had no idea about this. 
 

What is going on?!?

[TurdBurglar]

46 minutes ago, tomh009 said:

But if you look at minutes played, a top goalie will play 75% of the total minutes over the season, whereas it's a rare forward that would play even 35% of the total.

Minutes played is misleading.  While a skater is on the ice they are expected to be actively into the play.  While a goalie is on the ice, roughly half the time they aren't expected to be actively playing.  Paying attention, yes, but not actively into the play. 

 

As for the 75% of the total minutes, if they are only expected to be actively in the play about 50% for the time, that 75% goes way down to about 37%.  It's also the equivalent of just over 61 games.  Only 2 goalies broke that mark last season, 5 the season before.  Where as skaters just need to break 22.5 minutes a game to pass that, something 35 skaters did last season.  82 skaters played over 35% of total minutes last season as well, so 35% isn't that rare.

[Peter Puck]

2 hours ago, TurdBurglar said:

Minutes played is misleading.  While a skater is on the ice they are expected to be actively into the play.  While a goalie is on the ice, roughly half the time they aren't expected to be actively playing.  Paying attention, yes, but not actively into the play. 

 

As for the 75% of the total minutes, if they are only expected to be actively in the play about 50% for the time, that 75% goes way down to about 37%.  It's also the equivalent of just over 61 games.  Only 2 goalies broke that mark last season, 5 the season before.  Where as skaters just need to break 22.5 minutes a game to pass that, something 35 skaters did last season.  82 skaters played over 35% of total minutes last season as well, so 35% isn't that rare.

But pretty much every time a goalie is actively involved in the play is a scoring chance.  Most other players go long stretches game without being involved in a scoring chance.  A goalie can expect to face 30 shots.  Any other player can expect to be involved in about 10 shots a game (counting both ends).

 

 

[TurdBurglar]

30 minutes ago, Peter Puck said:

But pretty much every time a goalie is actively involved in the play is a scoring chance.  Most other players go long stretches game without being involved in a scoring chance.  A goalie can expect to face 30 shots.  Any other player can expect to be involved in about 10 shots a game (counting both ends).

 

 

If a goalie is actively involved in the play, all players on the ice, except the opposing goalie are involved as well.  The goalie isn’t actively in the play when the puck is at the other end of the ice, but all skaters on the ice are still actively involved.  Just because the skaters aren’t touching the puck, doesn’t mean they aren’t involved.  

[Commandant]

Peter and Tom are right in that despite fewer games played, goalies play more minutes and make more meaningful plays than any other position.

 

that said i still think we are arguing the wrong things.

 

Wins/losses.  No single player is more important.  Even a forward like McDavid cant make plays without other forwards/defence, but weve all seen goalies steal games.  Similarly if a forward has a bad night, the team can still win if others pick it up.  A goalie letting in bad goals likely sinks your team.

 

For some reason, in baseball we never hear fans say dumb things like pitchers only start 1/5 games and only play the defensive side and dont hit so they should get paid less than position players.  But in hockey we say these kinds of things when goalies get paid.

[Butterface]

Goalies are important to a team’s success.

Shot blocking Dmen are too.

Shutdown Centers also.

It is hard to measure the dollar value of some positions.

At this moment in time who would I be coming to a Habs game to watch ?

Who would I come to watch in a Rangers game ? 
Not the goalie, not the shot blocking Dman and not the Shutdown center.

 

I’m there for the goals. The big hits. Maybe a melee.

 

Sure it’s nice to see a block in the late stages of a close game or a power play. It’s nice to see a great save on an otherwise obvious goal. But I’m getting out of my seat for a Hutson head fake, long skate from his blue line weaving and turning through opposing players. I’m there to see Xhekaj put a player through the boards or cave in an opposing players face. Definitely for a Cole Caufield slap shot into the near side top corner from an outrageous angle. I want to watch Slaf use his body to impose his will in the offensive zone then drive to the net with two guys hanging off him and score.

 

Superstar goalies deserve a good payday as do defensive Dmen, Two-way centres and Tough guys.

 

But there ain’t no way they should be getting Bedard, McDavid, Matthews, Marner, Nylander, Panarin, Crosby, Malkin, Ovi, Kucherov, Tkachuk, Makar, MacKinnon, Draisaitl money.

 

Goalies should be 10% of a salary cap as a superstar.

Star players like the above list more like 12-15% of Cap.

 

As soon as these players jump out over these percentages it weakens the teams ability to compete with the supporting cast.

 

The whole thing is a balance.

 

Great teams that have had playoff success rarely have decent RFAs that are being paid well below their value. They have not had high draft picks to sprinkle into the line up on low entry level contracts. Thus these teams struggle carrying heavy $$$ contracts at a few positions and balance has been wrecked. Toronto and Edmonton are prime examples. Strong focus on goal scoring stars taking huge percentages of the cap and not being able to spend for balance defensively. Edmonton somewhat corrected for that and made it to the finals and Toronto has improved defensively due to salary cap growth this year. They even tried to push out Tavares by stripping his captaincy hoping to embarrass him into asking for a trade to open more cap.

 

Shesterkin (top 5 goalie) is worth just under 9 million. If in 8 years you think the cap will be higher by a lot and you still think he will be a top 10 goalie…. Work out the math and give him more.

 

So for next 8 seasons NHL Cap:

 

   - $92 million

   - $96 million

   - $100 million

   - $104 million

   - $108.2 million

   - $112.5 million

   - $117 million

   - $122 million

 

This gives him an average of 10.65 million over next 8 years.

 

That is where his contract should be.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[Butterface]

Heard talk about line changes.

 

Read they should consider putting Heineman on top line and put Slafkovsky on second line to maybe help jumpstart Dach and Newhook.

 

I'm all for that.

 

if we don’t get secondary scoring soon we will be too far behind the pack.

 

 

 

 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

Perhaps but we don't want to mess up the 1st line either. 

 

I would rather just put Heineman on the 2nd line. He has the wheels to keep up with those guys plus he has an excellent shot. 

[JoeLassister]

Heineman's release for his wrist shot is top tier level. I knew he had a good wrister, but that good ?!?  I was quite impressed in last shootout.

[tomh009]

47 minutes ago, Butterface said:

Read they should consider putting Heineman on top line and put Slafkovsky on second line to maybe help jumpstart Dach and Newhook.

I don't think Armia is the problem on the second line. You look at what he was able to do with Newhook and Gallagher, and it's better than what the line is doing now. Put Slafkovsky there, you mess up the first line, and the second one still might not work.

[Helmethead]

7 hours ago, JoeLassister said:

Heineman's release for his wrist shot is top tier level. I knew he had a good wrister, but that good ?!?  I was quite impressed in last shootout.

You should’ve seen how everyone on the bench reacted 😳

[Butterface]

 

8 hours ago, tomh009 said:

I don't think Armia is the problem on the second line. You look at what he was able to do with Newhook and Gallagher, and it's better than what the line is doing now. Put Slafkovsky there, you mess up the first line, and the second one still might not work.

I did not say Armia was the problem. I think that line is not operating well as a whole and something needs to change. That switch seemed to be the simplest solution.

Should we fall behind in the Rangers game and that 2nd line has not produced, we should look to mix things up. If not then, when ?

You can’t sit around and do nothing. Armia is not really part of the future. He is gone by deadline…. for a bag of pucks.

 

 

[Butterface]

Slafkovsky out at least a week. Line changes will happen regardless.

[The Chicoutimi Cucumber]

On 10/19/2024 at 2:51 PM, Prime Minister Koivu said:

I haven’t followed other teams at all this season so I had no idea about this. 
 

What is going on?!?

 

It is hard to understand. He claimed he had an injury through the second half of last season and into the playoffs, but Tocchet notably gave the strong impression that he didn't think that was a justification for his performance. In the playoffs, he was absolutely terrible. And now 3 points in 6 games.

 

Local commentators are trying to make the best of it, saying he's had some good shifts, etc. The dilemma with him is - is he a 'Goldilocks' player, someone who dominates when everything is just right, but tends to wilt if it isn't? I wouldn't have asked this question until last season, when he had this long list of excuses (contract negotiations...rotating wingers...mild [?] injury). This season, those excuses are removed and he's still mediocre. No wonder Canucks fans are wringing their hands a bit over their $11.5 million golden boy (or Goldilocks). 

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

Shea Theodore has resigned with Vegas. 

 

Golden Knights sign Shea Theodore to seven-year, $51.975M contract extension

[GHT120]

1 hour ago, Habs Fan in Edmonton said:

Shea Theodore has resigned with Vegas. 

 

Golden Knights sign Shea Theodore to seven-year, $51.975M contract extension

Seems like a reasonable AAV ... he is only 29 and it will decline as a percentage of the cap ceiling as he ages.

[Habs Fan in Edmonton]

1 hour ago, GHT120 said:

Seems like a reasonable AAV ... he is only 29 and it will decline as a percentage of the cap ceiling as he ages.

 

Yes, very reasonable. He would have got at least that as a UFA. Good signing by Vegas. 

[tomh009]

1 hour ago, GHT120 said:

Seems like a reasonable AAV ... he is only 29 and it will decline as a percentage of the cap ceiling as he ages.

So, the contract will go to age 37. The big questions are how much of a downslope he will have and whether he can still play 60+ games as he approaches 35, regardless of cap percentage.